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March 1, 2022
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Investors are trying to figure out what Russian sanctions mean for the markets.
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<span class="css-hpkdsj esd8w5v3" style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
Taking stock
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
As severe sanctions against Russia take shape, economists, executives and investors around the world are trying to gauge the effects. Europe and its allies will wage “total economic and financial war,” Bruno Le Maire, France’s economy minister,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
said today
</a>
. “We are going to cause the Russian economy to collapse.”
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Markets have been volatile, but the moves in some global benchmarks have been more muted than one might expect. The S&P 500 appeared headed for a major fall yesterday, but ended down
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
less than a quarter of a percent
</a>
. (Futures suggest U.S. markets will open lower again today.) And investors have been seeking safety in bonds, pushing down yields to where they were about a month ago.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Investors are weighing the long-term implications of the sanctions,
</span>
which are designed to
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
undermine the ruble
</a>
and limit Russia’s ability to reverse the damage. Experts said the sanctions were based on lessons that the U.S. and its allies learned from 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea and the West’s financial punishments
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
proved an ineffective deterrent
</a>
.
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<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Elina Ribakova, the deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, called the sanctions “serious” and predicted Russia’s economy could contract by double digits.
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Others were more skeptical, saying that carve-outs for oil and gas exports would prop up Russia’s economy. “The devil is in the details of how sanctions are enforced,” Juan Zarate, a former assistant secretary of the Treasury for terrorist financing and financial crimes.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
For all the damage of the sanctions, the fact is that Russia’s economy is not that big,
</span>
accounting for
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
a few percentage points of global output
</a>
. (The Russian economy was a much bigger piece of the world economy during
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
its 1998 financial crisis
</a>
.) Still, the sanctions will have a noticeable impact on commodities where Russia is a key producer, including wheat, corn and metals like palladium and nickel. Airspace closures mean that shipping rates could jump, too. Major western multinationals generate a small share of their earnings in Russia (outside of the energy sector — more on that below). “The damage is likely to be small,” Adam Posen, the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said of the sanctions and the global economy.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The big picture: Investors face geopolitical risks largely ignored since the Cold War.
</span>
This adds to the fears over China’s worsening relations with the West and its crackdown on companies and Hong Kong. Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer of UBS’s wealth management division, noted in a report to clients yesterday that market sell-offs “linked to geopolitical turmoil tend to be short-lived.” But as any experienced investor knows, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Further reading:
</span>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Fiona Hill, the Russia expert who has worked as an analyst in Democratic and Republican administrations, has a sobering view of the conflict: Asked whether Putin would use nuclear weapons,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
she told Politico
</a>
, “Well, yes, he would. And he wants us to know that, of course.”
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Citigroup said it had nearly
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
$10 billion in total exposure
</a>
to Russia as of year end, some of which it may be stuck with because of sanctions.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
More companies and entities suspended ties to Russia:
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Disney and Warner Bros.
</a>
suspended theatrical movie releases there;
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Netflix
</a>
said it won’t carry 20 state-run propaganda channels; and
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
FIFA
</a>
effectively banned Russia from this year’s World Cup.
</span>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Crypto investors
</a>
have donated $22 million so far to the Ukrainian government and a nonprofit supporting its military.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
A Ukrainian yacht mechanic confessed that he
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
tried to sink
</a>
the boat owned by his boss, who he claimed was a Russian arms dealer.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
President Biden prepares to defend his economic record.
</span>
Tonight, in
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
his first State of the Union address
</a>
, Biden is expected to take credit for a robust economic recovery, even as he also addresses inflation and urges Congress to adopt parts of his stalled social and economic spending plan.
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Supreme Court justices appear skeptical of the E.P.A.’s climate authority.
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At a hearing yesterday, several of the court’s six conservatives
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
questioned the extent
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More pandemic restrictions are lifted.
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California, Oregon and Washington will
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lift school mask mandates
</a>
on March 11, while the White House will
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
end mask requirements
</a>
for fully vaccinated visitors.
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Investors sour on Zoom — again.
</span>
Shares in the videoconferencing company fell after it disclosed
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
another quarter of slowing sales growth
</a>
and a
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
gloomier-than-expected forecast
</a>
for its next quarter. It’s the latest sign that investor favorites from earlier in the pandemic are falling out of favor as the economy reopens.
</p>
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A crypto entrepreneur is charged with running a $2.4 billion Ponzi scheme.
</span>
Federal prosecutors accused Satish Kumbhani, who founded the now defunct BitConnect exchange, of
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
defrauding customers
</a>
who used his company’s “lending program.” Separately, Heather Morgan, half of the married couple accused of trying to launder billions in stolen Bitcoin, is
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
negotiating a potential plea deal
</a>
.
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Serena Williams raises $111 million for new venture fund
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Serena Williams’s early-stage venture capital firm, Serena Ventures, has raised an inaugural fund of $111 million that will invest in founders with diverse points of view, Williams told DealBook. The investment firm led by the tennis star, which will invest in pre-seed through Series A rounds, is already an active angel investor with a portfolio of 60 companies that include SendWave, MasterClass and Daily Harvest.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
“I’ve always been fascinated with technology and I’ve always loved how it really shapes our lives,
</span>
” said Williams, who has been investing for nine years. “When I met my husband, that was our first conversation. That’s how we met. I was talking about investments.” (Williams’s husband is the Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian.)
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Williams was inspired by a talk between Caryn Seidman-Becker and Jamie Dimon.
</span>
Onstage at an event,
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
</span>
Seidman-Becker, the C.E.O. of the security company Clear, said that less than 2 percent of venture money goes to women. “I go up to her afterward and asked, ‘Tell me about this 2 percent — I know maybe you misspoke,’” Williams recounted. “And she says, ‘No, it’s true.’ And I literally couldn’t wrap my mind around the fact that 98 percent of all of this money we’re talking about — billions of dollars — goes to one type of individual.” Serena Ventures doesn’t require that its founders come from historically underrepresented backgrounds, though it says
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
76 percent of its portfolio company founders do
</a>
.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The founding partners of Serena Ventures are Williams and Alison Rapaport Stillman.
</span>
Beyond her 23 Grand Slam tennis titles, Williams’s other business activities include
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
fashion lines
</a>
,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
entertainment deals
</a>
and serving on the
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
board of Poshmark
</a>
. Rapaport Stillman previously worked at JPMorgan Chase, Wasserman and Melo7 Tech. The fund’s limited partners include Norwest, Capital G (Alphabet’s growth fund) and LionTree.
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
“Would you like to sign in with your palm?”
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<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
— The Times’s Cecilia Kang
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
visits a prototype Whole Foods store
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
in Washington, which Amazon has packed with cameras and sensors that track shoppers in order to charge their account as they leave the store, skipping a cash register — and most human contact.
</span>
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<img class="css-17i7zb3 e1aggfhi0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F02%252F28%252Fbusiness%252F28russial-01alt%252F28russial-01alt-articleLarge.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1nUYb3:Vnjqsi-_T6vcY-rczGw4o97_Rh7WQ4yro0AQqRlrNmQ" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0"/>
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<span class="css-2zlgwg e1aggfhi3" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
The Salym Petroleum Development oil fields in Russia are a joint venture of Shell and Gazprom.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
The latest on Big Oil and Russia
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Shell said yesterday it would
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
exit its joint ventures
</a>
with Gazprom, the Russian energy group, a day after BP said it would sell its stake in Rosneft, the Russian state-controlled oil company. Shell and BP are likely to take financial hits worth billions of dollars as a result of the sales.
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The moves highlight the pressure that Western energy companies are under to cut their exposure to Russia as sanctions isolate it financially and diplomatically. But who will buy these divestments? At what price? (Relatedly, who will advise the sellers on offloading the stakes — and at what price?)
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Here is where the oil majors stand:
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
BP
</span>
said Sunday that, along with divesting its nearly 20 percent stake in Rosneft, its C.E.O., Bernard Looney, and his predecessor, Bob Dudley, have also resigned from the Russian company’s board. BP’s stake in Rosneft accounts for about one-third of its reported oil and gas production and a substantial share of its profits. BP reportedly considers a
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
steeply discounted sale
</a>
to Rosneft itself as the best option.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Shell
</span>
said yesterday that it would exit four joint ventures that it has with Gazprom and its subsidiaries. Shell is also pulling out of an oil joint venture called Salym IV, as well as ending its involvement with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Shell said it would take an unspecified write-off from the divestments, but also said it planned to increase its dividend and continue with share buybacks.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
TotalEnergies
</span>
said today that it would no longer invest in new projects in Russia, a move that
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
doesn’t go as far as its rivals
</a>
. The French company owns about 19 percent of Novatek, a Russian gas company, and a minority stake in a $27 billion natural gas export facility called Yamal LNG. Giacomo Romeo, an analyst at Jefferies, said supplies from the Yamal venture are vital to Total’s gas business.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Exxon Mobil
</span>
has produced oil for a quarter-century from the same area as Shell. How Exxon handles its Russian exposure represents one of its biggest tests since Engine No 1, a socially conscious activist investor, won three board seats last year. But compared with its rivals, Exxon’s exposure to Russia is small — only around 2 percent of its total global oil flow. That could make it easier for Exxon to divest its holdings (or deflect attention to what the other oil majors are doing in Russia). Exxon’s share price, unlike those of its peers, has risen in recent days.
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Deals
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TD Bank agreed to buy First Horizon, a Tennessee-based lender, for $13.4 billion, its biggest-ever takeover. (
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WSJ
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The F.T.C. is reportedly weighing a lawsuit to block Amazon’s $8.5 billion takeover of MGM. (
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Derek Jeter stepped down as C.E.O. of the Miami Marlins and sold his stake in the pro baseball team. (
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NYT
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Neil Diamond joined a growing list of musicians in selling his entire song catalog — yes, including “Sweet Caroline” — for millions. (
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NYT
</a>
)
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Policy
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Hacks by Russia amid the Ukraine invasion are testing Washington’s ability to work with tech giants on cyberdefense. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
NYT
</a>
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Pension funds are the latest to struggle with rapidly rising inflation. (
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WSJ
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Richard Blum, a financier and major political donor and the husband of Senator Dianne Feinstein, died on Sunday. He was 86. (
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NYT
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
In a new memoir, the financier Bill Gross says he was fired from Pimco for cursing out his then-boss. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
NY Post
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In a battle over bling, Cartier sued Tiffany & Company for stealing “high jewelry” trade secrets. (
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Bloomberg
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A fascinating analysis of what avoiding Russian airspace means for airlines. (
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@thatjohn
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)
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3 years ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
DealBook: Geopolitical risk returns
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