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   DealBook: Tariffs cheat sheet
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             April 5, 2025
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          Good morning. President Trump’s tariffs have sparked a global trade war, sending markets into a tailspin and plunging corporate America into chaos. We asked economists, investors and other experts to help make sense of what’s next. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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             The Port of Oakland on Thursday.
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             Bronte Wittpenn/San Francisco Chronicle, via Associated Press
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          Game change
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          It was much worse than expected. President Trump’s attempt to reverse the rules of global trade through sweeping tariffs against dozens of nations, including major partners like the European Union, Japan and China, has caused a meltdown in global markets and sent
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          corporate boardrooms
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          scrambling.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Today, 10 percent tariffs go into effect on all of America’s trading partners except Canada and Mexico. Additional, “reciprocal” tariffs will go into effect on dozens of other nations on Wednesday. China faces the toughest levies —
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          at least 54 percent
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          — and it hit back with its
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          own toll on U.S. goods
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          yesterday. Expect a response from the E.U. next week.
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          Trump has argued
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          that the economic pain caused by the tariffs will be short term and ultimately justified by a boom in the U.S. economy, but news of the measures hit investors hard. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 closed yesterday near
         </span>
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          bear market territory
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          , with analysts warning of an increased risk of recession.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Jerome Powell, the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve, offered a somewhat
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          glum outlook
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          yesterday on the prospects for growth and warned of higher prices that he acknowledged could be more than temporary.
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          There’s a lot going on. DealBook asked economists, investment researchers and other experts to help make sense of what’s next.
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         <span>
          How have the new tariffs changed the risk of a recession?
         </span>
        </h2>
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         <span style="font-style:italic;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          We asked:
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Jason Furman, a professor of economics at Harvard and former economic adviser to President Barack Obama.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “The ‘known knowns’ of all the tariffs President Trump has announced so far will subtract about one percentage point from G.D.P. growth, lowering it from what would have been around 2 percent this year to something more like 1 percent. This is what you would infer from a standard macroeconomic model that is based on trade shares and how they respond to price changes.
         </span>
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         <span>
          “The problem is just how big the ‘unknown unknowns’ are: Consumer confidence is plunging, business uncertainty is the highest ever recorded, asset prices are falling, all of which only go in one direction for growth, which is down. If we have a recession, it will be these intangible perception factors that were the cause.”
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          Other views:
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         <span>
          In a note titled “There Will Be Blood,” JPMorgan’s chief economist on Thursday
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          raised the odds of a global recession to 60 percent
         </a>
         <span>
          from 40 percent. “The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified — through retaliation, a slide in U.S. business sentiment and supply chain disruptions,” he wrote.
         </span>
        </p>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Do U.S. tariffs open opportunities for China?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          We asked:
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Gabriel Wildau, a specialist on political risk in China at the advisory firm Teneo.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Exports have been the saving grace of China’s economy in recent years, and now it will have to rely more on domestic demand to generate growth. But reduced access to the U.S. economy will force U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea, which were once firmly aligned with Washington’s efforts to contain China, to rethink that alignment.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “President Trump believes that tariffs will force global companies to invest in U.S.-based production, but this incentive might be overwhelmed by a perception among global companies that investment in the U.S. now comes with a high degree of political risk. By contrast, China’s leadership has engaged in a global charm offensive to lure multinational investors, as evidenced most recently by President Xi’s meeting with a group of 40 global executives last week.
         </span>
        </p>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “I’ve heard from foreign companies operating in China that senior government officials are more accessible than ever for meetings. At these meetings, these officials are highly solicitous, often directly instructing underlings to address the complaints that foreign companies raise. China has been suffering from declining foreign direct investment inflows, but the Trump shock now creates an opportunity to reverse this decline.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Other views:
         </span>
         <span>
          Trump has targeted not only China, which
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          faces at least 54 percent tariffs
         </a>
         <span>
          , but also many of the alternate routes, like Vietnam and Cambodia, through which Chinese goods travel to U.S. consumers as a way to avoid the stiff penalties applied to Beijing.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “If no nation can escape from tariffs, I’m wondering if global supply chains will gravitate back to China, where the economics of manufacturing are too attractive,” Han Shen Lin, China country director for the Asia Group, a consulting firm,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          told The Times
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “There’s also a small chance that the tariffs drive China and the E.U., the second-largest consumer market, closer together,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Jeanna Smialek wrote for The Times
         </a>
         <span>
          , but “there is an even greater possibility that this moment will tear the E.U. and China further apart.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          How long does it take manufacturing companies to pivot their supply chains?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          We asked:
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Erin McLaughlin, a senior economist at the Conference Board and former vice president of private resources at the American Council of Engineering Companies.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “It can take manufacturers anywhere from several months to years to pivot their supply chains in reaction to tariffs. Factors include the complexity of products being manufactured, whether up- and downstream suppliers can accommodate domestic production, and the long process of environmental approvals, permitting, designing, building and equipping a factory.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Modern manufacturing facilities often include high-tech features such as robotics that guide specialized processes — advancements far more sophisticated than those of the 20th century. Companies typically place orders for such customized capital equipment years in advance.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “And, of course, new manufacturing facilities require money to build and people to operate. So additional challenges around the high cost of financing, market uncertainties including inflation and the availability of qualified labor also weigh on decisions to domesticate supply chains.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Other views:
         </span>
         <span>
          Apple’s yearslong work to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          shift production of some products out of China
         </a>
         <span>
          highlights the challenges companies face in responding to changes in trade policy. But some
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          U.S. industries
         </a>
         <span>
          are eager for tariffs, even as many economists and business leaders say they are skeptical that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          reviving U.S. manufacturing is even possible
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Tariffs are viewed as inflationary. Does that mean the Fed is done cutting interest rates this year?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          We asked:
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “We went from zero Fed cuts this year to one, so we actually raised our expected number of cuts. But all we did was pull forward cuts we previously expected in 2026 by a few months. We think the Fed will hold rates steady until December 2025.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Ultimately, we think the increase in inflation from these tariffs will be significant, and we expect core P.C.E. will rise to above 4.5 percent year over year in 2025. This inflation will, we think, be a higher priority for the Fed than below-trend growth. The framework of our view — that the Fed will prioritize fighting tariff-induced inflation — has been consistent since Trump was elected.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “We moved the timing of Fed cuts forward primarily because the tariffs look set to hit all at once instead of being phased in. This means that the inflation hit will be sharper, but it will also be shorter. With tariffs coming into effect so quickly, we see a good chance that monthly inflation readings will turn more benign later in the year, thereby allowing the Fed to start cutting rates in December.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Another view:
         </span>
         <span>
          Morgan Stanley sees
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          no cuts this year
         </a>
         <span>
          ; after yesterday’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          blowout jobs report
         </a>
         <span>
          , the futures market was
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          penciling in four
         </a>
         <span>
          cuts by year-end. In his first
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          public comments since Trump announced the tariffs on Friday
         </a>
         <span>
          , Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said that the tariffs risked stoking even higher inflation and slower growth than initially expected, and that it was “too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Is this the end of globalization?
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          We asked:
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Ian Bremmer, the global strategist who founded Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Globalization has been adrift for some time now. The United States has been on the sidelines pushing its own industrial policy — which the world saw under both Trump and Biden. But until Liberation Day, the U.S. had not been actively unwinding it. World leaders and companies still relied on economic cooperation. They sourced their products across interconnected supply chains and sold their goods around the world.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “But it’s safe to say that the era of globalization has officially ended. Much like the British after Brexit but at a global scale, we’re in whole a new era. Even if countries manage to cut deals with the U.S. in the short term, over the long term they will try to de-risk themselves from American volatility and higher prices. The message these tariffs sent were clear.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Other views:
         </span>
         <span>
          Ryan Petersen, the chief executive and founder of Flexport, which makes supply chain logistics software, told DealBook that trade had survived events like world wars, the Black Death, colonialism and de-colonialism, and argued, “All of those things were far more disruptive to the status quo than anything we’re living through right now.” He thinks there will be more trade, not less, in 10 years.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the World Trade Organization,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          said in a statement yesterday
         </a>
         <span>
          that Trump’s tariffs “could lead to an overall contraction of around 1 percent in global merchandise trade volumes this year, representing a downward revision of nearly four percentage points from previous projections,” and that she was “deeply concerned about this decline and the potential for escalation.”
         </span>
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