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   DealBook: The end of globalization?
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   Influential investors on Wall Street are warning about a permanent shift in the world order.
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             March 24, 2022
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                  Larry Fink of BlackRock says that countries are about to “re-evaluate their dependencies.”
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             Breaking up
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             The war in Ukraine has upended the global economy. Severe sanctions have isolated Russia, and supply-chain shocks have roiled markets for food, energy and other commodities. Some of the most influential investors on Wall Street say that these disruptions — which come as the global economy was beginning to recover from the pandemic — may have permanently altered the world order.
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              Larry Fink of BlackRock sees an end to globalization.
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             In his
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              latest letter to shareholders
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             , the asset management giant’s co-founder and C.E.O. writes that Russia’s invasion has broken the cross-border bonds between countries, companies and people that were already strained by the pandemic:
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             Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and its subsequent decoupling from the global economy is going to prompt companies and governments worldwide to re-evaluate their dependencies and re-analyze their manufacturing and assembly footprints — something that Covid had already spurred many to start doing.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Howard Marks of Oaktree predicts a similar shift
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             in
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              his latest investor letter
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             , citing the security risks of Europe’s reliance on Russian energy and the U.S. outsourcing of computer chip manufacturing:
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             The recognition of these negative aspects of globalization has now caused the pendulum to swing back to local sourcing. Rather than the cheapest, easiest and greenest sources, there’ll probably be more of a premium put on the safest and surest.
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              The war will have many long-term economic consequences
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             , the two note:
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               De-globalization will push
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
                inflation
               </span>
               even higher, Fink writes, forcing central banks to choose between higher prices or lower economic activity. And Marks writes that countries whose economies benefited from outsourcing will be hurt from any reversal. That said, Fink sees countries like Brazil, Mexico and the U.S. benefiting from more local production.
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The turmoil could bolster
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
                virtual currencies
               </span>
               , Fink writes, noting that the U.S. is studying the implications of a digital dollar. Previously
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                somewhat of a skeptic
               </a>
               of cryptocurrencies, he now writes: “A global digital payment system, thoughtfully designed, can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption.” (BlackRock is now weighing adding crypto and blockchain offerings to its portfolio.)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The two differ on what the war means for
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
                green energy
               </span>
               . Marks writes that countries will opt for more readily accessible sources of fuel, even if they’re not the cleanest. Fink, however, believes that shocks to oil prices and that same desire for national energy security will accelerate the adoption of clean energy.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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            <h3 class="css-132hdgt e8bxl341" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Oil may surpass $200 a barrel, top traders predict.
             </span>
             Sanctions on Russia and a lack of alternatives could lead to the loss of millions of barrels a day in crude that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              won’t be replaced
             </a>
             anytime soon, industry executives said at a Financial Times conference. “Wakey, wakey,” Pierre Andurand, a prominent oil trader said. “We are not going back to normal business in a few months.”
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              The U.S. will exempt some Chinese imports from Trump-era tariffs.
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             The move, which
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              reinstates 352 of 549 eligible exemptions
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             through the end of the year, was made amid pressure from business groups and lawmakers who said the levies were hurting American companies.
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              Big U.S. cities shrank last year.
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             New census data found that New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              lost substantial numbers of residents
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             , with 2021 being the slowest year for population growth in U.S. history.
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              More pandemic restrictions are being lifted.
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             Mayor Eric Adams of New York is set to announce that professional athletes and performers in the city would no longer need to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              show proof of vaccination
             </a>
             . And airlines have asked the White House to end
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              federal mask mandates on planes and at airports
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             .
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              Google allows apps to use their own billing systems.
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             Spotify will be the first app on Google’s Play store that can
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              bypass the company’s payments system
             </a>
             , avoiding a commission. The move was announced as Google faces growing antitrust scrutiny over its app store.
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3 e1aggfhi0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2022%252F03%252F24%252Fbusiness%252F24db-russianproducts%252F24db-russianproducts-articleLarge.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1nXLsu:o77OVvHr2JoOoQnMRrWyUvg8FBiFfO5C8AKUc1Xb8Xs" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0"/>
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg e1aggfhi3" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  Some of the companies pausing operations in Russia.
                 </span>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             The latest in the Russia-Ukraine war:
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             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The latest companies pledging to suspend some operations in Russia include
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Renault
               </a>
               , the biggest western automaker in Russia, and
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Nestlé
               </a>
               , which had been called out specifically by Ukraine’s president.
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                More than 400 companies
               </a>
               have now withdrawn from Russia, removing products that reflect the power of Western culture and commerce.
              </span>
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             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               One day,
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                three summits
               </a>
               : President Biden’s trip to Europe to discuss the war with allies includes back-to-back meetings with NATO, the G7 and the European Council.
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The Russian stock market
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                partly reopened
               </a>
               after trading was halted for nearly a month. Under heavy restrictions, the shares that were allowed to trade mostly rose, but the market overall remains well below prewar values.
              </span>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Vladimir Putin said that “unfriendly countries”
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                may be forced to use rubles
               </a>
               to pay for Russian oil and gas. Germany’s leader said that a
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                boycott of Russian energy
               </a>
               would “mean plunging our country and all of Europe into recession.”
              </span>
             </li>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               For up-to-the-minute news, see The Times’s
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                live blog
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               and
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                updated maps
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               .
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Will Wall Street’s bumper bonuses last?
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Record
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              deal volumes
             </a>
             and worries about burned-out bankers calling it quits helped drive Wall Street’s bonus pool to an
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              all-time high
             </a>
             last year, according to estimates by Thomas DiNapoli, the New York State comptroller. The average bonus for a worker in the securities industry in New York City reached a record average of $257,500 in 2021, up 20 percent from the year before, the previous peak. But these bumper paydays may not last.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The paydays are good for New York’s economy.
             </span>
             Bankers’ bonuses helped the city beat its forecast for income-tax revenue, DiNapoli said. (Employees in the securities industry make up 5 percent of the city’s private-sector work force but account for a fifth of its wages.) The securities industry accounted for nearly 20 percent of the state’s overall tax collection in its latest fiscal year.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              But Wall Street’s riches have aggravated economic divides.
             </span>
             The average salary of a securities industry worker in New York City, including bonuses, is now nearly five times as high as the rest of the private sector. According to DiNapoli, that presents a longer-term problem for the state. “In New York, we won’t get back to our pre-Covid economic strength until more New Yorkers and more sectors — retail, tourism, construction, the arts and others ­­— enjoy similar success,”
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              he said
             </a>
             .
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The boom may be short-lived
             </span>
             . With the economy facing rising inflation, disruptions from the war in Ukraine and other uncertainties, the money may not flow as freely this year. I.P.O.s have already taken a hit: There have been about $11 billion worth of U.S. I.P.O.s so far this year, according to Dealogic, compared with $314 billion at the same point last year. DiNapoli said the city’s financial plan for fiscal 2022 was based on expectations that Wall Street’s bonus pool would fall by nearly 17 percent.
            </p>
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           </td>
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       </div>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “We just have to understand what role it’s playing for you. Having some fun and exploring new things is a perfectly valid role.”
            </h2>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Cristina Guglielmetti, a financial adviser in New York, on her many “crypto-curious” clients. A growing array of investment options make it easier to put digital tokens alongside traditional investments.
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               But does crypto belong in your portfolio?
              </a>
             </span>
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                <img class="css-1rg59gv e1e3sevz0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2021%252F01%252F29%252Fbusiness%252Fdealbook-icon-percentage%252Fdealbook-icon-percentage-articleLarge-v11.gif/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1nXLsu:o77OVvHr2JoOoQnMRrWyUvg8FBiFfO5C8AKUc1Xb8Xs" style="display:block;width:100%;height:auto;padding-bottom:25px;padding-top:10px"/>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Artie Minson gets into the marijuana business
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             When Artie Minson left WeWork in 2020 after a tumultuous, five-year stint, including as co-C.E.O., he didn’t want another full-time job. But LeafLink, an online platform for licensed commercial sellers of cannabis, has persuaded Minson to join, DealBook is first to report.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             There’s “a greater good” in helping to shape the industry, which has
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a checkered past
             </a>
             and faces many legal hurdles, he told DealBook. Minson, 51, is joining LeafLink as president, C.O.O. and a board member, bringing his experience from WeWork, Time Warner Cable and AOL to help the marijuana platform grow.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Minson is no stranger to controversy
             </span>
             . The marijuana use of Adam Neumann, a WeWork founder, was among the many problems that sank the company’s plans for an I.P.O. in 2019, when Minson was C.F.O. Of his turn to “cannabiz,” his research convinced him that “there are very clear economic, social and, increasingly, medical benefits from the ongoing legalization of this market.”
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              There is “maturation and normalization” of marijuana
             </span>
             , said Ryan Smith, LeafLink’s co-founder. “We as a society have decided it’ll be here long-term.” LeafLink, founded in 2015, operates in 30 states and provinces in the U.S. and Canada. Minson bringing his executive experience to the industry is a “step forward for the cannabis space,” Smith said.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              LeafLink doesn’t actually handle any cannabis.
             </span>
             It facilitates transactions and provides data and tech for sellers, processing billions of dollars in orders last year, or about 40 percent of U.S. wholesale cannabis commerce. Not being “plant-touching” makes raising capital easier, Smith said: LeafLink has raised $130 million from Founders Fund, Thrive Capital and others. But because marijuana is still illegal at the federal level in the U.S., running a platform for companies operating under a patchwork of state laws is complicated.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              LeafLink won’t focus on federal legalization
             </span>
             , Minson said. Despite movement in Congress, the Biden administration has been
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              slow-walking its policy
             </a>
             . In the meantime, business is booming, in part because of legalization in
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              New York
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             and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              New Jersey
             </a>
             . Yesterday, the cannabis producers Cresco Labs and Columbia Care announced
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a $2 billion deal
             </a>
             that would create the largest U.S. marijuana company.
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               Toshiba shareholders rejected a plan to break up the Japanese conglomerate. (
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               A jury acquitted a former Boeing technical pilot of fraud charges tied to the 737 Max jet. (
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               “Mandatory Meetings Reveal Amazon’s Approach to Resisting Unions” (
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               NASA will seek bids for future lunar spacecraft from companies other than SpaceX, which won the initial contract to return American astronauts to the Moon. (
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