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   DealBook: The Fed stays the course
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   Also, the Justice Department’s TikTok pitch to the Senate.
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             March 21, 2024
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                   SUPPORTED BY
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          Good morning. We’re covering the Fed’s latest thinking on rate cuts; diving into the Biden administration’s pitch to senators on the TikTok bill; analyzing Reddit’s I.P.O.; and asking how to power the accelerating transition to electric vehicles. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             Jay Powell, the Fed chair, hasn’t said when the central bank will start cutting interest rates, but markets are betting on June.
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            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Pete Marovich for The New York Times
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          Three cuts are still in the cards
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          Stocks are again in record territory this morning after the Fed reiterated that it expected to cut interest rates three times this year despite facing a “
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          sometimes bumpy road
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          ” to bring inflation down to its 2 percent target.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          In a dose of good news for Wall Street and Washington, the central bank sees solid economic growth this year, and only a slight cool-down in the labor market. However, the Fed also said that inflation would stay hotter for longer.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          The upbeat outlook is dividing Wall Street.
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Mohamed El-Erian
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         <span>
          , the economist who’s been critical of the Fed’s messaging, said the dovish pronouncement yesterday was evidence that the Fed was willing “to tolerate higher inflation for longer” as it mulled reducing a prime lending rate that’s at a 22-year high.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Others warn that resurgent inflation could dash the Fed’s timeline.
         </span>
         <span>
          “Upcoming inflation reports will take on increased importance in determining whether the first cut can come in June,” Michael Gapen, Bank of America’s chief U.S. economist, wrote in a research note yesterday after the Fed released its policy statement.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          The futures market this morning gave an 84 percent chance of a June cut, up from 60 percent yesterday. (Jay Powell, the Fed’s chair, did not say
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          when
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          the bank might cut rates.)
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              A MESSAGE FROM MODERN TREASURY
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               There's a dirty little secret in finance.
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               In a digital world where businesses are automated and always on, finance teams have a secret: reconciliation and other tasks are still done by hand. Today's companies are limited by isolated tools and systems built for a different time. But a new era of payments has arrived, one where companies can move, track, and reconcile money in real-time using the Modern Treasury platform. Join industry leaders at the forefront of payments innovation on May 15 for Transfer by Modern Treasury to learn more.
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               Learn more
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          The Fed is at an inflection point
         </span>
         <span>
          , warn analysts at Liberum, the investment bank. Keeping rates unchanged could push the economy into recession. Moving too fast, or cutting more than three times, would push inflation toward 3.7 percent by early 2025, theywrote in a report this morning.
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        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Powell drew a similar conclusion. “The risks are really two-sided here,”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          he said yesterday
         </a>
         <span>
          , though he saw the go-slow risk as doing “unnecessary harm to employment.”
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          The Fed itself is divided.
         </span>
         <span>
          Ten of the 19 policymakers see the prime lending rate falling to 4.625 percent or lower by the end of the year. It would take just one defection from the dovish camp to potentially scupper the central bank’s three-cut outlook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Investors appear unfazed.
         </span>
         <span>
          The S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq Composite rose to record closes.
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             ADVERTISEMENT
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          Up next is the Bank of England.
         </span>
         <span>
          At 8 a.m. Eastern, it is expected to announce that it will leave rates, which stand at a 16-year high, unchanged. The Swiss National Bank
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          unexpectedly cut rates
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         <span>
          this morning.
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             <span>
              HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The Justice Department is reportedly poised to sue Apple.
         </span>
         <span>
          Federal prosecutors could file a suit against the tech giant
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          as soon as today
         </a>
         <span>
          , accusing it of blocking rivals’ access to key iPhone features, according to Bloomberg. It would mark a further escalation of the Biden administration’s crackdown on Big Tech. The last federal antitrust case against Apple was in 2012, over the price of digital books.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Apollo is said to have bid $11 billion for Paramount’s film and TV studio.
         </span>
         <span>
          Shares in the media conglomerate jumped 11 percent yesterday after
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The Wall Street Journal reported
         </a>
         <span>
          on the offer for the company’s crown jewel. But such a move would have to be approved by Shari Redstone, Paramount’s controlling shareholder, who reportedly
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          favors a proposal
         </a>
         <span>
          to merge her National Amusements holding company with Skydance Media.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          President Biden extends his financial lead over Donald Trump.
         </span>
         <span>
          Biden’s re-election campaign reported $71 million in cash on hand at the end of February,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          more than double
         </a>
         <span>
          what his opponent had, according to campaign filings. Separately, New York prosecutors
         </span>
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          questioned assertions by Trump’s lawyers
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          that he’s unable to meet a bond in a civil fraud judgment.
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         <span>
          The Biden administration’s Senate pitch on TikTok
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          An effort to force the Chinese company ByteDance to sell TikTok has gained some support in the Senate, after the Justice Department and other agencies briefed lawmakers on the app’s national security risks. (“TikTok is a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          gun aimed at Americans’ heads
         </a>
         <span>
          ,” Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, said after the meeting.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          More urgency to pass the bill would suit the Biden administration, a senior government official who was at the briefing told DealBook, and the legislation could go to a vote later this spring — but it’s unclear whether senators will oblige.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The Justice Department’s concerns about TikTok’s ownership include:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                The app’s collection of American user data;
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                TikTok’s proprietary algorithm, which is developed and maintained in China, where ByteDance employees are subject to government pressure;
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                And China’s increasing sophistication in its use of technology such as A.I. to spread disinformation.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          TikTok’s Project Texas proposal isn’t enough.
         </span>
         <span>
          That arrangement would see the American tech giant Oracle oversee TikTok’s U.S. data flows, but that addresses only one of the Biden administration’s concerns, the officials said. The only acceptable solution, they added, is total divestment.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The bill fills in a gap in national security oversight of TikTok.
         </span>
         <span>
          The app’s ownership is already being reviewed by the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States, the interagency panel that examines overseas deals for American assets for national security risks.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          TikTok was born in part from ByteDance’s $1 billion acquisition of the U.S. start-up Musical.ly in 2017. But ByteDance has argued in court that TikTok’s growth
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          didn’t
         </span>
         <span>
          arise from the deal, potentially limiting CFIUS’s purview. The Chinese company and national security regulators have been
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          negotiating for years
         </a>
         <span>
          on the issue. (The Justice Department consulted on the House legislation.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Federal officials played down critics’ concerns about breaking up TikTok.
         </span>
         <span>
          Beijing almost certainly wouldn’t allow the app to be sold and previously indicated it wouldn’t allow the algorithm, which allows the company to tailor content shown to users, to leave the country. Skeptics say a sale without the algorithm would leave TikTok nearly worthless — but the government officials argued that TikTok still has plenty to attract potential buyers.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          How fast will the bill move through the Senate?
         </span>
         <span>
          A key leader — Senator Maria Cantwell, Democrat of Washington and the head of the Commerce Committee — said that the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          House legislation needs tweaks
         </a>
         <span>
          , and that she favors holding public hearings first.
         </span>
        </p>
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        <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Is Reddit the new normal for I.P.O.s?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Reddit is set to start trading
         </a>
         <span>
          in the public markets today, after pricing its I.P.O. at the top end of its range, valuing the social media company at $6.4 billion.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Wall Street is regarding the debut as a success — even as Reddit’s newly minted valuation falls short of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the $10 billion value
         </a>
         <span>
          it gained in a 2021 private fund-raising round.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Reddit represents a “temperature check on the I.P.O. market,”
         </span>
         <span>
          Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, told DealBook. Its fulsome pricing suggests that investors are willing again to take risks on new offerings, as does the first-day pop in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          shares of Astera Labs
         </a>
         <span>
          , an artificial intelligence hardware company that began trading yesterday.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Those are positive signs for other companies said to be contemplating I.P.O.s this year, including Rubrik, a cloud data management company; SeatGeek, a ticketing platform; and ServiceTitan, a home services software provider.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The big lesson: I.P.O.s will still require a discount from previous valuations.
         </span>
         <span>
          Aside from some A.I. companies — Astera’s offering valued it at $6 billion, double its 2022 level — market debutantes will have to accept so-called down-round I.P.O.s. “Investors are still cautious,” Kennedy said. “I think we’ll need to see a string of I.P.O. winners before that attitude changes.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          A consequence: Some big privately held companies, like the payment processor Stripe, may continue to delay going public until sentiment improves.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Reddit’s largest shareholders are set to gain a windfall (at least on paper).
         </span>
         <span>
          The holdings of Advance Publications, the parent company of Condé Nast that’s controlled by the Newhouse family, are now valued at $1.4 billion. The stakes held by Tencent, the Chinese internet conglomerate, and Sam Altman, the C.E.O. of OpenAI, are valued at about $377 million each.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Not listed as a major holder in Reddit is Alexis Ohanian, the other co-founder, who is now a venture capitalist and the husband of the tennis star Serena Williams. (He’ll be
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          on vacation with his daughter
         </a>
         <span>
          instead of at the Big Board to ring the opening bell.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          One thing to watch today:
         </span>
         <span>
          whether trading will be affected by Reddit offering up to 8 percent of its shares to its most loyal users, many of whom have been
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          critical of the I.P.O.
         </a>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-1ux4czy" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “The harm was vast. The remorse is nonexistent. Effective altruism, at least as lived by Samuel Bankman-Fried, was a lie.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          John Ray
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          , the acting C.E.O. of FTX, on Bankman-Fried’s bid to the court for a more lenient sentence after the crytpo exchange’s co-founder was ruled guilty of fraud.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-1ux4czy" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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        <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          How to power Biden’s E.V. plan
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          During his term, President Biden has announced a series of big industrial policies, from the Inflation Reduction Act to billions in subsidies to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          bolster domestic chip manufacturing
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          His latest initiative is intended to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          turbocharge the transition to electric and hybrid vehicles
         </a>
         <span>
          , but it also raises a thorny question: Can America’s infrastructure cope?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          New E.P.A. rules will require most cars sold in the U.S. to be electric or hybrid by 2032.
         </span>
         <span>
          The rules will gradually limit allowed tailpipe emissions, but will give carmakers more time to adapt than previously planned.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That will essentially steer manufacturers to produce mostly low- or zero-emissions vehicles, which remain a small percentage of overall American sales. A record 1.2 million new E.V.s were sold in the U.S. last year, but that represented only 7.6 percent of total sales.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The electricity grid may struggle to meet demand.
         </span>
         <span>
          The National Renewable Energy Laboratory
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          estimates
         </a>
         <span>
          that there will be 33 million E.V.s by the end of this decade, and 28 million charging ports will be needed to power their batteries.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Energy use in the U.S. is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          already surging
         </a>
         <span>
          , and peak electricity demand could
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          rise by up to 25 percent
         </a>
         <span>
          by 2035.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Strategies are being developed to manage E.V. charging.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Careful placement of charging stations
         </a>
         <span>
          , such as at workplaces, and allowing utilities to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          stop and start E.V. charging remotely
         </a>
         <span>
          based on overall electricity demand could help mitigate pressure on the system.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Prominent investors and entrepreneurs are also betting on nuclear energy to meet power needs.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          TerraPower
         </a>
         <span>
          , a company founded by Bill Gates, will start building the first of a new generation of nuclear power plants in the U.S. this summer.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And OpenAI’s C.E.O., Sam Altman, who also chairs
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Oklo
         </a>
         <span>
          , a nuclear fission microreactor start-up that’s set to go public this year, is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          backing the power source
         </a>
         <span>
          to satisfy the world’s growing energy needs, including from A.I.
         </span>
        </p>
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          We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support.
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            <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             <span>
              THE SPEED READ
             </span>
            </h3>
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          Deals
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                Shares in Equinix, a data center operator, tumbled after the short-seller Hindenburg Research accused the company of being “
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                an A.I. pipe dream
               </a>
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                .” (CNBC)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                Donald Trump’s stake in his social media platform, Truth Social, is now
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                valued at about $3.5 billion
               </a>
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                ahead of the company’s public debut — but he can’t sell it for at least more six months. (WSJ)
               </span>
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                The Biden administration canceled the student-loan debt of nearly 78,000 additional borrowers, bringing its total forgiveness tally
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                to $143.6 billion
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                . (NYT)
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                The European Commission reportedly is close to imposing
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                for lapses in policing election disinformation. (FT)
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                “Mystery among the vines: Why is the FBI probing
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                some of Napa Valley’s fanciest wineries
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                ?” (L.A. Times)
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                , an Auschwitz survivor who became tailor to Frank Sinatra, Barack Obama and more, died yesterday. He was 95. (NYT)
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