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   Inflation and the investing week ahead |
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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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               Little Things
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               It’s not always the big hurdles that trip up an economy or shift a central bank’s thinking – more often, it’s a change measured in pennies.
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                        🔍 The focus this week: Inflation and expectations
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🗞️ The consumer price index (CPI) tends to grab the headlines, but when it comes to inflation gauges, the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) favored the personal consumption expenditures report forever. And that’s because the PCE, as it’s known, covers a broader range of items and actually adjusts to how folks spend – for example, when they choose a substitute because a price has gone up. It also factors in data acquired by surveying businesses. So it’s more useful than the ol’ CPI, which is a pure-and-simple record of the cost of a set basket of goods.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="doit9" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🏷️ The PCE’s all-items inflation rate peaked at 7.2% in 2022 but has hovered between 2% and 3% since. Economists expect September’s pace to sit at 2.8%, up from August’s 2.7%. That’s the bad news. The good news, however, is that they expect the core measure – which strips out volatile stuff like food and energy to give a better idea of underlying price pressures – to dip to 2.8% from 2.9%.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="dlgg2" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🏷️ Still, inflation’s stuck above the Fed’s 2% target, and more importantly, people are starting to expect that it will continue to linger. And that’s a problem. When people and businesses anticipate higher prices, they act accordingly – asking for bigger wages, raising prices earlier, and rushing to buy things before costs increase. All of that can turn inflation into a self-fulfilling cycle.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="3lijm" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        🏷️ That’s why traders will also be watching the US consumer sentiment report (due Friday, too), which includes closely watched inflation expectations. If those jump or inflation runs hotter than forecast, the Fed just might rethink its rate-cutting game plan.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="2t0rf" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        👉 The central bank has lowered interest rates twice this year in response to a softening labor market, and traders are betting on another cut next week. But any hint that inflation might be picking up speed would complicate those plans, forcing policymakers to weigh the trade-off between supporting the job market with lower borrowing costs and reigniting price pressures as a consequence.
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                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
                       <ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
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                         <b>
                          Monday:
                         </b>
                         China manufacturing PMI (November), US ISM manufacturing index (November).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="tvvo" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday:
                         </b>
                         Eurozone inflation (November), eurozone unemployment (October).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         CrowdStrike.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="9o2i8" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday:
                         </b>
                         China services PMI (November), US industrial production, US ISM services index (November).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Salesforce, Snowflake.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="erj1a" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday:
                         </b>
                         Eurozone retail sales (October).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="892i7" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday:
                         </b>
                         US personal consumption expenditures index (September), US personal income and outlays (September), US inflation expectations (December), US consumer sentiment (December).
                        </li>
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                     <img alt="Goodfin at Modern Investor Summit" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FMIS25-1000x250-EmailBanner-AJF.original.png%253Ffit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D768%2526s%253Da6e380173f42f547460b0024c3a2b286/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjQ1NDM4MTMuMzkzOTA2OH0:1vPqS5:96NXQmOzttGBPO_BVOPWlvOS8Lq_2l3g0pgTg-seWgI" width="100%"/>
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                    <b>
                     Private markets used to be the kind of members-only club where the velvet rope didn’t just stay closed – it judged you for even looking at it.
                    </b>
                   </h4>
                   <p data-block-key="5jiln" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                    But those days are numbered. And Anna Joo Fee is one of the reasons why.
                    <br/>
                    <br/>
                    She’s the founder &amp; CEO of
                    <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                     Goodfin
                    </a>
                    , an AI-native platform serving up curated, top-notch private market deals to regular investors who are tired of being told to “come back when you’re ultra-wealthy”.
                    <br/>
                    <br/>
                    So, if you’re curious
                    <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                     how AI is shaking up private markets
                    </a>
                    – and how you can get in early instead of hearing about it after everyone else has made their money, Anna's got you.
                    <br/>
                    <br/>
                    Join her at
                    <a style="color: #204CE9; color: rgba(32, 76, 233, 1); font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
                     our Modern Investor Summit and get the inside track
                    </a>
                    .
                   </p>
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                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6z208" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         🇺🇸 The US
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="72f6b" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
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                        Alphabet got an AI vote of confidence, with reports suggesting that Meta might spend billions on Google’s chips, rather than Nvidia’s, starting in 2027. The move would help Meta sidestep Nvidia’s chip bottlenecks, while also boosting Alphabet’s growing AI infrastructure business. Pair that with existing orders from AI firm Anthropic, and Alphabet’s position in the chip race looks even stronger. Still, some investors are wary about a string of circular AI investments that muddy the demand picture and raise bubble concerns.
                       </p>
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                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="1vjvh" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        Sandisk’s hot streak has just landed it in the S&amp;P 500, mere months after being spun off from Western Digital. The memory chipmaker has seen its stock rise nearly 400% since February, on a wave of AI-fueled demand. Now, joining the S&amp;P 500 is more than just symbolic – it means a flood of stock demand from index-tracking funds. And that’s great news for Sandisk, but less good for investors who look to the index for a diverse stock play: the move will just make the already tech-heavy benchmark even more concentrated.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="cbok4" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
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                        🇬🇧
                        <b>
                         The UK
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6itvq" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="2mtrk" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The British government unveiled a new budget that found a wily way to collect more money without calling it a tax hike – essentially freezing income brackets through 2031. The move means more earners will be nudged into higher bands over time as their pay rises, which will let the country rake in an extra £8 billion ($11 billion) by the end of the decade. That, plus new levies on gambling, dividends, and property, will help the Treasury pocket £26 billion more by 2029, easily covering the £11 billion in new spending and building a hefty financial buffer, all without spooking markets.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="ej3sc" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="akomu" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         🇨🇳 China
                        </b>
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="cqbfk" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        Alibaba’s new Qwen AI app hit over ten million downloads in its first week out of the gate – making it one of China’s fastest-growing AI tools. And investors loved it: they sent the stock up nearly 5%. The app is Alibaba’s homegrown answer to ChatGPT – a kind of one-stop assistant for everything from online shopping to travel bookings. Alibaba’s been leaning hard on its cloud and AI units to make up for its sluggish ecommerce arm. But in a climate of heavy AI investment and shaky returns, real-world adoption like this is what investors really want to see.
                       </p>
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