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DealBook: Trump and investors vs. the Fed
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April 17, 2025
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Good morning. Jay Powell warned that the Fed won’t backstop stock markets amid President Trump’s trade war, creating a new rift with the White House. More below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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Jay Powell, the Fed chair, essentially told jittery investors: You’re on your own, for now.
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“A difficult place”
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Volatility has been a near-daily feature of President Trump’s trade war. And this morning is no exception as the president escalates his feud with the Fed.
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The latest beef started yesterday. Investors learned that the Fed was in no rush to bail out their battered portfolios even as Jay Powell, the central bank’s chair, warned that tariffs could
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
With Powell signaling that the central bank won’t intervene any time soon to buoy asset prices — known in market-speak as the “Fed put” — stocks fell sharply. But investors are questioning the Fed’s resolve and are left to wonder about threats to its independence.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Trump called for rate cuts on Truth Social this morning,
</span>
<span>
repeating his frequent demand that the central bank lower borrowing costs. “‘Too Late’ Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete ‘mess!’”
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Trump posted
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
He added, “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” (Powell’s term as the central bank’s chair ends next year; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has recently emphasized his good relations with the Fed chair, said this week that the White House will
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
start interviewing potential successors
</a>
<span>
this fall.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Investors appear to be disregarding Powell’s warnings.
</span>
<span>
Markets are pricing in four Fed rate cuts this year. That’s even after Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago yesterday that “for the time being, we are well positioned to wait” as the Fed closely watches the inflationary effects of tariffs. (In the latest warning from corporate America, Ford said it may need to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
raise prices
</a>
<span>
as soon as next month.)
</span>
</p>
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</td>
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<td>
<div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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<span style="text-align:center">
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<td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-bottom:1px solid #dcdcdc">
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</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Powell sees the Fed between a rock and hard place.
</span>
<span>
Tariffs have increased the odds of stagflation, he said, with a “strong likelihood” of higher consumer prices and higher unemployment.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That could
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
tie policymakers’ hands
</a>
<span>
, since lower borrowing costs, for example, could bolster the labor market but reignite inflation.
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
In other tariffs news: California yesterday
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
sued to overturn the levies
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, calling the trade war an illegal act that has done “immediate and irreparable harm.” But the U.S. Chamber of Commerce reportedly
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
backed off on filing a lawsuit
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, instead focusing on lobbying efforts, according to Politico. And while Trump hailed “
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
big progress
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
” in trade negotiations with Japan, officials there had a more measured assessment of the talks.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="color:#000;font:700 12px/15px arial,sans-serif;padding-bottom:2px;letter-spacing:.8px;margin:0">
DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U. S.? Or has it helped your business? Please
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
let us know what you’re doing
</a>
<span style="font-style:italic">
.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td height="30">
</td>
</tr>
<td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Elon Musk’s government-cutting team is working on “gold card” visas.
</span>
<span>
Engineers associated with the so-called Department of Government Efficiency are
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
working on the program
</a>
<span>
, which would grant permanent residency to those who bought visas for $5 million, The Times reports. Separately, Musk’s team is pushing to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
eliminate the I.R.S. tool
</a>
<span>
that allows Americans to file their federal taxes for free, according to The Associated Press.
</span>
</p>
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<div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Drug development is slowing amid cuts at the F.D.A.
</span>
<span>
Biotech companies are
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
delaying clinical trials
</a>
<span>
in the wake of broad layoffs at the agency, including in its divisions that advise on such testing, according to The Wall Street Journal. Cuts at federal health agencies aren’t letting up anytime soon: The Trump administration is seeking to reduce the Department of Health and Human Services’s discretionary spending
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
by about a third
</a>
<span>
, The Washington Post reports.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Mark Zuckerberg bemoans the dominance of TikTok.
</span>
<span>
Wrapping up his testimony in the F.T.C.’s antitrust case against Meta, the tech mogul said that the video app was
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
beating his company’s offerings
</a>
<span>
, including Instagram. (“TikTok is still bigger than either Facebook or Instagram, and I don’t like it when our competitors do better than us,” Zuckerberg said.) Sheryl Sandberg, Meta’s former president, also took the stand yesterday and defended blocking Google from advertising a rival social network on Facebook.
</span>
</p>
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</table>
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</td>
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<div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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<span style="text-align:center">
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</span>
</td>
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<tr>
<td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-bottom:1px solid #dcdcdc">
</td>
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<td style="text-align:center">
<img alt="A hand holds a smartphone open to the DeepSeek app." class="css-xsf469" height="375" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F04%252F15%252Fmultimedia%252Fbiz-16deepseek-washington-sub-kwqj%252Fbiz-16deepseek-washington-sub-kwqj-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NDQ4ODgzMTUuMDU5MjkzM30:1u5N9v:DNHIbVl_Rd1lTjB4Y2tTTPG3zkLTkAkHLrX9mMt0Hyw" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
</td>
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<td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
<span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
<span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
A House committee is investigating whether DeepSeek had illegal access to high-end chips from Nvidia.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
Kelsey McClellan for The New York Times
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Maybe DeepSeek didn’t do it on the cheap
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
When the Chinese company DeepSeek announced it had created a large language model for a bargain, the news sent tech stocks cratering and national security alarms blaring.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But its claim of working with severely limited resources is facing increasing scrutiny.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The latest:
</span>
<span>
Nvidia’s chief, Jensen Huang,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
is in China
</a>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
,
</span>
<span>
meeting with officials and others, The Times reports. His visit comes as the chip giant faces a congressional investigation
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
into its ties with DeepSeek
</a>
<span>
and costly new import restrictions from the Trump administration.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Tech stocks in particular took a beating yesterday, especially as chipmakers
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
found themselves in the middle
</a>
<span>
of the trade fight between Washington and Beijing.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Washington is watching closely.
</span>
<span>
A House committee
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
opened an investigation
</a>
<span>
yesterday into whether Nvidia knowingly provided DeepSeek with critical technology to develop A.I., potentially violating U.S. laws.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The impression was that since DeepSeek didn’t have access to the latest chip technology, it found a way around those limitations. The government is effectively questioning that claim.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Congress asked Nvidia to provide details about large customers from 11 Asian countries.
</span>
<span>
The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party also asked for details about the companies that were expected to use those chips.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
An Nvidia spokesman
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
told The Times
</a>
<span>
that the company followed the U.S. government’s directions on what products it could sell and where it could sell them “to the letter.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The committee suspects that DeepSeek somehow averted U.S. restrictions on sales of some chips to China.
</span>
<span>
It
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
previously
</a>
<span>
reported that Chinese companies may be purchasing critical chips for developing A.I. from other countries, citing a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Reuters article
</a>
<span>
that said Singapore had charged three men with fraud for selling Nvidia chips to DeepSeek.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
In other words, the company could have had many more Nvidia chips on hand than previously thought.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
DeepSeek may have also hacked OpenAI.
</span>
<span>
In the previous report, the House committee said that “it is highly likely” that DeepSeek used “distillation,” the common practice of using data from one A.I. system to build another one.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Taking data from proprietary technology could be illegal, and the committee cited a letter from OpenAI that said the company had “found that DeepSeek employees circumvented guardrails in OpenAI’s models” in order to harvest data. (OpenAI has recently
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
tightened access
</a>
<span>
to its most advanced models.)
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">
<img alt="The Harry Elkins Widener Memorial Library at Harvard, with banners featuring the university's motto, "Veritas." " class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F04%252F17%252Fmultimedia%252F17db-newsletter-harvard1-mgqb%252F17db-newsletter-harvard1-mgqb-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NDQ4ODgzMTUuMDU5NDMxOH0:1u5N9v:GFiYn3Pe-x4twyYTmkovMh6zAHGNXr_bLlNwm620GXk" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
<span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
<span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
Harvard could face a big financial hit if the I.R.S. revokes its tax-exempt status.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
Sophie Park for The New York Times
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
The costs of Harvard losing its tax-exempt status
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The Trump administration has escalated its war against Harvard, with the I.R.S. weighing whether to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
strip the university of its tax-exempt status
</a>
<span>
. That follows President Trump calling for such a move on social media.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
It would be the biggest blow yet to Harvard, which has
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
resisted acceding to demands
</a>
<span>
from Trump. Here’s what it might mean for the world’s wealthiest university.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Where things stand:
</span>
<span>
The administration has already frozen more than $2 billion in federal funds and contracts after Harvard rebuffed its demands. The latest attack came yesterday from the Department of Homeland Security, which canceled nearly $3 million in grants.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Things could get much worse.
</span>
<span>
Were Harvard to lose its tax status, it could owe not only federal income taxes, but it could owe taxes on its
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
real estate holdings
</a>
<span>
, which include properties in the Boston area, Washington and beyond. Perhaps more important, donations to the university would no longer be tax-deductible, which could put a serious dent in the gifts the school receives from its wealthiest alumni and supporters.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“Such an unprecedented action would endanger our ability to carry out our educational mission,” Harvard said in a statement. “The unlawful use of this instrument more broadly would have grave consequences for the future of higher education in America.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The Wall Street Journal notes that the administration has also discussed a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
35 percent tax
</a>
<span>
on large university endowments. That could potentially cost Harvard more than $1 billion annually were it to earn a 10 percent return on its $52 billion endowment.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Despite Harvard’s wealth, it doesn’t have unlimited funds.
</span>
<span>
The majority of its endowment is earmarked for specific purposes, meaning that it isn’t an A.T.M. That said, the school has moved to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
raise $1.2 billion so far this year
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
There’s a broader concern.
</span>
<span>
Federal law bars the president from either directly or indirectly asking the I.R.S. to audit specific targets. The prospect of a more politically driven tax regulator could weigh heavily not just on other higher education institutions, but on businesses more broadly.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
A White House spokesman said that the I.R.S.’s deliberations had begun before Trump’s social media post. Still,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
many legal experts said
</a>
<span>
that any effort to strip Harvard of its special tax status would take time, and the school could eventually appeal such a move all the way to the Supreme Court.
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
In other Trump attacks on institutions: The administration is weighing whether to press the law firms like Paul Weiss that settled with the president to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
work on a wider array of issues
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
than just charitable causes, The Times reports. That could include trade deals or even defending Trump in court.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">
<img alt="Wearing a dark jacket, an open collar and no tie, the Netflix co-C.E.O. Ted Sarandos stands in front of a sign for the premiere of “Stranger Things: The First Shadow” in London." class="css-xsf469" height="332" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F04%252F17%252Fmultimedia%252F17db-newsletter-qjhg%252F17db-newsletter-qjhg-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NDQ4ODgzMTUuMDU5NTYyfQ:1u5N9v:hv9YikXwXxrBnJlTppF89_a2wDr8mdY5eoNWzjnGDw8" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
<span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
<span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s co-C.E.O., is reportedly aiming for a $1 trillion valuation for the company.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
Isabel Infantes/Reuters
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Even Netflix isn’t trade-proof — for now
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Netflix is expected to post higher
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
quarterly earnings
</a>
<span>
and revenue today after the market close. But President Trump’s early rhetoric on trade and tariffs, which has led to boycotts of U.S. goods around the world, has already cut into the streaming giant’s business.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The drop in demand for Netflix across Europe “seems to reflect anti-American sentiment, Alejandro Rojas, an analyst with Parrot Analytics, told Edmund Lee.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“For instance, Denmark Q1 net adds estimates declined more than 80 percent after Trump’s comments about Greenland,” Rojas said. “Poland’s decline of 65 percent occurred right after the impasse with its prime minister. France’s net adds predictions were reduced by 26 percent the week the White House press secretary said that France should be thankful they’re not speaking German.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Netflix is already changing the narrative.
</span>
<span>
Company leaders internally announced a set of ambitious goals to double revenue by 2030 and become a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
$1 trillion company
</a>
<span>
by market value, according to The Wall Street Journal.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That’s not as outrageous as it sounds. Most of Netflix is international: It spends
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
more than half
</a>
<span>
its production budget developing shows and films overseas, and 73 percent of its
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
paid members
</a>
<span>
are outside the U.S.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
To meet the new revenue target, sales would need to grow at an annual rate of 12.7 percent, compared to the 11.5 percent anticipated by analysts, according to S&P Capital IQ. (The bigger swing is asking for a rosier price-to-sales multiple of 12.5 times from the current 7.6. If Netflix hits its targets, investors might give it that bump.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
But the company will stop revealing some key metrics.
</span>
<span>
Starting with this quarter’s earnings, Netflix no longer will provide subscriber figures. Instead, you’re likely to hear a lot about “paid sharing,” the company’s program to boost revenue by asking current customers to add other people to their account for an additional fee, which is part of its ongoing program to crack down on password sharing.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
And the anti-American sentiment may eventually wane.
</span>
<span>
“Netflix is definitely impacted by the tariffs right now,” Laurent Yoon, an analyst at Bernstein, told DealBook. “But longer term, I’m not sure it’ll be as much of a factor.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
In some of the top overseas markets like Britain, Germany, Italy and France, Netflix is the No. 1 platform, Yoon points out. (Amazon Prime is second; Disney Plus is third.) “If you hate America, what are you going to do?” he said. “Stare at the wall?”
</span>
</p>
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<tbody>
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<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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<span style="font-style:italic">
We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support.
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
THE SPEED READ
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Deals
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
OpenAI is reportedly in talks to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
buy the A.I.-assisted coding tool maker
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Windsurf for roughly $3 billion, which would be its biggest deal yet. (Bloomberg)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Private equity goes ‘risk off’
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
as it pauses dealmaking” (FT)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Politics, policy and regulation
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
A dozen House Republicans warned Speaker Mike Johnson that they
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
wouldn’t vote for a budget bill
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
that cuts Medicaid too deeply. (Axios)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“Trading in two stocks surged
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
before Trump family appointments announced
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
” (FT)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Billy Long, President Trump’s pick to lead the I.R.S., disclosed that a six-figure personal loan
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
was essentially paid off
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
by tax consulting firms or companies facing scrutiny from the agency. (The Lever)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Best of the rest
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
How an
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
options trader known as “Captain Condor”
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
amassed a social media following that can move markets. (WSJ)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Astronomers Detect a Signature of Life
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
on a Distant Planet” (NYT)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td height="10">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
</td>
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DealBook: Trump and investors vs. the Fed
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