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   DealBook: All eyes on bank earnings
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             April 14, 2023
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              Good morning. In today’s newsletter: JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kick off the bank earnings season; the Washington Commanders are close to a $6 billion sale; and how Bernard Arnault became the world’s richest person. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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                  Bank deposits and withdrawals will be a big focus of earnings calls.
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             Can the banks bounce back?
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             JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, two of America’s biggest banks, reported
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              solid earnings and revenue
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             gains this morning, pushing their stock prices higher in premarket trading. PNC Bank, a smaller lender, also posted a big jump in profit.
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             Despite the upbeat results, which exceeded analysts’ expectations, it’s too early to say that the worst of the banking crisis is over.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Banks’ financial results are closely followed for what they say about the health of the wider economy.
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             With the U.S. potentially on the brink of recession, inflation running hot, and investors anxious for details on the damage to the sector wrought by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the coming wave of bank earnings takes on particular importance.
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             “The things that we’re nervous about are all the things that we don’t have a lot of hard data about,” Karen Dynan, a Harvard economist and former Treasury official,
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              told The Times
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             . Bank earnings could be the final puzzle piece to give clarity on where the economy is heading.
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              A big focus will be on deposits.
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             Fed data
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              shows
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             that customers pulled more than $600 billion worth of deposits from their accounts in the first quarter of this year, with most of that exodus occurring in the days after the fall of SVB last month. A big chunk of that appears to be
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              flowing into money-market funds
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             , a move that would give individuals a solid return on their deposits, but could choke off lending and investing in the wider economy.
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              It’s not just small and midsize lenders in the spotlight.
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             Wall Street analysts estimate that the big three — JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo — saw
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              a $61 billion decline
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             in deposits in the first quarter. Expect big bank chiefs to be grilled on deposit flows, and the impact of the decline of midsize lenders on their business.
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              The pressure to strengthen balance sheets could put a chill on lending.
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             That pullback, combined with higher interest rates,
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             may push companies to cut back on spending and speed up layoffs, economists fear.
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             “Bank lending is arguably the most important component of a strong economy, so insights from bank C.E.O.s are critical right now, as investors keep an eye on the trajectory of bank lending after the recent crisis of confidence in the banking sector,” David Trainer, C.E.O. of New Constructs, an investment research firm, said in a note this week.
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             At 7 a.m. Eastern, the JPMorgan Chase stock was up nearly 6 percent in pre-market trading. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, its shares had slumped into the red, along with much of the sector.
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              National Guardsman is arrested in connection with Ukraine war documents leak.
             </span>
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Jack Teixeira
             </a>
             , a 21-year-old airman, was taken into custody after the federal authorities said he had shared sensitive intelligence to an
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              online gaming chat group
             </a>
             . The leaks have involved an array of national security secrets, including U.S. surveillance linked to the war in Ukraine. He is scheduled to appear in federal court today.
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              The D.O.J. will ask the Supreme Court to block a ruling on abortion pills.
             </span>
             The decision follows last week’s ruling by a judge in Texas that
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              mifepristone should be pulled
             </a>
             from the market more than 20 years after it was approved by the F.D.A. Separately, Florida
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              banned abortions after six weeks
             </a>
             of pregnancy.
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              Boeing stock sinks on 737 Max warning.
             </span>
             The plane maker
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              warned yesterday
             </a>
             that production issues would affect its delivery of the narrow-body jets. The problem: one of Boeing’s suppliers, Spirit AeroSystems, used “non standard” fittings in assembling the fuselage. The company said that could create a compliance issue, though not necessarily a safety problem.
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              Infectious disease experts brace for the next Covid-like pandemic.
             </span>
             Superspreader viruses like Covid-19 are emerging more rapidly in an era of global travel and climate change. Airfinity, a predictive disease specialist,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              forecasts that the odds
             </a>
             of such a pandemic striking in the next decade are greater than one in four.
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             A blockbuster deal shakes up the N.F.L.
            </h2>
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             Another record is set to fall in the world of professional sports: Dan Snyder has
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              reached a deal
             </a>
             to sell the N.F.L.’s Washington Commanders to the billionaire investor Josh Harris for $6 billion.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Valuations of N.F.L. franchises are surging
             </span>
             . Last year, Rob Walton and members of the Walton and Penner families bought the Denver Broncos for $4.65 billion. Over the past decade, prices for N.F.L. franchises have increased more than fourfold.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Here’s how a Commanders deal would stack up:
            </p>
           </td>
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             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Washington Commanders (2023?): $6 billion
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Denver Broncos (2022): $4.65 billion
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Carolina Panthers (2018): $2.22 billion
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Buffalo Bills (2014): $1.4 billion
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Money is pouring into the league.
             </span>
             The N.F.L. cut
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a landmark broadcast deal
             </a>
             valued at over $100 billion in 2021, the most lucrative in U.S. professional sports. The game is also at the height of its popularity. Broadcasts continually rank as many of the most watched live T.V. programs, and advertisers are eager to buy into the action. This year’s Super Bowl saw
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a boom in ad prices
             </a>
             , with a 30-second slot priced at more than $7 million.
            </p>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             N.F.L. clubs are the “Rolls-Royce of American sports leagues,”
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              said Salvatore Galatioto
             </a>
             , whose firm advises investors on professional sports deals.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The Commanders deal still needs league approval.
             </span>
             Snyder and Harris must get agreement from 24 of the 32 team owners. That may not be so difficult: Snyder has become deeply unpopular with the Commanders fan base, and the team is under investigation by the league over possible financial improprieties and accusations that it enabled a culture of sexual harassment by team executives.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             If the sale gets the green light, Harris, the 58-year-old co-founder of the private equity giant Apollo Global, would land an ownership stake in his third professional sports team. He is also a co-owner of the N.B.A.’s Philadelphia 76ers and the N.H.L.’s New Jersey Devils.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The price record may not last long.
             </span>
             Bids for Manchester United, the English Premier League soccer club, are set to enter a third round. The club’s owners, the Glazer family, are
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              reportedly seeking a price
             </a>
             in the $7 billion range.
            </p>
           </td>
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           </td>
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           </td>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             52 percent
            </h2>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — The share of Germans opposed to ending the use of nuclear power, according to a poll by Bild, the country’s biggest daily newspaper. Europe’s largest economy is scheduled to
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               shut down its last three plants this weekend
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              , but efforts to shift from a reliance on Russian oil have raised doubts for many consumers.
             </span>
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Bernard Arnault, the quiet billionaire
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The business leaders who typically rank at the top of the world’s wealth list are known as master disrupters who helped create entirely new sectors. Think Jeff Bezos at Amazon, or Elon Musk, who co-founded PayPal before trying to make electric vehicles mainstream at Tesla.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Bernard Arnault
             </a>
             , the C.E.O. of the French luxury group LVMH, has surpassed them all by reinventing an old one, with investors cheering bumper quarterly results yesterday and pushing his net worth to $210 billion.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Arnault has turned LVMH into Europe’s most valuable public company.
             </span>
             The market capitalization of the group, whose brands include Louis Vuitton and Tiffany, has more than doubled in the last four years despite severe headwinds, to close in on the $500 billion club. That’s allowed it to surpass the oil giant Exxon Mobil and the banking behemoth JP Morgan Chase.
            </p>
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                <img class="css-ivj8p2" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2023%252F04%252F14%252Fbusiness%252F14db-lvmh%252F14db-lvmh-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1pnHw2:-mAduLlesJ9RWoZf_nHROb4R5lrvxJtpZ3TrlHoNy1o" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:30px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             LVMH’s rebound since the pandemic has been impressive. Sales fell when Chinese consumers, the world’s biggest luxury spenders, were not able to travel abroad to stock up on handbags and jewelry. And lockdowns in the country hit spending.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              It all began with Christian Dior.
             </span>
             In 1984, Arnault bought the holding group that included the storied brand. In short order, he sold off most of its underperforming labels and turned the ailing Dior into a powerhouse. He helped form LVMH three years later, and soon established his supremacy as the group’s majority shareholder, C.E.O. and chairman. His
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              business mantra
             </a>
             was summed up in an interview with The Wall Street Journal: “Luxury, for me, is how can you create desire?”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Arnault has taken a less-flashy approach than his wealthy peers.
             </span>
             The 74-year-old regularly appears alongside some of the world’s biggest celebrities at his brand’s fashion shows, but he has tried to maintain a lower profile. He has been described as shy and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              intensely private
             </a>
             , but he has a ruthless reputation for deal-making that earned him the nickname “the wolf in cashmere.”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              But there are clouds on the horizon.
             </span>
             Demand in the U.S. is slowing. Questions about
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              succession
             </a>
             loom large, with Arnault’s five children occupying senior positions at the group. And his wealth has not gone down entirely well in his native France:
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Protesters against a pension overhaul stormed the company’s headquarters
             </a>
             yesterday chanting, “There is money in the pockets of billionaires!”
            </p>
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                to sell Bonobos for $75 million
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               — $235 million less than it paid in 2017 for the men’s clothing company. (CNBC)
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                to sell a portfolio of structured bonds
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                WTA is returning to China
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               after suspending tournaments in the country two years ago over concerns about the safety of star player Peng Shuai. (NYT)
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                sovereign debt crisis
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               affecting many developing countries. (FT)
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                annual gathering of the
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               National Rifle Association today. (NYT)
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               Germany is reportedly pushing Intel
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                to spend more
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               on a $19 billion chip plant if the U.S. company wants to secure more government subsidies. (FT)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               “Billionaire Harlan Crow Bought Property From Clarence Thomas. The Justice
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                Didn’t Disclose the Deal
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               .” (ProPublica)
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               A VHS tape of “Rocky” just sold for
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                $27,500
               </a>
               , another sign of the booming business in nostalgia. (NYT)
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               “We must slow down the race to
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                God-like AI
               </a>
               ” (FT)
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              Correction: Yesterday’s DealBook referred incorrectly to Quincy Krosby of LPL Financial. Ms. Krosby is a woman, not a man.
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