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   DealBook: How much can the Fed do?
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             June 15, 2022
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                  Protesting in support of employment rights outside the Fed building in Washington yesterday.
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             Awaiting a big move on rates
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             Ever since the government reported last week that
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              inflation had sped up in May
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             , economists and investors have been on high alert to see how the Federal Reserve would respond to the threat of surging prices.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Today, we find out.
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             The Fed will conclude its two-day policy meeting and announce
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              what it will do
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             with the short-term interest rate it sets. Before the higher-than-anticipated report on price increases, economists had been predicting that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate by a half-percentage point. Now, many Wall Streeters are saying that an increase of three-quarters of a percentage point is the most likely outcome. If that happens, it would be the first time in decades that the Fed raised interest rates by that much.
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              The causes of inflation have become a bit clearer.
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             Earlier this year, some economists argued that the central bank should think twice about raising interest rates to slow inflation. Rising prices, they argued, were a result of supply chains that had been snarled up by the pandemic, something interest rates can’t fix. But now that supply chain problems have eased, and prices have nonetheless continued to rise, economists are instead pointing to continued intense demand for goods and services — something the Fed has the tools to tackle.
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              So far, the Fed’s moves have not had much effect.
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             The central bank began raising interest rates in March from near zero to, most recently, 0.75 percent. But prices have continued to rise. That being said, the rate increases have quickly been felt in certain parts of the economy. Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan
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              reached about 6.3 percent
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             this week, about double what they were at the beginning of the year.
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              Inflation might actually be even higher than economists think.
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             Last week, the National Bureau of Economic Research
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              published a paper
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             that argued we may be underestimating inflation. Larry Summers, a Harvard professor and former top Obama economic adviser, was one of its authors. Some economists have taken comfort in the idea that inflation is running at an 8.6 percent annual level, still considerably lower than the peak of just under 15 percent in 1980. But the paper’s authors point to changes that the government made to the way it tracks consumer prices in 1983. If you apply the current methodology to economic data from 1980, it shows that prices were rising at about 9 percent annually, they argue. And if you apply the 1980 method to today’s data, you will get a rate that is pretty close to the 1980 peak. Just when it seemed we had finished recycling trends from the ’80s …
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              President Biden weighs rolling back tariffs on some Chinese goods to ease inflation.
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             While
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              lifting some levies on China
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             is unlikely to make a big difference, officials have conceded that they have few other options to address surging prices. Separately, Biden,
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              in a letter today
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             , urged major U.S. oil companies to increase refining capacity to ease record-high gasoline prices.
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              The European Central Bank is holding an emergency meeting to address market turmoil.
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              The urgency of the meeting
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             highlights the concern about borrowing costs for some European countries, as the spread between German bonds and Italian bonds hit its widest level since 2020.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The crypto lender Celsius reportedly hires restructuring lawyers.
             </span>
             Celsius, one of the largest crypto lenders, is turning to the law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer &amp; Feld for help with its deepening financial problems,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              The Wall Street Journal reported
             </a>
             , days after the company told users that it was pausing all withdrawals because of “extreme market conditions.” Bitcoin
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              fell to an 18-month low today
             </a>
             , and other cryptocurrencies also dropped.
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              JPMorgan wins a trial in London in which Nigeria sought $1.7 billion.
             </span>
             An effort by the Nigerian government to force JPMorgan Chase to restore funds that it claimed former officials had looted from a government bank account failed after
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a judge ruled in favor of the bank
             </a>
             . Nigeria had argued that JPMorgan had not done enough to safeguard the country’s money.
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              The real estate brokerages Compass and Redfin are laying off staff members.
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             The two companies said in regulatory filings that they were cutting about 10 percent and about 6 percent of their employees, respectively. The moves come
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              as rising mortgage rates have begun to dampen the U.S. housing market
             </a>
             .
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Wall Street bankers expect a rough road
            </h2>
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             Banking executives gathered in Manhattan this week at a conference hosted by Morgan Stanley. While they talked up the strength of the U.S. economy, they also spent plenty of time discussing inflation, recession and the plunging stock market.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Lananh Nguyen, who covers finance for The Times, highlighted some of the most noteworthy comments for DealBook:
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               bear market
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              for stocks and the threat of recession were top of mind.
             </span>
             “This correction, this environment — this is what we’re paid to do. I am totally relaxed about it,” said James Gorman, Morgan Stanley’s chief executive. “I don’t think we’re falling into some massive hole over the next few years,” he said. “I think eventually the Fed will get a hold of inflation.” But Gorman warned that things would be “bumpy.”
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Weaker equity markets are a bad sign
             </span>
             . “The I.P.O. market’s completely shut down,” said Navid Mahmoodzadegan, co-president of Moelis &amp; Company, a boutique investment bank, and so is the market for special purpose acquisition companies.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Despite the gloomy outlook, consumers are still in good financial shape.
             </span>
             Bank of America’s clients are still spending “pretty robustly,” and sitting on more money than they had before the coronavirus pandemic, said Alastair Borthwick, the bank’s chief financial officer. Gorman said corporate balance sheets were also healthy.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Lower fees will eat into revenue.
             </span>
             Bank of America expects to take a $750 million hit this year after it
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              cut overdraft fees
             </a>
             , which have drawn increased scrutiny from regulators. Wells Fargo anticipates that scrapping fees for insufficient funds will cost it $700 million, according to its finance chief, Michael P. Santomassimo.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Mortgage businesses are facing pressure.
             </span>
             Wells Fargo’s mortgage banking income is projected to drop 50 percent this quarter compared with the first three months of the year, Santomassimo said. Given the economic uncertainty, the bank is unlikely to release any money from its rainy-day fund, he said. Terry Dolan, U.S. Bank’s chief financial officer, said he also expected revenue from mortgage banking to slide.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “The tide has gone out in crypto, and we’re seeing that many of these businesses and platforms rested on shaky and unsustainable foundations. The music has stopped.”
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Lee Reiners, a former Fed official who teaches at Duke University’s law school. The pullback in crypto is exposing
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               the precariousness of the structure
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              built around digital assets.
             </span>
            </p>
           </td>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Uber and Lyft hit a red light in Massachusetts
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Gig companies like Uber and Lyft suffered a setback yesterday when a court in Massachusetts rejected a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              proposed ballot measure
             </a>
             that would have classified drivers as independent contractors rather than employees.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The unanimous ruling by a seven-judge panel halted the companies’ $17.8 million campaign to put the issue to voters. The measure would have given drivers some limited benefits but absolved the companies of the need to pay for full health care coverage, time off or other benefits that employees enjoy. The fight in Massachusetts came after a similar initiative in California in 2020 in which gig companies spent more than $200 million on a state ballot proposition. In that case, voters passed the measure, but a judge later found it unconstitutional. Still, the decision in Massachusetts is another sign that gig companies’ business models may not remain viable.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The ballot initiative might have succeeded had it not overreached.
             </span>
             It contained a provision buried in obscure language that seemed to try to shield businesses from liability for accidents or crimes involving their drivers. This section was unrelated to the rest of the proposal, the court said, violating a state requirement that all sections of a ballot measure be related. “Policymakers should pay attention to the reality that gig companies’ march toward a future with degraded worker protections is not inevitable,” Terri Gerstein, a workers’ rights lawyer at Harvard Law School’s Labor and Worklife Program,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              told The Times’s Kellen Browning
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Gig companies are taking their worker classification fight state by state.
             </span>
             They tried to strike a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              labor bargain in New York
             </a>
             in 2021 and recently
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              succeeded in Washington State
             </a>
             . In May, Seattle
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              passed protections
             </a>
             for gig workers, which
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and Instacart opposed
             </a>
             . Federal lawmakers have yet to successfully address the issues.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Labor matters aside, gig companies may find their businesses being
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              hit hard
             </a>
             by rising gas prices. Inflation is also pushing more workers
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              into the gig economy
             </a>
             as they try to make ends meet.
            </p>
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            <h3 class="css-132hdgt e8bxl341" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             THE SPEED READ
            </h3>
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              Deals
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Apple won the rights to
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                stream Major League Soccer matches
               </a>
               in a 10-year agreement that is reportedly worth $2.5 billion. (FT)
              </span>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The Washington Post and Imagine Entertainment struck a deal
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                to create TV and film content
               </a>
               . (Axios)
              </span>
             </li>
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               The head of the S.E.C. said proposed crypto legislation
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                could undermine regulations
               </a>
               that govern broader capital markets. (WSJ)
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               Lawmakers said
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                progress was being made
               </a>
               on gun legislation in the Senate. (Reuters)
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              Best of the rest
             </span>
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             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
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               A hedge fund backed by the investor Julian Robertson
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                has reportedly shut down
               </a>
               after around 13 years of trading. (FT)
              </span>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Progressive organizations are being
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                paralyzed by internal meltdowns
               </a>
               . (The Intercept)
              </span>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Meta, Facebook’s parent,
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                rolled out parental controls
               </a>
               for Instagram and virtual reality. (NPR)
              </span>
             </li>
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               Shares of the agency that manages the South Korean pop band BTS plunged after
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                the band’s members said they would focus on solo projects
               </a>
               . (Bloomberg)
              </span>
             </li>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Charles Kernaghan
               </a>
               , who showed how U.S. aid subsidized the construction of sweatshops in developing countries, is dead at 74. (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Bill Simmons talks about building a podcasting business and
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                trying to figure out video
               </a>
               . (Recode)
              </span>
             </li>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “Tech Hiring Is
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Still Bonkers
               </a>
               ” (NYT)
              </span>
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             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The chaos at
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                Eleven Madison Park
               </a>
               since the restaurant’s vegan relaunch. (Insider)
              </span>
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