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   DealBook: The Fed’s tough spot
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   A stock market dive complicates the fight against inflation.
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             May 2, 2022
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                  Consumers are bracing for higher prices for gas and other goods.
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                  Gabby Jones for The New York Times
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             A rate increase… and then what?
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             The Federal Reserve is meeting this week. The economy is running hot, and the Fed is trying to slow it down before widespread price pressures become even more of a problem. It lifted interest rates in March for the first time since 2018, by a quarter of a percentage point, and has set the stage for an even larger increase of half a percentage point this week. The announcement is expected to come at the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday afternoon.
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             But while the rate decision is unlikely to be a surprise, economists and investors will want to know how the Fed plans to move forward at a time when inflation is rising faster than it has in decades. The recent performance of the stock market, which in April took its biggest monthly dive in two years, is hinting at economic trouble ahead, and is the latest complication in the Fed’s fight against inflation.
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              The outlook for inflation is wildly uncertain
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             , report
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              The Times’s Jeanna Smialek and Ben Casselman.
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             On one hand, the Fed’s small rate increase has already pushed mortgage rates sharply higher, which may start to weigh on the housing market and cool off related types of demand. Nonetheless, costs for raw materials and other key inputs continue to climb, and may keep doing so amid the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. Already, some companies, like the washing-machine maker Whirlpool, are
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              seeing consumer demand wane
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             compared with last year, though it is still higher than before the pandemic. “Historic levels of inflation, notably in raw materials, energy and logistics, will impact us throughout the year,” James W. Peters, Whirlpool’s chief financial officer, said last week in a conference call.
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              Americans have been feeling the pain of higher prices, even if they are spending through it.
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             A
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              record share of people
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             in a Gallup poll named inflation as the top U.S. economic problem,
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              survey data
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             released last week showed. Officials spent much of 2021 hoping that pandemic-era cost increases would fade as supply chains returned to normal. Instead, inflation has remained too high for the Fed’s comfort for a year, and it has become broader with time. A higher-than-expected jump in wage data released Friday made a second big increase in June more likely “at the margin,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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              At the same time, the stock market has had a bad year.
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             The Fed has long said it doesn’t make decisions based on the market, but clearly the recent stock rout makes raising interest rates harder. The S&amp;P 500 fell 8.8 percent in April, and is down more than 13 percent in 2022. The drop shows many investors are coming to the same conclusion: The economy is about to take a hit, and everywhere they look, they see trouble ahead,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              reports The Times’s Coral Murphy Marcos
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             . “There are definitely a lot of open-ended and unquantified risks looming,” said Victoria Greene, chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth, an advisory firm.
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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              House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Poland.
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             Pelosi
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              met with President Andrzej Duda
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             today. Her visit to Kyiv over the weekend made her the most senior American official to go to Ukraine since Russia invaded. Separately, a British intelligence agency said that more than a quarter of the ground forces that Russia committed to the war
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              were now most likely “combat ineffective.”
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              The E.U. will propose phasing out Russian oil by the end of the year.
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              Restrictions on imports would be introduced gradually
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             under the proposed plan. A decision about new sanctions could come as soon as this week.
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              Nearly a third of the S&amp;P 500 will report earnings this week.
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             Investors will look to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Pfizer, CVS and Starbucks
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             for signs of supply chain disruption and how consumers are responding to price increases.
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              Beijing escalates Covid restrictions.
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             The sweeping new rules
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              stopped short of a full lockdown
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             , reflecting the government’s concerns about the economy and unrest over lockdowns in other cities. In the U.S., a Covid spike
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              has led to fewer hospital admissions
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             than in earlier waves.
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              Amazon gets a hearing that could overturn a union vote in New York.
             </span>
             Amazon says the conduct of the National Labor Relations Board’s Brooklyn office
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              violated rules
             </a>
             and alleges that union organizers intimidated workers. Meanwhile, the N.L.R.B. will start counting ballots today from workers at a second Staten Island warehouse.
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg e1aggfhi3" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  Warren Buffett on Friday.
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                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Scott Morgan/Reuters
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Berkshire’s big weekend is back
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              Berkshire Hathaway, the investing conglomerate run by the billionaire and investment legend Warren Buffett,
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               held its annual meeting
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              in person over the weekend after a two-year pandemic hiatus. Andrew was on hand at the event, which drew thousands of people to Berkshire’s hometown, Omaha, and has this dispatch.
             </span>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Warren Buffett, 91, and his longtime business partner Charlie Munger, 98, lobbed quips and retorts over the course of more than six hours onstage at what some call “Woodstock for Capitalists,” speaking and fielding questions. In the audience were Tim Cook, Jamie Dimon, Bill Gates, Bill Ackman, Mario Gabelli, Bill Murray and Glenn Close. Ken Chenault was there as a first-time board member.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The big difference this year was the presence of Ajit Jain and Greg Abel, Buffett’s successors, who sat on the dais with him and Munger for the first time. Jain was particularly Buffett-like in the straightforward and analytical way he answered questions, at one point admitting that Geico, the car insurer owned by Berkshire, had underperformed its rival Progressive, and explaining why.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The biggest news was likely that Buffett was
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              arbitraging the Activision deal
             </a>
             with Microsoft, betting it will happen, and had significantly increased his bet on the oil industry by buying more shares of the energy giant Chevron in the first quarter.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Here are some of the meeting’s best lines:
            </p>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “Inflation swindles the bond investor too. It swindles the person who keeps their cash under their mattress. It swindles almost everybody,” Buffett said.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “If you told me you owned all the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn’t take it,” Buffett said. “Whether it goes up or down in the next year, or five or 10 years, I don’t know. But the one thing I’m pretty sure of is that it doesn’t produce anything.”
              </span>
             </li>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “I try to avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad. Bitcoin does all three,” Munger added.
              </span>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “If I were running oil and gas for the U.S., I would leave most of the oil we have here and pay whatever the Arabs charge for their oil and conserve my own,” Munger said. “I think it’s going to be very precious stuff over the next 200 years.”
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “You ought to be a better person in the second half of your life than the first half,” Buffett said.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “In December, Wood described ARKK portfolio as in ‘deep value’ territory and sent value investors worldwide into spasms of indignation. ARKK’s down another 50% since then, so deeper value-er, I guess.”
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Andrew Beer of the hedge fund tracking firm Dynamic Beta Investments, in
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               a worth-reading tweet thread
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              on the recent poor performance of Ark Innovation ETF, the flagship fund of the star tech-stock investor Cathie Wood.
             </span>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Musk tears up the financing playbook
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Elon Musk’s financing plan for his buyout of Twitter has broken all the rules. He is putting up far more of his own money than is usual in such a deal; private equity buyers typically use very little of their own cash to pay for an acquisition. Borrowing money is more standard, but Musk is borrowing a lot — $13 billion in loans would end up on Twitter’s books.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The deal may burden Twitter with more debt than it can handle,
             </span>
             given its patchy profitability,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              The Times’s Anupreeta Das and DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch report
             </a>
             in a close look at the numbers. And Musk’s push for more “free speech” on Twitter could hurt advertising income, making it harder for the company to pay off its new debt.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              It is not too late for Musk to partner with other investors
             </span>
             to reduce the amount of his own money in the deal, and this is something he is considering, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions. Thoma Bravo, a technology-focused buyout firm, is open to providing some financing. Apollo, an alternative asset manager, also looked at a possible deal where it would extend a loan on preferred terms.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The stakes are high for both Twitter and Tesla.
             </span>
             Because Musk is selling Tesla shares as well as putting them up as collateral for personal loans to raise cash, Tesla’s value would be linked to Twitter’s. This is risky because any difficulties at Twitter could force Musk to sell Tesla stock and put the money into Twitter. If Tesla’s stock falls far enough, it would trigger clauses in Musk’s personal loans requiring him to add more collateral.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Will Musk’s unusual approach secure the social media network’s future, or will it end up squandering a big chunk of his fortune? That’s the question on many people’s minds, as details of the deal, which is expected to take three to six months to close, are hammered out.
            </p>
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             THE SPEED READ
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               Qantas and Airbus struck a deal for about $4 billion that could lead to the longest nonstop commercial air route: 20 hours from Sydney to London. (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Reuters
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               )
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               Yuga Labs, creator of the Bored Apes NFTs, raised $320 million by selling deeds to virtual property, and the strong demand disrupted the Ethereum network. (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Bloomberg
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               Embracer Group is paying $300 million for three video game studios and the rights to the Tomb Raider franchise, among other assets. (
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                IGN
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              Russia-Ukraine war
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               Chinese officials reportedly met with domestic and foreign banks to discuss how to protect overseas assets if Beijing is hit with Russia-style sanctions. (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                FT
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               )
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               Energy companies say E.U. red tape is making it harder for them to scale up renewable power and help cut imports of Russian gas. (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
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               India-based Tata Steel will stop buying Russian coal because of fallout from international sanctions on Moscow. (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                FT
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               About 10 percent of Russia’s tech workers are expected to have left by the end of May. (
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                WaPo
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               )
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              Policy
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               Apple is facing E.U. antitrust charges over its refusal to open up Apple Pay. (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                NYT
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               The dispute between Florida’s governor and Disney reflects a growing rift between Republicans and big business. (
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                WSJ
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              Best of the rest
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               “Another Firing Among Google’s A.I. Brain Trust, and More Discord” (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                NYT
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               In a bid to boost its Peacock service, Universal plans to send three movies straight to streaming. (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                NYT
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “How Technocrats Triumphed at Apple” (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                NYT
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               )
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Tech billionaires now shape the nation’s discourse and the online architecture that undergirds it. (
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                WaPo
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               )
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               The search for future tennis stars is so hot that an agency is now scouting tweens. (
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                NYT
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