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   DealBook: A pivotal jobs report
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   Also, bank stocks rebound.
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             May 5, 2023
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              Good morning. In today’s newsletter: All eyes are on today’s jobs report; attention turns to short sellers in the regional banking crisis; and Apple is boosted by growth in big emerging markets. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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                  Economists see job growth slowing.
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                  Jeff Chiu/Associated Press
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             What to watch in today’s jobs report
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             The U.S. labor market appears to be slowing. But is the economy still strong enough to avoid recession,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              as the Fed chairman, Jay Powell, contends
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             ? That’s the big question hanging over today’s payroll numbers, which are due for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
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              Employers added roughly 180,000 jobs last month
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             , economists
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              have forecast
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             . If correct, those figures would come in well below the 345,000-per-month average over the first quarter.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Forecasters have repeatedly underestimated the strength of the post-pandemic labor market.
             </span>
             They have undershot the payroll number 12 straight times, assuming companies would pull back on hiring as the Fed raised borrowing rates to tame inflation. Instead, employers have added roughly 4.5 million jobs since the central bank started increasing interest rates in March 2022. That comes despite waves of layoffs in the tech and retailing sectors, and a banking crisis that has led to the collapse of three regional lenders since March.
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              Another hot jobs number could still influence the Fed’s interest rate policy.
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             The Fed signaled that Wednesday’s rate increase would be its last for a while, but the central bank is determined to lower inflation to its 2 percent target. It has resolved to bring prices under control, “even at the expense of broader macro conditions, specifically calling out the still tight labor market,” Joe Davis, chief global economist at Vanguard, wrote in a note ahead of today’s report.
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              Keep an eye on wages.
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             The Labor Department’s employment cost index recently showed wages growing above expectations last quarter, a factor that could be driving up inflation. So far, Davis said, the Fed has been unable to “manufacture a wage slowdown.”
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              Goldman Sachs is under investigation over its work for Silicon Valley Bank
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             . The Wall Street giant
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              disclosed in a regulatory filing
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             that the authorities are looking into it for, in part, the advice it gave the lender to sell a large portfolio of securities at a loss. Within days, SVB had collapsed, touching off a larger crisis for regional banks.
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              Ed Sheeran wins a big copyright infringement suit.
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             The British musician’s chart-topping hit, “Thinking Out Loud,”
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              was not a rip-off
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             of Marvin Gaye’s “Let’s Get It On,” a New York federal court ruled. The verdict is seen as a victory for songwriters fearing a rash of copycat copyright lawsuits.
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              New York and California investigate the N.F.L
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             . The state’s attorneys general opened investigations into the league
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              over workplace discrimination and pay inequities
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             following a 2022 report in The Times on the league’s treatment of female employees. The league said it is cooperating.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Berkshire Hathaway investors converge on Omaha.
             </span>
             Shareholders are expected to question Warren Buffett and his lieutenants about the firm’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              big bets on oil
             </a>
             and on his “
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              favorite child
             </a>
             ,” the auto insurer Geico, at the conglomerate’s annual investor day tomorrow. Berkshire’s stock has been essentially flat over the past year, but it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Clarence Thomas and his wife face more scrutiny over finances.
             </span>
             The Supreme Court justice did not disclose that the billionaire Republican donor Harlan Crow paid the school tuition for his great-nephew, according to a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              ProPublica investigation
             </a>
             . Separately, The Washington Post
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              reported
             </a>
             that a conservative judicial activist arranged to pay Thomas’s wife, Ginni Thomas, for consulting work, but left her name off the paperwork.
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             Short sellers in focus as regional banks teeter
            </h2>
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             Shares in a group of closely watched regional lenders are rebounding this morning in premarket trading, led by PacWest and Western Alliance, after getting clobbered yesterday. But analysts warn the upheaval is far from over, especially as short sellers continue to circle.
            </p>
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              Shares in PacWest and Western Alliance plunged
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             even as the lenders opened up their books to show that their deposit bases were relatively sound. Their finances are not the worry, analysts say. It’s that a crisis of confidence has swept through the sector since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank in March, compounding the risk that falling share prices will set off another round of bank runs.
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              From Wall Street to Washington, short sellers are under scrutiny.
             </span>
             These investors, who profit from the falling share price of companies they target, have made roughly $7 billion in 2023 betting against regional banks,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              according to data from S3 Partners
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             . “The other scary thing is that the attacks are increasingly looking speculative, but risk becoming self fulfilling,” wrote Jim Reid, head of global fundamental credit strategy at Deutsche Bank, in an investor note this morning.
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             The White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters yesterday that the Biden administration was closely monitoring “the short-selling pressures on healthy banks.”
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              Wall Street wants more.
             </span>
             Wachtell Lipton Rosen &amp; Katz, a prominent law firm that has
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              represented businesses facing short-seller attacks
             </a>
             such as the Adani Group, yesterday urged the S.E.C. to reinstate a 2008 emergency rule that placed a 15-day short-selling ban on banks. The firm also suggested bringing back
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the uptick rule
             </a>
             , a trading restriction designed to limit volatile share price drops.
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             “The country needs a prompt, tailored response by the S.E.C. to coordinated short attacks that are putting our economy at great risk,” the firm wrote in a statement. And,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              in a letter to the S.E.C. chairman, Gary Gensler
             </a>
             , the American Bankers Association urged the regulator “to consider all its existing tools” to protect banks from short sellers.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Gensler has vowed to keep a close eye on any market misconduct.
             </span>
             But an agency spokesman said the S.E.C. was not contemplating measures that would place limits on short selling.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The F.D.I.C. reportedly wants big banks to pay up.
             </span>
             The agency will introduce in the coming days a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              new set of fees
             </a>
             meant to replenish the Deposit Insurance Fund that was depleted by the bank runs at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, according to Bloomberg. Banks with under $10 billion in assets would be exempt from paying. Nelson Peltz, the activist investor and C.E.O. of Trian Fund Management, has another idea for how to top up the fund: Customers with more than $250,000 in deposits should pay an insurance premium,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              he told The Financial Times
             </a>
             .
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “I think DeSantis would make a terrific president. If he’s the Republican nominee, I will strongly support him in 2024 … But I do worry that focusing on the woke issue as ground zero is not quite enough.”
            </h2>
           </td>
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             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              —
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               Peter Thiel
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              , the tech mogul and prominent Republican donor, advising Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida to campaign on economic policy rather than “identity politics” if he makes a run for the White House.
             </span>
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2023%252F05%252F05%252Fmultimedia%252F05db-cook-lthf%252F05db-cook-lthf-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1putoh:Jdn9klOrtaJwN4O2d05rwG5WZoxDhm9qDRWelOB0t-k" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  Tim Cook, C.E.O. of Apple, is greeted with a Macintosh Classic computer during the opening of the first Apple store in Mumbai last month.
                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Rafiq Maqbool/Associated Press
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             Apple defies the doomsayers
            </h2>
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             Apple
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              topped first-quarter earnings estimates
             </a>
             on the back of surging iPhone sales, expanding its reach into big emerging markets while navigating supply chain disruptions.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              It was not all good news:
             </span>
             Revenues declined for the second consecutive quarter, just the third time in a decade that the company has posted back-to-back falls. But shares are up more than 2 percent in premarket trading, after the company announced a $90 billion share buyback program and increased its dividend by 4 percent.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              New markets and services powered growth.
             </span>
             Sales in the U.S. and China fell, but Apple’s finance chief, Luca Maestri, said that growth in India, Indonesia, Latin America and the Middle East helped the company “offset some macroeconomic challenges.”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              India is a particular focus.
             </span>
             Apple has expanded manufacturing and last month opened its first retail store in the country of 1.4 billion. Executives mentioned India 20 times on a conference call with analysts, and Tim Cook, Apple’s C.E.O.,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              called it a priority
             </a>
             . “There are a lot of people coming into the middle class and I really feel that India is at a tipping point,” he said.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Cook had little to say about artificial intelligence.
             </span>
             The
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             tech earnings season has been dominated by questions about how A.I. fits into companies’ growth plans. Compared with Microsoft and Google, Apple has revealed far less about its vision for the tech. Cook
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              acknowledged the huge potential
             </a>
             but warned that it was necessary to be “deliberate and thoughtful” in how A.I. was implemented. “And there’s a number of issues that need to be sorted,” he added.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              What next?
             </span>
             The company is reportedly trying to diversify its supply chain away from China and is expected to unveil its long-awaited augmented reality device at its developers’ conference next month.
            </p>
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            <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             THE SPEED READ
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              Deals
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Silver Lake reportedly upped its bid for
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Software AG
               </a>
               after Bain Capital submitted a rival offer. (Bloomberg)
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                Louis Bacon
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               was awarded $203 million in long-running defamation case against a disgraced Canadian fashion executive. (FT)
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