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   DealBook: The disappearing investment bank
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             March 22, 2023
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              Good morning. All eyes today will be on the Fed, which is set to announce at 2 p.m. Eastern whether it will again raise interest rates amid the tumult in the banking sector. More on that, and the continuing turmoil at Credit Suisse and other lenders, below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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              )
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                  A grim mood has descended on Credit Suisse’s offices.
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                  Michael Buholzer/EPA, via Shutterstock
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Credit Suisse’s investment bank may vanish
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             When UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse at a fire-sale price over the weekend, a big question was what would happen to the ailing firm’s investment bank. Months before the chaos that felled Credit Suisse, the firm had unveiled an ambitious plan to spin out the division, under the leadership of the veteran dealmaker Michael Klein, as part of its now-failed turnaround effort.
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             But it now looks like the investment bank will largely be dissolved, as UBS makes clear that it’s only interested in bits of the business, and as the Swiss government moves to bar some promised payouts to Credit Suisse’s bankers. What was once a top-flight shop of corporate advisers now appears to be a melting ice cube.
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              UBS probably won’t proceed with the Klein-led spinout,
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             cutting off the most likely way of preserving big chunks of the investment bank. Under those plans, Credit Suisse would have purchased Klein’s advisory boutique, combining it with its own division and eventually spinning it out under the First Boston name. (Klein, who was on Credit Suisse’s board, would have received $175 million for his firm and was paid an additional $10 million for advising on Credit Suisse’s plan — terms that some at UBS reportedly saw as
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              too favorable
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             .)
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             UBS is now weighing whether to end that deal and how it would do so, DealBook hears. The writing had been on the wall since the takeover announcement: First Boston would have relied on capital from Credit Suisse to help fund equity and debt underwriting, and the UBS deal now makes that impossible.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             UBS
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              has
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             expressed interest in
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              keeping some Credit Suisse investment bankers
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             in key industries — technology, media and health care, among others — to augment its own advisory operations and complement its core wealth management business. But UBS executives have made clear they plan to run down Credit Suisse’s trading operations and limit the size of its overall investment banking arm.
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              Meanwhile, other Credit Suisse bankers have fewer reasons to stay.
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             Unless they specialize in those particular sectors, their chances of being absorbed into UBS are murky at best.
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             Moreover, the Swiss government said yesterday that it would
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              suspend deferred bonuses
             </a>
             for Credit Suisse employees that were granted before 2022. (The bank can still pay cash bonuses for last year.) That compounds the pain for Credit Suisse staffers, who have already seen the
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              value of their shares
             </a>
             in their employer — as well as bonuses in the form of other securities linked to the bank’s performance — all but wiped out by the UBS deal.
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             This may make it harder for Credit Suisse to operate as though it’s business as usual, especially as anxious bankers
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              call up recruitment firms
             </a>
             to find jobs elsewhere.
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               In other Credit Suisse news, the bank went ahead with an
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                investment conference in Hong Kong
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               this week, featuring the T.V. personality Bear Grylls — and plenty of pathos.
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             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               In other banking turmoil news: Expect Jay Powell, the Fed chair, to face questions from Congress about why
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                regulators missed warning signs
               </a>
               at midsize lenders.
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                First Republic has hired Lazard
               </a>
               to help review its strategic options, while the government
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                weighs additional backstops
               </a>
               to encourage would-be rescuers of the firm.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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           <td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
            <h3 class="css-132hdgt" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </h3>
           </td>
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       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              An unexpected surge in inflation in Britain complicates a move on interest rates.
             </span>
             Consumer prices there
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              rose 10.4 percent
             </a>
             in February compared with a year earlier, accelerating after months of slowing down. That may undermine expectations that the Bank of England was close to halting rate increases as part of its inflation-fighting efforts; the central bank will announce its next policy decision tomorrow.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              China and Russia’s leaders deepen economic ties to blunt Western pressure.
             </span>
             The leaders of the two countries, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, pledged to increase both
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Russian energy available to China
             </a>
             and Chinese investment in Russia at the end of a summit in Moscow. The move underlines Moscow’s increasing dependence on Beijing amid the war on Ukraine.
            </p>
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       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              U.S. housing prices fall for the first time in 11 years.
             </span>
             The national median existing-home sale price
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              fell 0.2 percent in February
             </a>
             from a year ago, the first year-on-year decline since February 2012. Overall sales of existing homes were down 22.6 percent from a year ago. The figures reflect the consequences of the Fed’s interest rate increases, which have raised mortgage costs.
            </p>
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       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              TikTok’s C.E.O. will pledge to safeguard the data of U.S. users.
             </span>
             In
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              prepared remarks for congressional testimony
             </a>
             tomorrow, Shou Chew will say that the video app’s platform “will not be manipulated by any government.” Separately, Shou said in a TikTok post that politicians want to take the app away “from all 150 million” of its U.S. users; here’s why actually doing that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              would be difficult
             </a>
             .
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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           <td align="center" style="padding:0">
            <a style="display:block;width:1px;height:1px;max-height:1px;overflow:hidden;color:transparent">
             Continue reading the main story
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             ADVERTISEMENT
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Fox and Dominion push for a quick decision on a $1.6 billion defamation case.
             </span>
             Lawyers for both encouraged the judge presiding over the election technology company’s lawsuit against Fox News to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              issue a summary judgment
             </a>
             . That would swiftly resolve the case, which revolves around claims that Fox News knowingly spread false claims of voting fraud in the 2020 presidential election.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Google’s cautious entry into the chatbot race
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Google finally
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              released its A.I. chatbot
             </a>
             to the public yesterday, after spending months watching OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Microsoft capture the public’s imagination with their offerings.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The public testing of Google’s chatbot, Bard, which is available to some users in the U.S. and Britain, is an intentionally muted rollout that’s meant to show Google is in the A.I. game.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Google is playing catch-up,
             </span>
             despite having made A.I. a priority for years both within its own labs and at its
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              DeepMind division
             </a>
             . But ever since the release of ChatGPT in November, and then Microsoft’s unveiling of a ChatGPT-powered Bing search engine two months later, Google has been on the defensive.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             It went so far as to declare a “code red,” making A.I.-infused products a priority to keep rival services from eating into its core search-engine business.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              How does Bard compare to ChatGPT?
             </span>
             Google emphasized that its chatbot is an
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              experimental product
             </a>
             that will operate separately from its search engine. Bard can deal with simple tasks and questions, and it acknowledges what it can’t do or when it makes mistakes, The Times’s Cade Metz reports. That reflects Google’s more cautious approach, after competitors were criticized when their chatbots gave incorrect advice or behaved unpredictably.
            </p>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But the results are
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              hit-and-miss
             </a>
             , according to The Verge: While Bard is faster than its rivals, it still suffered from errors, and it lacks Bing’s extensive footnoting. Google’s also likely less than pleased that Bard reportedly declared that the company has a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              “monopoly on digital advertising technologies.”
             </a>
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <ul class="css-27qc8p" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               In other A.I. news: Bill Gates declared that A.I. technology was
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                as revolutionary as the smartphone and the internet
               </a>
               . And Reid Hoffman, the LinkedIn co-founder and venture capitalist, has written a book on A.I.,
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                assisted by A.I.
               </a>
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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           </td>
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           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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           <td align="left">
            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Will Trump be indicted today?
            </h2>
           </td>
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       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             A grand jury in Manhattan could
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              indict former President Donald Trump
             </a>
             as soon as today, and he has told supporters that he expects to subsequently be arrested. The prospect of Trump, who is running for re-election, being handcuffed is extraordinary.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             No sitting or former president has ever been indicted, and only one has been arrested: Ulysses S. Grant, who was
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              apprehended in 1872 for speeding
             </a>
             in his horse-drawn carriage.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The back story:
             </span>
             Trump is accused of paying $130,000 in hush money to the porn star Stormy Daniels via his former fixer, Michael Cohen. Prosecutors believe the secret payment at the end of the 2016 presidential campaign was intended to cover up a sexual encounter. (Trump has long denied any such encounter.)
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             In 2018, Cohen pleaded guilty to federal campaign finance crimes involving the payment to Daniels and pointed the finger at his boss. Manhattan prosecutors began investigating whether Trump’s business improperly accounted for this and other payments to Cohen by classifying them as legal fees.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              In New York, falsifying business records can be a misdemeanor.
             </span>
             To elevate the crime to a felony, prosecutors must show that the defendant’s “intent to defraud” included an intent to commit or conceal a second crime. In Trump’s case, that second crime could be violating election law: Prosecutors could argue that the payout was an improper donation to his presidential campaign because it benefited his candidacy by shutting down a potential sex scandal.
            </p>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Proving any charges could be tough.
             </span>
             Legal experts told The Times that New York prosecutors have never before combined the charge of falsifying business records with a violation of state election law in a case involving a presidential election, or any federal campaign. A judge could dismiss or reduce the charge.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             If Trump were ultimately convicted of a felony, he would face a maximum sentence of four years in prison, though prison time would not be mandatory.
            </p>
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2023%252F03%252F22%252Fmultimedia%252F22db-newsletter-vice-gpkl%252F22db-newsletter-vice-gpkl-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1peww4:oJwi7wHFlR86iM20fmsFbsYluIcQNvyEjcXiTqmsXqk" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0"/>
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  Shane Smith, left, and Nancy Dubuc in happier times for Vice.
                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Craig Barritt/Getty Images for Vice Media
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             Can Vice be saved?
            </h2>
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             Seven years ago, Vice was the hottest media start-up around, drawing both takeover interest from Disney and an investment that valued it at $5.7 billion. But the company has since faltered badly: It has fallen short of revenue targets, lost Nancy Dubuc as its C.E.O., faces claims of missed payments to vendors and more.
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             From Claire Atkinson’s
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             Ad-platform relationships with the likes of Facebook, Google, Snap and TikTok would consistently get to the point of shut-off, the former insider said. Another staffer told Insider his company credit card had temporarily stopped working, echoing reports elsewhere of a severe cash crunch.
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             Vice’s future is expected to be resolved in the next two months as shareholders and employees face a few scenarios: a sale to another company, a breakup of the assets or a bankruptcy.
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             One suitor, Group Black, has offered just $400 million to acquire the company, but Atkinson reports that there’s another potential buyer: Shane Smith, the Vice co-founder who is now said to be negotiating with an existing investor about a takeover bid.
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               Mike Bloomberg has
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                donated $5 million
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                group backed by Ben Cohen
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               , a founder of Ben &amp; Jerry’s, is behind a public campaign to pressure the U.S. to end military support for Ukraine. (Daily Beast)
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               “A New
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                Chapter of Capitalism Emerges
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                Inside the Union That Beat Amazon
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               Nibulon turned Ukraine into a grain-growing titan, but the war there has left the
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                company fighting for survival
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               . (Insider)
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