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May 18, 2023
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Natasha Frost
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Writer, Briefings
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Good morning. We’re covering Ukrainian advances near Bakhmut and rising global temperatures.
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Among the risks from rising temperatures are intensified droughts and wildfires.
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Lorena Sopena/Reuters
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Heat likely to break records in the next five years
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Temperatures are likely to
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
soar to record highs over the next five years
</a>
, driven by human-caused warming and the El Niño climate pattern, World Meteorological Organization forecasters said. There is also a two-thirds chance that one of the next five years could be 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, hotter than the 19th-century average, the organization reported.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
There is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed the temperature records set in 2016, the forecasters said, while the average from 2023 to ’27 will almost certainly be the warmest for a five-year period ever recorded. Even small temperature increases can exacerbate the dangers from heat waves, wildfires, drought and other calamities.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
El Niño conditions can cause further turmoil by shifting global precipitation patterns. The meteorological organization said it expected increased summer rainfall over the next five years in places like Northern Europe and the Sahel in sub-Saharan Africa and reduced rainfall in the Amazon and parts of Australia.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
Context:
</span>
One particularly warm year does not mean that the world will have officially breached the aspirational goal in the Paris climate agreement of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. When scientists talk about that temperature goal, they generally mean a longer-term average over years or even decades.
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Climate news:
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<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Wildfires are
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striking the heart of Canadian oil and gas country
</a>
, forcing companies to curb production.
</span>
</li>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Formula 1 canceled this weekend’s Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix after heavy rain and deadly flooding in northern Italy made it
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unsafe to proceed with the race
</a>
.
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</li>
</ul>
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</tbody>
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<img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2023%252F05%252F17%252Fmultimedia%252F18ambriefing-europe-ukraine%252F17ukraine-bakhmut-01-tfcz-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1pzVm0:VDcKmYVCP-dG0Pj-vnvJ1QtAPG6RoFua2BXx4c6Afus" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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<span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
The 28th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army in a BMP armored vehicle during an operation to fire on a Russian target in the direction of Bakhmut, in eastern Ukraine, in May.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Tyler Hicks/The New York Times
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<h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
Ukraine’s gains near Bakhmut
</h2>
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
In a matter of days, Ukrainian forces have
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
taken back territory north and south
</a>
of the ruined city of Bakhmut that the Russians needed many weeks to capture. Though Moscow’s troops still hold most of Bakhmut itself, for the first time in months Ukrainian soldiers are on the offensive, and momentum appears to have shifted their way — at least for now.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Continued Ukrainian advances would put the Russians inside Bakhmut at risk of being surrounded and trapped and would demonstrate that the deep, fortified lines that the Russians have built across Ukraine can be breached. Success around Bakhmut would also provide a major morale boost for Ukraine and a serious blow to Russia.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
The gains come as Ukraine is preparing to mount a broader counteroffensive, aiming for a dramatic breakthrough in a grueling war where much blood has been spilled but little ground gained. While the dynamics around Bakhmut are somewhat specific to that battle, Ukrainian commanders say they hope to build on the lessons learned there when they try to attack elsewhere on the front line.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
Inside the city:
</span>
Once a city of about 70,000 people in the Donetsk region, known for its sparkling wine and salt mines, Bakhmut has become emblematic of the savagery of this war. The situation has grown so dire that Ukrainian commanders are sending in only volunteers. “If you enter Bakhmut, you must know you might not make it out,” one soldier said.
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
In other news from the war:
</span>
</p>
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<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
European countries are pressuring Washington to
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
provide Ukraine with U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets
</a>
.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Ukraine and Russia have
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
agreed to extend an agreement
</a>
that allows Ukraine to ship grain across the Black Sea.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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Excavations at the Jebel Irhoud archaeological site in Morocco, where 300,000-year-old fossils that may be the oldest evidence of Homo sapiens were found in 2017.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Shannon McPherron/UPI, via Alamy
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<h2 style="color:#000;font:700 24px/31px nyt-cheltenham,georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
How the first humans evolved
</h2>
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</tbody>
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A new study published this week rejects the long-held argument that
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
modern humans arose from one place
</a>
in Africa during one period in time.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Instead, researchers concluded that modern humans descended from at least two populations — referred to as Stem1 and Stem2 — that coexisted in Africa for a million years before merging in several independent events across the continent.
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
If Stem1 and Stem2 had been entirely separate from each other, they would have accumulated a large number of distinct mutations in their DNA. Instead, by analyzing the genomes of 290 living people, the scientists found that the two populations had remained only moderately different — about as distinct as living Europeans and West Africans are today. The scientists concluded that people had moved between Stem1 and Stem2, pairing off to have children and mixing their DNA.
</p>
</td>
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</tbody>
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<p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
Unknowns:
</span>
The model does not reveal where the Stem1 and Stem2 people lived in Africa. And it’s possible that bands of these two groups moved around a lot over the vast stretches of time during which they existed on the continent.
</p>
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Ecuador’s president, who used a constitutional measure that will allow him to rule by decree,
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disbanded the opposition-led congress
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.
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The South African city of Johannesburg — where residents face electricity and water shortages, avoid potholes and fret about dilapidated buildings — is now on
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its sixth mayor
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in 22 months.
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A French resistance fighter has for the first time spoken publicly about the
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secret executions
</a>
of 47 captured German soldiers in 1944.
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</li>
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Traditional Conservative voters are
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deserting the party
</a>
in key English heartlands, contributing to the loss of more than 1,000 municipality seats in voting this month.
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Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan, said they were
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
chased by paparazzi
</a>
in New York. “There were no reported collisions, summonses, injuries or arrests,” a police spokesman said.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
President Biden lands in Hiroshima, Japan, today ahead of the annual G7 summit meeting. He will
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
skip planned visits to Papua New Guinea and Australia
</a>
, potentially reviving fears in that region of an unreliable and dysfunctional America.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Texas
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banned hormone and puberty-blocking treatments
</a>
, as well as surgeries for transgender children.
</span>
</li>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
A lawyer
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representing Donald Trump
</a>
in the federal investigations into classified documents and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election has resigned.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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</tr>
</tbody>
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What Else Is Happening
</td>
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An ambitious digital imaging project has produced
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a “digital twin” of the R.M.S. Titanic
</a>
, showing the wreckage of the doomed ocean liner in breathtaking detail.
</span>
</li>
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The governor of Montana signed a bill to
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ban TikTok
</a>
from operating inside the state.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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A Morning Read
</td>
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Illustration by Liana Finck
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What doesn’t your therapist tell you?
</a>
That they don’t love your “therapyspeak” or are desperately needing a bathroom break? That yes, you should break up with him, or no, they aren’t on board with your emotional-support hedgehog?
</p>
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“Therapy itself, it’s a bit of a dance — you want to see what the other person is bringing, and you dance with them,” Peter Chan, a psychologist, said. “If they’re doing a waltz, you can’t break out hip-hop, and there are times when people just don’t want to dance.”
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SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC
</h3>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
The race to buy the world’s biggest soccer club:
</span>
We have spoken to sources connected to both bidding parties to try to ascertain where we are in
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
the race to buy Manchester United.
</a>
</p>
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</tbody>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
Arsenal’s rising star striker chooses U.S. over England:
</span>
Folarin Balogun is set to represent the United States after his switch of allegiance from England was approved by FIFA.
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Where would he fit?
</a>
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
Canceling the Imola GP was the only choice for F1:
</span>
Running a grand prix amid a natural disaster simply isn’t viable — and F1 has learned the value of
<a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
making an early call.
</a>
</p>
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ARTS AND IDEAS
</h3>
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Ulet Ifansasti for The New York Times
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Moving a sinking city
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Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, is sinking in some places by up to a foot a year. Desperate for access to clean water, people have dug thousands of illegal wells that effectively deflate the marshes underneath the city. Today, 40 percent of the city lies below sea level, and flooding is increasingly common.
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The encroaching sea presents a threat to one of the world’s most densely packed cities, where 10 million people live in an area about half the size of New York City. To deal with that threat, Joko Widodo, the popular president, is moving the capital to a new location about 800 miles away and renaming it Nusantara.
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“People want Nusantara to succeed because it means that the developing world — despite all the problems that were placed in its path by the legacy of imperialism, by the legacy of colonialism — that a country can succeed on its own terms and can be a successful democracy and can create its own vision for itself,” said Hannah Beech, The Times’s senior correspondent for Asia. “But it’s a very, very challenging thing to do.”
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Kelly Marshall for The New York Times. Food Stylist; Barrett Washburne.
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Serve your
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sheet-pan roast chicken with tangy greens
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1 year, 6 months ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
Your Thursday Briefing: Warnings of a hotter world
Plus, a sinking capital city.View in browser|nytimes.comContinue reading the main storyMay 18, 20...