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DealBook: Is this a TikTok ban?
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March 13, 2024
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Good morning. Today, we’re examining whether TikTok could actually be sold; the evolving thinking on interest rate cuts; European carmakers’ split-screen view on Chinese competition; and a generational shift at top venture capital firms. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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TikTok’s supporters have campaigned against efforts to restrict the company’s operations in the U.S.
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TikTok faces a crucial vote
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The House is set to vote today on a bill that would ostensibly present ByteDance, the Chinese owner of TikTok, with an ultimatum: sell TikTok’s U.S. operations, or have the app barred.
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But there’s a fight brewing over whether it’s actually possible for ByteDance to sell TikTok — or if the bill is effectively a ban disguised as a call for divestment.
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The bill
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itself never uses the word “ban,” but it frames the measure as a necessary effort “to protect the national security of the United States from the threat posed by foreign-adversary-controlled applications such as TikTok.”
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TikTok sees it as a “
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shutdown
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,” a characterization that the lawmakers behind it have
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contested
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.
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Here are the key questions in the debate.
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Does the bill allow for a sale?
</span>
<span>
It depends who you ask. The proposal forbids any deal that allows TikTok’s U.S. and foreign operations to cooperate on a content recommendation algorithm or share data. While TikTok says it already walls off the data of U.S. users from its parent company, it’s not clear the company could operate without any foreign support.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“All TikTok would have to do is separate” from ByteDance, the bill’s authors
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
wrote
</a>
<span>
to TikTok’s C.E.O., Shou Chew, this week. They accused the parent company of being controlled by China and urged TikTok to “stop spreading false claims in its campaign to manipulate and mobilize American citizens on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party.”
</span>
</p>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
A person close to the committee pointed to the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
forced sale of the dating app Grindr
</a>
<span>
by its Chinese parent in 2020 over national security concerns (though in that case the whole company was sold, not just its U.S. operations).
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Will China allow a sale?
</span>
<span>
Probably not.
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
</span>
<span>
In 2020, as TikTok was negotiating its first attempt at a sale to U.S. buyers, China
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
updated its export control rules
</a>
<span>
to give it an effective say in any deal. Last year, China’s commerce ministry
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
said
</a>
<span>
it would oppose U.S. efforts to force a sale.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
A spokesman for Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois, the top Democrat on the House committee that wrote the bill, told DealBook that ByteDance could potentially change its recommendation algorithm, which is covered by China’s new export controls. The company could also consider a licensing arrangement that works around Chinese concerns.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
What does this mean for ByteDance’s Western investors?
</span>
<span>
General Atlantic, Susquehanna Investment Group and others have collectively invested
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
more than $8 billion in the company.
</a>
</p>
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Continue reading the main story
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Regardless of whether the bill passes, if the Chinese government opposes a sale of ByteDance’s U.S. business, it would cut off the clearest path to liquidity. And if TikTok became unavailable in the U.S., it would be less valuable. Whatever pressures the investors are under, they are largely
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
staying out of the political fray
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
What are the bill’s chances of passing?
</span>
<span>
The political stakes are mammoth with just months until the presidential election, and lobbyists are directing their energy at the Senate.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
One idea insiders are whispering about is to fold the TikTok bill into the National Defense Authorization Act at the end of the year. That would allow President Biden to avoid signing off what might or might not be a TikTok ban until after the election.
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<ul class="css-9m6grc" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
In other TikTok news:
</span>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
The company was
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
blindsided
</a>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
by the new push against it; Donald Trump and his allies
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
see little upside
</a>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
in supporting the bill in an election year, even though he signed an executive order on the same lines as president; and
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Keith Rabois
</a>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
, the tech investor and Republican donor, threatened to cut off funding to Republican lawmakers who don’t back the bill.
</span>
</li>
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
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</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
President Biden and Donald Trump are officially set for a rematch.
</span>
<span>
Both
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
clinched their parties’ nominations
</a>
<span>
with primary wins yesterday, though they have been campaigning against each other for months. A wild card for the November elections: Robert Kennedy Jr. is considering Aaron Rodgers, the N.F.L. quarterback,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
as a potential running mate
</a>
<span>
in his independent presidential bid.
</span>
</p>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The Alaska Airlines plane whose door plug blew out was due for a safety check.
</span>
<span>
Engineers and technicians at Alaska were so concerned about a potential
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
problem on the Boeing 737 Max 9
</a>
<span>
jet that they wanted it pulled out of service for maintenance, The Times reports. The airline instead kept it operating with restrictions.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Apple makes an App Store concession in Europe.
</span>
<span>
The iPhone maker will let users in the E.U.
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
download apps from the web
</a>
<span>
, abandoning a longstanding prohibition. It’s another reversal in the face of the Digital Markets Act, a European regulation meant to open up dominant technology platforms.
</span>
</p>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Rethinking interest rates
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The S&P 500 has continued to set records despite fresh warnings on inflation. But that run could be tested as more prominent commentators are calling on the Fed to go slow on cutting interest rates.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Yesterday’s hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index report added fuel to calls for caution.
</span>
<span>
A consensus is forming that bringing down inflation to the Fed’s 2 percent target will be a long struggle, scrambling the central bank’s outlook on rate cuts.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Ken Griffin
</a>
<span>
, the hedge fund mogul, became the latest to urge restraint. “If I’m them, I don’t want to cut too quickly,” he said of Fed leaders at an industry event in Florida. “The worst thing they could end up doing is cutting, pausing and then changing direction back towards higher rates quickly.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
There’s more doubt now about a rate cut in June
</span>
<span>
,
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
</span>
<span>
even as markets continue to bet on one. “We think it’s a coin flip as to whether the Fed cuts interest rates in June or if it takes a more conservative approach and waits until September,” Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, wrote to investors yesterday. “The last mile of price stability is proving to be the hardest.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
After the inflation report
</a>
<span>
, Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Bank of America and RBS Capital Markets stuck with their June call. But RBS dialed back its full-year forecast from five cuts to three.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Some prices are cooling.
</span>
<span>
Food inflation was essentially flat, a welcome sign for consumers (and for President Biden, whose poll ratings are weighed down by increased living costs).
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
But other categories haven’t followed suit.
</span>
<span>
“Shelter” costs like rents, leases and new home prices, a huge component of C.P.I., remain above forecasts.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
More data points will come tomorrow
</span>
<span>
, with the release of retail sales data and the Producer Price Index report, a measure of how inflation affects businesses.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Europe’s carmakers split on China
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
European carmakers were early to warn about the threat of Chinese companies flooding their home markets with low-cost electric vehicles. But Volkswagen this morning joined the growing chorus of big German brands that have rejected government-led attempts to fight back amid a European Union
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
investigation into state subsidies
</a>
<span>
for Chinese carmakers.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The divergent views show the complicated reality of Europe’s relations with China and how hard it may be to maintain a united front, even as the U.S. considers its own restrictions.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Volkswagen pushed against imposing trade barriers.
</span>
<span>
“We stand for free trade. We stand for open markets,” Arno Antlitz, the company’s C.F.O., told Bloomberg Television. His comments follow a call by the head of
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Mercedes-Benz
</a>
<span>
in The Financial Times to
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic">
lower
</span>
<span>
tariffs on Chinese carmakers just as the European Commission is looking at increasing duties.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The reality is that E.V. sales appear to be slowing everywhere,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
even in China
</a>
<span>
. Some automakers fear that a trade war would make the outlook even more volatile.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Germany has been building trade ties with China for decades.
</span>
<span>
The world’s second-biggest economy is
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Germany’s biggest trading partner
</a>
<span>
, and the auto giants have benefited: Last year,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Volkswagen sold more cars in China
</a>
<span>
than any other company, and the market was a huge profit driver for BMW and Mercedes-Benz, too. (The French carmakers Stellantis and Renault, which called for E.U. intervention, have much smaller businesses there.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Europe is finding it harder to balance ties with Beijing and Washington.
</span>
<span>
The U.S. has pressed allies to prevent China from accessing sensitive technologies, such as high-end semiconductors. Cars are in the firing line, too, after President Biden
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
declared Chinese E.V.s a national security threat
</a>
<span>
and ordered an investigation into the tech behind them.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
China will be watching the presidential election closely for any hint of a split.
</span>
<span>
If Donald Trump wins, Beijing sees a potential opportunity to deepen ties with European markets, especially if he cuts backing for Ukraine.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“The estimate is that if Trump wins, Europe will be more inclined to talk to Beijing and hope it will help to end the war,” Yu Jie, a China expert at the think tank Chatham House, told DealBook.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
“It sounds like he has a voice thing on.”
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
— An unnamed Goldman Sachs employee messaging with a colleague about a Zoom conversation that was supposed to include a YouTube executive. It was joined instead
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
by an impersonator
</a>
<span style="font-style:italic">
from Ozy Media, the news start-up they were discussing.
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
The messages were disclosed by federal prosecutors
</a>
<span style="font-style:italic">
as part of their fraud case against Carlos Watson, Ozy’s founder.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Venture capital’s generational shift
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Reid Hoffman, Jim Jordan, Scott Shleifer — all have been in the top tier of the venture capital market, investing in some of the biggest technology companies over the past 15 years. Yet they and many of their peers are stepping back, making room for younger venture capitalists to find the next hot start-ups.
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Silicon Valley has undergone generational shifts before. But this round of changes comes as companies are taking longer to go public and venture capital firms are becoming bigger and more corporate. That’s making it harder for investors to
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Many venture funds have also grown so large that owning a stake in a “unicorn,” or a start-up valued at $1 billion or more, is no longer enough to reap the same profits as before.
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“If you want to return three times your fund, then a unicorn isn’t sufficient,” said Renata Quintini, an investor at Renegade Partners, a venture capital firm. “You need a decacorn,” she added, referring to a start-up worth $10 billion or more.
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The largest firms have migrated from providing their investors with profits from the traditional definition of venture capital — very young, high risk companies with potential for outsize growth — to a more general idea of “tech exposure,” Ms. Quintini said.
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THE SPEED READ
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Deals
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Social Capital, Chamath Palihapitiya’s venture capital firm,
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fired two senior partners
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and is said to have hired a law firm to investigate an investment involving an A.I. chips start-up. (FT)
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“
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Reddit’s Long, Rocky Road
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to an Initial Public Offering” (NYT)
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The agriculture giant Archer Daniels Midland confirmed that the Justice Department was investigating
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Martin Dolan, a veteran Wall Street executive, said he would
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challenge Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
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in New York’s June Democratic primary. (Bloomberg)
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Christopher Nolan will reportedly
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receive nearly $100 million
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for directing “Oppenheimer.” (Variety)
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Nvidia and Intel are among those
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as companies look to diversify their supply chains away from China. (NYT)
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1 year ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
DealBook: Is this a TikTok ban?
Also, Wall Street rethinks interest-rate cuts.View in browser|nytimes.comContinue reading the mai...