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   Your Thursday Briefing
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   The future of the war in Ukraine.
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             May 12, 2022
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             By
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              Natasha Frost
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             Writer, Briefings
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             Good morning. We’re covering forecasts for the war in Ukraine and the killing of a Palestinian American journalist.
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                  Waiting for humanitarian aid supplies in the city of Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine, on Wednesday.
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                  Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Could the war’s economic toll strain Western unity?
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             As the war in Ukraine settles into a prolonged conflict that may last years, it is testing the resolve of Western countries, with European and American officials questioning whether the rising economic toll will erode their solidarity over time.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Follow the latest updates from the war.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             What fissures have so far presented themselves are mostly superficial, including restiveness in Paris with the Biden administration’s military ambitions. And yet there are signs of solidarity: Finland and Sweden edged closer to joining NATO on Wednesday, with Britain offering security assurances to gird against the Russian threat.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Yet 76 days into the fighting, the cascading effect on supply chains and energy pipelines will only be felt more acutely at gas pumps and on supermarket shelves. Some analysts believe Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is calculating that the West will be first to tire of a long struggle for Ukraine’s contested Donbas region.
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              Warnings:
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             The Biden administration’s director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, said yesterday that Putin was digging in for a long siege and “probably counting on U.S. and E.U. resolve to weaken as food shortages, inflation and energy shortages get worse.”
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              Embargo:
             </span>
             E.U. talks over a proposed ban on Russian oil have broken off because of Hungary’s opposition. Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, argued that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a ban on Russian oil would be the equivalent of an “atomic bomb”
             </a>
             for the Hungarian economy.
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              From the trenches:
             </span>
             Vicious close-range battles
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              are playing out in eastern Ukraine
             </a>
             . Times journalists report from the frontline.
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                  Pro-Ukrainian demonstrators at the monument to the Soviet Army in Sofia, Bulgaria.
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                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Nanna Heitmann for The New York Times
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Bulgaria takes a stand against a former friend
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Moscow long counted Bulgaria as its most ardent and reliable friend in Europe. But in recent weeks, the country has joined fellow members of the E.U. in imposing ever tougher economic sanctions on its former ally; offered to repair broken military helicopters and tanks for Ukraine; and expelled yet more Russian diplomats.
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             The rapid souring of relations with Bulgaria, a poor but symbolically important country because of its historically close ties to Russia, underscores how far off-script the invasion ordered by Putin has traveled. In response, Russia halted supplies of natural gas to Bulgaria by Gazprom last month.
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             Moscow has also launched cyberattacks, assaulting the server of Bulgaria’s state energy company and crippling pension payments by its Postal Service. “We are under severe attack at the moment,” said Kiril Petkov, the Bulgarian prime minister, describing this as a clear “attempt to derail our government” by stoking domestic unrest.
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              Quotable:
             </span>
             “Traditionally, Russia has always had a big influence here, but we have been a big surprise to them,” Petkov said. “They don’t understand what happened.”
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg e1aggfhi3" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  The Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh, who the network said was killed by Israeli army gunfire during a raid in the West Bank.
                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Imad Creidi/Reuters
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Journalist killed in the West Bank
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Shireen Abu Akleh, a Palestinian American journalist for Al Jazeera, was
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              fatally shot while reporting
             </a>
             in the West Bank city of Jenin early yesterday. The news network, citing the Palestinian Health Ministry, said she had been shot in the head by Israeli forces during a raid. A second journalist was hospitalized after being shot in the back, the ministry said.
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             A veteran journalist, Abu Akleh was a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              household name across the Middle East
             </a>
             . At the time of her death, she was wearing a protective vest that identified her as a member of the media. Another journalist present, Shatha Hanaysha, said she believed that she and other journalists had been targeted. Israeli forces, she said, “did not stop firing even after she collapsed.”
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             In an evening briefing, Israel’s minister of defense, Benny Gantz, said it was unclear what had happened. “It can be Palestinians who shot her,” he said. “Tragically, it may be on our side. We are investigating it.”
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              Quotable:
             </span>
             “Al Jazeera holds the Israeli government and the occupation forces responsible for the killing of Shireen,” the news network said in a statement. “It also calls on the international community to condemn and hold the Israeli occupation forces accountable.”
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Journalists at risk:
             </span>
             At least 27 media workers have been killed while working or for reasons relating to their journalistic activities since Jan. 1, including seven in Ukraine and eight in Mexico, according to the nonprofit Reporters Without Borders.
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             ARTS AND IDEAS
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Eurovision 2022, by the numbers
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The Eurovision Song Contest is the world’s largest live music event. It is also almost certainly the kitschiest. This year’s competition takes place this week in Turin, Italy, where nations are going head-to-head for the (non-monetary) glory of a win, as well as a trophy shaped like a 1950s microphone. Here’s what you need to know.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              66:
             </span>
             Years since the contest started in 1956. (It was initially a friendly competition between public service television broadcasters.)
            </p>
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       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              40:
             </span>
             Countries participating in this year’s contest. In an unusually political move, the organizers have barred Russia from competing “in light of the unprecedented crisis in Ukraine.”
            </p>
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         </tbody>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              1974:
             </span>
             Year in which Abba won the competition, with the song
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              “Waterloo.”
             </a>
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              183 million:
             </span>
             Total viewers of last year’s contest.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              Three:
             </span>
             Maximum length in minutes for each song, according to the contest’s rules.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              33,938:
             </span>
             Population of the smallest country competing — San Marino, a landlocked enclave within Italy.
            </p>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              380:
             </span>
             Points awarded to Italy’s winning contestant,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the rock band Maneskin
             </a>
             , last year.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              2016:
             </span>
             The last time Ukraine won, with the song
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              “1944” by Jamala
             </a>
             . The country, represented by the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              rap and folk band Kalush Orchestra
             </a>
             , is this year’s favorite to win.
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             PLAY, WATCH, EAT
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            What to Cook
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg e1aggfhi3" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:0;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Craig Lee for The New York Times
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             There’s nothing fancy or complicated about
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              this fettuccine Alfredo
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             , but it is delicious and deeply satisfying.
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            What to Watch
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Set in the Indian state of Bilhar, “The Village House” is
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a decades-spanning portrait of the director’s family
             </a>
             , drawn from childhood memories.
            </p>
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            What to Read
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             “The Netanyahus,” by Joshua Cohen, is “the best and most relevant novel I’ve read in what feels like forever,” our reviewer writes. It won
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              this year’s Pulitzer for fiction
             </a>
             .
            </p>
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            Now Time to Play
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             Here’s
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              today’s Mini Crossword
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             , and a clue: Sticky parts of geckos (four letters).
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             And here’s
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              today’s Wordle
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             and
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              the Spelling Bee
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             .
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              You can find all our puzzles here
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              That’s it for today’s briefing. Thanks for joining me. — Natasha
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             P.S. Marc Lacey, an incoming managing editor,
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             The latest episode of “
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              The Daily
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