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   DealBook: Inside the U.S.-China trade détente
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             May 12, 2025
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          Good morning. The markets are cheering a breakthrough in trade talks between the United States and China. There’s plenty to be worked out, and tariffs are still in place. But it signals that the two sides are capable of de-escalation; more below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          )
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this morning announced a major, though temporary, breakthrough in trade talks with China.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Jean-Christophe Bott/Keystone, via Associated Press
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          A 90-day pause
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Stocks, the dollar and oil are soaring this morning after President Trump’s top negotiators
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          outlined the specifics
         </a>
         <span>
          of a major — though temporary — de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade fight.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Expectations were sky-high for some kind of breakthrough. The market reaction suggests mission accomplished in terms of reaching an important détente, though significant trade barriers remain and plenty still needs to be worked out.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          “The consensus from both delegations is that neither side wanted a decoupling,”
         </span>
         <span>
          Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who was a point person in the U.S.-China talks in Geneva over the weekend, said today. “Now we have the mechanism in place for further talks,” he added, noting that the framework agreement expires after 90 days. Those talks could come in “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the next few weeks
         </a>
         <span>
          ,” Bessent told CNBC.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Here’s what is in the agreement:
         </span>
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The U.S. will lower tariffs on Chinese imports to 30 percent from its current 145 percent.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                China will lower duties on U.S. goods to 10 percent from 125 percent.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Sector-specific tariffs are not part of this deal, according to Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative. Trump has imposed targeted levies on items including Chinese-made semiconductors, medical devices, and aluminum and steel imports.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                China will
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                remove nontariff export controls
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , but did not say whether it would lift restrictions on critical mineral shipments to the U.S. Beijing said it looked forward to
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                stable and sustainable trade relations
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Both sides appear to see futility in clobbering each other with huge tariffs.
         </span>
         <span>
          The tit-for-tat measures had created “the equivalent of an embargo, and neither side wants that,” Bessent said. Companies have been warning that the levies would upend global supply chains and
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          force them to raise prices
         </a>
         <span>
          . (Apple is weighing
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          raising prices on its fall lineup of iPhones
         </a>
         <span>
          , but is determined not to blame tariffs publicly for the move, according to The Wall Street Journal.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That uncertainty has virtually paralyzed corporate investment and hiring, analysts say, and pushed the Fed into limbo on interest rates as it watches for any fallout on inflation and the labor market.
         </span>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Trump seems onboard with today’s agreement.
         </span>
         <span>
          Yesterday, he hailed the state of talks on Truth Social, calling it “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner
         </a>
         <span>
          .”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But the terms are far more dovish than what he called for
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          just three days ago
         </a>
         <span>
          : 80 percent tariffs on China “seems right,” he wrote on Friday, adding it would be “up to Scott B,” an apparent reference to Bessent.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Investors had regarded the China impasse as the toughest trade hurdle to surmount.
         </span>
         <span>
          Any progress there is likely to fuel optimism for further deals. “The worst of his trade wars and much of the crippling uncertainty could be over within two months from now,” Holger Schmieding, the chief economist for Berenberg, wrote in a research note this morning.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          However, higher tariffs will stick, and the biggest damage would be to American businesses and households, Schmieding added.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Among those rallying this morning in premarket trading are tech giants with big exposure to China, including Nvidia, Amazon and Apple.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
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        <p style="color:#000;font:700 12px/15px arial,sans-serif;padding-bottom:2px;letter-spacing:.8px;margin:0">
         DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Or have the tariffs helped your business? Please
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          let us know what you’re doing
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          .
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          President Trump’s drug-pricing plan rattles pharma stocks.
         </span>
         <span>
          The president announced on Truth Social that he would
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          sign an executive order today
         </a>
         <span>
          seeking to lower drug prices to levels that peer countries pay. (In his first term, Trump unsuccessfully tried to do something similar with dozens of drugs covered under Medicare.) The move is likely to face stiff court challenges; still, shares in global drugmakers
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          fell sharply this morning
         </a>
         <span>
          . Separately, House Republicans yesterday released a proposal that would
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          vastly weaken Medicaid coverage
         </a>
         <span>
          , as the party seeks cost savings to pay for expansive tax cuts later this year.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Air travel could be disrupted nationwide, U.S. official says.
         </span>
         <span>
          After another radar outage at Newark Liberty International Airport on Friday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy told NBC’s “Meet the Press With Kristen Welker” yesterday that he would begin discussions about
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          scaling back flights there
         </a>
         <span>
          — and that the problems at Newark may be affecting other airports. Duffy said regulators had been finding “antiquated systems” at airport traffic control sites nationwide.
         </span>
        </p>
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            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Inflation will be front and center this week.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Consumer Price Index report for April is scheduled for publication tomorrow, with economists expecting to see new evidence of Trump’s trade war
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          reigniting inflation
         </a>
         <span>
          . The health of the consumer will come into focus on Thursday with the release of retail sales and Walmart’s latest quarterly earnings. On Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is set for publication, as some polls show Trump’s handling of the economy
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          eroding his approval rating
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           </td>
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           <td height="20">
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          What Qatar might gain from a gifted 747
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Critics of President Trump were outraged over the weekend by reports that he is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          poised to accept a Boeing 747-8 from Qatar
         </a>
         <span>
          — valued at $400 million — as an upgraded Air Force One.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          While White House officials said such a move would be done in compliance with federal law, skeptics said it represented a clear violation of ethics rules and a conflict of interest. It’s worth noting what Qatar has already gotten from Trump, and what it might gain in the future.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A recap:
         </span>
         <span>
          Qatar is in talks to give the 747, currently owned by the emirate’s royal family, to the administration, The Times reports, with the plane later being donated to Trump’s presidential library. That might mean he could use it after his term ends.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Trump has long complained about the state of the U.S. government’s current Air Force One planes, and excoriated Boeing as being slow in providing replacements. That said, the jumbo jet wouldn’t be available right away, since a U.S. contractor would still need to retrofit it to meet military standards.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          ABC News, which broke the news, reports that administration lawyers concluded such a gift would be acceptable because it
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          isn’t conditioned on a specific request
         </a>
         <span>
          , and the plane would be given to the federal government. A Qatari official added that such a gift would be a temporary loan.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Critics didn’t mince words about what they saw as a clear violation of federal law.
         </span>
         <span>
          The Qataris have an expansive array of business interests tied to the U.S., including energy projects and investments. Good-government advocates also noted that Trump’s family business just announced that it will
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          build a new golf resort in Qatar
         </a>
         <span>
          , which will be developed in part by a state-owned business.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “The corruption is brazen,”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Senator Adam Schiff
         </a>
         <span>
          , Democrat of California, wrote on X. “Nothing says ‘America First’ like Air Force One, brought to you by Qatar,” added
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Senator Chuck Schumer
         </a>
         <span>
          of New York, the minority leader. “It’s not just bribery, it’s premium foreign influence with extra legroom.” (
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Trump pointedly dismissed
         </a>
         <span>
          such criticism on Truth Social.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The president has already faced criticism over an array of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          seeming conflicts of interest
         </a>
         <span>
          , including his family’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          business interests in cryptocurrency
         </a>
         <span>
          , a sector he and Republicans are pushing to deregulate.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Worth watching:
         </span>
         <span>
          Trump’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          visit to three Middle Eastern allies
         </a>
         <span>
          — Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi — starting today, which will be his first major international trip. (A deal for the Qatari 747 isn’t expected to be announced during the trip.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Among Trump’s priorities is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          striking “economic agreements”
         </a>
         <span>
          with the three governments to invest more in the U.S., CNN reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Why was a copyright regulator fired?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Trump administration has drawn criticism for dismissing scores of government officials suddenly and seemingly without explanation.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          one of the latest such moves
         </a>
         <span>
          is notable because of its timing — and for a potential benefit to a corner of the tech industry that President Trump has championed, artificial intelligence.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Shira Perlmutter was fired as head of the U.S. Copyright Office on Saturday,
         </span>
         <span>
          after holding the post since October 2020, in the first Trump administration. No reason was given.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The legality of the move is unclear:
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Politico reports
         </a>
         <span>
          that her position is appointed and supervised by the librarian of Congress, who must be nominated by the president and approved by the Senate — except that the last librarian, Carla Hayden,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          was dismissed on Thursday
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Critics of the move pointed to a report on A.I. that Perlmutter’s office published last week,
         </span>
         <span>
          which questioned how much data A.I. developers need to train their models.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          From the document
         </a>
         <span>
          :
         </span>
        </p>
        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
         <span>
          When a model is deployed for purposes such as analysis or research — the types of uses that are critical to international competitiveness — the outputs are unlikely to substitute for expressive works used in training. But making commercial use of vast troves of copyrighted works to produce expressive content that competes with them in existing markets, especially where this is accomplished through illegal access, goes beyond established fair use boundaries.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:20px 0 15px">
         <span>
          Still, the report didn’t urge direct action by the government, at least for now.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          A.I. companies have argued for more permissive copyright rules to keep creating more-capable models, with Elon Musk suggesting last month on X that he favored
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          scrapping all intellectual property laws
         </a>
         <span>
          . (Disclaimer: The Times is suing OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement of news content related to A.I. systems.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A.I. is an industry that Trump has championed,
         </span>
         <span>
          having announced the expansive Stargate data center project led by OpenAI and SoftBank. OpenAI’s Sam Altman also donated $1 million to Trump’s inauguration, while Musk remains a close ally of the president.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “It’s surely no coincidence” that Perlmutter was fired “less than a day after she refused to rubber-stamp Elon Musk’s efforts to mine troves of copyright works to train AI models,” Representative Joe Morelle, Democrat of New York and the ranking member of the Committee on House Administration, wrote on X.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The White House has not responded to news organizations’ requests for comment on Perlmutter’s firing.
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                In other A.I. news: Pope Leo XIV this weekend said that it would be a
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                focus of his papacy
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , suggesting that he will continue his predecessor’s calls for greater worker protections amid the technology’s rapid commercialization.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
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                In I.P.O. news: CATL, the Chinese electric-vehicle battery maker, plans to
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                raise up to $4 billion
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                in a Hong Kong listing; and British bankers are reportedly
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                focusing on other London I.P.O. candidates
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                as Shein’s offering stalls. (WSJ, Bloomberg)
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Cushioned Tiger Global’s Megafund Losses
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                ” (The Information)
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                The Court of International Trade in Manhattan will hear a case this week involving small companies who are
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                challenging the legality of President Trump’s tariffs
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                . (WSJ)
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                How Dartmouth has
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                avoided Trump’s war on elite universities
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                , at least so far. (NYT)
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                Some Republican lawmakers are
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                bracing for a showdown
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                over limits on military spending that have been pushed by Elon Musk and Trump’s top budget official, Russ Vought. (WSJ)
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                Klarna said it had stopped hiring new workers because it was focusing on using artificial intelligence. Now the buy-now-pay-later lender is
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                reversing course
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                . (Bloomberg)
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                ” (NYT)
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                Even award-winning writers are
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                turning to Substack
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                to publish their latest works of fiction, experimenting with new formats and reviving old devices like serialized releases. (The New Yorker)
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                The inside story on how a quiet American
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                emerged as the next pope
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                . (NYT)
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