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   DealBook: Inflation stalks the markets and politics
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   Also, Amazon’s Andy Jassy doubles down on A.I.
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             April 11, 2024
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          Good morning. We’re covering the latest inflation report; digging into Andy Jassy’s annual letter to shareholders; naming another Paramount shareholder questioning a potential deal with Skydance; and looking at which C.E.O.s attended last night’s the state dinner for the Japanese prime minister. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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             The markets continue to dial back the odds of an interest-rate cut as inflation fears grow.
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             Susan Walsh/Associated Press
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        <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
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          What inflation means for the Fed and Biden
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          U.S. inflation jitters are being felt around the world this morning, after the latest
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Consumer Price Index report
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          showed inflation ticked up for a third straight month.
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          The dollar spiked overnight and traders slashed their bets on when — or
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          whether
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         <span>
          — the Fed would cut interest rates this year. Such uncertainty could last for months and complicate President Biden’s bid for a second term.
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          Traders this morning were pricing in less than two rate cuts for 2024
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          — down from more than six at the start of the year — possibly starting in July. But even that’s looking tenuous after headline C.P.I. hit 3.5 percent in March. The growing view on Wall Street is that inflation will need to get closer to the Fed’s 2 percent target before the central bank makes a move.
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          Some are going even further: Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary and a critic of the Fed’s handling of inflation, told Bloomberg that
         </span>
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          a rate
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          increase
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          can’t be ruled out.
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          The next inflation data comes out today at 8:30 a.m. Eastern,
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         <span>
          when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Producer Price Index, a key indicator for businesses.
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          Investors will also be tuning into today’s European Central Bank news conference. The big question: Will the E.C.B. cut before the Fed or will the U.S. inflation woes muzzle those calls?
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Politics could muddle the Fed’s timing.
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          The Fed is an independent body, but perceptions that it may lean either right or left tend to surface in election years. (
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Donald Trump
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          has already voiced his concern about possible Fed cuts this year).
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          “Rate reductions later this year may be complicated by policymakers seeking to avoid the appearance of taking positions on the presidential election campaign, which revs into high gear this summer,” José Torres, an economist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a client note yesterday. Deutsche Bank economists agree, saying the window for rate cuts could close this year Fif the inflation data doesn’t cool by July.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          The fallout from the C.P.I. could linger.
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          Higher-for-longer fears are rattling the bond market. Investors dumped U.S. sovereign debt yesterday, pushing the yield on the 10-year note to a five-month high. That could spell bad news for households as the rates on mortgages and other types of loans tend to edge higher as yields on 10-year Treasuries climb.
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          Biden’s poll ratings have sagged, as voters zero in on the higher cost of living even though the U.S. economy has grown faster than that of many comparable countries. Economists are increasingly wondering if the U.S. is heading for
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          a “no landing” scenario
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          of persistently high inflation that ties the Fed’s hands on rates.
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Thomas Barkin
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          , the Richmond Fed president, summed up the tough spot policymakers were in. “We need to be humble,” he said yesterday.
         </span>
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          The next thing to watch: corporate profits.
         </span>
         <span>
          Stocks rallied last quarter, thanks in part to stronger than expected corporate profits and hopes for imminent rate cuts. Cuts are in limbo, but a new earnings season kicks off with Wall Street heavyweights JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Wells Fargo reporting results tomorrow.
         </span>
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              HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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          The TikTok divestiture deadline could be extended.
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         <span>
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Maria Cantwell
         </a>
         <span>
          , the Washington State Democrat and Senate commerce committee chair, said she was open to giving ByteDance more time to sell the video platform. A House bill that overwhelmingly passed in March would force TikTok to split from the Chinese company within six months, or be banned from American app stores.
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          Elon Musk to visit India, amid reports he could build a new Tesla factory.
         </span>
         <span>
          Musk will meet with Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, during the trip this month and will announce plans to build a new factory to make electric vehicles,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Reuters reports
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         <span>
          . With Tesla sales growth slowing, Musk is looking to expand into new markets.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          President Biden warns of an Iranian attack on Israeli assets.
         </span>
         <span>
          Biden said Iran was threatening a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          “significant attack”
         </a>
         <span>
          in response to an Israeli missile strike last week on Iran’s embassy in Damascus that killed top military commanders. The president has reiterated his support for Israel even as he has increased his criticism of its tactics in the war against Hamas.
         </span>
        </p>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Amazon doubles down on A.I.
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Amazon has been on a tear in recent months. Its stock is up more than 80 percent in the past year and the tech giant is edging toward a market capitalization of $2 trillion on the back of its bets on artificial intelligence.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Andy Jassy’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          annual letter
         </a>
         <span>
          to Amazon shareholders has just been published and the C.E.O. is doubling down on A.I.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Here’s what stood out to DealBook:
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Amazon sees generative A.I. powering future breakthroughs.
         </span>
         <span>
          Jassy said the tech being used to power chatbots like ChatGPT will be key to how the company develops and builds new businesses. After
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a late start in A.I.
         </a>
         <span>
          , Amazon has stepped up its spending. It backed the A.I. start-up
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Anthropic
         </a>
         <span>
          to the tune of $4 billion — its biggest venture capital investment — and is building its own models that it hopes will be an emerging business line.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The company plans to do more in building A.I. chips.
         </span>
         <span>
          Nvidia dominates the sector. But companies are looking for more options. Amazon has already built two chips that are being used by Anthropic, Airbnb, Snap and others.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Jassy also sees strong potential for Amazon SageMaker, a service that helps companies organize their data so that it’s A.I.-ready.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Amazon’s dominant cloud business gives it an edge.
         </span>
         <span>
          Jassy says Amazon Web Services customers are increasingly turning to the computing platform to build and scale their A.I. applications.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And the company is building A.I. apps across all of its businesses while getting development partners to build on top of its tech.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Prime Video could be a profit machine.
         </span>
         <span>
          Amazon’s streaming platform has grown into a behemoth with more than 200 million monthly viewers and recently introduced advertising. Jassy is confident about the unit’s prospects, pointing to exclusive content like Thursday Night Football and high customer engagement. Could it be spun out?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Space could be the next frontier.
         </span>
         <span>
          Jassy said the company achieved a big milestone for Project Kuiper, its satellite internet business, when it launched two prototypes into space to provide broadband access in remote areas. The low-earth satellite business is dominated by Elon Musk’s Starlink, but Amazon sees room for growth. Its first production satellites are set for launch later this year.
         </span>
        </p>
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           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Paramount’s Skydance deal hits another bump
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          One more Paramount shareholder is going public with concerns about the media group’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          talks
         </a>
         <span>
          to merge with the film studio Skydance, DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch is first to report. Ariel Investments, which had a 1.8 percent stake in Paramount at the end of last year, is the biggest shareholder to join the growing list of investors that are openly pushing for a rethink.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Here’s a recap of the Paramount-Skydance negotiations.
         </span>
         <span>
          Shari Redstone’s holding company, National Amusements, controls Paramount via a supervoting class of stock. Skydance, run by tech scion David Ellison, has provisionally agreed to buy National Amusements. Paramount would then merge with Skydance in a deal that would value the studio at about $5 billion and would allow Redstone to cash out at a premium while other shareholders get diluted shares in a new company.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Ariel wants Paramount to consider a higher offer from Apollo Global Management.
         </span>
         <span>
          Ariel, an asset manager founded by the value investor John Rogers, says Paramount should look at a $26 billion proposal from Apollo, a private equity giant, despite concerns on financing. “Any merger talks that forego competitive bidding in favor of an exclusive discussion with a single buyer, particularly where the reported control premium differentiates the financial position of a single shareholder over all other shareholders,” an Ariel spokeswoman said, “is averse to the fair market value of a company.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Ariel also is worried about potential board changes at Paramount.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          four directors will leave
         </a>
         <span>
          . They are Dawn Ostroff, a former Spotify executive; Nicole Seligman, a former general counsel at Sony; the investment banker Frederick Terrell; and Rob Klieger, Redstone’s lawyer. Seligman, Ostroff and Terrell are also members of a special committee of independent directors tasked with finding the best deal for the company.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The changes “may compromise the board’s ability to act on behalf of all shareholders,” the Ariel spokeswoman said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Shares in Paramount closed 4 percent lower yesterday.
         </span>
        </p>
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         <tbody>
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           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="Jamie Dimon, in a black suit and bow tie, and his spouse, Judith Kent, in a red gown, walk past reporters in a room with Asian decorations." class="css-19kyn6d" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2024%252F04%252F11%252Fmultimedia%252F11db-dimon-pbkl%252F11db-dimon-pbkl-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3MTI4MzY5OTkuMzg4MzY4OH0:1rut9D:zrUe-bfVVgsnIwd-K43gVIJ7b21hEQwD-Ta3pK1-zrw" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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            <span class="css-14c9rv6" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
             <span class="css-9ddn05" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              Jamie Dimon, C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase, was one of the A-list invitees to Wednesday’s state dinner at the White House.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Shuran Huang for The New York Times
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Which C.E.O.s got invites to last night’s state dinner?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Some of the biggest figures in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          American and Japanese business
         </a>
         <span>
          joined President Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House last night for
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a state dinner
         </a>
         <span>
          to celebrate the deepening of ties between the two trading allies.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The U.S. executives included JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Apple’s Tim Cook, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, BlackRock’s Larry Fink, and Jon Gray of Blackstone. They adeptly ducked questions about whether their appearance signaled their support for Biden’s re-election. But the White House probably only invited C.E.O.s seen as supportive, and it was hard to avoid the mixing of business, politics and diplomacy.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          One other interesting name on the guest list: David McCall, president of United Steelworkers. The union has come out against
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Nippon Steel’s $14 billion bid for U.S. Steel
         </a>
         <span>
          . Biden has signaled he’s against it, too, and the union has endorsed him.
         </span>
        </p>
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            <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             <span>
              THE SPEED READ
             </span>
            </h3>
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          Deals
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-9m6grc" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                The Goldman Sachs treasurer
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                Philip Berlinsky
               </a>
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                is reportedly moving to Millennium Management as the latest high-level Goldman executive to be poached by the hedge fund. (FT)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                OpenAI’s Sam Altman met this week with investors and government officials in the United Arab Emirates as he pushed for the creation of
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                a global coalition
               </a>
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                focused on chips, energy and data centers. (Bloomberg)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Policy
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        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
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            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-9m6grc" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                Ron DeSantis, Florida’s Republican governor, has reportedly told potential donors
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                he plans to raise funds for Donald Trump
               </a>
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                . (NBC News)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
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        </div>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-9m6grc" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                Allen Weisselberg, Donald Trump’s longtime finance chief, was
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                sentenced to five months in jail
               </a>
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                for perjury in a fraud investigation related to the former president. (NYT)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Best of the rest
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-9m6grc" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                Meet
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                Stewart Hagestad
               </a>
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                , the merchant banker who’s competing in the Masters golf tournament. (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                “
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                How a Case Against Fox News
               </a>
               <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
                Tore Apart a Media-Fighting Law Firm” (NYT)
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
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         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter misstated the name of the managing director at the consultancy Seven Dials. He is Will Harrison, not Will Harris.
         </span>
        </p>
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          Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.
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