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Climate Forward: What Putin’s war could mean for fossil fuels
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March 4, 2022
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What Putin’s war could mean for fossil fuels
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How do you ensure energy security on a hotter planet? That’s the thorny new question that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents to many countries, most immediately in Europe.
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The leaders of the European Union are expected to announce a proposal next week that would “accelerate the clean energy transition and reduce permanently our dependence on imports of natural gas.” If it goes through, it could significantly blunt one of the Kremlin’s most formidable economic weapons: piped gas to heat and power the continent.
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It also raises an uncomfortable question: Why did it take a full-blown attack on civilians to speed up climate action?
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The 26-page E.U. draft proposal, seen by The New York Times, proposes to swiftly renovate old, leaky buildings to reduce energy demand, simplify regulations to attract investments in renewable energy, encourage more rooftop solar installations and produce more energy from biomass.
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At the moment, Russia supplies nearly 40 percent, on average, of the gas that European countries use for heat and electricity. For some countries, like Germany, that reliance is even higher, and that gives President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia outsize leverage in his war against Ukraine. It also makes it very hard for Europe (and the United States) to impose sanctions on Russia’s fossil fuel industry, the country’s main moneymaker.
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When I talk about gas, I mean what is generally referred to as natural gas, because, like coal, it is derived from nature. It would be more accurate to call it methane gas, because methane, a potent pollutant, is its main component.
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In the near term, according to the draft E.U. energy strategy, Europe is not giving up on gas. The plan proposes to increase the storage of gas, and, in order to reduce its reliance on piped gas from Russia, it proposes to diversify to liquefied natural gas, also a fossil fuel.
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The United States sends L.N.G. to Europe — a lot of it. So, any European transition away from Russian gas has major implications for American gas producers.
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By the end of this year, the United States is expected to have the world’s
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largest export capacity
</a>
for liquefied natural gas. The American oil and gas industry and its political champions have seized on the conflict in Ukraine to call for more production,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
as my colleague Hiroko Tabuchi wrote
</a>
, though that would take years to come online and do very little to bring down energy prices.
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If the major elements of the European proposal are carried out, Russia’s war in Ukraine could have a huge, albeit unwitting, consequence: It could hasten Europe’s transition away from fossil fuels.
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“The developments in the energy markets over the last months have underscored the necessity to accelerate the clean energy transition and reduce permanently our dependence on imports of natural gas,” the draft document states. “Diversifying supplies, frontloading renewable energy and improving energy efficiency is the best insurance against price shocks.”
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To reduce Europe’s reliance on Russia, lots of new infrastructure is being built to take in liquefied gas from the United States and elsewhere. In Europe, as my colleagues Liz Alderman and Stanley Reed told me recently, L.N.G. import terminals are already being expanded in Belgium and Poland; a new one was recently approved in Greece with European Union funding; Germany this week fast-tracked the
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
construction of two new
</a>
import terminals.
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In the United States, my colleague Clifford Krauss noted, a new L.N.G. export facility is scheduled to start operating in Calcasieu Pass, La., this year; expansions are underway in two Texas export facilities; and an additional 10 export projects are under consideration. Nearly a quarter of American L.N.G. exports went to Europe in 2021. Over the last few months, Europe has been the top destination for U.S. exports.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
So, could Europe survive without Russian gas next winter?
</p>
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A recent
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
analysis by Bruegel
</a>
, a think tank based in Brussels, suggests it could, but not without reducing demand, changing regulations and spending a lot more money. Some Europeans seem to be taking action to protect themselves. Electric heat pumps, one of the most cost-effective ways to
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
replace gas-fired boilers
</a>
, spread swiftly in Europe for the first time in 2021, though nowhere as fast as is necessary, as Jan Rosenow, a director at the Regulatory Assistance Project,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
explained in a Twitter thread
</a>
this week.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Britain, meanwhile, has said it intends to continue drilling in its part of the North Sea, but its secretary for business and energy, Kwasi Kwarteng,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
said this week
</a>
that his country’s energy security would ultimately have to come from renewables, which in Britain includes nuclear power.
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“It would be complete madness to turn off our domestic source of gas,” he said on Twitter. “But the long-term solution is obvious: Gas is more expensive than renewable energy, so we need to move away from gas.”
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From inside Ukraine came a poignant plea to pivot.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
“One of my hopes for the future reconstruction of Ukraine is that our government and our international partners will support only sustainable solutions and clean energy and don’t go back to the dependency on fossils,” a Ukrainian climate activist, Kostiantyn Krynytskyi, told me in an email.
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His organization, Ecoaction, was among several Ukrainian groups, joined by environmental groups from elsewhere, that
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
published an open letter
</a>
to the world’s importers of Russian oil and gas, including the United States, to “ban any import of fossil fuels from Russia and rapidly phase out all fossil fuels.”
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Continue reading the main story
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A MESSAGE FROM
<!-- -->
Walmart
</h3>
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<p style="font:700 20px/28px georgia,serif;color:#121212;margin:0 0 4px">
Walmart takes concrete action on climate change
</p>
<p style="font:16px/22px georgia,serif;color:#121212;margin:0 0 13px">
Building on 15 years of sustainability leadership, Walmart is on a journey towards regeneration that places nature and people at the center of their business. Since 2017, Walmart suppliers have avoided over 416 million tons of CO2e through Project Gigaton and powered an estimated 36% of their global electricity needs through renewable energy since 2020. Additionally, the retailer plans to protect, mange or restore over 50 million acres of land and 1 million square miles of ocean by 2030.
</p>
<p style="margin:0 0 17px">
<a style="font:700 10px/10px arial,sans-serif;text-transform:uppercase;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;color:#5a5a5a">
Learn more.
</a>
</p>
<a>
<img alt="Walmart Logo" height="35" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nytimes.com%252Fads%252Femail_logo%252Fclimate_fwd%252FWalmart_Logos_Lockup_vert_blu_rgb%2520copy%25202.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1nUZwD:y7TmI5Ssv3wyPaGxDyDqjxIvdPKGAbPRhS881PWeKuc" style="height:35px;width:35px" width="35"/>
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<img class="css-zh06no e1e3sevz0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F03%252F03%252Fus%252Fat-risk-biodiversity-map-promo-1646284314657%252Fat-risk-biodiversity-map-promo-1646284314657-articleLarge-v2.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1nUZwD:y7TmI5Ssv3wyPaGxDyDqjxIvdPKGAbPRhS881PWeKuc" style="display:block;width:100%;height:auto;padding-top:10px"/>
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</span>
<span class="css-eu0g1z esd8w5v3" style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:0;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Source: NatureServe | By Nadja Popovich/The New York Times
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Essential news
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
High risk of extinction:
</span>
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
This map shows
</a>
, in deepening red, the places in the lower 48 United States with high concentrations of imperiled plants and animals.
</p>
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What about Biden’s big plans?
</span>
War abroad and political obstacles at home seem to have
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
pushed U.S. climate action aside
</a>
.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
A global push to clean up plastic:
</span>
Delegates from 75 countries have agreed to begin writing a global treaty that would curb the
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
explosive growth of plastic pollution
</a>
.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
Before the invasion:
</span>
Foreign investors had been lining up to explore Ukraine for lithium, a metal that is
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
critical to electric car batteries
</a>
.
</p>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
They’re fed up:
</span>
A group of climate scientists is calling on colleagues to halt research and go on strike until political leaders
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
take action on global warming
</a>
.
</p>
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
An artist’s vision of the future:
</span>
At LAXART in Los Angeles, Josh Kline imagines an unmoored but romantic
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
life in a post-warming world
</a>
.
</p>
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
On tour, going nowhere:
</span>
How can theaters help prevent climate change? A British director and a Swiss playhouse have developed
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
a new model for taking productions on the road
</a>
.
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Other stuff we’re following
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Supreme Court climate skeptics could help
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decide the fate of the planet
</a>
, Slate writes.
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Amazon has positioned itself as a climate leader. But a report obtained by Reveal, an investigative news site, says the company is
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undercounting its carbon footprint
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.
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Steak is a quintessentially American food, The New York Times Style Magazine writes. So, what does it mean for Americans’ sense of self now that they’re
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eating less red meat
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?
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An analysis by The Guardian found that only 6 percent of
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pandemic recovery spending in Group of 20
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A Philadelphia couple wrote a children’s book to help parents have “
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the climate talk
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Chile has become the first country to issue
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bonds tied to sustainability goals
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A new species of amphibian has been found in the Peruvian Amazon, Mongabay writes. It’s
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a frog that looks like it’s made of chocolate
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.
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3 years ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
Climate Forward: What Putin’s war could mean for fossil fuels
Also: A map that shows imperiled biodiversity in the lower 48 states. View in browser|nytimes.com...