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   DealBook: Tightening the squeeze on Russia
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             May 31, 2022
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             An oil embargo on Russia will take time to bite
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             Late last night, the European Union
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              agreed to ban Russian oil imports
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             arriving by sea by the end of the year. The agreement, which was reached after weeks of wrangling among E.U. member states, could cut into Moscow’s ability to finance its invasion of Ukraine. The embargo applies to most oil imports from Russia.
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              The key word in the sanctions package is “most,”
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             Geordie Wilkes, the head of research at Sucden Financial, told DealBook.
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              “
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             There’s no doubt that the whole sanctions package and this latest move from the E.U. will hurt Russia,”
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             he said. How much it hurts will depend on Russia’s ability to find other buyers — and how much “most” turns out to be, Wilkes said. The deal includes a temporary exemption for oil via pipelines.
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              The embargo could drive already high oil prices even higher
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             . That’s because it will put a further strain on inventories, which are already low and are likely to stay that way, given China’s expected easing of coronavirus lockdown measures and summertime demand for more power for air-conditioners, Wilkes said. The push for cleaner energy has meant that companies have not been investing in new equipment to bolster production, and this could further hurt supplies in the longer term, he said. Futures for Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose to a two-month high of around $120 a barrel today.
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              In the short term, Russia will most likely have no problem continuing to find buyers for its oil.
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             Buyers in
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              India
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             , the world’s biggest oil importer, are already snapping up Russian crude at bargain prices, and flows to these countries are likely to increase, analysts said. The damage of sanctions to Russia’s bottom line has been cushioned by persistently high oil prices.
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             Kpler, a firm that tracks petroleum shipping, estimates that Russian oil production actually edged up by about 200,000 barrels a day in May to 10.2 million barrels compared with April. Still, that was about 800,000 barrels below February’s daily levels.
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              Over time, the embargo will cost Russia billions of dollars a year.
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             Russia’s energy industry is poised for a broad downturn once the restrictions kick in, and as major oil companies quit the country and sanctions curb imports of Western technology,
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              The Times’s Stanley Reed writes
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             .
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             Caroline Bain, the chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, told DealBook that while Russia would find other customers, “it’s going to be a disorderly process, and that will keep prices high in the near term.” She added: “We’re losing the most efficient supplier of oil to Europe at the moment.”
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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              Shanghai is expected to ease Covid restrictions.
             </span>
             Two months after China’s biggest city fell under a lockdown that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              rippled across the national economy
             </a>
             , Shanghai is poised to return to something closer to normal starting tomorrow. The city released plans to reopen shops and malls and revive buses and ferries.
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              Unilever gives the ​activist investor Nelson Peltz a seat on its board.
             </span>
             Peltz said today that Unilever had significant potential and that he was looking forward to working with its management. Peltz’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Trian Fund Management holds a 1.5 percent stake in the consumer goods group
             </a>
             .
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              Senator Chuck Schumer tries to negotiate a compromise on new gun laws.
             </span>
             President Biden on Sunday promised the families of the victims in the Texas shooting government action on gun violence, increasing pressure on the Senate.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Schumer has raised expectations that a bipartisan deal on gun safety
             </a>
             , mental health and school security is possible.
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              Danone will send the equivalent of about five million bottles of nondairy infant formula to the U.S.
             </span>
             The shipment is part of a push to ensure that babies with allergies to cow’s milk and other proteins
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              have enough to eat
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             amid a nationwide shortage of formula. Nestlé’s C.E.O. said yesterday that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              no big shortages were expected outside the U.S.
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              New York City companies are opening offices where their workers live.
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             To make the return to work more appealing, some companies have
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              moved their offices out of Manhattan
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             , easing employees’ commutes.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             The candidate running against Elon Musk
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Dan O’Dowd, a reclusive software billionaire, is running for Senate in California as a Democrat and will be on the ballot in next week’s primaries. But the person O’Dowd is really running against is not a candidate, or even a politician, Blake Hounshell writes in The Times’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              On Politics
             </a>
             newsletter.
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             All of O’Dowd’s campaign ads are focused on Elon Musk and his electric car company, Tesla, and most of them claim that the self-driving software that Tesla uses is unsafe. O’Dowd, who made his fortune building software for airplanes, says he has spent the past seven years trying to get regulators to take action against Tesla.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              O’Dowd’s campaign is the latest instance of politics being used as a tool to influence business.
             </span>
             Last year,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the gun industry lobbied
             </a>
             the Texas Legislature to pass a law that punishes banks for, as the law puts it, “discriminating” against firearm companies. Lawmakers have also used their power to punish companies, particularly financial ones, that are trying
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              to divest from fossil fuels
             </a>
             .
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              What’s different about O’Dowd’s campaign is that it doesn’t focus on a hot-button political issue.
             </span>
             O’Dowd doesn’t even appear to want to win. Instead, one of the main reasons he appears to be in the race is to get a better rate on advertising.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Federal regulations
             </a>
             require broadcasters to provide steep discounts to qualified candidates for public office. But what O’Dowd is doing, experts say, appears to be allowed under election laws.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Musk is likely to be the focus of other politicians in the next election year.
             </span>
             For Democrats, Musk may make for political pay dirt. Musk’s plan to buy Twitter, and potentially reinstate Donald Trump’s account, has raised Musk’s value as a political target. He has long been a talking point for progressives, like Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who say billionaires don’t pay their fair share in taxes. In turn, Musk has bashed Democrats and recently said that he would now
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              “vote Republican.”
             </a>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “I was out to dinner and the person said to me, ‘What do you think of Buffett’s investment?’ And I was like, ‘What?’”
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Shari Redstone, the chairwoman of Paramount, on how she learned this month that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               amassed a $2.6 billion stake in her company
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              .
             </span>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Rethinking Jack Welch
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              In his new book, David Gelles, a New York Times correspondent, examines corporate America through the evolution of General Electric and its leader, the business executive Jack Welch
             </span>
             ,
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              from 1981 to 2001. The book, “
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               The Man Who Broke Capitalism
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              : How Jack Welch Gutted the Heartland and Crushed the Soul of Corporate America — and How to Undo His Legacy,” is out today. This interview with David has been edited and condensed.
             </span>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Do you think Welch got a pass during his lifetime?
             </span>
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Initially, he didn’t. Just a couple years after taking over G.E., he earned the nickname “Neutron Jack” after unleashing a series of mass layoffs that destabilized the American working class. What’s so remarkable is that he recovered from that — thanks largely to his ability to drive G.E.’s share price ever higher — and ended his career with Fortune magazine crowning him “manager of the century.”
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              In the
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               excerpt from your book
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              in The Times, you suggested that Welch’s leadership style led to the rise of Elon Musk. Why? Who is better?
             </span>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             I see Musk as the inheritor of Welch’s legacy as a brash, impulsive C.E.O. operating with a sense of impunity. But when it comes to their actual track records as businessmen, there’s a world of difference between the two men. Perhaps most importantly, Welch was a manager, and made his name and fortune by acquiring companies, shuffling assets and doubling down on finance. Musk, for all his complexity, is ultimately a builder, having created two thriving companies in Tesla and SpaceX.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              What do you think about Jack Welch’s legacy with female executives? He was criticized for not promoting them.
             </span>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Our former colleague Mary Williams Walsh wrote what I think is
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the authoritative piece
             </a>
             on this topic in 2000, just before Welch retired. The answer is: It wasn’t great. While the ’80s and ’90s were, of course, a different era, there is no doubt that as many more women assumed senior roles at big companies around the country, there were conspicuously few women in senior roles at G.E.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Do you think Welch’s influence on the business world will be reversed?
             </span>
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             We can’t change history, and we can’t change the last 40 years of capitalism in America. What we can do is chart a new path forward. It’s important to remember the rise of
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Friedmanism
             </a>
             , the rise of shareholder primacy, the rise of Welch and everything he stood for was a multigenerational project.
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            <h3 class="css-132hdgt e8bxl341" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             THE SPEED READ
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              Deals
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             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               GSK will buy the
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                U.S. biotech company Affinivax
               </a>
               for up to $3.3 billion. (Reuters)
              </span>
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               Richard Li’s insurance company FWD has reportedly
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                delayed its Hong Kong I.P.O.
               </a>
               (FT)
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               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Ripple and FTX
               </a>
               , two top crypto companies, are on the lookout for acquisitions. (CNBC)
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              Policy
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             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               In an opinion piece, President Biden writes about
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                his plan for fighting inflation
               </a>
               . (WSJ)
              </span>
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             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Several states are putting more money and effort into
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                combating false and misleading information
               </a>
               about elections. (NYT)
              </span>
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             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “How a Florida Power Project Flew Under
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                the Regulatory Radar
               </a>
               ” (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Deutsche Bank’s offices in Frankfurt were
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                raided by the police
               </a>
               , who are investigating accusations of “greenwashing.” (Bloomberg)
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              Best of the rest
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Wall Street’s losing streak ends
               </a>
               , but the concerns that drove the panic remain unresolved. (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The profits engine that drove stocks to their highs
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                may be working in reverse
               </a>
               . (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Ted Sarandos of Netflix talks about
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                the stock market drop
               </a>
               and backing Dave Chappelle. (NYT)
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Goldman’s new unlimited vacation policy is
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                less generous than it sounds
               </a>
               . (NYT)
              </span>
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