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The state of the economy
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President Biden led his first
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address yesterday with a promise to make Vladimir Putin pay for invading Ukraine and praise for the Ukrainian resistance. When he turned to domestic issues, a fair amount of his hour-long speech focused on business and the economy.
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<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Biden said fighting inflation was his “top priority,” and made eye-catching proposals.
</span>
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The president said
</a>
he would encourage competition and ease supply-chain snarls that have led to rising prices (more on that below). He promised to crack down on shipping companies that had taken advantage of the pandemic to raise prices. He said he would launch an investigation into fraud stemming from pandemic relief measures. And on drug prices, he appeared to embrace the contentious idea of
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
price controls
</a>
, for example with a call to “cap the cost” of insulin at $35 a month.
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="left">
<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
But talking down inflation isn’t easy. “Wonder if he connected convincingly on inflation? Felt like a driveby,”
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
tweeted
</a>
the Democratic strategist David Axelrod. And recent actions to stem the rise in oil prices, like
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
releasing oil
</a>
from strategic reserves, have had little effect, with
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
prices jumping again today
</a>
.
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Continue reading the main story
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Biden extolled a resurgence of manufacturing
</span>
, saying that the Rust Belt deserved a new name. Intel’s C.E.O., Pat Gelsinger, attended the speech and got a shout-out as the president cited the company’s $20 billion plan to build semiconductor factories in Ohio. Biden also praised Ford and G.M. for devoting a combined $18 billion toward making electric vehicles in the U.S. While the American manufacturing sector has added 400,000 workers in the past year, jobs in the sector, which accounts for around 8 percent of the work force, are still down from pre-pandemic levels.
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Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute of International Economics,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
said
</a>
that Biden pandered to “macho manufacturing fetishes” and ignored the majority of workers outside heavy industry.
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</tbody>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Biden’s speech highlighted some of his divisions with the business community.
</span>
After the speech,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Elon Musk tweeted
</a>
that Tesla — unmentioned in the address — had created 50,000 U.S. jobs and invested more in electric-vehicle tech than G.M. and Ford combined; the exchange underscored Biden’s focus on automakers with unionized workforces. The president also invited the
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Facebook whistleblower Frances Haugen
</a>
to attend and thanked her in the speech, signaling that his administration will continue clamping down on tech giants.
</p>
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</tbody>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
Read more coverage of the speech, including
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
five key takeaways
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
, what
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Republicans
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
said in their response, what a
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
top progressive lawmaker
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
said in her response, and
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
two
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
topics
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
that Biden didn’t mention.
</span>
</p>
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HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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Biden has a new coronavirus response plan.
</span>
In his State of the Union, he announced “
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
test to treat
</a>
”: Americans can get tested for Covid at a pharmacy, and if they are positive, receive free antiviral pills on the spot.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The star witness in the 1MDB trial admits he “lied a lot.”
</span>
Under cross-examination, Tim Leissner, a former Goldman Sachs executive who is key to the government’s case against his ex-colleague Roger Ng,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
acknowledged lying
</a>
to the authorities and romantic partners. That included presenting a fake divorce decree to his now-estranged fiancée.
</p>
</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Hong Kong’s pandemic restrictions alarm its business community.
</span>
Bankers and investors there are increasingly asking employers
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
to relocate
</a>
to avoid the tightening travel restrictions. Hong Kong’s leaders, worried about an exodus of businesses,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
urged residents not to panic
</a>
.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Major League Baseball cancels opening day games amid a labor dispute.
</span>
The failure of owners and the players’ union to reach a new collective bargaining agreement led to the
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
first games canceled or postponed
</a>
because of a work stoppage since 1994.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The beleaguered cargo ship bearing 4,000 luxury cars finally sinks.
</span>
After burning for two weeks, the Felicity Ace, which carried Porsches, Bentleys and Lamborghinis,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
sank yesterday
</a>
off the Azores.
</p>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
The latest on the Russia-Ukraine war
</h2>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<ul class="css-27qc8p e1darl2c0" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
More companies have frozen ties to Russia, including
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Apple
</a>
,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Visa and Mastercard
</a>
,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Boeing and Ford
</a>
and
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
P.R. firms
</a>
, while
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Facebook
</a>
restricted Russian state media on its global platforms. But some
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
cryptocurrency exchanges
</a>
are resisting bans on Russian transactions.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Russia is finding
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
fewer buyers for its oil
</a>
, even at deep discounts.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase warned that the
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
sanctions on Russian banks would have unintended consequences
</a>
and said market volatility would persist.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Times Opinion’s Tom Friedman lays out
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
three scenarios
</a>
for how the war might end.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Here’s where Russian oligarchs are
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
moving their yachts
</a>
, as President Biden threatened to seize their “
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
ill-begotten gains
</a>
.” Meanwhile, Credit Suisse reportedly
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
asked investors to destroy documents
</a>
tied to the bank’s loans to oligarchs backed by their most valuable assets (like yachts).
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
For up-to-the-minute news, see The Times’s
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
live blog
</a>
.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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<img class="css-ivj8p2 e1aggfhi0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F03%252F02%252Fbusiness%252F02db-rates%252F02db-rates-articleLarge.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1nUZ7f:jvhuvHvFgYCtFmNVZNw10EwB92gFmkiVhWcVcQpoTYQ" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:30px;line-height:0"/>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
The Fed’s ‘nightmare scenario’
</h2>
</td>
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</tbody>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
The global economic effects from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are clouding what seemed to be a clear plan for the Fed to raise interest rates. Jay Powell, the Fed chair, is testifying in the House today as part of his semiannual check-in with lawmakers.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The soaring price of energy and other commodities could make already high inflation worse
</span>
, a case for raising rates aggressively. But this could slow the economy as geopolitical turmoil, reductions in government stimulus and ongoing
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
supply chain issues
</a>
sap growth. These fears are reflected in the bond markets, where long-term interest rates have fallen to their lowest level of the year, with traders revising down their forecasts for Fed rate increases. (A half-point rise this month once looked a near certainty, but now seems unlikely.) In short, the markets suggest that the Fed has less room to raise interest rates without causing a recession.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
“The Fed is facing a nightmare scenario,”
</span>
Diane Swonk, the chief economist at Grant Thornton, told DealBook. While it needs to raise rates to stop inflation, it also doesn’t want to disrupt the markets, she said: “The Fed is going to have to be more cautious in how they move.”
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<span class="css-2zlgwg e1aggfhi3" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
Harry Wilson, center, speaks to reporters at the New York State Republican convention yesterday.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
John Minchillo/Associated Press
</span>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
Meet the financier who wants to run New York State
</h2>
</td>
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<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Democrats believe they will keep New York State’s governorship in November, given how blue the state has been for years. But a
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Republican financier
</a>
is betting that he can spoil those plans. (Yes, the
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Mike Bloomberg comparison
</a>
has been raised.)
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Harry Wilson announced his candidacy only last week.
</span>
He began his career at firms like Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and the hedge fund Silver Point Capital as a distressed-debt investor. He then joined the Obama administration’s auto task force, helping overhaul G.M. He later founded the Maeva Group, a corporate turnaround firm. This is his pitch:
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Wilson will highlight his experience in “leading turnarounds of complicated organizations,” he told DealBook. His campaign slogan is “
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Turn around New York
</a>
.”
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
He came close to ending Republicans’ decades-long losing streak for statewide offices in 2010, when he
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
narrowly lost
</a>
the election for New York State’s comptroller. “I’m the only candidate in 20 years to come close,” he said.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
His outsider status is an asset in an age of populism. That said, unlike
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
other
</a>
G.O.P.
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
candidates
</a>
for governor, he hasn’t exactly embraced Donald Trump: When asked if he supports the former president, Wilson said, “I’m a Harry Wilson Republican.”
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Wilson faces steep hurdles, not least that he isn’t New York Republicans’ official nominee.
</span>
At yesterday’s convention, the party confirmed
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Representative Lee Zeldin
</a>
, a Long Island congressman. Wilson must now collect thousands of petition signatures from Republicans across the state to qualify for the G.O.P. ballot in time for the June 28 primary. (Wilson said that was “absolutely” his intention; his willingness to
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
spend millions on his campaign
</a>
will help.)
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Republicans remain underdogs in the state
</span>
, with registered Democratic voters outnumbering them by two to one and the incumbent governor, Kathy Hochul, benefiting from
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
a huge war chest
</a>
. Still, Republicans point to
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
voter dissatisfaction
</a>
with crime and the economy as issues they can campaign on.
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
A divergence on divestment from Russia
</h2>
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Exxon Mobil
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
said yesterday
</a>
that it would end its involvement in a large oil and natural gas project in Russia, joining Western oil companies like BP and Shell in acting after Russia invaded Ukraine.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
While the pressure on multinational companies to divest builds, some question whether the sales are a punishment or a gift to Russia. With sanctions isolating the Russian economy, the most likely buyers of these assets are Russians. The financial hit that foreign companies will take could be seen as a boon for local buyers.
</p>
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Simon Johnson, a professor at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and the former chief economist of the I.M.F., said that selling assets in Russia was still the right call, because it wasn’t just capital that the moves would withdraw.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
“For big projects in the energy sector there is a lot of know-how involved from the side of the Western companies,” Johnson told DealBook. “Foreign companies are pulling out the expertise, along with the market access and funding that they provide.”
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
But Luke Patey, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute of International Studies who studied the impact of sanctions on Sudan, said that what happened there was not an encouraging precedent.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Western oil companies left Sudan in the early 2000s, he said, under pressure from activists, but they were quickly replaced with Chinese, Malaysian and Indian national oil companies. The Sudanese oil industry continued to expand, and the Sudanese government’s abuses continued.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Patey sees a similar pattern playing out in Russia. Businesses run by U.S. or European firms could be turned over to Russian or Chinese operators. “Western companies can be key investors and offer vital technology and expertise, but that doesn’t mean Moscow can’t muddle through,” he said. “In some ways, it is a conscience-clearing exercise of Western investors that ultimately doesn’t necessarily have a major impact on its target.”
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<h3 class="css-132hdgt e8bxl341" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
THE SPEED READ
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
BlackRock will let shareholders in 40 percent of its index equity assets vote their own holdings in corporate elections, a potentially big move for proxy battles. (
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CNBC
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)
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The W.N.B.A.’s recent fund-raising effort reportedly created tension among the league’s owners over valuation. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Sports Illustrated
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)
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Seritage, the real estate investment trust that emerged from Sears’s bankruptcy, is considering a sale; its chairman, Eddie Lampert, will step down. (
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3 years ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
DealBook: Biden talks business
From inflation to manufacturing and technology, the State of the Union was heavy on economic issu...