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DealBook: A bumpy bounceback
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April 10, 2025
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Good morning. Investors and foreign leaders are breathing a sigh of relief today after President Trump’s retreat on tariffs. But warning signs abound that trade tensions could still worsen. We break it down below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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Calm has returned to some parts of the market today after President Trump’s tariffs reprieve, but the uncertainty for business remains.
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Eric Lee/The New York Times
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After the about-face
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The relief rally has gone global, for now.
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Stocks in
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Asia
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and Europe
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have rebounded
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after President Trump’s
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drastic U-turn on tariffs
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. Turmoil in the bond markets has cooled, as investors hope that the president averted crashing the global economy into recession.
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But U.S. stock futures are in the red as uncertainty abounds. Businesses and investors have little visibility into the White House’s next moves, even as some corporate leaders take comfort in the markets’ role in prompting the reversal. (More on that below.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Where things stand:
</span>
<span>
Trump announced a 90-day pause for his most punishing reciprocal tariffs, instead imposing a blanket levy of 10 percent. Even so, the effective tariff rate on imports has increased by 21 percentage points since January, according to Citigroup economists, potentially reigniting inflation.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But Washington and Beijing are still imposing tit-for-tat tariffs — with Chinese import duties now at 125 percent. Businesses and governments are worried that the fight could destabilize global supply chains, drive up inflation and hurt growth, with some wondering
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
if China is a safer trade partner
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The latest:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
S&P 500 futures are lower, after the benchmark index jumped 9.5 percent yesterday in its
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
best one-day performance
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
since 2008. Goldman Sachs and others
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
lowered their odds for a U.S. recession
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
There’s extra focus on today’s Consumer Price Index report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Worth watching: Did Trump’s tariffs on the auto sector cause another jump in used car prices last month?
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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</td>
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</td>
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<td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-bottom:1px solid #dcdcdc">
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</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Bulls see reason to cheer this morning.
</span>
<span>
Many analysts note that the 10 percent tariff would be far less burdensome on companies and consumers. And prolonged market calm would help Trump pursue more tax cuts and deregulation.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Others say that the “Trump put” is alive and well.
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
</span>
<span>
(That’s shorthand for investors’ belief that the president is willing to reverse policies deemed detrimental to the economy.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“Uncertainty has gone up, and that can curb some investment and some spending,” Lee Ferridge, the head of macro strategy for North America at State Street Global Markets, told DealBook. But it won’t be enough to prompt a big downturn. “I think the talk about recession will prove extremely premature,” he added.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Ferridge notes that despite the steep sell-off in Treasury bonds and notes, the credit markets didn’t go haywire, unlike during the global financial crisis in 2008 and in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. “There were no levels of distress or anything like that with companies,” he said.
</span>
</p>
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<tbody>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
But big challenges persist.
</span>
<span>
The tariffs reprieve doesn’t remove the unpredictability hanging over businesses. Before Trump’s reversal yesterday,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year guidance
</a>
<span>
, while
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Walmart executives gingerly addressed
</a>
<span>
tariffs at an investor meeting.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The Fed has grown increasingly worried about falling consumer and business sentiment,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
minutes from the last meeting
</a>
<span>
of the central bank’s governors released yesterday showed. The Fed also signaled that it would refrain from cutting interest rates any time soon as it watches tariff fallout.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
For many, it’s hard to maintain any sort of confidence.
</span>
<span>
“
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Don’t chase this, don’t buy the dip
</a>
<span>
,” Andy Sieg, who heads Citigroup’s global wealth management team, told Bloomberg Television.
</span>
</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
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</td>
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<td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
House Republicans delay a vote on the budget bill.
</span>
<span>
Speaker Mike Johnson
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
made the move
</a>
<span>
after holdouts from the party refused to get on board with the Trump-backed spending blueprint, citing the legislation’s potentially huge addition to the national debt. Under the reconciliation rules that Republicans are relying on to pass the bill, the House must adopt the same budget resolution as the Senate.
</span>
</p>
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<tbody>
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<td height="10">
</td>
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<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
</td>
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<td>
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</span>
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<td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-bottom:1px solid #dcdcdc">
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</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Democratic lawmakers raise questions about trading and the tariff pause.
</span>
<span>
Senators
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Adam Schiff of California
</a>
<span>
and
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Elizabeth Warren
</a>
<span>
of Massachusetts were
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
among those who asked
</a>
<span>
whether President Trump’s call for people to buy stocks and later announcement of a pause in tariffs, which
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
sent markets soaring
</a>
<span>
, amounted to manipulation.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Oil prices retreat.
</span>
<span>
Futures tied to West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
fell more than 2 percent
</a>
<span>
today. Investors are worried that the continuing U.S.-China trade tensions will sap demand for oil, paring back yesterday’s gains, which were tied to relief that Trump’s move had averted a recession.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
A prominent executive from Paul Weiss resigns.
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Steven Banks
</a>
<span>
, who ran the giant law firm’s pro bono practice, said he would focus on the rights of the homeless by working with two legal nonprofits. His departure comes weeks after Paul Weiss struck a deal with Trump that lifted an executive order that had threatened to severely wound the firm; Banks did not cite the settlement in his statement.
</span>
</p>
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<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Inside the U-turn
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
It was the post that moved markets: “I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%,” President Trump
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
wrote on Truth Social
</a>
<span>
yesterday afternoon, setting off the biggest S&P 500 rally in nearly 17 years.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
path to that unexpected decision
</a>
<span>
was filled with conversations with business and international leaders, efforts to influence Trump on television and meetings with a few presidential advisers. Here’s what happened.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The bond market ultimately forced Trump’s hand,
</span>
<span>
according to The Times. While the president insisted earlier in the day that plunging stocks weren’t a concern — “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!”, he wrote on Truth Social at 9:37 a.m. Eastern — close advisers were dismayed by the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
sell-off in Treasury bonds and the dollar
</a>
<span>
, eroding the reputation of both as economic safe havens.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Soon after Trump’s morning post, he met with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, to discuss the 10-year Treasury yield.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line,” Trump later told reporters after announcing the pause. “They were getting yippy, you know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Corporate leaders and others had been making the case for an off-ramp.
</span>
<span>
Business executives and their lobbyists
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
had been calling Susie Wiles
</a>
<span>
, the White House chief of staff, to press for a rethink, according to The Wall Street Journal. Banking officials had also made the case to Republican lawmakers that tariffs were hurting the economy.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Meanwhile, Trump had a call yesterday with President Karin Keller-Sutter of Switzerland, who emphasized how a 31 percent tariff on her country could hit U.S. jobs, according to Swiss officials. And Lutnick spoke with
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Maros Sefcovic
</a>
<span>
, the European Union’s top trade official, whose bloc had approved major retaliatory measures, according to The Washington Post.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Then there were the TV interviews.
</span>
<span>
Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase knew that Trump would be watching his long-scheduled interview yesterday morning on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo, and used his appearance to warn that a recession was a “likely outcome” of the tariff fight. (The JPMorgan chief added, however, that some tariffs could help U.S. interests like trade imbalances.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The night before, several Republican senators expressed concern about the tariffs in an interview with Fox News’s Sean Hannity that they knew Trump would be watching. (One, Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, asked Hannity during a commercial break for “15 seconds to speak directly to the president,” according to The Post.) Trump later spoke with some of them.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Who appeared to hold the most sway:
</span>
<span>
Bessent gained more authority to negotiate trade deals, especially after meeting directly with the president on Sunday aboard Air Force One, The Times reports. He and Vice President JD Vance advised adopting a more structured approach that isolated China but didn’t sock other countries as hard.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Those who appeared to be less closely involved include Peter Navarro, the presidential adviser and trade hawk who favored punishing tariffs, according to The Post, and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, who faced a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
grilling on Capitol Hill
</a>
<span>
before and after Trump’s U-turn.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Ultimately, it was a gut call by Trump.
</span>
<span>
The decision “probably came together early this morning, fairly early this morning,” he told reporters yesterday. He added, “We wrote it up from our hearts.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That’s despite efforts by administration officials to argue that his reversal was part of a well-planned move. “This was his strategy all along,” Bessent said. “You have been watching the greatest economic master strategy from an American President in history,” Stephen Miller, a deputy White House chief of staff, wrote on X.
</span>
</p>
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</tbody>
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<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
A reprieve for A.I.?
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Don’t count out artificial intelligence stocks just yet.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company soared nearly 10 percent today after the chip-making giant — a major supplier to Apple and Nvidia — reported another blockbuster quarter, thanks to robust sales of smartphones and data center servers.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The news allayed some concerns that President Trump’s trade war has crimped the highflying A.I. market. But investors are still wary about what’s ahead.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The bull and bear readings of TSMC’s results:
</span>
<span>
The glass-half-full case is that A.I. investment is alive and well, despite lingering Wall Street worries about some tech giants tightening their belts.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The glass-half-empty case is that customers were merely ramping up orders before Trump’s trade fight. (Trump has placed tariffs on Taiwanese imports, and this week threatened to put
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
a “tax” of up to 100 percent
</a>
<span>
on TSMC unless it builds more factories in the United States, despite its
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
$100 billion U.S. investment pledge
</a>
<span>
.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
There are signs of an A.I. pullback. Microsoft said yesterday that it was “
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
slowing or pausing
</a>
<span>
” some data center investment, including construction of a $1 billion project in Ohio. And the rise of DeepSeek, the Chinese A.I. start-up that has outpaced Silicon Valley rivals despite having fewer resources, is still making others rethink their big spending plans.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
TSMC is in the cross hairs elsewhere in Washington.
</span>
<span>
It may need to pay
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
up to $1 billion in fines
</a>
<span>
to settle an investigation into why its chips were found inside a Huawei A.I. processor potentially in violation of U.S. trade restrictions, according to Reuters.
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
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<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
In other A.I. news: OpenAI asked a federal court to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
bar Elon Musk from taking “further unlawful and unfair action”
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
against the start-up, and to hold him responsible for any damages he caused it. And here’s how
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Figure AI
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
became one of the hottest privately held A.I. start-ups, despite having no revenue last year and few robots in production.
</span>
</li>
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THE SPEED READ
</span>
</h3>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Deals
</span>
</p>
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<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Prada reportedly cut its proposed takeover bid
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
for Versace by more than $200 million, to $1.38 billion, because of uncertainty over President Trump’s trade war. (FT)
</span>
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<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Shares in U.S. Steel tumbled after Trump said he didn’t want to see the struggling American company “
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
go to Japan
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
,” casting new doubt on the fate of Nippon Steel’s takeover effort. (Reuters)
</span>
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Politics, policy and regulation
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The latest flurry of Trump’s executive orders include
</span>
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a review of Pentagon purchases
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
and a rescinding of federal regulation that he
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
blames for low-pressure showers
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
. (Bloomberg, WSJ)
</span>
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<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
The House
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
struck down rules
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
set in the final days of the Biden administration, including a provision that would have capped most banks’ overdraft fees at $5. (NYT)
</span>
</li>
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Best of the rest
</span>
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<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
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<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Louise Story, a former editor at The Times and The Wall Street Journal,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
was named C.E.O.
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
of the travel brand Atlas Obscura. (Adweek)
</span>
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<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“An Hermès Heir, an Emir and
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
a $15 Billion Deal Gone Wrong
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
” (NYT)
</span>
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