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   Climate Forward: The problem with shipping gas to Europe
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             March 25, 2022
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             By
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              Somini Sengupta
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             Global Correspondent, Climate
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                  Pipes meant for the Nord Stream 2 project, a gas line that was halted becasue of Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
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                  Odd Andersen/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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             One four-syllable word has an outsize role in shaping our climate future.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Infrastructure.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Consider the infrastructure that got Europe hooked on Russian fuel. It was a 3,500-mile pipeline that began, in 1984, to carry gas from Siberia to West Germany, as my colleague Hiroko Tabuchi
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              wrote this week
             </a>
             . The C.I.A. warned against it, saying it would create a dangerous reliance on the Soviet Union. American oil companies, hoping for a cut of the profits, lobbied for it — and prevailed.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Now, 40 years later, President Biden has
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              proposed an infusion of American gas
             </a>
             to help Europe break free of Russian energy dependence.
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             That will be hard to deliver, as
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              my colleague Clifford Krauss explained
             </a>
             . But the proposition is presenting lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic with a crucial question: Will this wartime surge end up creating a new generation of infrastructure that locks Europe into the gas habit for longer?
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             Tucked into the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              White House announcement
             </a>
             is a crucial detail: The United States expects to more than double its gas sales to Europe, to 50 billion cubic meters, “until at least 2030.” That’s a lot of gas.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Expect fierce jockeying in the coming weeks, with profound repercussions for the world’s ability to avert climate catastrophe.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The American supplies would come in the form of liquefied natural gas, and that’s a particular kind of fossil fuel. Compared with piped gas, L.N.G. production generates
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              higher levels of carbon emissions
             </a>
             , though far less than coal.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Replacing Russian piped gas with L.N.G. right now isn’t necessarily a big climate problem. The worry is that, if new gas pipelines and terminals get built, they’ll be used for a long time, making it all but impossible to slow down global warming.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “I’m very worried our climate goals may be another victim of Russia’s aggression,” Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said this week in Paris at a meeting of energy ministers from around the world.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             That meeting, Birol said, was supposed to be devoted to a discussion of the global energy transition away from fossil fuels. Instead, it was punctuated with discussions about how to increase production of fossil fuels to help Europe wean itself from Russian energy. The agency has said
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              no new oil and gas fields should be developed
             </a>
             starting this year if the world is to avert the worst effects of climate change.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The Biden Administration is under additional scrutiny. It has been unable to enact major climate legislation. We’ll keep you posted on whether it succumbs to pressure to approve new gas production permits or green-light new gas export terminals. New fossil fuel infrastructure projects take years to build, they are expensive and they tend to get used for decades.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The U.S. energy secretary, Jennifer Granholm, tried to thread the needle. “There’s always concern about increasing infrastructure that would lock in problems related to greenhouse gas emissions,” she said in a response to a reporter’s question on Thursday at the Paris meeting. “There’s no doubt about that.”
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But she insisted, as she has since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began last month, that the administration wants the oil and gas industry to “ramp up production where and whenever they can right now,” even as it wants to transition to cleaner sources of energy that don’t come from fossil fuels.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The European Union has one of the world’s most ambitious climate targets: By law, it’s required to cut greenhouse gas emissions across the 27-nation bloc by 55 percent by 2030. Europe had counted on using gas to pivot away from coal and reach its climate goals long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The biggest share of that gas came from Russia.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Now, as the European Commission seeks to reduce Russian gas imports, it has proposed to ramp up renewable energy sources, to reduce energy demand by insulating leaky old buildings, to install heat pumps. All those things could very well hasten Europe’s transition to clean energy.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Renewables could replace two-thirds of Russian gas imports by 2025, one European think tank, the Regulatory Assistance Project, argued in an analysis this week. The rest could be replaced with gas other than from Russia
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              without building new gas infrastructure
             </a>
             .
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Europe’s quest to ditch Russian gas immediately is a tall order, though.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Most U.S. gas exports have buyers already under long-term contracts. American export terminals are shipping out all the gas they can. Some European countries have import terminals that can take in more L.N.G.,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              as the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies noted
             </a>
             in a recent study. Others don’t.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             If Europe builds more import terminals to take in liquefied natural gas, it could lock in reliance on gas for many more decades to come — and that gas infrastructure could risk becoming stranded assets in another 10 to 15 years.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Even before the war, L.N.G. import terminals were being expanded in Belgium and Poland, and a new one was approved in Greece. Since the invasion, Germany has approved two new terminals, as we
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              wrote recently in this newsletter
             </a>
             . The Netherlands recently
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              approved a new floating gas-import terminal
             </a>
             .
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Nikos Tsafos, an energy security specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington research organization, said that if Europe replaced piped gas from Russia with liquefied gas from somewhere else, it wouldn’t much affect its climate targets.
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             “There is fear of lock-in. But, in reality, if the L.N.G. merely displaces Russian gas, the climate impact will be trivial,” he argued. “Europe is still committed to phasing out gas use, more so now than before.”
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             Not so, the United States. It is poised to be the world’s largest gas exporter this year. Gas producers are bullish on growing the market. One industry analyst told
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Bloomberg
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             that U.S. gas suppliers ought to negotiate contracts with European buyers immediately.
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             Claire Healy, head of the Washington office of the climate research group, E3G, said the U.S. plan to bolster L.N.G. shipments “makes no sense,” considering the need to quickly stop new oil and gas production to avert the worst effects of climate change. “It has turned a short-term energy crunch into a long-term crutch for American oil and gas producers,” she said.
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                  The artist Mary Mattingly created “Swale,” a garden on a barge that docked at sites around New York City.
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                 <span class="css-hpkdsj esd8w5v3" style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Courtesy of the artist and Cloudfactory
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              Environmental art:
             </span>
             Over the past six months, more than a dozen exhibitions explicitly confronting climate change have been held
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              around the world
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              Climate volunteers:
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             A scientist in England asked for help transcribing rainfall records spanning three centuries. Thousands, stuck in lockdown,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              answered the call
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             .
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              Methane leaks:
             </span>
             Startlingly large amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, are leaking from wells and pipelines in New Mexico, according to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a new analysis
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             .
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              Putin’s climate envoy quits:
             </span>
             Anatoly B. Chubais reportedly resigned in
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              protest over the Russian invasion of Ukraine
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             .
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              Alarm in Australia:
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             A stretch of the Great Barrier Reef, off the country’s eastern coast, has been hit by
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a sixth mass bleaching event
             </a>
             .
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              A maritime mystery solved:
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             A shipwreck in the Gulf of Mexico has been identified and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the fate of its multiracial crew revealed
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             .
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               The Washington Post visualized the ways different climate policies could speed
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                Europe’s transition away from Russian gas
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               The World Bank has issued the world’s first wildlife conservation bond, raising $150 million to help
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                endangered black rhinos
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               in South Africa, according to Reuters.
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               “Climate smart” farming policies could
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                increase crop yields in Southern Africa
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               by up to 500 percent, according to a report covered by The Guardian.
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               Microplastic pollution has been
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                detected in human blood
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               for the first time, according to a study reported in The Guardian.
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