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   DealBook: Bernanke’s warning
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   The former Fed chair says a period of stagflation is coming.
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             May 16, 2022
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              Good morning. In breaking news this morning, McDonald’s
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               said
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              it would permanently leave Russia, after pausing operations there in March. More below on what C.E.O. Chris Kempczinski says was a “complicated” decision with “profound consequences.” (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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                  What, me worry?
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                 <span class="css-hpkdsj esd8w5v3" style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Christopher Aluka Berry/Reuters
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             Bernanke is worried
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             Ben Bernanke says the U.S. economy, for the first time since the 1970s, could be heading toward a period of stagflation. Bernanke, the former Federal Reserve chair who headed the central bank during the 2008 financial crisis, warns that the nation is headed for a situation, much like the 1970s, where Americans were losing their jobs but still facing higher prices at the grocery store and at the pump. “Even under the benign scenario, we should have a slowing economy,” Bernanke told DealBook, in an exclusive interview with
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Andrew ahead of Bernanke’s new book
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             . The book, “
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve From the Great Inflation to Covid-19
             </a>
             ,” is publishing tomorrow. “So there should be a period in the next year or two where growth is low, unemployment is at least up a little bit and inflation is still high.”
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Economists remain split on whether a soft landing is possible.
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             Some economists say price pressures are easing. Others, including former top Obama economic advisers Larry Summers and Jason Furman, say a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              recession is likely.
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              But Bernanke is still hopeful a recession can be avoided.
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             He said the Fed’s credibility with the public is going to be crucial to its ability to fight inflation, and it is something he is deeply worried about given how polarized the nation appears to be. In addition, he remains concerned that supply chain problems continue for all types of goods — even his own. “Given supply-chain disruptions, this book took six months to go from final manuscript to appearing in the store,” he said.
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              Even so, Bernanke says backing away from a 2 percent inflation target would be a mistake.
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             He says current Fed chair Jay Powell should make it clear that the Fed’s inflation target remains unchanged. And do whatever it takes to bring inflation back to that level. “In everyday life, we judge the credibility of promises more by the reputations of the promise-makers than by the exact words they use,” Bernanke writes in the book. “The same principle applies to central bank promises.”
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              Bernanke says he is concerned about rising housing prices
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             , but he doesn’t think a drop in prices would lead to the same problems the U.S. had when he was Fed chair. “That’s something that needs to be watched,” he said, but unlike in 2008, “the mortgages that are being lent to buy these houses are generally much higher quality than the subprime mortgages of 15 years ago.”
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              Bonus political controversy
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             : Bernanke weighed in on the debate over forgiving student debt: “It would be very unfair to eliminate. Many of the people who have large amounts of student debt are professionals who are going to go on and make lots of money in their lifetime. So why would we be favoring them over somebody who didn’t go to college, for example?”
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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              China’s economy takes a hit.
             </span>
             The lockdowns in Shanghai and other Chinese cities have caused industrial output and consumer spending to slide to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the lowest levels since the pandemic began
             </a>
             , Bloomberg reports. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1 percent and the youth jobless rate hit a record amid spending cuts, factory shutdowns and supply chain delays.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              JetBlue plans to launch a hostile takeover attempt for Spirit.
             </span>
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              JetBlue appealed directly to Spirit’s shareholders
             </a>
             today by submitting
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a tender offer
             </a>
             for their shares, after Spirit rejected JetBlue’s $3.6 billion offer.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              C.E.O. pay packages rise to record levels.
             </span>
             The median pay package for C.E.O.s of the biggest U.S. companies reached nearly $15 million last year,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              setting a record for the sixth consecutive year
             </a>
             . Total compensation rose at least 12 percent for most executives, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from MyLogIQ LLC.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Saudi Aramco’s first-quarter profits jump 80 percent from the same period last year.
             </span>
             The company is cashing in on soaring oil prices, with its quarterly income reaching nearly $40 billion. Unlike Shell and Exxon, which face shareholder demands to reduce global warming, Saudi Aramco is almost entirely government-owned and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              faces little pressure to reduce output and carbon emissions
             </a>
             .
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              West Virginia governor’s company is close to settling with Credit Suisse.
             </span>
             Under the deal, Gov. Jim Justice’s coal mining company,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Bluestone Resources, would reportedly ramp up production and make regular cash payments to Credit Suisse
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             , The Financial Times reported. Bluestone had borrowed from Greensill Capital, the collapsed U.K. supply chain company that relied on Credit Suisse clients for financing.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             McDonald’s leaves Russia for good
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             After more than three decades, McDonald’s, an icon of American lifestyle and capitalism, is selling its Russian business, and leaving the country,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch reports.
             </a>
             (It said in March it would temporarily close its operations there.) The move is a historic departure for a brand whose growth across the world became the symbol of globalism, and once served as the basis of Thomas Friedman’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              peace theory.
             </a>
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              McDonald’s says its Russian exit could cost as much as $1.4 billion.
             </span>
             McDonald’s plans to sell its business to a local buyer. It will “de-arch” those restaurants, meaning they will no longer use the McDonald’s name, logo or branding. (It will retain its trademarks in Russia.) McDonald’s said it aims to continue to pay the employees until a deal is made, and then help them land new jobs with any potential buyer. “This was not an easy decision, nor will it be simple to execute given the size of our business and the current challenges of operating in Russia,” McDonald’s C.E.O. Chris Kempczinski wrote in a message to franchises, employees and suppliers.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Many brands and restaurant chains have paused their operations in Russia, but few have left entirely.
             </span>
             A number of companies have voiced concern about the welfare of employees and common Russian citizens as the reason for not leaving the country completely. But it is widely believed that companies are not fully exiting Russia because they plan a return once the war is over. Critics
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              have argued anything short of a full withdrawal is insufficient.
             </a>
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              McDonald’s C.E.O. says what companies do will have “profound consequences.”
             </span>
             In his message to franchisees, employees and suppliers, Kempczinski wrote that McDonald’s faced a “complicated” and “unprecedented” decision. “It is impossible to ignore the humanitarian crisis caused by the war in Ukraine,” he wrote. “And it is impossible to imagine the Golden Arches representing the same hope and promise that led us to enter the Russian market 32 years ago.”
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Social media executives should evaluate their policies to ensure that “everything is being done that they can to make sure that this information is not spread.”
            </h2>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York criticizing
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               social media platforms
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              for their role in influencing the Buffalo shooter’s racist beliefs and allowing video of his attack to circulate.
             </span>
            </p>
           </td>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Bezos beefs with Biden
            </h2>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos, is trolling President Biden on Twitter. After Biden on Friday connected
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              lowering inflation
             </a>
             with corporations paying “their fair share,”
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Bezos quipped
             </a>
             , “The newly created Disinformation Board should review this tweet, or maybe they need to form a new Non Sequitur Board instead.” He said that conflating lower inflation with higher corporate taxes amounted to “misdirection.”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Still bristling, Bezos fired again yesterday.
             </span>
             He lauded Joe Manchin, the centrist West Virginia senator who must be cajoled by fellow Democrats for any legislation to pass and has halted many stimulus plans. “Manchin saved them from themselves,” Bezos wrote, plunging the company into politics at a fraught time internally,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              amid an employee unionization push
             </a>
             , and just as most executives are trying to stay out of difficult debates and any accompanying trouble.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Wrangling with the government over taxes on Twitter means calling public attention to
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               a touchy topic
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              for Amazon
             </span>
             . The company reported about $20 billion in income in 2020 yet said it owed only about $1.8 billion in federal taxes. That’s a 9 percent tax rate — less than half the rates both corporations and workers must pay. When Biden unveiled plans to raise rates and close tax loopholes last year, he
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              singled out Amazon
             </a>
             , saying, “I don’t want to punish them, but that’s just wrong.” Amazon did not respond to DealBook’s request for comment.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Companies are facing a backlash for wading into politics
             </span>
             . Disney last month lost its
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              special tax status in Florida
             </a>
             after opposing a law limiting gender identity discussions in schools. Now, Republican lawmakers at the state and federal levels are drafting similarly retributive legislation for politically minded businesses. But for executives, it’s a balance. Many workers, shareholders and customers are demanding that corporations speak up, and pressure could increase now that abortion rights have become a major midterm election issue. So Amazon’s current C.E.O., Andy Jassy, is probably not looking for this fight right now.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Bezos quietly butters up the government, just like Elon Musk.
             </span>
             While both have been
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              publicly critical
             </a>
             of the Biden administration, Bezos’ Blue Origin and Musk’s SpaceX spend significant resources
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              lobbying officials
             </a>
             to pick up their space exploration tabs and to win NASA contracts. Senator Bernie Sanders, Democrat of Vermont, has accused them both of using NASA like an A.T.M. and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              tweeted at Bezos
             </a>
             on Saturday about Amazon’s labor issues and soaring profits.
            </p>
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           <td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
            <h3 class="css-132hdgt e8bxl341" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             THE SPEED READ
            </h3>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Deals
             </span>
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
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           <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
            <ul class="css-27qc8p e1darl2c0" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The Adani Group, led by Asia’s richest person, Gautam Adani, is buying the Swiss cement giant Holcim’s Indian businesses in a
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                $10.5 billion deal
               </a>
               . (FT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The state-controlled, Emirates Telecommunications Group, acquired a
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                9.8 percent stake in Vodafone
               </a>
               for $4.4 billion. (FT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Carlyle Group is in advanced talks
               </a>
               to buy ManTech International, a U.S. government contractor. (Bloomberg)
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Russia-Ukraine war
             </span>
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
            <ul class="css-27qc8p e1darl2c0" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
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               Renault is
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                selling its majority stake
               </a>
               in the Russian carmaker Avtovaz. The deal includes a six year buyback option. (NYT)
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               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Finland and Sweden
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               . (NYT)
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                thwarted attacks from pro-Russian hackers
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               during the competition. Ukraine’s entrant
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                won
               </a>
               the contest. (Insider, NYT)
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                Who Should Own Them?
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                Sam Bankman-Fried
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               . (NYT)
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                contributed to the political rise
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                “very, very high risk” of recession
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               . (CBS)
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                Private plane usage soared
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               last year. Will it stay that way? (BBC)
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               “
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                Your Boss Is Asking
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               .” (NYT)
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              Correction: Friday’s newsletter misstated how much Siemens lost in its second quarter. It was 600 million euros, not 600,000 euros.
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