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   DealBook: “Massive”
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   Also, Trump’s campaign to reshape Big Food
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             July 23, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. We have a deal. The Trump administration announced a trade agreement with Japan calling for 15 percent tariffs on imports. We’ve got all of the details below, though there is still a lot to unpack. The big question is whether the deal will serve as a model for other countries.
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          We also examine the pressure on the food industry coming from the White House, exemplified by Coca-Cola’s move to offer a version of its iconic drink with cane sugar in the U.S. And take a look at Mohamed El-Erian’s comment about what Jay Powell should do in the face of criticism from the president. What do you think? (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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             Global stocks are gaining after President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan.
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            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Kenny Holston/The New York Times
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          A trade deal breakthrough
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Stocks in Asia and Europe are rallying this morning after President Trump announced a
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          “massive” trade deal
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          with Japan that investors hope could serve as a base line for other big countries before next week’s tariffs deadline.
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          The latest:
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         <span>
          Japan’s Nikkei climbed nearly 4 percent today, and shares in two of the country’s biggest automakers — Toyota and Honda — soared to double-digit gains. That said, investors are selling Japanese bonds on concerns that Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, could be forced to resign. He has
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          denied those reports
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          , which appeared in local news media.
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          Meanwhile, in Europe, Volkswagen and Mercedes notched big gains, too. S&amp;P 500 futures are also in the green, with the benchmark index a tick below a record (even as companies report that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          tariffs are dinging profits
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          .)
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          The bottom line:
         </span>
         <span>
          Japan’s U.S. exports, including those on cars, will be hit with a 15 percent levy. That’s below the 25 percent rate that Trump had previously threatened. But it also suggests that large trading partners will fall short of a much hoped-for outcome of persuading Trump’s negotiators to settle at around 10 percent. Trump has also announced agreements
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          with Indonesia
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         <span>
          and
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the Philippines
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          , setting a 19 percent tax on their U.S. imports.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          There’s more:
         </span>
         <span>
          As part of the deal, Japan has also agreed to import more rice.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Is 15 percent the new bar?
         </span>
         <span>
          Switzerland, the European Union and some Latin American countries could be next in line to reach deals, Kelly Ann Shaw, a former senior Trump administration trade adviser, told Bloomberg TV this morning. But she said it was unlikely that officials in Brussels could negotiate better terms than what Japan just got.
         </span>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Up next:
         </span>
         <span>
          Treasury Secretary
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Scott Bessent
         </a>
         <span>
          is scheduled to hold a new round of trade talks with China next week in Stockholm. A 90-day pause on some of Trump’s more onerous tariffs against the country expires on Aug. 12, and Bessent said yesterday that “we’ll be working out what is likely an extension.”
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          If anything, the recent framework deals provide much-needed clarity.
         </span>
         <span>
          Goldman Sachs now sees the overall baseline tariff rate on global imports at 15 percent, up from 10 percent. David Mericle, an economist at the bank, wrote in a research note yesterday that sectoral tariffs on heavy trucks, pharmaceuticals and aircraft will most likely come into effect next year.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And he warned that tariffs would ignite inflation and depress growth over the next three years.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="30">
           </td>
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          <td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Goldman Sachs is said to be seeking acquisitions.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Wall Street giant
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          has held takeover talks with Northern Trust
         </a>
         <span>
          — an asset manager that has also been the subject of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          buyout speculation from Bank of New York Mellon
         </a>
         <span>
          — and had other discussions with Cliffwater, a private debt specialist and asset manager, Semafor reports. Shares in Goldman have been trading near record highs, potentially giving the firm the ammunition for deals.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Elon Musk’s xAI is reportedly seeking up to $12 billion in more funding.
         </span>
         <span>
          Musk has
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          turned to Valor Equity Partners,
         </a>
         <span>
          an investment firm founded by a close ally, Antonio Gracias, to help raise the money, weeks after the artificial intelligence start-up landed $10 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal. It’s a sign of the high stakes and costs of competing with Google and Meta in A.I. Separately, Musk’s SpaceX has warned investors that the tech mogul
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          could return to politics
         </a>
         <span>
          , a move that has previously roiled shares in Tesla.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr aria-hidden="true">
           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
             <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D1053700%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20250723%2526stpe%253Ddefault/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTMyNzI4NzAuMzE0Njk4NX0:1ueYMg:a-QSPHP6OfO-Hhvh3KL9fe3fSnROUD1gZFwf6q41a_Q" style="max-width:96px;margin-bottom:7px"/>
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            <span style="text-align:center">
             <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin:0 auto">
              <tbody>
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                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Meme stock mania drives another eye-popping rally.
         </span>
         <span>
          Getting the attention this time is Kohl’s and Opendoor Technologies, whose stocks have been much discussed on social media forums by retail traders in recent days. Yesterday,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          roughly one billion shares
         </a>
         <span>
          in Opendoor traded hands. But it is lower in premarket trading, a reminder of how tumultuous these swings can be. That said, shares in Krispy Kreme and GoPro are
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          popping this morning
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Coke’s MAHA move
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It’s a tricky moment for Big Food.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The industry faces political and market pressures, including from the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) agenda of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the Ozempic weight-loss drug craze eating into the country’s snacking habit.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Under MAHA pressure, Coca-Cola said yesterday that this fall it would offer U.S. consumers Coke made with cane sugar instead of high-fructose corn syrup, Danielle Kaye reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The company appears to be bending to Trump and Kennedy.
         </span>
         <span>
          “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          It’s just better
         </a>
         <span>
          ,” Trump,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a Diet Coke fan
         </a>
         <span>
          , wrote of cane sugar last week in a social media post in which he also said he was talking to the company about making the switch. Kennedy has pushed for the removal of high-fructose corn syrup, which is commonly used in processed foods, from American diets, and has called sugar “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          poison
         </a>
         <span>
          .” (While Coca-Cola said it would introduce a cane sugar Coke product, the company is unlikely to eliminate high-fructose corn syrup from its products entirely.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Is it healthier?
         </span>
         <span>
          Nutritionists have questioned the health benefits of replacing corn syrup. “What they’re going after are side-like things in the food that aren’t really going to impact us, or will impact us adversely,” Barry Popkin, a professor of nutrition at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health, told DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          James Quincey, Coca-Cola’s C.E.O., told analysts that bringing a cane sugar version of Coke to Americans reflected “consumer interest in differentiated experiences.” (The company makes Mexican Coke with cane sugar, but it’s typically pricier.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But there’s a twist: sugar imports.
         </span>
         <span>
          The U.S.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          doesn’t produce enough sugar
         </a>
         <span>
          to meet domestic demand, suggesting that Coca-Cola would have to rely on imports, potentially from countries facing Trump’s tariffs. And the company’s latest embrace of cane sugar could hurt the country’s corn producers.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Will the Trump administration reshape Big Food?
         </span>
         <span>
          PepsiCo on Monday said that it
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          would soon introduce a prebiotic version
         </a>
         <span>
          of its soda, in a nod to growing interest from health-conscious consumers.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Kennedy has also waged a war on synthetic food dyes, putting Jell-O snacks, Kool-Aid drinks and Lucky Charms cereals in an effort to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          get rid of synthetic dyes
         </a>
         <span>
          by the end of 2027.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The administration has its thumb on the scale of food giants.
         </span>
         <span>
          But Popkin stressed that none of the changes so far — whether it’s moving away from corn syrup or synthetic dyes — are “major costs” to these companies. “The only thing that will have an impact on industry is the ultraprocessed foods,” he added.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “If Chair Powell’s objective is to safeguard the Fed’s operational autonomy (which I deem vital), then he should resign.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          Mohamed El-Erian
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          , the economist and frequent critic of the central bank’s interest rate policy, writes on X that Jay Powell should step down to preserve the Fed’s independence amid President Trump’s repeated attacks on the Fed chair and the institution’s hold-steady interest rate policy. That said, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has called for a wide-ranging internal investigation into the Fed, said yesterday he saw
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          no need for Powell to “step down right now
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          .”
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="The seal of the National Labor Relations Board is seen at their headquarters in Washington." class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F07%252F23%252Fmultimedia%252F23db-nlrb-vzkg%252F23db-nlrb-vzkg-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTMyNzI4NzAuMzE1MDk5N30:1ueYMg:IRg0yz0vOQl1KACkozIr8yMxx0HrLjDmfXQs3QQNdW0" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              Lacking a quorum, the National Labor Relations Board has been largely idle for much of President Trump’s second term.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Andrew Kelly/Reuters
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Trump’s moves at a key labor watchdog
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          For most of the year, the National Labor Relations Board has been unable to perform many of its functions as a key arbiter on labor disputes.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          In his first week in office in January,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          President Trump fired
         </a>
         <span>
          a Democratic member of the board, depriving the independent agency of the three-member quorum needed to issue decisions, including those around collective bargaining and whether companies must recognize union votes.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The agency is on track to be up and running again:
         </span>
         <span>
          Trump has now named two new picks for the board. A reconstituted agency could have big implications for employers as the president seems determined to roll back Biden era protections for workers.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A recap:
         </span>
         <span>
          Gwynne Wilcox, a Democratic board member who was confirmed by the Senate in September 2023 to a second five-year term, was dismissed in January. She challenged her removal, arguing in a lawsuit that it violated federal law, which allows for removal of board members only in instances of “neglect of duty or malfeasance.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          A federal judge
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          ordered her to be reinstated
         </a>
         <span>
          . But in a win for Trump, the Supreme Court later blocked that decision, putting her fate in limbo.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The board has been largely stagnant.
         </span>
         <span>
          The agency has issued six published decisions since Inauguration Day, compared with 60 during the same six-month period in 2024,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          according to Bloomberg Law
         </a>
         <span>
          . The agency hasn’t been completely idle; it has handled some unfair labor practice cases and union election petitions.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Who are Trump’s new choices?
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Scott Mayer
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                is chief labor counsel at Boeing, a position he held during the company’s strike last year that temporarily
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                halted production at key plants
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . His resume is dotted with stints at InterContinental and Aramark and management-side law firms.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                James Murphy
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                has spent much of his career at the board, serving as chief counsel to multiple board members.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Key Biden era rulings could be in jeopardy.
         </span>
         <span>
          If the labor board reaches a quorum, it would be able to start issuing decisions again. It would also have a Republican majority and potentially fulfill Trump’s goal of rolling back rules passed under the Biden administration that were widely seen as employee-friendly. Notable ones include the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Cemex framework
         </a>
         <span>
          that establishes rules for bargaining with unions, and a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          ban on so-called captive audience meetings
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
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                The Italian lender UniCredit has
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                dropped its bid
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                for Banco BPM, a rival, amid government opposition in Rome. Investors await its next move in another politically contested potential deal — growing its stake in Germany’s Commerzbank. (Bloomberg)
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                a Play for The Dallas Morning News
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                ” (NYT)
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                with news organizations as it seeks to bolster its artificial intelligence offerings. (Bloomberg)
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                amid geopolitical tensions” (FT)
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                Joe Budden offers some detailed insight into how his podcasting business is on track to
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                make $20 million this year
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                . (NYT)
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                “Burning Man Is
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                Burning Through Cash
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                ” (Bloomberg Businessweek)
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                Britain’s Supreme Court this morning overturned
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                , a former UBS and Citigroup banker who had served prison time after being accused of rigging the Libor benchmark interest rate. (FT)
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