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Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
What the market drop may mean
</h2>
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<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
The stock market fell 3.9 percent yesterday as measured by the S&P 500, closing the day nearly 22 percent below its Jan. 3 peak and firmly entering the second bear market since the pandemic began.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
What happens next? Bear markets — when stocks decline at least 20 percent from their recent peak — are relatively rare, but they frequently precede a recession,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
report The Times’s William P. Davis and Karl Russell along with DealBook’s Stephen Gandel.
</a>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The pandemic’s first bear market was a short one
</span>
: It took just six months for the S&P 500 to recover, aided by pandemic stimulus and emergency actions by the Federal Reserve.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
This one could be worse
</span>
: Investors are worried that rising prices could trigger the biggest interest rate increase by the Fed since 1994. Last week, the World Bank issued a dire warning that
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
global growth may be choked
</a>
, especially as the war in Ukraine drags on.
</span>
</li>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Retirees are more exposed to stock market downturns than ever before
</span>
: “There has been a growing complacency of people keeping most of their nest eggs in stocks,” said Monique Morrissey, who specializes in retirement at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Premarket trading suggests U.S. stock markets could rebound slightly today.
</span>
There is still some hope the Fed can strike the right balance between curbing rampant inflation and applying the brakes too aggressively on the U.S. economy. And it would be unusual for a recession to start at a time when unemployment is near its all-time low and demand keeps pushing prices higher.
</p>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
But right now, many are predicting a Fed overshoot, and eventually recession.
</span>
The Fed is likely to discuss a big interest rate increase at its meeting this week,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
reports The Times’s Jeanna Smialek
</a>
. Regaining some control over prices looks like an increasingly hairy challenge as
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
wage growth remains strong
</a>
, consumers continue to spend at a rapid clip and families begin to think that price increases might last. “Only way they can end this inflation is for the Fed to push demand off a cliff,” Rob Arnott, the head of Research Affiliates and one of the top strategists on Wall Street, tells DealBook. “Is the Fed going to destroy the economy in order to save it?”
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A MESSAGE FROM
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AGI
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A New Moment for Emerging Markets
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Is it too early to invest in emerging markets? In this note, we gather insights from Allspring’s Intrinsic Emerging Markets and Total Emerging Markets teams to make the case for active investment in this asset class now.
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Learn More
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HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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Charles Schwab agrees to pay $187 million to settle S.E.C. charges.
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The agency said Schwab’s robo-adviser, an automated service that creates and manages investor portfolios,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
made misleading statements
</a>
. The firm did not charge an advisory fee for the service — and advertised it as such — but the robo-adviser’s recommendation to keep large sums of money in cash reduced investor returns by about the same amount as a fee would have.
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Lawmakers want to require companies to disclose
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
new
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
investments in China.
</span>
A proposed bipartisan
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
</span>
measure would also authorize a new panel to review and block investments on national security grounds,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The Wall Street Journal reported
</a>
. It is part of a broader effort to strengthen U.S. competitiveness.
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Ukrainian forces are on the defensive in eastern Ukraine.
</span>
The last bridge leading to Sievierodonetsk,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
a key city that has been ravaged by Russian attacks
</a>
, is now destroyed, making it impossible to evacuate civilians. President Volodymyr Zelensky says the fight in Donbas region will go down in history as one of the most brutal battles in Europe.
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Elon Musk will take questions from Twitter employees.
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On Thursday, the Tesla C.E.O. will join a town-hall meeting at Twitter
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for the first time since he announced his $44 billion bid to buy the company
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.
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Exclusive: Jonathan Nelson and Don Cornwell’s next sports bet
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Jonathan Nelson, founder of Providence Equity Partners, and Don Cornwell, a partner at the investment bank PJT Partners, are starting a new investment firm called Dynasty, DealBook is first to report. The firm, which aims to raise more than $1 billion, will invest in professional sports teams around the globe. Nelson will remain executive chairman of Providence, and Cornwall will remain affiliated with PJT.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The firm is trying to profit from a new asset class
</span>
:
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
</span>
minority investments in professional sports.
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
</span>
Sports leagues have
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
been increasingly adjusting their bylaws
</a>
to allow for private equity investment, in part in response to the pressure the pandemic put on the industry. Historically, though, investing in teams was limited to wealthy families and individuals, who were often mostly interested in perks like courtside seats. Pension funds, meanwhile, have rarely had access. Nelson is the most prominent executive in private equity to lead a fund exclusively focused on minority stakes in teams. (Dyal has a
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
fund
</a>
that invests exclusively in NBA teams, while other investors like
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Arctos Sports
</a>
have emerged too.) And Dynasty says Cornwell is the first Black co-owner of a fund of this kind. The firm has hired about 10 employees from companies including Blackstone and Silver Lake.
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Both Nelson and Cornwell have long histories with professional sports teams.
</span>
At Providence, Nelson
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
</span>
made the original investment in Y.E.S., the Yankees’ pay television network, which was copied throughout baseball. He also helped create Hulu, which ultimately brought together Disney, Fox and Comcast as partners. Cornwell, who will become C.E.O. of the new firm, has been a sports banker for decades, working on deals that included the recapitalization of the Tennessee Titans and the sale of the Buffalo Bills.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The new firm is the latest example of money flooding into sports
</span>
. There were more than $1 trillion worth of deals last year,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
according to PitchBook,
</a>
$2 billion of which was spent by private equity. Last year, Arctos Sports took a 13 percent stake in the Golden State Warriors that
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
reportedly valued the team
</a>
at roughly $5.5 billion. Earlier this month, Rob Walton and members of the Walton and Penner families
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
paid $4.65 billion to buy the Denver Broncos
</a>
— more than twice the price of the previous record for an N.F.L. franchise.
</p>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
Crypto’s loudest influencers go silent
</h2>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
The sudden suspension of withdrawals by the lending platform Celsius started a crypto market meltdown yesterday.
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Celsius works
</a>
by lending out its customers’ Ethereum deposits to invest in decentralized finance projects and offering extreme yields, as high as 18 percent. But its high yields required another cryptocurrency, stETH, to maintain its close peg to Ethereum. The two became unglued. Late on Sunday, Celsius announced it was
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
freezing withdrawals
</a>
, prompting a sell-off that exacerbated the recent downward spiral of crypto prices in general.
</p>
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More unsettling announcements soon followed. A Celsius competitor, BlockFi, said it was laying off 20 percent of its employees amid economic difficulties. The exchange Crypto.com said it would let go of about 260 employees for similar reasons. This morning, Coinbase C.E.O. Brian Armstrong announced that the crypto exchange would lay off
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
18 percent of its employees
</a>
, or about 1,100 people. It has all left a strange hush over the usually lively crypto Twitter community and the celebrities who have promoted digital assets — including Matt Damon, who likened investing to space travel in an ad for Crypto.com last year and said “fortune favors the brave.”
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
“I refuse to believe Matt Damon was wrong about investing advice,” Aaron Levie, C.E.O. of the cloud computing company Box,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
mused on Twitter yesterday
</a>
. But the brave were muted.
</p>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Who isn’t talking for a change?
</span>
</p>
</td>
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</tbody>
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<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
The Tesla chief
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Elon Musk
</span>
, an avid tweeter and crypto influencer, kept
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
uncharacteristically mum
</a>
on Monday. What was once $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
in the company’s coffers
</a>
has over time dwindled in value to about $965 million.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Michael Saylor
</span>
, C.E.O. of the software company MicroStrategy,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
reiterated his faith
</a>
in Bitcoin with an updated “laser eyes” profile picture, signifying steadfastness as he faced a double hit. Nearly $4 billion worth of Bitcoin in MicroStrategy’s treasury has fallen in value to below $3 billion, and the stock price has slumped ahead of a
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
potential margin call
</a>
should Bitcoin fall to $21,000.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Block’s C.E.O.,
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Jack Dorsey
</span>
, considered
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Bitcoin’s spiritual leader
</a>
by many, faced his company’s Bitcoin investment losses of more than $40 million with contemplative silence.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
As for all the
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
other celebrities
</span>
who have promoted crypto — LeBron James, Tom Brady, Kim Kardashian, Reese Witherspoon, Gwyneth Paltrow and Giselle Bunchen, to name just a few — they have been “
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
mad silent
</a>
,” as one Twitter user put it.
</span>
</li>
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“Even when adjusting for inflation, gas prices are at levels rarely seen in the last 50 years.”
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
—The Times’s Ella Koeze and Clifford Krauss explain
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
why gas prices are so high
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
.
</span>
</p>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
China turns to mass testing
</h2>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
In major cities across China, even where there are no reported coronavirus cases, residents are being required to present a negative P.C.R. test to go shopping, ride the subway or bus, or participate in public activities,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
writes The Times’s Alexandra Stevenson
</a>
.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
China is the last country in the world that is trying to eliminate Covid
</span>
, but the spread of the highly contagious Omicron variant is challenging its strategy of mass lockdowns and quarantines. The country already uses apps to surveil its citizens and track infections, and it imposes stringent lockdowns and centralized quarantines for confirmed cases and close contacts.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Mass testing can be expensive, time-consuming and may hamper efforts to revive the economy.
</span>
Workers say the time required to get tested is cutting into their pay. Local governments are taking money from poverty alleviation projects to pay for testing. Businesses are concerned that the requirement will hurt productivity, and economists worry people will stay home to avoid the bother.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, has ordered the country to “unswervingly” stick to the zero-Covid strategy.
</span>
Dozens of officials have been fired for mishandling outbreaks, making any effort to loosen restrictions politically risky.
</p>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The approach has fed public anger in some places.
</span>
Last night, frustrated residents in Shanghai’s northeastern district of Yangpu banged on pots and shouted “End the lockdown!” after their compound was locked down over the weekend, said Jaap Grolleman, a Dutch teacher who lives in the neighborhood. “People are worried about taking the subway or going to the shopping mall,” said Grolleman.
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<h3 class="css-132hdgt e8bxl341" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
THE SPEED READ
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Deals
</span>
</p>
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</tbody>
</table>
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<ul class="css-27qc8p e1darl2c0" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
The warehouse giant Prologis will buy Duke Realty in
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
a $26 billion deal
</a>
. (WSJ)
</span>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
TotalEnergies will buy a 25 percent stake in Adani New Industries, as part of a plan to invest $5 billion to produce
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
green hydrogen in India
</a>
. (Bloomberg)
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Policy
</span>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
On Russia, Europe weighs a harder fight or a
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
push for peace
</a>
. (NYT)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
A Republican senator asked whether HSBC was pressured to suspend an executive who
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
downplayed the risks of climate change
</a>
. (FT)
</span>
</li>
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2 years, 11 months ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
What the second bear market since the start of the pandemic might signal. View in browser|nytimes...