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What to expect from US reciprocal tariffs |
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👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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🔍 The focus this week: The US wants everything Even Stevens
</p>
<p data-block-key="5qt6r" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
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<b>
⏰ The countdown is on for the US "reciprocal tariffs” policy.
</b>
Slated to set in on April 2nd, these tariffs aim to reduce trade discrepancies between the US and its trading partners. The exact details haven’t been worked out yet, not least because the president also wants levies to reflect “non-tariff barriers” – like difficulties in accessing markets or restrictions on certain imports. But broadly, the US will shoot to even out trade deficits, plus a fee matching the trading partner’s Value Added Tax (VAT).
</p>
<p data-block-key="d7r5t" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
🗣
<b>
The US has said it’s open to negotiation.
</b>
Some trading partners, like India, have already suggested that they’ll strike an agreement with the States to avoid higher rates, and more will likely follow.
</p>
<p data-block-key="30ekv" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
❓ The effect on trade and, in turn, the US economy and global stock markets is unclear.
</b>
That will depend on how broad these reciprocal tariffs are – namely, the number of countries and products impacted. But remember, uncertainty can be worse than knowing: investors want predictable earnings and cash flows in order to value stocks accurately – so until they have those figures, share prices will probably err on the erratic side.
</p>
<p data-block-key="2omih" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
📉 The Federal Reserve said last week that tariffs’ impact on inflation
</b>
<b>
<i>
may
</i>
</b>
<b>
only be transitory, lasting for just one year and leveling out afterward.
</b>
But central banks aren’t psychics. Many said the inflation that spawned from the pandemic would be transitory – then they were forced to raise interest rates from 0% to between 5.25% and 5.50%, the biggest rise in 40 years. As we know, those rates still haven’t concretely tamed runaway prices.
</p>
<p data-block-key="damst" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
<b>
💸 You might want to brace yourself.
</b>
The president has hinted that tariffs could increase over time. The outlook for US stocks was already in doubt, so if you think this news will only cloud it further, you may want to consider diversifying your portfolio across sectors, geographies, and assets to reduce the impact of any fallout.
</p>
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*
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Rome wasn’t built in a day
</h4>
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More importantly for you as an investor, the world’s biggest and most innovative companies weren’t, either.
<br/>
<br/>
So if you want exceptional results, you need to both find the right companies and give them plenty of time. That’s a hard ask – but
<a style="color: #204CE9; font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
Baillie Gifford’s flagship investment trust
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, Scottish Mortgage, can help.
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The Scottish Mortgage managers scour the world for firms with long-term transformational potential. They hold them all – both public and private –
<a style="color: #204CE9; font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
in one portfolio
</a>
.
<br/>
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Then, they invest with a time horizon of at least five years to reduce the impact of volatility and give the firms time to grow. We’re talking about the
<a style="color: #204CE9; font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
SpaceXs, the NVIDIAs, the Amazons
</a>
, all in a single, actively managed portfolio, with shareholders reaping the rewards of any returns generated.
<br/>
<br/>
Of course, growth-orientated investing will inevitably bring ups and downs for investors – but in the experience of Scottish Mortgage,
<a style="color: #204CE9; font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
the long-term rewards can be well worth the wait
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.
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Your capital is at risk. The Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust is managed by Baillie Gifford & Co Limited. Baillie Gifford & Co and Baillie Gifford & Co Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). The investment trusts managed by Baillie Gifford & Co Limited are listed on the London Stock Exchange and are not authorised or regulated by the FCA. A Key Information Document is available by visiting
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📅 On the calendar
</p>
<ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
<li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Monday:
</b>
Europe purchasing manufacturing index (April), UK purchasing manufacturing index (March), US purchasing manufacturing index (March).
</li>
<li data-block-key="amn6s" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Tuesday:
</b>
US consumer confidence (March), US new home sales (February), US manufacturing index (March).
</li>
<li data-block-key="ecjbg" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Wednesday:
</b>
UK inflation (February), UK producer price index (February), US durable goods orders (February), China industrial profit (February).
</li>
<li data-block-key="gg5a" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Thursday:
</b>
US corporate profit (quarter four), Japan: Tokyo consumer price index (March).
<b>
Earnings:
</b>
Lululemon.
</li>
<li data-block-key="gp5i" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
<b>
Friday:
</b>
UK retail sales (February), Europe economic sentiment (March).
</li>
</ul>
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👀 What you might’ve missed last week
</p>
<p data-block-key="acv65" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
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🇺🇸 US
</b>
</p>
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The Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with most central bankers sticking to their previous forecasts of two rate trims this year. Mind you, the Fed did worsen predictions for the US economy, inflation,
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and
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unemployment numbers compared to December’s expectations.
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Nvidia has pledged to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to make chips and other electronics in the US over the next four years. Not only does this decision demonstrate the impact of the US president’s “America First“ trade policies, but it also reassures investors that there’s still plenty of money in the AI infrastructure sector. Remember, DeepSeek’s efficiency sparked concern that spending would slow down, but Nvidia maintains that clients are spending more on chips instead.
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Investors reportedly valued X at $44 billion in a secondary market deal, bringing the social media platform back to Elon Musk’s takeover price for the first time.
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🇪🇺 Europe
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The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 4.5% but hinted that a cut could come as soon as May. The UK’s central bank needs to tread carefully, after all, weighing up the prospect of an inflation reboot against the economy and job market’s cries for support.
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Germany approved a $1 trillion fiscal package focused on defense and infrastructure.
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🌏 Asia
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BYD’s new “super e-platform” can deliver 1,000 kilowatts of digital fuel in five minutes – enough to power a 249-mile joyride. The Chinese carmaker’s system is nearly four times faster than Tesla’s current iteration, making it the fastest charging setup on the planet. BYD will start by rolling out 4,000 systems across China – but by addressing a common complaint of charging times, the firm should be able to keep nabbing market share from global rivals.
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The Bank of Japan didn’t touch interest rates, but economists think they’ll likely be hiked later this year.
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