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Shifting gears
</h2>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Those looking for signs that the U.S. economy is slowing had plenty to gawk at yesterday. G.D.P.
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
shrank in the first quarter
</a>
, for the first time since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. Amazon said
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
its revenue rose at the slowest pace
</a>
since the dot-com bust. Apple said its supply chain woes
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
were only getting worse
</a>
. The S&P 500 index is on track to post its third monthly decline in four months.
</p>
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The conventional wisdom has been that the reopening from the pandemic, along with the money that Washington has poured into consumers’ pockets, would keep the economy chugging along well into 2022. For the past few months the fear, at least from the Fed, has been that the economy is too hot. But is the U.S. economic engine about to shift into a lower gear?
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Corporate profits continue to ramp up.
</span>
Despite a few high-profile misses, earnings have generally beaten expectations. According to FactSet, profits for the S&P 500 are likely to have risen by an average of nearly 7 percent in the first quarter of 2022 from the same period a year ago. Not bad for the second year of an economic recovery. But can companies keep it up as labor shortages push up wages, and the war in Ukraine and coronavirus lockdowns in China increase the costs of raw materials?
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Optimizing Your Marketing for an Omnichannel World
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Did you know that companies that adopt an omnichannel marketing strategy increase their ROI by 32 percent? Companies must have the right measurement tools and strategies in place to truly unlock that potential. At Analytic Partners, we have been empowering organizations to adapt, evolve and thrive for over 20 years. Download our white paper, "Omnichannel and a Brave New World," to learn how you can evolve your marketing and build and measure your success, both now and in the future.
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Access The Report.
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Companies say they can continue to raise prices.
</span>
For now, many are insulating themselves from the effects of those higher costs by increasing prices. This week,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
PepsiCo reported
</a>
a big jump in revenue in the first quarter, in large part because it raised prices by as much as 12 percent for Lay’s, Doritos and other snacks in the past year. Executives hinted that they may continue to charge more for products. But with gas prices at their highest levels in years, and government stimulus money no longer flowing, many economists think U.S. consumers may soon be tapped out.
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The stock market is set to record its worst month in two years, reflecting growing worries.
</span>
After a rally yesterday, the S&P 500 is falling again in premarket trading, in large part because of Amazon’s worse-than-expected results and Apple’s poor outlook. “Despite increased cost pressure, analysts continue to expect S&P net margins to reach new highs,” Savita Subramanian, Bank of America’s top stock strategist, wrote in a note to clients this week. “We see downside risks to the consensus.”
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It’s not just the U.S. —
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
the eurozone economy barely grew
</a>
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
in the first quarter, according to data released this morning.
</span>
</p>
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HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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Exxon and Chevron report huge jumps in first-quarter profits.
</span>
Thanks to rising energy prices, profit at
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Exxon
</a>
doubled, to $5.5 billion, and it would have been bigger if not for a $3.4 billion hit from quitting a Russian operation.
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Chevron
</a>
, which has less exposure to Russia than rival oil giants, saw its profit nearly quadruple, to $6.3 billion.
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President Biden seeks $33 billion in additional aid for Ukraine,
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anticipating prolonged conflict.
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“The cost of this fight is not cheap,”
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Biden said
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China sets an economic stimulus plan to offset Covid lockdowns.
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The
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aid measures include
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providing money for students and allowing employers to stop paying unemployment insurance to the government if they promise to keep workers on the job.
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Johnson & Johnson shareholders reject a proposal to end global talc sales.
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The resolution, fueled by concerns including the product’s potential links to cancer,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
failed to win a majority
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of investor votes.
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Goldman Sachs experiments with Bitcoin-backed loans.
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The bank said it had allowed a customer to borrow money
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
using cryptocurrency as collateral
</a>
. Meanwhile, the Labor Department criticized a plan by Fidelity to let people
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add Bitcoin to their retirement accounts
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.
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Twitter’s moderators fear the worst
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Elon Musk is amassing the funds he needs to buy Twitter,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
selling $4 billion in Tesla stock
</a>
this week, according to a filing released last night. He said there were
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
no further sales planned
</a>
, which may come as a relief to Tesla shareholders, as the electric carmaker’s shares have fallen 20 percent since he first revealed that he had bought a 9 percent stake in Twitter. (Relatedly, the way he disclosed that stake has reportedly attracted scrutiny from the F.T.C.,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The Information reports
</a>
.)
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At Twitter, frustration is mounting over Musk’s moderation plans
</span>
,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The Times’s Kate Conger reports
</a>
.
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
</span>
Employees who work in content moderation are uneasy about Musk’s position as a “free speech absolutist.” They said they worried that Musk understands little about the reasoning behind Twitter’s current rules, and that his moderation plans would return the company to its early years — and troubles. The Times saw a list of questions that Twitter employees compiled and hoped to ask Musk:
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
“You have said that you want more ‘free speech’ and less moderation on Twitter,” one said. “What will this mean in practice?”
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
“Some people interpret your arguments in defense of free speech as a desire to open the door back up for harassment. Is that true? And if not, do you have ideas for how to both increase free speech and keep the door closed on harassment?” another asked.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Some employees questioned whether Musk would halt their work during a critical moment, when they are set to begin moderating tweets about elections.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
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<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Musk’s free speech plans have advertisers worried, too.
</span>
Twitter has been reassuring brands concerned with the change in ownership that their ads would not be placed alongside harmful content,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The Financial Times reports
</a>
. Jonathan Greenblatt, the C.E.O. of the Anti-Defamation League, who helped set up an ad boycott against Facebook in 2020, said on Twitter that “
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
extremists” were celebrating
</a>
Musk’s plans for Twitter and that they believed he would let them return to the platform. “This is dangerous,” he wrote.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
For now, though, the moderators are still moderating.
</span>
Roger Stone, long a close ally of Donald Trump, tried to return to Twitter yesterday morning after being permanently banned in 2017. He was banned again within hours of creating a new account,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The Daily Beast reported
</a>
.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Further reading:
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<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Tesla’s
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
lucrative business in China could be at risk
</a>
if Twitter upsets the Chinese authorities.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Pre-deal, Musk told bankers that
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
he would cut jobs at Twitter
</a>
and mentioned
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
monetization ideas
</a>
, Bloomberg and Reuters report.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
When Musk opens the Twitter app,
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
he doesn’t see what everyone else sees
</a>
.
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
From
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Times Opinion
</a>
: “Elon Musk Is the Problematic Fiancé Twitter Deserves”
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
“There’s very little separation now between where you work and where you live. We’re seeing the same trend happening in clothing.”
</h2>
</td>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
— Sarah LaFleur, the chief executive of M.M.LaFleur, a women’s clothing brand that is trying to be known for more than office apparel.
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The workwear term du jour is “power casual.”
</a>
</span>
</p>
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<img class="css-1rg59gv e1e3sevz0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2021%252F01%252F29%252Fbusiness%252Fdealbook-icon-barchart%252Fdealbook-icon-barchart-articleLarge-v4.gif/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1nkOzy:m0nSbMjRjxNwwlOfbVJkpIfJE_HblRRe-rPb0oBrPi8" style="display:block;width:100%;height:auto;padding-bottom:25px;padding-top:10px"/>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
A loophole in laws on pay transparency
</h2>
</td>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
Yesterday, the New York City Council voted to
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
delay a pay transparency law
</a>
that was supposed to go into effect next month. The new law, which is now expected to go into force in November, requires employers to include the minimum and maximum salary for any open position where the work will be done in the city, whether it is remote or in person, salaried or hourly.
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
New Yorkers could look to Colorado to get a sense of what might happen. Colorado has had a pay transparency law since January 2021, and some national employers have tried to avoid compliance by
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
excluding Colorado residents
</a>
. Last year, 9NEWS in Denver found a number of job postings with language similar to this one from Nike: “
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Open to remote work, except in Colorado
</a>
.”
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
The Wall Street Journal highlighted
</a>
more examples.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
There are several reasons employers might prefer to avoid disclosing salary information
</span>
, such as not wanting their competitors to know how much they pay. But a more insidious reason might be that they would first have to close the gender and racial pay gaps for current workers, said Jim DeSimone, an employment lawyer and civil rights advocate in Los Angeles.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
It is unclear whether excluding job seekers from certain states is illegal,
</span>
DeSimone told DealBook, because the laws are new and haven’t been tested in the courts. The language in the Colorado postings “doesn’t seem to be discriminatory per se on the basis of a protected class, such as gender, but it could have an impact,” he said.
</p>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
“If you can show that the motivation of these companies in not wanting to hire particular employees from particular states is because they know internally they did discriminate,” DeSimone said, “then that’s something that can also be looked at” by, for example, federal regulators.
</p>
</td>
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</table>
</div>
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Even job postings with wide salary ranges can help candidates
</span>
in groups that have historically been underpaid, said Joe Holt, a professor at the Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame.
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
“What the research indicates is that women negotiate for salaries as effectively as men when they have a clear understanding of what they can expect to be paid,” Holt said. “But men negotiate higher pay than women when that information is not readily available.”
</p>
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</div>
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<h3 class="css-132hdgt e8bxl341" style="color:#000;font:700 16px/24px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
THE SPEED READ
</h3>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Deals
</span>
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<ul class="css-27qc8p e1darl2c0" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
KKR is taking Hitachi Transport private as part of a $5 billion deal. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
FT
</a>
)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
The private equity firm Leonard Green & Partners is reportedly nearing an $18.3 billion close across two funds. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Bloomberg
</a>
)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
G/O Media, the owner of Gizmodo and Deadspin, has acquired the business news site Quartz. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
NYT
</a>
)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Russia-Ukraine war
</span>
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-27qc8p e1darl2c0" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Ukraine’s president said Russia sent five missiles into Kyiv shortly after his talks with the U.N. secretary general ended there. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
NYT
</a>
)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Qatar is an unexpected beneficiary of the war in Ukraine. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Bloomberg
</a>
)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
For sale: Renault’s stake in the Russian automaker AvtoVAZ. Price: one ruble. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
WSJ
</a>
)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
Policy
</span>
</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
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<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-27qc8p e1darl2c0" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
California is investigating Exxon Mobil and other oil companies for apparently overstating how much recycling can reduce plastic trash. (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
WSJ
</a>
)
</span>
</li>
<li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
Frances Haugen: “Europe Is Making Social Media Better Without Curtailing Free Speech. The U.S. Should, Too.” (
<a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
Times Opinion
</a>
)
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2 years ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
DealBook: Headed for a slowdown?
The U.S. economic engine may be about to shift into a lower gear. View in browser|nytimes.comCont...