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April 5, 2024
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Good morning. We look at the turmoil that rising oil prices are causing in the markets; examine how Paramount’s board is weighing Shari Redstone’s interests with those of other shareholders in any deal; delve into the latest pushback on the S.E.C.’s climate rules; and assess who will pay to rebuild the Baltimore bridge. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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The price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is booming again as geopolitical concerns rise.
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Turar Kazangapov/Reuters
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Oil spike ripples through global markets
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The price of Brent crude rose again this morning, at one point topping $91 a barrel. Growing tensions in the Middle East have pushed the global benchmark to levels last reached in October.
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That poses a potential problem for President Biden ahead of the election and raises new questions about when the Fed will start cutting interest rates.
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Some analysts believe the oil rally is just beginning
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, creating a fresh inflation risk for central bankers who are struggling to keep price-increases in check. JPMorgan Chase
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last week that oil would climb above $100 by September. And, in a bad sign for motorists,
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gasoline prices
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in the U.S. have climbed 6 percent in the past month just ahead of the North American summer driving season.
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Market watchers have been concerned about a wider Middle Eastern conflict after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.
</span>
<span>
Most recently, oil traders have been bracing for Iranian retaliation after an Israeli
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
airstrike on Tehran’s consulate
</a>
<span>
in Damascus, Syria.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“If we get a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, that’s something that will likely restrict the supply of oil coming from the Middle East,” Matt Maley, an analyst at Miller Tabak + Co.,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
told Bloomberg
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
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Continue reading the main story
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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That edginess was evident yesterday.
</span>
<span>
Stocks fell and crude prices jumped after the White House disclosed details of
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Biden’s tense phone call
</a>
<span>
with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, in which the president demanded that more be done to protect civilians and aid workers in Gaza.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The S&P 500 is on pace for its worst weekly performance since October
</span>
<span>
, according to Deutsche Bank data. Investors are fretting about how rising energy prices could mess up the Fed’s outlook on cutting interest rates.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Another big factor to watch: The
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
jobs report
</a>
<span>
comes out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, which is likely to reveal new clues on wage growth.
</span>
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Is Alphabet weighing an advertising mega deal?
</span>
<span>
The parent company of Google has discussed a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
takeover bid for HubSpot
</a>
<span>
, a maker of online marketing software whose market value is more than $33 billion, according to Reuters. An acquisition would be Alphabet’s biggest ever — and a rare example of a tech giant pursuing a giant takeover while facing tough antitrust scrutiny in Washington and abroad.
</span>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Ford delays production of several electric vehicle models.
</span>
<span>
The carmaker said it would focus on
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
making more hybrid cars and trucks
</a>
<span>
, as it stalls manufacturing at least two fully electric lines. It’s the latest auto company to pull back from E.V.s amid slower-than-expected sales because of cost, range anxiety and more.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Nelson Peltz is said to claim a hefty consolation prize from his Disney fight.
</span>
<span>
The activist investor earned a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
paper profit of about $300 million
</a>
<span>
from his 16-month battle with the media giant, The Wall Street Journal reported. That may reduce the sting from Peltz failing to win any Disney board seats, though the roughly 40 percent gain in the share price it represents is about equal to the S&P 500’s return for the same period.
</span>
</p>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
A “chess game” at Paramount
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
When a company evaluates a deal involving management or a controlling shareholder — think
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
RJR’s acquisition of Nabisco
</a>
<span>
— it usually appoints a special committee of board members to weigh what to do.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That’s the case in Paramount’s talks to merge with the studio Skydance. The assembled group
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
faces competing demands
</a>
<span>
, The Times’s Ben Mullin and DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch write: agree to a deal that its controlling shareholder, Shari Redstone wants, but also balance that against what’s best for other shareholders.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Paramount’s complex ownership structure makes things tricky.
</span>
<span>
Redstone controls the media giant via her holding company, National Amusements, which owns a supervoting class of stock. But National Amusements owns just a small fraction of Paramount’s
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic">
overall
</span>
<span>
shares.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Redstone has endorsed a deal with Skydance, which would also buy out National Amusements, likely for a premium. But Paramount also received an overture from the investment firm Apollo Global Management about buying the whole company for $26 billion — which Paramount ignored, amid questions about how it would be financed.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Many investors seem unhappy with how things are going.
</span>
<span>
Paramount’s shares tumbled 8.5 percent yesterday, after CNBC reported that a Skydance deal might require the company to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
raise more equity
</a>
<span>
. “It is beyond baffling to see the Paramount board of directors ignore an all-cash offer for 100 percent of Paramount,” the media analyst Rich Greenfield told The Times.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Some prominent shareholders have already weighed in:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-9m6grc" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Mario Gabelli, whose asset management firm owns 10 percent of Paramount’s voting stock, says he doesn’t favor a sale now because he believes the company is undervalued.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
John Rogers Jr., whose firm owned 1.8 percent of Paramount’s stock as of Dec. 31, says he’s open to a transaction with Skydance.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The fate of Paramount will come down to its special committee,
</span>
<span>
composed of independent directors. Such a group, at least on paper, has a lot of power, since it can decide
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic">
not
</span>
<span>
to recommend the Skydance bid.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Those directors have to play a game of chess,
</span>
<span>
according to Jim Woolery, a veteran deal maker who runs the advisory firm Woolery & Company. That may mean using Apollo’s interest as leverage to extract more favorable terms from Skydance.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The committee also could negotiate a low breakup fee in any deal agreement, as well as a so-called go-shop provision to allow it to seek higher takeover bids elsewhere.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
A big goal is to avoid long and costly litigation.
</span>
<span>
The activist investor Carl Icahn
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
tied up the sale of Dell
</a>
<span>
for months in 2013 by arguing that the transaction was unfair to most shareholders.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Redstone appears aware of that risk, leaving deliberations about Paramount’s future to the special committee. But it’s clear she’s a seller in any case, even if the board opposes the Skydance bid.
</span>
</p>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Pressing pause on climate rules
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The S.E.C. has been under fire from red states and business lobbying groups since approving new rules last month that require companies to disclose their climate risks.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The future of the green mandates, a big piece of President Biden’s policy agenda, look less certain after the agency took the unusual move of
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
halting them
</a>
<span>
yesterday.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The growing legal risk may have left it little choice,
</span>
<span>
according to Joseph Grundfest, a Stanford law professor and former S.E.C. commissioner. “The commission has likely smelled the coffee” and voluntarily stayed its rules before being ordered to, he told DealBook.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
More than 30 parties are challenging the new rules
</span>
<span>
, which call for greater transparency about the climate risks facing companies. (Opponents include energy companies and industry groups.)
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
</span>
<span>
When the rules were first introduced, Gary Gensler, the S.E.C. chair, said they would
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
help protect trillions
</a>
<span>
in investors’ money.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
A group of Republican state attorneys general subsequently
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
sued the agency
</a>
<span>
, arguing that it had overstepped its authority and that companies already disclose enough climate-risk data to investors. Their counterparts in Democratic-controlled states have
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
defended the rules
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The S.E.C. says it isn’t backing down.
</span>
<span>
“In issuing a stay, the commission is not departing from its view that the final rules are consistent with applicable law and within the commission’s long-standing authority,” the agency wrote in its order. It added that it “will continue vigorously defending the final rules’ validity in court.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Meanwhile, companies already face heightened climate disclosure requirements
</span>
<span>
in
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
</span>
<span>
the E.U. and California. Similar mandates are pending in New York and Illinois.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Politics could muddle the future of such mandates.
</span>
<span>
If Republicans regain the White House, expect an unwinding or watering down of the S.E.C. rules, said Jane Norberg, a partner at Arnold & Porter who formerly worked at the commission.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-1ux4czy" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Who will pay for the collapse of the Baltimore bridge?
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
President Biden is set to visit the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore today, to look at the damage caused by a deadly accident that will cost billions to fix. Biden pledged that the federal government would pay the “entire cost” after a cargo ship rammed into the bridge, but the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
fight over insurance claims
</a>
<span>
has started — and could take years to sort out.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The shipping channel will be
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
partly reopened
</a>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
by the end of the month,
</span>
<span>
officials said yesterday. They added that they hoped the lane would be fully cleared by the end of May, easing
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
pressure on companies
</a>
<span>
that have had to find alternatives to one of the biggest ports on the East Coast.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Figuring out who has to pick up the tab will be expensive and messy.
</span>
<span>
Insurers and reinsurers could be on the hook for up to $4 billion, industry experts told The Times.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The legal wrangling started this week when the ship’s Singapore-based owner and the operator filed a U.S. court petition to limit their liability to $43.7 million. They cited an 1851 law that allows shipowners to largely cap financial damages to the value of a ship after a crash, provided the owner isn’t at fault.
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If the shipowner were found to be liable, the calculation would change:
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The first $10 million
</span>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
of claims would be covered by its insurer, a mutual association called Britannia P&I Club. This could include coverage for deaths, debris removal, property damage and cargo damage.
</span>
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Costs after that and up to $100 million
</span>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
would be shared by members of the London-based International Group of P&I Clubs, an association that insures about 90 percent of the world’s oceangoing tonnage.
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Beyond that, dozens of reinsurers would cover costs up to about $3 billion.
</span>
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Some reinsurers expect that businesses looking to file claims could use that widely publicized figure as a target.
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The costs are big but not a death knell for the reinsurance industry.
</span>
<span>
The sector has faced much bigger claims in recent years — in 2022, Hurricane Ian caused more than $50 billion in insured losses — and policymakers hope it will be able to cover the payouts without requiring government support.
</span>
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The White House said responsible parties would be held accountable but it wasn’t going to wait to start rebuilding.
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THE SPEED READ
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Deals
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The small activist hedge fund Bluebell Capital is proposing to
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unseat Larry Fink as BlackRock’s chairman
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. (WSJ)
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The F.T.C. warned hundreds of companies, including Pfizer and Thermo Fisher Scientific, that it may
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challenge their acquisitions
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even after a review deadline has passed. (Bloomberg)
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“Want to Invest in SpaceX or Stripe?
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There’s a Fund for That.
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” (NYT)
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Policy
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Inside the campaign by allies of President Biden to win the endorsements of
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anti-Trump Republicans
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like Nikki Haley — and their donors. (CNBC)
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The Biden administration wants for-profit space companies to start paying for
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their use of government resources
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like air traffic control. (NYT)
</span>
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Best of the rest
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The C.E.O. of YouTube warned that any efforts by OpenAI to train its artificial intelligence tools using videos on its platform would
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violate its terms of service
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. (Bloomberg)
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Apple plans to
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lay off 614 employees
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in California after shutting down its car project, its biggest round of job cuts since the pandemic. (CNBC)
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