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DealBook: What Buffett’s exit means
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May 5, 2025
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Good morning. The day that investors the world over knew was coming finally arrived on Saturday: Warren Buffett said that he planned to step down as Berkshire Hathaway’s C.E.O. I was on the ground when it happened — read my take below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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It’s the end of an era as Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett has announced he’ll retire by year-end.
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A conscience of capitalism prepares to step off the stage
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It was closing in on 1 p.m. when Warren Buffett, seated onstage before a rapt audience of about 40,000 at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, said that he was getting a “5-minute warning.”
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To most of those there for the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, his company, it was simply a signal that the gathering — known as Woodstock for capitalists — was drawing to a close. No one knew that
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After 60 years of running the company he has called his painting, the 94-year-old Buffett said that he
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
planned to step down as chief executive
</a>
<span>
at year end. (Proving how much freedom he has always exercised at Berkshire, he surprised his own board and Greg Abel, his handpicked successor: “I want to spring that on the directors,” he said with a smile.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
People in the crowd, many of whom were in tears, rose from their seats in a standing ovation for a singular figure in the business world.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Buffett is often described as a symbol of American capitalism. The truth is that he has always been an outlier. He is more the conscience of capitalism, willing to speak uncomfortable truths about the system’s ills while others remained silent. (His
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
public comments on issues like tariffs
</a>
<span>
over the weekend are a prime example.)
</span>
</p>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The billionaire always comes across as a gentleman, and in an age of distrust he became someone people could trust. Fellow business moguls and government officials admired him because of his success, yes — Berkshire reported $89 billion in net profit last year, and it is one of the biggest buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds — but also because he didn’t appear to have changed despite his wealth. He lives in a modest house in Omaha, and for years drove his own car, including to the drive-through at McDonald’s.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Buffett isn’t perfect, something he often acknowledges, and he has urged his followers to stay humble as he discussed his own investing mistakes and misses. But that also got to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
one of his biggest accomplishments
</a>
<span>
, using his annual Berkshire letters and marathon Q. and A. sessions with shareholders to educate generations about business, investing and life itself.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
After the announcement, I was struck by a social media post from someone I wouldn’t have normally considered to be a Berkshire watcher, who perfectly encapsulated the importance of Buffett and his longtime business partner, the late Charlie Munger. “They were the good investors, dealers in reality, patient,”
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
wrote Nick Denton
</a>
<span>
, the founder of Gawker. “When the history of the rise and fall of America is written, one of the chapters will begin in Omaha, with their departure.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
As Buffett prepares to depart, the big question is: What will happen to his masterpiece once it passes to Abel?
</span>
</p>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
It has been apparent for several years now that on a day-to-day basis,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Abel is already running large swaths
</a>
<span>
of Berkshire’s operations, so the shift likely won’t be dramatic. But the scrutiny of “Abel’s Berkshire” will undoubtedly increase: The company wasn’t built just as a collection of disparate businesses, but as the vision of one man.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Abel has said he will seek to maintain the culture that his boss meticulously built. But things will inevitably become different. Berkshire’s board gave Buffett an unparalleled degree of autonomy to operate as he saw fit, often learning about significant deals he had struck only after the fact.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Abel will have to work hard to earn even some of that latitude, and under him Berkshire is likely to operate with more guardrails. But there is speculation that Buffett will remain chairman for some period, which could afford Abel more freedom as he grows into the top job.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Nevertheless, Buffett’s success, and the company he built, were exceptional. What investors gathered in Omaha this weekend, and the world over, want to know is what comes next.
</span>
</p>
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Markets brace for central banks and a busy earnings week.
</span>
<span>
On Wednesday, the Fed is widely expected to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
again hold interest rates steady
</a>
<span>
, potentially further irritating President Trump (though he seems to be
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
backing off calls to fire Jay Powell
</a>
<span>
, the Fed chair). Big companies are also set to report results, with investors focusing on further fallout from the trade war: Ford announces today; Disney, Uber and Novo Nordisk on Wednesday; and Toyota, AB InBev and Shopify on Thursday.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Stocks look set to snap a nine-day winning streak.
</span>
<span>
S&P 500 futures are down, with energy stocks in particular looking weak. Oil prices have fallen roughly 2 percent this morning — West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is trading around $56.60, well below most
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
domestic drillers’ break-even price
</a>
<span>
— after the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
OPEC Plus cartel shifted course
</a>
<span>
on Saturday and said it would increase production.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Shell’s shares jump on a report that it’s weighing a bid for BP.
</span>
<span>
The oil giant’s advisers are
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
evaluating a takeover of the struggling BP
</a>
<span>
, Bloomberg reports, and could pounce if oil prices (and its rival’s stock) fall further. The fate of BP has become a much-discussed issue, with Wall Street analysts seeing it as
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
a prime acquisition target
</a>
<span>
as it pursues a turnaround plan under pressure from the activist investor Elliott Investment Management.
</span>
</p>
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<tbody>
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<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Prediction markets versus the vaticanisti
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Betting on papal elections
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
may be older than the Sistine Chapel
</a>
<span>
. This week’s conclave involves a new twist: It’s the first time that major online prediction markets have turned their focus on the Vatican’s ancient selection process.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
And the wagers are flowing in. The Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin has emerged as the odds-on favorite to succeed Pope Francis, according to the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi. Even a report last week that the 70-year-old had medical issues,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
which the Vatican denied
</a>
<span>
, did little to dent that lead.
</span>
</p>
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<img alt="A line chart shows the betting odds for who will be elected the next pope." class="css-xsf469" height="540" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F05%252F05%252Fbusiness%252F05db-chart-final%252F05db-chart-final-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NDY0NDcyMjEuNzgyMzgwOH0:1uBuhZ:DhjjboxWMvHDwNccW_D0Q-Qxb9aoZ4zOdYmyiMtDet8" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But while
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
prediction markets claimed vindication
</a>
<span>
in correctly predicting President Trump’s victory in November, picking the next heir to Saint Peter’s throne is likely to be a tougher challenge, experts both inside the Vatican — known as the “vaticanisti” — and outside tell Bernhard Warner and Michael de la Merced.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The wisdom of crowds can likely go only so far.
</span>
<span>
High-tech betting sites “will never be able to break through the complexity, the unpredictability of the decisions made inside,” Franca Giansoldati, a Vatican specialist who writes for Il Messaggero, one of Italy’s biggest daily newspapers, said.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Rajiv Sethi, an economist at Barnard College who has studied prediction markets, noted that when it came to the presidential election, bettors were able to process a wide variety of information sources, including public polls and televised debates. The papal conclave — famously conducted behind closed doors and composed of an expected 133 cardinal electors sworn to secrecy — offers far fewer clues for gamblers.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Consider that a spike in the Polymarket contract betting that a new pope would be picked in 2025 took place after Francis’ death was announced, according to Sethi. Were there inside trading, someone could have made a lot of money. “We can rule out information leakage from cardinals,” Sethi said.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Conclave politics have been highly unpredictable.
</span>
<span>
In 2013, the odds-on favorite
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
was Cardinal Angelo Scola
</a>
<span>
; then-Cardinal Jose Maria Bergoglio, who became Francis, was on few short lists. There are also unexpected developments, most recently when Cardinal Angelo Becciu, who was forced to resign his positions after a financial scandal,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
briefly sought to crash
</a>
<span>
the upcoming conclave.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Again this time, the cardinals are divided, and many are meeting for the first time — factors that could complicate how long it takes before white smoke emerges from the Sistine Chapel.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Then there are other potential wild cards, including President Trump’s policies (which
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Francis frequently criticized
</a>
<span>
), Giansoldati noted. Could cardinals even be influenced by a Trump social media post
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
depicting himself in papal vestments
</a>
<span>
? Analysts have seen a kind of Trump effect
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
energizing national elections
</a>
<span>
around the world already this year.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
All that is unlikely to deter online bettors.
</span>
<span>
Kalshi’s main contract on who the next pope will be currently has about
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
$5 million in wager volume
</a>
<span>
. “So far, the papal election market is tracking to be as big as the Super Bowl,” which saw $27 million in volume, Jack Such, a spokesman for the prediction market, told DealBook.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
“Today, it might be that, you know, Donald Trump thinks he can take over the election system through one of his executive orders. Tomorrow maybe it’s the banking system. After that, maybe it’s contracts. Maybe he decrees, ‘I’m gonna decide which contracts are binding and which contracts aren’t binding.’ So, the legal system is fundamental to how our society operates, how capitalism operates, and everyone should have a stake in that.”
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
—
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
Marc Elias
</a>
<span style="font-style:italic">
, a prominent lawyer for the Democratic Party whom President Trump has targeted by name in his campaign against big law firms, on “60 Minutes.” Trump drew further concern when, during an interview on “Meet the Press” that aired yesterday, he repeatedly said “
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
I don’t know
</a>
<span style="font-style:italic">
” when asked if he needed to uphold the Constitution and guarantee the right of due process.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
The trade war goes to Hollywood
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Shares in Netflix were down more than 4 percent in premarket trading this morning as investors weigh President Trump’s latest tariff target:
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
films made overseas
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Never mind that Hollywood has a huge trade
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic">
surplus
</span>
<span>
with the rest of the world, and that it’s difficult to define how much of a major film is actually produced outside the United States. The proposal, which involves a 100 percent levy on such films, could scramble the economics for major studios and streaming services.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Elsewhere in tariff news:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Trump said on Air Force Once that he has
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
no plans to speak with Xi Jinping
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, China’s top leader, this week as the trade talks between the two stall. But he reiterated that he is willing to lower the levies that have
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
hit commerce between the two countries
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Many of the corporate promises to invest big in America, which the White House has said amount to “trillions of dollars in new investment,” are
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
wildly overblown
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, according to an analysis by The Washington Post.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
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</td>
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DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Or have the tariffs helped your business? Please
</span>
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let us know what you’re doing
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.
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We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support.
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Subscribe to The New York Times
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
THE SPEED READ
</span>
</h3>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Deals
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
President Trump said he
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
would give bidders more time
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
to reach a deal for TikTok’s U.S. division if no deal is reached by a June 19 deadline. (CNN)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“Anthropic to Buy Back Employee Shares
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
at $61.5 Billion Valuation
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
” (The Information)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
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</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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Politics, policy and regulation
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
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<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Just over 200 voters literally put Starbase, Texas, on the map, by agreeing to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
incorporate the community
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
that’s home to a major hub for Elon Musk’s Space X. (NYT)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Adani Camp Meets Trump Officials
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
in Push to End US Bribery Cases” (Bloomberg)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Best of the rest
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Satellite images reveal
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Huawei’s rapid buildout of chipmaking facilities
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
as China revs up efforts to bolster domestic production and shed reliance on overseas suppliers. (FT)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“Meet Yuka, the MAHA-Friendly App
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
That’s Driving Food Companies Crazy
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
” (WSJ)
</span>
</li>
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