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DealBook: Are America’s banks safe yet?
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
Mixed feelings about First Republic’s bailout
</h2>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
America’s biggest banks unveiled an impressive show of force yesterday,
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
injecting $30 billion into First Republic Bank
</a>
as it teetered on the brink of collapse.
</p>
</td>
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</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
The plan was meant to shore up confidence in the financial system and contain fallout from the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank. But investors and bank executives are wondering if that effort will hold up.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
How the plan came together:
</span>
</p>
</td>
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</tbody>
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</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested enlisting the private sector for help during a call on Tuesday with Jay Powell, the Fed chair; Martin Gruenberg, chair of the F.D.I.C.; and Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
She then proposed the idea to Jamie Dimon, the C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase, which had extended the bank a credit line this week. Despite still feeling bruised by the fallout from JPMorgan’s rescues of Washington Mutual and Bear Stearns during the 2008 financial crisis, Dimon started calling other C.E.O.s to raise the money.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Yesterday morning, Yellen convened a call with regulators and bank C.E.O.s before she testified to the Senate Finance Committee. After the hearing, Dimon met Yellen for a prescheduled appointment before the banks released a joint statement. (Another key player: Rodge Cohen of the law firm Sullivan & Cromwell, who has helped respond to nearly every banking failure over the past three decades, and was counseling First Republic.)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
It’s a page from a well-tested playbook.
</span>
In 1907, J. Pierpont Morgan and his allies bought up $30 million worth of New York City bonds to
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
stem a widening financial crisis.
</a>
In 1984, big banks and the Chicago Fed
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
provided more than $5 billion
</a>
to Continental Illinois. And in 1998, banks banded together to invest $3.6 billion in Long Term Capital Management.
</p>
</td>
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<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Is First Republic safe now?
</span>
Its shares closed up 10 percent yesterday — but were down sharply in premarket trading this morning after the bank said it would cancel its dividend. First Republic also said it had been suffering daily deposit outflows, though the pace was “slowing considerably.”
</p>
</td>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Not everyone is happy about the intervention.
</span>
The hedge fund billionaire
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
</span>
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Bill Ackman tweeted
</a>
that the banks’ actions were a “fictional vote of confidence” and said First Republic’s “default risk is now being spread to our largest banks.”
</p>
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Continue reading the main story
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A MESSAGE FROM
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ERICSSON
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<a style="-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;display:block">
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Critical digital infrastructure, made in the U.S.
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At Ericsson's smart factory in Lewisville, Texas, we're building the 5G radio equipment that powers digital transformation – including all the baseband units for the three largest U.S. operators and all of the mm-wave radios for American demand – to keep the supply chain close to our customers. Ericsson. 5G Made for U.S.
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Learn more.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
But Yellen
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
defended the government’s handling of the crisis
</a>
, telling the Senate Finance Committee that protecting depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank was meant to limit the damage to the wider financial system. (The banks’ cash injection into First Republic was via unsecured deposits, so those lenders are hoping that the government will backstop that move as well.)
</p>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
What’s next?
</span>
Banks have already been building up liquidity — the Fed disclosed yesterday that it had
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
lent $153 billion
</a>
to banks through its discount window in the week ended Wednesday — but the likely prospect that credit ratings agencies will downgrade regional lenders’ debt will create more pressure to find additional capital.
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
One embattled regional bank, PacWest, is
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
reportedly in talks with investment firms
</a>
to do just that, according to Reuters.
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
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<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
In other banking news: Peter Thiel, whose venture firm urged portfolio companies to withdraw their money from Silicon Valley Bank, had
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
$50 million of his own money
</a>
at the lender when it failed. Goldman Sachs reportedly
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
weighed a takeover of S.V.B.
</a>
in 2020. And here is why the lender’s collapse
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
portends bad news for SoftBank
</a>
, the Japanese tech investor.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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</tr>
</tbody>
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<h3 class="css-132hdgt" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</h3>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Xi Jinping of China is set to meet with Vladimir Putin next week.
</span>
The Chinese president’s
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
state visit to Moscow
</a>
will be closely watched by the West for signs of Beijing’s intentions regarding the war in Ukraine. China has maintained relations with Russia, and U.S. intelligence has suggested that it has planned to arm Russian troops, which Beijing has denied.
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Emmanuel Macron forces through a change in France’s retirement age.
</span>
The French president used a special measure to
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raise the age
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to 64 from 62, after failing to win enough support in Parliament. Opponents are working on a no-confidence vote in Macron’s government, and protesters briefly blocked a major highway ringing Paris.
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A Chinese tech giant’s A.I. event draws a mixed reception.
</span>
Shares in Baidu
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
fell yesterday
</a>
after the company offered a peek at Ernie, its answer to the chatbot ChatGPT. But the stock recovered today after some users
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
got hands-on access
</a>
to the technology, and analysts noted that the chatbot was the most likely to succeed in China.
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New study links Covid origins to animals.
</span>
A global team of experts said yesterday that it had found data linking the
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coronavirus to raccoon dogs
</a>
that were sold at a Wuhan market, supporting the theory that the pandemic spread to humans from an infected animal. The F.B.I. and the Energy Department have said in recent weeks that a
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
lab leak
</a>
was the most likely origin, but there is no consensus within the Biden administration.
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Traders withdraw billions from a major cryptocurrency.
</span>
USDC, one of the biggest so-called stablecoins, saw
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
$3 billion in net outflows this week
</a>
after its operator, Circle, said it had $3.3 billion trapped at Silicon Valley Bank. But Bitcoin is rising, trading above $26,000 amid hopes that the Fed will ease up on rate increases.
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Central bankers are under the gun
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Until last week, persistent inflation was central banks’ biggest worry — and then came the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Investors have since wondered whether monetary authorities would ease up on raising interest rates to avoid further spooking investors.
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For now, the answer appears to be no, after the European Central Bank stuck with a
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
planned half-point increase
</a>
in its deposit rate to 3 percent yesterday. But the E.C.B. concedes that its path ahead is uncertain — and there are questions about what the Fed will do next week.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
“Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long,”
</span>
Christine Lagarde, the E.C.B.’s president, said yesterday. Traders and economists had increasingly expected the E.C.B. to raise rates by just a quarter percentage point, but the bank had to rely on projections based on economic data from before the turmoil in banking stocks began, forcing it to make a decision with imperfect clarity.
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That said, Lagarde left room to change course: The E.C.B. “stands ready to respond as necessary to preserve price stability and financial stability in the euro area,” she said.
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Focus now turns to the Fed’s rate decision next week.
</span>
Until recently, it had been expected to also raise rates by a half point. But the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, driven in large part by rising rates that cut into the value of its bond holdings, has convinced many that a smaller increase, or none at all, is in the offing.
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As they deliberate their next steps, Fed leaders are surely weighing whether other unintended consequences of their
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rapid tightening
</a>
will emerge. “There’s an old saying: Whenever the Fed hits the brakes, someone goes through the windshield,” Michael Feroli, the chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, told The Times.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Some investors are urging the Fed to stay the course.
</span>
One of them is the billionaire
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Carl Icahn
</a>
, who told The Financial Times: “I think you have to stamp out the disease of inflation.”
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
Credit Suisse isn’t out of the woods yet
</h2>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Shares in Credit Suisse were down this morning, after soaring nearly 20 percent yesterday in response to the Swiss National Bank’s decision to extend a $54 billion lifeline to the beleaguered lender.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
But investors remain wary about Credit Suisse’s future, both because of longstanding concerns about whether its ambitious turnaround plan will succeed — and more immediate worries that markets could suddenly panic again, with dire consequences.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Credit Suisse’s debt reflects more concern than its shares do.
</span>
The price of some of its bonds maturing within the next few years had
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
fallen below 70 cents on the dollar
</a>
yesterday, suggesting investors were worried about the likelihood of being paid back.
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Thanks to the Swiss National Bank, Credit Suisse now has access to more liquidity, topping up capital reserves that financial authorities have already said are more than sufficient. But while the prices of contracts that insure the bank’s debt have dropped, they’re still very high; that, in turn, is keeping overnight funding costs expensive as well.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
And Credit Suisse has a lot more work to do.
</span>
Many investors and analysts are still unconvinced that its restructuring plan — which includes spinning off much of its investment bank and focusing on less risky wealth management — will be enough to revive its fortunes. Meanwhile, one potential bailout plan, a sale of Credit Suisse to its archrival UBS, is
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
opposed by both banks
</a>
, according to Bloomberg.
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
‘Try not to become a robot’
</h2>
</td>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
The makers of ChatGPT released an
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
upgrade
</a>
of the A.I. chatbot this week that inspired even more fascination and anxiety. The technology has captured the public imagination, but it has also tapped into some of our
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
deepest fears
</a>
about being human in a machine age.
</p>
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Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, an organizational psychologist, says we’re worrying about the wrong things. He spoke to DealBook about his new book, “I, Human: A.I., Automation, and the Quest to Reclaim What Makes Us Unique.” This interview has been edited and condensed.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
What makes us human?
</span>
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
The four main qualities are curiosity, empathy, creativity and self-awareness. Some people dismiss ChatGPT because it makes errors or doesn’t have a sense of humor, but the same goes for most humans. There is no stopping machines from getting smarter, but if we ignore technology our chances of getting eliminated by it increase. So we need to think deeply about the human elements of what we do.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
How do we cultivate these qualities?
</span>
</p>
</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Creativity is simple to cultivate. Start by injecting unpredictability into your life. Try to spend more time in the analog world.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
How do businesses apply this?
</span>
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
For businesses, there has never been a better time to rehumanize work. A lot of time has been spent on digital transformation, but there are signs employees are having an unrewarding experience. Going to an office, interacting offline, is more likely to humanize us.
</p>
</td>
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</table>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Why is A.I. exciting despite the dangers?
</span>
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
It can augment societal biases, but A.I. could also help reduce bias in the workplace and advance a healthier version of meritocracy if we use data engines to help us look past politics and personalities and understand underlying dynamics about who truly contributes.
</p>
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THE SPEED READ
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Why it would be hard for ByteDance of China
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
to sell TikTok
</a>
, even if
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
China would allow it
</a>
. (NYT, The Information)
</span>
</li>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Michael Jordan is reportedly in talks to sell a
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
majority stake in the Charlotte Hornets
</a>
to a group led by a minority owner of the N.B.A. team. (ESPN)
</span>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
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MindGeek, the owner of Pornhub
</a>
, was sold to a newly formed Canadian private equity firm. (FT)
</span>
</li>
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Best of the rest
</span>
</p>
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</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-27qc8p" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Inside Elon Musk’s relentless campaign to
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
slash costs at Twitter
</a>
. (FT)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Evictions in the U.S.
</a>
have returned to prepandemic levels. (Axios)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Google Glass
</a>
is going away. Again. (WSJ)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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2 years ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
DealBook: Are America’s banks safe yet?
First Republic got a huge cash infusion, but concerns remain. Plus, central banks’ big dilemma.Vi...