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   DealBook: China, chips and trade tensions
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   Also, more companies warn on tariffs.
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             April 16, 2025
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          Good morning. The endgame of President Trump’s tariff fight may come down to what happens with his standoff with China. Beijing unveiled seemingly positive G.D.P. data today, but that doesn’t mean it — or Washington — has the upper hand in the trade war. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <img alt="Jensen Huang, the C.E.O. of Nvidia, is seen resting his elbow on a white chair, and looking down, in front of a dark, starry backdrop." class="css-3vswge" height="400" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F04%252F16%252Fmultimedia%252F16db-nvidia-qlfp%252F16db-nvidia-qlfp-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NDQ4MDE0MzAuMzYzMzI4fQ:1u50YY:s6m4H-Kq9maCSs2Uj-3TJZn4cqf73POKDCbxnS10W14" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="600"/>
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             Jensen Huang, the C.E.O. of Nvidia, finds his company being increasingly squeezed by Washington-Beijing trade tensions.
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            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Mike Kai Chen for The New York Times
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Red tape
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Down, up, and down again: U.S. futures and stocks in Asia and Europe are
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          lower this morning
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          as more companies get pulled into the crossfire of President Trump’s trade war with China.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Nvidia fell sharply in premarket trading after the chip giant issued a $5.5 billion write-down yesterday because of more restrictions on shipments to China.
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          ASML
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         <span>
          , a Dutch maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, was also down significantly on trade-war warnings.
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        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          They’re signs of fresh worries for the semiconductor industry.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Trump administration has ordered manufacturers to obtain permits to ship more of their products to China and other countries. The extra red tape will probably
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          curb Nvidia’s sales
         </a>
         <span>
          of H2O processors intended specifically for the Chinese market.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The sector is already worried about
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          forthcoming tariffs
         </a>
         <span>
          , after a brief reprieve from Trump. (It’s also figuring out how to navigate the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          tricky spot occupied by Taiwan
         </a>
         <span>
          , a major manufacturing hub, in the U.S.-China trade fight.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Another cloud for business:
         </span>
         <span>
          Trump signed an executive order yesterday tasking the Commerce Department to begin an investigation that could end up
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          putting levies on critical minerals
         </a>
         <span>
          , many of which are used in making high-tech and military equipment.
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        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Trump’s hard-nosed China strategy is beginning to take shape.
         </span>
         <span>
          The aim of country-by-country trade talks is to extract guarantees that the countries will also
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          isolate China as a trade partner
         </a>
         <span>
          , The Wall Street Journal reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is said to be behind the strategy, which involves preventing China from using these countries as a base to ship to the U.S. and thus skirt trade barriers.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The initiative faces many questions.
         </span>
         <span>
          Has the administration’s on-again-off-again tariffs approach
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          already undermined
         </a>
         <span>
          the Trump team’s negotiating stance? (Consider: Why would trade partners give anything up if they believed Trump could be forced into granting exceptions?)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And where does this leave Trump’s other China bargaining objectives,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          including a deal for TikTok
         </a>
         <span>
          ?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But China isn’t exactly operating from a position of strength.
         </span>
         <span>
          Beijing reported today that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          first-quarter economic growth
         </a>
         <span>
          exceeded most analysts’ forecasts. But much of that appears to be because of a flood of orders aimed at getting ahead of Trump’s tariffs.
         </span>
        </p>
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            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          How would a protracted trade war hit the exports-driven economy? One potential countermeasure by Beijing: pressuring Chinese consumers to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          ditch American brands
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          There’s no resolution in sight.
         </span>
         <span>
          “The ball is in China’s court,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said yesterday. She added, “China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          China this morning said it wanted Trump to pick a point person and
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          show more respect
         </a>
         <span>
          before it agreed to talks, according to Bloomberg.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Others are feeling the cold shoulder from Washington.
         </span>
         <span>
          The European Union has made
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          little progress on trade talks
         </a>
         <span>
          , Bloomberg reports, as reciprocal tariffs and levies on cars and metals show no sign of lifting.
         </span>
        </p>
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            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It’s also worth watching how Japan, a close ally with a large trade surplus with the U.S., fares as
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          negotiations heat up
         </a>
         <span>
          . Trump posted on Truth Social that he would participate in those talks today as the administration pushes for a breakthrough on “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Tariffs, the cost of military support, and ‘TRADE FAIRNESS
         </a>
         <span>
          .’”
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
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           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td height="30">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          President Trump threatens Harvard’s tax-exempt status.
         </span>
         <span>
          On Truth Social, the president weighed whether to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          tax the school as a political entity
         </a>
         <span>
          after it
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          rebuffed a list of demands
         </a>
         <span>
          by his administration. Such a move could cost Harvard billions, on top of the billions in federal funding that is now frozen. Separately, Columbia’s acting president pledged to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          reject any government requirements
         </a>
         <span>
          that would “require us to relinquish our independence and autonomy.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Mark Zuckerberg reportedly offered to settle with the F.T.C. for nearly $1 billion.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Meta chief had repeatedly proposed ways to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          end the agency’s antitrust case
         </a>
         <span>
          on the eve of the matter going to trial and had lobbied Trump for support, according to The Wall Street Journal. But Andrew Ferguson, the F.T.C. chair, wouldn’t settle for less than $18 billion and a consent decree. On
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          day two of the trial
         </a>
         <span>
          , Zuckerberg defended Meta’s takeovers of Instagram and WhatsApp and conceded he had
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          considered spinning out Instagram
         </a>
         <span>
          in 2018.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Former President Joe Biden breaks his silence on Trump.
         </span>
         <span>
          In his first expansive public comments since leaving office, Biden accused the White House of “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          taking a hatchet
         </a>
         <span>
          ” to the Social Security Administration, as Americans grow concerned that entitlements could be on the chopping block amid thousands of potential job cuts at the agency. Trump has insisted those payouts are protected, but calls from worried people have flooded into the agencies’ offices.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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        <p style="color:#000;font:700 12px/15px arial,sans-serif;padding-bottom:2px;letter-spacing:.8px;margin:0">
         DEALBOOK SERIES: HOW TARIFFS ARE IMPACTING U.S. BUSINESS
        </p>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          ‘An emotional purchase’
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          We asked DealBook readers how tariffs had affected their companies. Today, we’re featuring a response from Ben Koren, the founder and C.E.O. of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Frameology
         </a>
         <span>
          , a direct-to-consumer photo framing company based in New York that employs 13 people and generates an eight-figure annual revenue.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          After the pandemic snarled supply chains, Koren switched to domestic suppliers, but the uncertainty around tariffs has started to hurt business. He writes:
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          All of our products are made in the U.S., but like many brands, we’ve historically relied on components from overseas — particularly China.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          After the COVID-19 disruptions, we realized how fragile global supply chains had become and began shifting aggressively toward domestic sourcing. It’s been a multiyear investment, but today more than 90 percent of our cost of goods sold is U.S.-sourced. We even launched a fully domestic product line, our
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Luxe Wall Collection
         </span>
         <span>
          , using American-made paper, molding and wood.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          It has definitely added to our cost basis — I estimate a hit of 300 to 400 basis points to our gross margins. But as it was a multiyear process we’ve been able to grind out savings around logistics and shipping to offset those increases. Net-net we’ve been able to maintain consistent pricing for our customers.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          We also stocked up significantly ahead of the 2024 election cycle, and currently hold a two-year supply of imported materials. As a result, the latest tariffs will have minimal impact on our pricing or ability to fulfill orders.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          What concerns us more is the demand picture. The uncertainty created by tariff wars, inflation fears, and market volatility is already weighing on consumer sentiment. Framing is an emotional purchase — but ultimately a discretionary one.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          A full-blown recession would hurt us far more than a material shortage. Comparing our pre- and post- “Liberation Day” growth rates, there was a noticeable pull back of around 37 percent. Time will tell if it persists, but it’s something we’re thinking about and trying to plan for.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          We’ve worked hard to future-proof our business. But economic instability, not supply disruption, is the greater threat now.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
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        </table>
        <p style="color:#000;font:700 12px/15px arial,sans-serif;padding-bottom:2px;letter-spacing:.8px;margin:0">
         DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U. S.? Or has it helped your business? Please
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          let us know what you’re doing
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
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           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
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           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="A close-up of Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan Chase." class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F04%252F16%252Fmultimedia%252F16db-newsletter-kjqz%252F16db-newsletter-kjqz-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NDQ4MDE0MzAuMzY1NDR9:1u50YY:7P9QtlGDM_TGJ7MiCczND3gAr2Z6uc-qfOqhshu2fSo" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              Jamie Dimon
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Al Drago for The New York Times
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Seen and heard, corporate edition
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “A lot of this uncertainty is challenging that a little bit, so you’re going to be reading about this nonstop until hopefully these tariff and trade wars settle down and go away, so people can say, ‘I can rely on America.’”
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          Jamie Dimon
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          of JPMorgan Chase, warning that President Trump’s tariffs policy risks eroding America’s economic primacy.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “If what you want is to build manufacturing capacity in the U.S., both in medtech and in pharmaceuticals, the most effective answer is not tariffs, but tax policy.”
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          Joaquin Duato
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          of Johnson &amp; Johnson, on the health giant’s earnings call yesterday. Duato added that domestic drug and health tech manufacturing had increased “significantly” since the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “The company’s outlook is dependent on the macro environment which the company believes is impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence. Accordingly, two guidance benchmarks are provided below.”
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          United Airlines
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          , unusually providing profit forecasts for both a “stable” environment and a “recessionary” one.
         </span>
         <span>
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Executives may say more on an earnings call today.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Our economists, your economists, I’m sure are all predicting a slowdown in growth.”
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          Brian Moynihan
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          of Bank of America, on an earnings call yesterday. But he defended his bank’s outlook, arguing that consumer spending hadn’t yet tailed off.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The tariff ad slump
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It’s hard to plan an ad campaign for a car when its cost may be about to skyrocket, or to market a toy that might not be imported from China by Christmas. And so President Trump’s tariffs are
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          hitting the $380 billion American advertising industry hard
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Among the signs of trouble, The Times’s Tiffany Hsu writes:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                In a survey conducted in February by the Interactive Advertising Bureau, 45 percent of American ad executives said they were planning to make cuts this year.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                WARC, a research firm, downgraded its expectations for ad spending growth over the next two years by $19.8 billion.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Publicis, one of the largest advertising holding companies, said on Tuesday that clients are “facing a very challenging situation” and may cut marketing budgets.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Ads are a lagging indicator of trouble in the U.S. economy.
         </span>
         <span>
          Companies’ unwillingness to invest in marketing is often viewed as a sign of whether G.D.P. will grow or contract. (Still, some companies are buying ads now to urge customers to buy before tariffs take effect.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          An ad slowdown could also affect the enormous U.S. services sector,
         </span>
         <span>
          which includes both tech giants like Google and Meta — the latter gets about 10 percent of its ad revenue from China — and entertainment companies including Netflix and CBS.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That could scramble some of America’s trade math: Services companies account for
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          72 percent
         </a>
         <span>
          of G.D.P. and accounted for a $300 billion trade surplus for the U.S. last year. Manufacturing, which Mr. Trump has repeatedly cited as a focus of his tariff policies, accounts for just
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          10 percent
         </a>
         <span>
          of G.D.P.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
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           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
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          We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support.
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             THE SPEED READ
            </span>
           </h3>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Deals
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Elliott Investment Management has reportedly taken a
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                $1.5 billion stake in Hewlett Packard Enterprise
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , with plans to push the tech company to bolster its stock price. (Bloomberg)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The hedge fund H Partners, which owns a 9 percent stake in Harley-Davidson, is said to be planning a
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                proxy fight at the motorcycle maker
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , seeking to oust several board members and its C.E.O. (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
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          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Politics, policy and regulation
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
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            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                A federal judge blocked President Trump’s effort to
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                punish the law firm Susman Godfrey
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                via executive order, calling his effort a “shocking abuse of power.” (NYT)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Some major banks are finding alternative ways to
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                communicate with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                after the financial regulator disclosed a cyberbreach. (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Best of the rest
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                A deep dive into how Elon Musk reportedly
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                manages his “legion” of children
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                by multiple mothers, including nondisclosure agreements, big monthly child-support payments and soliciting new surrogates via X. (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Elaine Wynn
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , the billionaire co-founder of Wynn Resorts and a prolific donor to education and arts organizations, died yesterday. She was 82. (LAT)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Jamie Dimon has hinted that when he steps down as JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., next act may be “
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                a little media thing
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                ” that “could be a competitor or an aid” to traditional publishers.
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Send us your best guess
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                ! (FT)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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         <span style="font-style:italic;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Correction:
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Monday’s newsletter
         </span>
         <span>
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          misstated details of the CK Hutchison port deal. The Geneva-based Terminal Investment was incorrectly described as a new bidder. It was already involved in deal talks.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.
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            <a class="css-12jlfj0" style="-webkit-text-decoration:underline;font-weight:600;color:#000;text-decoration:none;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc">
             Andrew Ross Sorkin
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            <span>
             , Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York
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            <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
             @andrewrsorkin
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             Ravi Mattu
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            <span>
             , Managing Editor, London
            </span>
            <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
             @ravmattu
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             Bernhard Warner
            </a>
            <span>
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