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<span>
<span class="css-atnqj9 esd8w5v2" style="margin:0;font:normal 14px georgia,serif;color:#666">
Not so fast.
</span>
<span class="css-hpkdsj esd8w5v3" style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
The jobs market cools
</h2>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
This morning, the Labor Department will report the number of jobs that employers added to
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
their payrolls in June
</a>
. Economists are forecasting that hiring slowed last month, to nearly 270,000 jobs. This comes as fewer workers are available or willing to take open jobs, and while consumer spending is slowing as higher interest rates, imposed by the Fed to combat inflation, take their toll.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
It was most likely the slowest month of hiring since President Biden took office.
</span>
But the numbers would also still indicate fairly strong job growth, compared with typical months under Donald Trump and Barack Obama. That creates a quandary for the Federal Reserve, which seems resolved to continue raising interest rates in a bid to cool the economy and stem inflation.
</p>
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<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
There are
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
a growing number of signs
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
that the economy is slowing down.
</span>
</p>
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<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Demand for
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
residential real estate
</span>
has decreased, and construction of new homes is slowing. Real estate companies, including Compass and Redfin and Zillow, as well as mortgage lenders, like Wells Fargo, have laid off employees in anticipation of
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
a housing downturn
</a>
.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Key commodities are dropping, signaling a slowdown in global demand. The price of Brent crude, the global
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
oil
</span>
benchmark, dipped below
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
$100 a barrel Wednesday for the first time since late April
</a>
.
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Copper
</span>
, which is nicknamed “Dr. Copper” for its reputed ability to diagnose global economic trends, is down more than 20 percent this year, and last week it hit a 17-month low.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Stocks
</span>
are down, with the U.S. market suffering
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
the worst first half in more than 50 years
</a>
.
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Bonds, too,
</span>
are flashing warning signals: The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below the 2-year yield, resulting in a so-called inverted yield curve that is often associated with a recession.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Nonetheless, the job market, while slowing, continues to suggest that the economy is pretty healthy.
</span>
The unemployment rate — 3.6 percent — is one of the lowest in decades. (Anything under 5 percent is considered good.) And consumer spending remains strong.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
The Fed is trying to slow the economy to lower inflation, but it would like to avoid a recession.
</span>
Any indication of unusual growth, especially from one as core to the economy as jobs, may prompt the Fed to continue to raise interest rates, and make a recession more likely.
</p>
</td>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
“We are probably around peak inflation now,” Vincent Reinhart, a former top Fed economists, who is now a strategist at Dreyfus and Mellon told DealBook. “If your goal is to slow the economy by a good bit, you are not going to stop until you have every measure of the economy flashing recession. Only then will it be mission accomplished for the Fed.”
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<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
For full coverage of today’s jobs report, see The Times’s
</span>
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<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
special briefing
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<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
, which will be updated throughout the day.
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A MESSAGE FROM
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2022 Mid-Year Outlook
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Rolling With Change
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While change is life’s constant, its pace and magnitude clearly are not — at times it can bring aggressive recalibration of capital market assumptions in very short order. The events of the first half of 2022 have encouraged investors to seek fresh perspectives and have challenged long-held beliefs about investment risks. Through these moments, new opportunities can usher in for those who strive to learn quickly.
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Learn More
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Tell us about your experience with this newsletter
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HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Match Group suspends some political donations after an abortion ruling.
</span>
The operator of Tinder, Hinge and other dating sites said it would
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
no longer give money
</a>
to groups representing Republican and Democratic attorneys general. It has been among the most vocal companies in responding to a Supreme Court ruling that ended nearly 50 years of federal abortion rights, but it had come under criticism for its previous support of the
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Republican Attorneys General Association
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.
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The F.D.I.C. is reportedly investigating whether marketing by the crypto broker Voyager was misleading.
</span>
The banking regulator is looking into claims by Voyager that implied that clients’ funds were completely protected by the nation’s banking insurance system, which they were not,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The Wall Street Journal reported
</a>
. When Voyager filed for bankruptcy this week, it froze customers withdrawals, leaving the status of those accounts in limbo.
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Theranos’s No. 2 is found guilty of 12 counts of fraud.
</span>
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The verdict for Ramesh Balwani
</a>
, who helped lead the failed blood testing start-up, was more severe than the one for his ex-girlfriend Elizabeth Holmes, who led the company. Balwani and Holmes, who together pushed Theranos to soaring heights with a promise to revolutionize health care, are the most prominent tech executives to be charged with and convicted of fraud in a generation.
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Mortgage rates record their largest decline since 2008.
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The falling rates, which were down for a second-straight week,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
added to fears of a recession
</a>
. According to data from Freddie Mac released yesterday, the 30-year fixed rate fell to 5.30 percent, from 5.70 percent last week.
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A “perilous” time for a Twitter deal?
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Fresh off the news of Elon Musk’s
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
ninth (known) child
</a>
, The Washington Post
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
dropped an article
</a>
that suggested that the deal was in jeopardy. The article’s claims, which could not be confirmed by The New York Times, took Twitter and its advisers by surprise, because they did not consider the deal to be in any further peril than at any other point in recent months,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
writes DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch
</a>
.
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Musk did not respond to a request for a comment. Twitter reiterated that it intends “to close the transaction and enforce the merger agreement at the agreed price and terms.”
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
What we know.
</span>
A $44 billion deal was
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
reached in April
</a>
between Musk and Twitter, and the two sides have since been working to close the deal. Musk requested information on how many Twitter accounts are bots, and Twitter has provided Musk access to its “
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
firehose
</a>
,” or stream of tweets.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
What The Washington Post wrote:
</span>
That “Musk’s team has concluded Twitter’s figures on spam accounts are not verifiable,” citing an anonymous person familiar with the matter, and that he “is expected to take potentially drastic action.” The Post added that a “change in direction from Musk’s team” would likely come soon — though its source “did not say exactly what they thought that change would be.”
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
What it
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
could
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
mean
</span>
. There are many “drastic” actions Musk could take, but as it pertains to the deal, there are two clear possibilities: He could deliver a letter to Twitter saying he is terminating the deal, and he could sue Twitter. There are no clear grounds for Musk to try to break the deal, because Twitter has publicly disclosed that roughly 5 percent of its users are bots since it went public. But he may try to claim that this disclosure is intentionally misleading, a very high bar to meet legally.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
What Twitter could do next.
</span>
Counter sue. It would be an uphill battle for Musk. The deal has a “
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
specific performance clause
</a>
,” which gives the company the right to sue him and force him to complete the deal so long as the debt financing he has corralled remains intact. And even if that 5 percent estimate is off, Twitter warns in its regulatory filings that the number is an estimate and that it “could be higher than we have currently estimated.” The bar for using that as grounds to get out of a deal is high.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
What are the stakes?
</span>
The most valuable part of Twitter right now is its acquisition agreement with Musk. Its shares are down about 24 percent since April, and trade well below the price agreed with Musk. Twitter is seeing pressure on its advertising business, has frozen hiring and is
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
laying off some staff members
</a>
. To accept less than the price it originally negotiated with Musk could expose Twitter to shareholder lawsuits.
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
“Until 1995, the U.S. was the world’s leader in terms of female labor force participation. Now, this host of countries that we used to think were backward in terms of gender norms have exceeded the U.S.”
</h2>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
— Claudia Goldin, an economist at Harvard, on how
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
a lack of options for child and elder care, is
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
prompting many women
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
to forgo jobs altogether.
</span>
</p>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
Is climate change making states uninsurable?
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Extreme weather is changing the calculus of insurance coverage across the United States, as
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
wildfires
</a>
and floods leave
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
property owners scrambling
</a>
in California, Florida and Louisiana. But insurers are mostly overseen by the states, so there is no big-picture perspective on how climate risks are manifesting nationally. The U.S. Treasury is embarking on that statistical analysis for the first time.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
“There are growing indications of insurance market stress in areas of the country vulnerable to climate change impacts,” a Treasury spokeswoman told DealBook. But to develop a national understanding, officials need “consistent, comparable data at a granular level,” she said. And they are not quite sure how to get that yet.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Federal officials are asking state regulators for help.
</span>
In a recent email to local officials from the Federal Insurance Office, shared with DealBook by a source familiar with the effort, the Treasury’s insurance arm asked states what data they had on homeowner
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
coverage, liabilities and losses
</a>
by ZIP code over the past five years. For now, the insurance arm said it was “assessing how to timely gather relevant, reliable data.” But depending on responses, which are expected next week, it may have to turn to companies next.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Risk experts are keenly aware of rising climate costs.
</span>
The number of natural disasters causing $1 billion or more in damages has grown steadily for more than 15 years, notes
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
a new report
</a>
from the consultancy Deloitte. It surveyed 27 state regulators, more than half of whom expect climate risks for insurers to continue climbing. “With losses mounting, insurers can no longer avoid or postpone addressing the impact of changing climate,” the report states, adding that regulators must ensure that companies are predicting and managing that exposure. The Center for American Progress, a think tank, recently called on regulators to
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
identify and mitigate
</a>
insurance industry climate risks, saying “the full severity and scope of the problem is difficult to determine” partly because of insufficient data.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Still, climate action just got more fraught
</span>
. Last week’s
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Supreme Court decision
</a>
limiting the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to regulate carbon emissions was celebrated by many conservative lawmakers, but “growing risk from climate is already stressing insurers,” said Carolyn Kousky, the executive director of the Wharton Risk Center. “Now would be the time for insurance companies to be more vocal and create political pressure to act.”
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<h3 class="css-132hdgt e8bxl341" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
THE SPEED READ
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Deals
</span>
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
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<table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Tom Ford
</a>
, a luxury fashion brand, is exploring a sale. (Bloomberg)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
The investment firm
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
General Atlantic
</a>
is reportedly working on a plan to go public. (Bloomberg)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Spirit Airlines again puts off a vote
</a>
on Frontier’s offer as it mulls JetBlue’s.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
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</tbody>
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Policy
</span>
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
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<ul class="css-27qc8p e1darl2c0" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Biden
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
will sign an executive order
</a>
on abortion access. (NYT)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
“With Roe Overturned,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Austin’s Loss Could Be Brooklyn’s Gain
</a>
” (NYT)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
China’s finance ministry is considering
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
a $220 billion stimulus package
</a>
. (Bloomberg)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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Best of the rest
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<tbody>
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<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
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<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Why
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
South Korea can’t quit
</a>
Internet Explorer. (NYT)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
How Big Tech
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
became hated by Republicans
</a>
. (Slate)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
There were
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unbelievable bargains on Wish
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, the troubled internet dollar store start-up, but many of them weren’t real. (NYT)
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