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   Your Monday Briefing: Rethinking the global economy
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             June 19, 2023
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             By
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              Natasha Frost
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             Writer, Briefings
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             Good morning. We’re covering shifts in global economic policy and evidence about the Kakhovka dam collapse.
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                  Factory workers at a Chinese company in Mexico.
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                  Luis Antonio Rojas for The New York Times
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             New lessons about the global economy
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             After five years of major disruptions — a pandemic, war in Europe, tensions between the U.S. and China, inflation — the
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              global economic outlook has dimmed
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             . And, as the dust settles, many long-held assumptions about the world economy are now being questioned.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The economic conventions favored by policymakers for three decades, including the unfailing superiority of open markets, liberalized trade and maximum efficiency, did not ensure that health care workers had the equipment they needed during the Covid-19 pandemic. Nor could they prevent military conflict in Ukraine, nor extreme weather events around the world.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Policymakers are now looking to secure supply chains and prioritize trusted partners for trade relationships, even when it is somewhat less efficient. But what comes next, as elements of the previous economic orthodoxy are abandoned, is unclear.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Analysis:
             </span>
             “Nearly all the economic forces that powered progress and prosperity over the last three decades are fading,” the World Bank recently warned. “The result could be a lost decade in the making — not just for some countries or regions as has occurred in the past — but for the whole world.”
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                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2023%252F06%252F19%252Fmultimedia%252F19ambriefing-europe-nl-dam-wmhz%252F19ambriefing-europe-nl-dam-wmhz-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1qB71Z:MLkJhUuGELFq7LC2KQGZabxDH6U9DdTnY7pvh50xwsY" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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                  The Kakhovka dam in Ukraine, a day after it collapsed.
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                  Satellite image 2023 Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Who blew up the Kakhovka dam?
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             On June 6, a
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              major dam in a Ukrainian war zone gave way
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             , flooding the region, displacing thousands of people and causing chaos. Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for the collapse, but the evidence suggests the dam was crippled by an explosion set off by the side that controls it: Russia.
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             The Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine was visibly scarred by fighting in the months before the breach, suggesting that it had fallen victim to the accumulated damage. Russia has seized on that hypothesis to deny responsibility.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             But experts said that, given the satellite and seismic detections of explosions in the area, the most likely cause of the collapse was an explosive charge placed in the maintenance passageway that runs through the concrete heart of the structure. Because the dam was built during Soviet times, Moscow had every page of the engineering drawings and knew where that was.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Caveats:
             </span>
             Engineers cautioned that a full examination of the dam after the water drains from the reservoir would be required to determine the precise sequence of events leading to the destruction. Erosion from water cascading through the gates could have led to a failure, but engineers called that unlikely.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Risks:
             </span>
             The dam’s destruction endangered the main source of water for cooling the nearby Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. A top U.N. official said that the plant had only
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a “few months” of water left
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             , and that the authorities there had started to take steps to replenish the supply.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              In other news:
             </span>
             Ukraine made its
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              first territorial gain in the southern Zaporizhzhia region
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             since its counteroffensive started, a local Russian official and military bloggers said yesterday.
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                  Inside a dormitory that was attacked on Friday.
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                  Luke Dray/EPA, via Shutterstock
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             Uganda reels from a terrorist attack
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             A
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Friday night attack in a private boarding school
             </a>
             compound near Uganda’s border with the Democratic Republic of Congo left 37 of the school’s 63 students dead, raising fears of resurgent militant activity in a historically restive region. It was the deadliest terrorist act in Uganda in years.
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             The assailants, members of an Islamist militant group, shot the school’s guard before entering the dormitories, attacking students and hurling firebombs inside. As the militants fled the town into the dense forests of Congo, they killed three other people, including a woman in her 60s — bringing the death total to 41.
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             The brutal attack made clear the reach and continued strength of the Allied Democratic Forces, an insurgent group that has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Analysis:
             </span>
             “Attacking a school is likely part of a desire to recruit,” said Richard Moncrieff, the project director for the region at the International Crisis Group, “but also has a shock value, which appeals to the group’s wider jihadist audience.”
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                  Laetitia Vancon for The New York Times
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               Israel eased the process for approving more
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                construction of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank
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               , which are widely considered to be in violation of international law.
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               Antony Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, met with
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                top officials in Beijing
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               today and yesterday.
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               Officials in India are investigating whether there is a link between an
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                unusually intense heat wave
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               and a higher-than-usual number of deaths in hospitals in Uttar Pradesh.
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               A new $2 billion coal-burning power plant in Bangladesh has sat idle for weeks at a time, with
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                no coal to burn
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               .
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               Pope Francis
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                prayed with thousands in St. Peter’s Square
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               and gave thanks for the “closeness” he had felt during his hospitalization for abdominal surgery.
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               ,
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                Suzanne Garfinkle-Crowell
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               says.
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                Maureen Dowd
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                back to the Oval Office
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               ?
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               than a one-time catastrophic event,
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                Kate Pickert
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               writes.
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                  Ulet Ifansasti for The New York Times
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             Families in Indonesia thought they were sending their sons to a rehab facility run by a powerful local official. Those who stayed there say it was
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              a brutal human slavery operation
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             .
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             Daniel Ellsberg, who leaked the government documents that came to be known as the Pentagon Papers to The Times, has
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              died at 92
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             .
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              From Liverpool to delivery driver:
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             The Athletic joined a former Liverpool goalkeeper as he made his rounds as a delivery driver —
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a job fueling his passion
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             to get back in the game.
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             The former Leeds United and Scotland striker
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              Ross McCormack
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             opens up on an eventful career.
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              Jim Ratcliffe’s ownership of O.G.C. Nice:
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             Ratcliffe, who has made a bid for Manchester United, saw
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              the French soccer club struggle
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             while he was in charge.
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             A contract between
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Lionel Messi and Saudi Arabia’s tourism authority
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             offers a glimpse at the details of their multimillion-dollar relationship.
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             Egypt spars with a Dutch museum
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             A new exhibition in the Netherlands explores how Black musicians like Beyoncé, Tina Turner, Nas and others have drawn inspiration and pride from the idea that ancient Egypt was an African culture. The show is framed as a useful corrective to centuries of cultural erasure of Africans.
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             But what might sound empowering in the U.S. and thought-provoking in the Netherlands is anathema to Egypt’s government and many of its people, who have flooded the museum’s Facebook and Google pages with complaints — occasionally racist ones —
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             Sprinkle
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             feta
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              on top of this shakshuka
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             .
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             “Elemental,” the
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              latest Disney/Pixar movie
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             , is high-concept, smoldering and splashy.
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             How to
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              soothe a bad sunburn
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             .
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            Now Time to Play
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             Here’s
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              today’s Mini Crossword
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             , and a clue: Walk slowly and heavily (four letters).
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             And here are
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              today’s Wordle
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              the Spelling Bee
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              That’s it for today’s briefing. Thanks for joining me. — Natasha
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