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   The strange, swift spread of monkeypox
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             May 23, 2022
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              Good morning. Greetings from Davos, where the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting is getting underway. I’ve been on the ground for only 24 hours, but the mood among the C.E.O. crowd is downright anxious and dour about the economy. Many comparisons to the 1970s are being made, with some referring to 2001. In any case, there is a sense that inflation will remain persistently high and that a recovery will take many years. That’s the “Davos Consensus” — but don’t fear it. The Davos Consensus has often been a contra-indicator for the future. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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             ‘Everybody should be concerned’
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             Monkeypox,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a rare virus
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             usually confined to West and Central Africa, seems to be complicating prospects of any return to normalcy. In his
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              first public remarks
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             on the outbreak, President Biden said that monkeypox was concerning and that “if it were to spread, it would be consequential.” The statement came after New York City said it had tested two residents for monkeypox. Last week, a Massachusetts resident tested positive for the virus.
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             And the World Health Organization said yesterday it was expanding surveillance, after noting over 90 confirmed cases reported from 12 member states
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              where the virus is not endemic
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             .
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              Monkeypox might threaten economic comeback plans
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             , adding one more factor in risk calculations about gatherings. Rising Covid cases had already caused some companies to (again) push back their deadlines for return-to-office plans. And last week, Mayor Eric Adams of New York urged the city’s business leaders to
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              ride the subway
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             to encourage workers to return to the office.
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              But it’s not another Covid-like pandemic.
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             The risk to the public is low, health officials say. Monkeypox is believed to spread through intimate skin-on-skin contact with someone who has an active rash. It can also spread through body fluids and respiratory droplets, but it is not as contagious or dangerous as the coronavirus, health officials say. When individuals are contagious, they tend to have the body sores that are a telltale sign of monkeypox. What’s more, monkeypox is well-known among researchers and was first detected in humans in the 1970s. Officials are saying that the U.S. would have to see a large number of cases clustered in one area of the country before social-distancing restrictions would be put in place.
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              Vaccines are already available.
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             The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says there is no safe treatment for monkeypox, but the F.D.A. has already approved a vaccine specifically for the virus. The Danish biotech company Bavarian Nordic,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              which recently signed a new contract
             </a>
             with the U.S. government, has already produced 1.4 million doses for use in the U.S. And the company says it has enough raw materials to produce many more doses, though it has not said cited a specific quantity. In addition, health officials say that vaccines for smallpox, including ACAM2000, could be effective in protecting against monkeypox. That drug is made by Emergent BioSolutions, a longtime government contractor that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              has been the subject of investigations
             </a>
             after its botched production of vaccines for Covid. The C.D.C. says it has enough doses of smallpox vaccine in its strategic reserve to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              immunize the entire U.S. population
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             .
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              Mask-wearing will probably continue for now.
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             In New York, the mayor was already facing pressure to reinstate the indoor mask mandate, because of the recent rise in Covid cases. Now, many health experts are saying masks can reduce the spread of monkeypox, as well. Most important, city health officials
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              said in a statement last week
             </a>
             that those with flulike symptoms, swollen lymph nodes, and face and body rashes should also contact a health care provider as a precaution.
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              Broadcom is reportedly in advanced talks to buy VMware.
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             The acquisition by Broadcom, a semiconductor powerhouse, of the cloud-computing company VMware would allow it to build its presence in the corporate software market amid surging demand for cloud computing. If the deal goes through,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              it would be among the biggest of the year
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              Biden says the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China invaded.
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             Biden’s comments, which came at a news conference with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan during a visit to Tokyo,
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              surprised some members of his own administration
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             who were in the room. The U.S. has in the past warned China against using force against Taiwan while remaining vague about how far it would go to aid the island in such a circumstance.
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              A Times investigation examines Jared Kushner’s and Steven Mnuchin’s business ties in the Gulf
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             . After the two men traveled around the Middle East in the final months of the Trump administration to raise money for a U.S. government-sponsored program called the Abraham Fund,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              each quickly launched a private fund
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             that in some ways picked up where that fund had ended. The Times investigation raises questions about whether Kushner and Mnuchin exploited official relationships with foreign leaders for private business interests.
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              A vote by Activision workers could give unions a foothold in gaming.
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             Discontent over long hours, poor pay, temporary contracts and sexual harassment issues at video game companies has been growing for years. If the employees at an Activision subsidiary vote later today to unionize, it could pave the way for the formation of
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the first union at a big U.S. gaming company
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              Beijing extends its work-from-home guidance.
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             The
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             </span>
             Chinese authorities recorded 99 new coronavirus cases in Beijing yesterday,
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              the highest daily tally of a month-old outbreak
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             . Officials in Shanghai deployed more testing and additional restrictions to curb an outbreak there. The restrictions have had significant economic consequences, including disruptions to global supply chains.
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             ‘Default Alive’: A survival guide for Silicon Valley
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Late last week, Y Combinator, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm that has invested in hundreds of start-ups in their early stages including Airbnb, Coinbase and Reddit, sent an urgent letter to the companies that are currently in its portfolio. Bottom line: Winter is here. “The safe move is to plan for the worst,” the firm wrote in the letter, which was titled “Economic Downturn” and structured as a survival guide. “Your goal should be to get to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Default Alive
             </a>
             .” The term refers to a point at which a start-up has raised enough money to make it to profitability, without going bust.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              A dire outlook for funding rounds.
             </span>
             Y Combinator’s message to start-up founders who are planning to raise money in the next six to 12 months: “We recommend you change your plan.” The letter advised young companies to cut costs to ensure that their companies can survive without funding rounds for the next 24 months. It also warned founders that VC firms will take meetings even when they are not planning on investing in any new companies.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              A shift in strategy among start-ups and their funders.
             </span>
             The letter is another sign of the current pessimism in Silicon Valley, which is typically a pretty sunny place. Until recently, tech companies would set their sights on acquiring customers and market share in their early years rather than worry about the bottom line. But suddenly, VC firms are warning that the additional rounds of investment that start-ups have traditionally received, and many probably assumed that they would be getting, may no longer be an option. Tech Crunch, the news site that was first to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              report Y Combinator’s warning letter
             </a>
             , said other VC firms had recently been sending their own versions.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The pullback of VC firms follows the recent drop in the stock market.
             </span>
             The market looks set to rebound this morning, but before today the S&amp;P 500 broad market index has fallen seven weeks in a row, which is the longest streak since 2001, and it is now down by nearly 19 percent from its peak. Technology stocks have generally been down more than the rest of the market, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite nearly 30 percent off its high. A re-evaluation of tech stocks appears to be working its way down the funding chain, all the way to start-ups.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “Jack was the rock star C.E.O. of my era. We all thought Jack was doing everything right and that success was defined by meeting quarterly earnings to the penny.”
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             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Lynn Forester de Rothschild, one of the rare female media moguls of the 1980s, on Jack Welch, the longtime chief executive of G.E. who redefined
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               what it meant to be a boss
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              .
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             Numbers say C.E.O.s should still speak out
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             Florida’s move last month
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              to punish Disney
             </a>
             after the media giant condemned a new state law widely seen as anti-L.G.B.T.Q. led many to predict that companies and their C.E.O.s would retreat from taking stances on political and social issues.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              But business leaders say they should continue speaking up for democratic ideals,
             </span>
             according to a poll released today.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              The poll by a new initiative
             </a>
             formed by three nonprofit organizations — Public Private Strategies, Leadership Now Project and the Black Economic Alliance — found that three-quarters of the more than 400 business leaders surveyed thought companies should influence democracy policy at both the state and federal levels. The survey was taken after the Disney uproar, which David Clunie of the Black Economic Alliance says has created a “very real” backlash against corporate America on weighing in on political issues. “We’re trying to create a space where retaliation is impossible,” Clunie said, adding that the point of the new initiative, called
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the Business and Democracy Initiative
             </a>
             , is to bring companies together to be stronger in numbers.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              A majority of people also believe C.E.O.s have a responsibility to speak out
             </span>
             on such issues as climate change and discrimination
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              .
             </span>
             That’s the finding of
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              another survey
             </a>
             out today by the public relations firm Edelman. The survey, which was conducted in April and May of 14,000 people across 14 countries, is a midyear update to the annual Edelman Trust Barometer released in conjunction with this week’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              World Economic Forum
             </a>
             . Overall, 77 percent of respondents said C.E.O.s have a responsibility to address societal issues, and 68 percent said they thought business leaders should help shape policy, specifically on discrimination and prejudice. The study also found that companies that boycotted Russia saw an increase in employee loyalty and consumer trust.
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             THE SPEED READ
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “Siemens Energy Says
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Gamesa Takeover
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               to Speed Problem-Solving” (Bloomberg)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The U.K. fashion chain Ted Baker
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                chooses a preferred bidder
               </a>
               . (Reuters)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund buys a
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                $1.5 billion stake
               </a>
               in Alwaleed’s firm. (Bloomberg)
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              Russia-Ukraine war
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               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                Addressing Davos
               </a>
               , President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine urges global business elites to further punish Russia. (NYT)
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                damaged hundreds of cultural sites
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               . (NYT)
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                Terrorized Bucha
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               ” (NYT)
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               The Russian-appointed head of an occupied Ukrainian town was
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                injured in an explosion
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               . (Reuters)
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                DIY baby formula recipes
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               are spreading. (Bloomberg)
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                are hiding evidence
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                unify capital markets in Europe
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               by establishing live databases. (FT)
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               Amid all the Elon Musk stuff, this slipped through the cracks last week: His mother, Maye Musk, 74,
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                made history
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               as the oldest Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue cover model. (NY Post)
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                NYC subway shooting
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               had spent 24 years on Wall Street, most recently as a research assistant at Goldman Sachs. (NYT)
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               “
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                Lara Logan
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               , Once a Star at CBS News, Is Now One for the Far Right” (NYT)
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               Flush with cash, Big Tech is positioned to emerge from a downturn
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                stronger and more powerful
               </a>
               . (NYT)
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                tweets about the stock market slump
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               . (Insider)
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