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DealBook: Wall Street’s big pivot on interest rate cuts
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April 9, 2024
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Good morning. We’re covering the latest thinking on when the Fed will start cutting rates; digging into Blackstone’s real estate deal making; talking to Paramount shareholders about its tentative deal with Skydance; and going through the business of eclipse watching. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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Wall Street is viewing tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index report as a pivotal one that could determine the Fed’s next move on interest rates.
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What next on inflation and rate cuts?
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The mood music on rate cuts has changed again. Inflation hasn’t fallen as quickly as expected and the economy is performing strongly. All eyes now are focused on the Consumer Price Index data due tomorrow for clues on when the Fed might finally start cutting interest rates.
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Friday’s
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blowout jobs numbers have shifted sentiment.
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Economists this morning are forecasting higher growth but also
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higher-for-longer inflation and rates
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. Traders are penciling in fewer than three cuts this year —
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lower
</span>
<span>
than the Fed’s own projection — with the first coming not before July.
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That’s a stark change from the start of the year, when Wall Street figured that a slowing economy and cooling labor market would force the Fed to cut rates as many as six times in 2024.
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The uncertainty has hit the markets.
</span>
<span>
After climbing more than 10 percent in the first quarter, the S&P 500 is down roughly 1 percent this quarter. Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, briefly
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
spooked the markets
</a>
<span>
last week when he suggested that persistently high inflation could mean the central bank wouldn’t cut rates this year.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Tomorrow’s inflation report could be pivotal.
</span>
<span>
Economists forecast that overall inflation will tick up on the back of rising energy prices. But they expect that core C.P.I., which strips out the volatile fuel and food price fluctuations, could cool to 3.7 percent, from 3.8 percent.
</span>
</p>
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The focus will be on so-called services inflation
</span>
<span>
. This takes into account a range of expenditures from airfare to rent and auto insurance, and has been running hot since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. Car insurance has risen for 27 consecutive months on an annualized basis, notes Michael Reid, an economist at RBC Capital Markets.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“The risk remains that if the progress in services continues to stall, then the path of Fed cuts may be even shallower than expected,” Reid wrote in an investor note yesterday.
</span>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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A potential positive sign:
</span>
<span>
The New York Fed’s monthly inflation
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
survey
</a>
<span>
yesterday showed that respondents think inflation will rise by about 3 percent during the next year. That’s still above the Fed’s 2 percent target, but it would be below the projections for tomorrow’s C.P.I. data.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Some prominent Wall Street voices see a bumpy path ahead.
</span>
<span>
Jamie Dimon, the C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
issued a fresh warning
</a>
<span>
that a soft landing was no certainty and that inflation could remain higher for a lot longer. Dimon
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
said
</a>
<span>
the bank’s worst-case scenario had interest rates climbing to 8 percent, “or even higher.”
</span>
</p>
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Elon Musk predicts A.I. will overtake human intelligence within two years.
</span>
<span>
Musk told Nicolai Tangen, C.E.O. of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, in an
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
interview on X
</a>
<span>
that artificial general intelligence would probably be “smarter than the smartest human” next year or by 2026. The forecast is earlier than many others in the tech industry believe: Some say it will take years for that level of technology to reach the market. Elsewhere, Musk’s Tesla has
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
settled a lawsuit
</a>
<span>
over a fatal crash involving a driver using the car’s driver-assistance software.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Donald Trump’s efforts to delay his criminal hush-money trial are foiled.
</span>
<span>
An appeals judge
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
dismissed
</a>
<span>
the former president’s request to have the case, related to charges that he falsified records to cover up a sex scandal, delayed and moved out of New York. Trump also said he planned to sue the judge overseeing the case, which is probably the only one of the four criminal matters he’s facing that will go to court this year.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
President Biden unveils a big student-loan debt relief program.
</span>
<span>
Some 10 million borrowers would see debt relief of $5,000 or more, he
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
announced
</a>
<span>
in Wisconsin, a key battleground state. Republicans have opposed the White House efforts to wipe out billions in payments owed by graduates, accusing Biden of overstepping his authority and adding to the swelling national debt.
</span>
</p>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Blackstone bets that real estate has bottomed out
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Blackstone has doubled down on the volatile real estate market, agreeing to buy the luxury apartment group Apartment Income REIT for about $10 billion to take the company private.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The private equity giant said at the start of the year that it saw opportunities for deals in a market hobbled by high interest rates and last year’s regional banking crisis.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Commercial real estate has been mired in its worst downturn since the 2008 crisis.
</span>
<span>
Office vacancies are soaring, as employers look to renegotiate leases amid a rise in hybrid work and high interest rates that are slamming property values. Investors bought
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
$360 billion of U.S. commercial property
</a>
<span>
in the 12 months ending in February, about half the volume of deals compared to the previous 12-month period, according to MSCI Real Assets.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Blackstone thinks a property rebound is in the cards. “
</span>
<span>
We can see the pillars of a real-estate recovery coming into place,” Jon Gray, the company’s president, said on an earnings call this year. The firm thinks
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
uncertainty about the economy and the timing of Fed rate cuts
</a>
<span>
creates a buying opportunity. “We want to be aggressive,” Gray told The Financial Times in January.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Blackstone sees growth in big cities.
</span>
<span>
Apartment Income REIT, also known as AIR Communities, owns 76 high-end rental communities in cities including Miami, Los Angeles, Washington and Boston. Shares in AIR jumped almost 20 percent yesterday.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
In January, Blackstone paid $3.5 billion to buy
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Tricon Residential
</a>
<span>
, a Canadian real estate company, and it took a stake in Signature Bank’s $17 billion real-estate loan book last year. In December, it teamed up with Digital Realty to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
build data centers
</a>
<span>
through a new $7 billion venture.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Blackstone may be betting that rate cuts will help it.
</span>
<span>
But that’s a gamble — and not just because the rates outlook has grown cloudy in recent weeks. Some analysts point out that previous deals came when the economy was more stable but some say that Gray, who used to run Blackstone’s global property investing business, may have the skills to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
ride that wave
</a>
<span>
of uncertainty.
</span>
</p>
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</td>
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</td>
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<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Paramount’s battle to win over shareholders
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
As more details emerge about a deal to combine Skydance and Paramount, some shareholders are going public with their opposition, write The Times’ Ben Mullin and DealBook’s Lauren Hirsch.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Paramount’s shares have tumbled since exclusive talks began last week.
</span>
<span>
The stock closed down 8 percent yesterday and has lost about half its value in the past year. David Ellison’s Skydance has tentatively agreed to buy Shari Redstone’s National Amusements, the holding company that controls the group via a supervoting class of stock. Paramount would then merge with Skydance in a deal valued at
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
about $5 billion
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
A special panel of independent board members is negotiating with Skydance despite other interest.
</span>
<span>
Apollo Global Management, the investment giant, was willing to pay $26 billion for the whole group, but Paramount ignored the approach because of concerns about its financing. That raised questions about whether the Skydance proposal might be good for Redstone but
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
less good for other investors
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Opposition appears to be growing.
</span>
<span>
“We’ll aggressively defend our rights if they take us down this path,” Justin Evans, the managing member of Blackwood Capital Management, told DealBook, threatening litigation. “It’s a toxic, unfair deal for shareholders.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The comments came after Matrix Asset Advisors, another investor, sent a blistering letter to Paramount’s board yesterday slamming the Skydance bid. “As reported, this deal focuses on monetizing Shari Redstone’s shareholding for cash at a significant premium,” wrote David Katz, Matrix’s chief investment officer. “The vast majority of shareholders would not receive a similar premium and would be forced to finance a speculative investment in Skydance in a transaction significantly dilutive to shareholder value.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Both shareholders hold relatively small stakes but they hint at growing concerns about the deal.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Questions about Skydance are another worry.
</span>
<span>
Skydance and Paramount would split ownership of the new company. But because the company is private, Paramount shareholders have no easy way to assess the value of a business in which they may soon be an investor.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Katz urged Paramount to take 30 days to do due diligence and confirm financing on Apollo’s offer, just as Paramount has done for Skydance.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Paramount and National Amusements declined to comment for DealBook.
</span>
</p>
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</td>
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<tbody>
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<img alt="A couple wearing protective eyewear look skyward while holding their dog, which is also wearing glasses." class="css-19kyn6d" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2024%252F04%252F09%252Fmultimedia%252F09db-eclipse-qhwv%252F09db-eclipse-qhwv-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3MTI2NjM5MTYuNTUyNzUwM30:1ruA7Y:-mzpoGegr8zKsjc4hjg5cwbY0yHTDYwZC774NhzCSDs" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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<td align="center" style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px" width="100%">
<span class="css-14c9rv6" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
<span class="css-9ddn05" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
Eclipse mania overtook parts of the U.S. with viewing parties held across a long swath of the country.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
Alex Kent for The New York Times
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
The eclipse economy: by the numbers
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Eclipse mania has swept across North America, leaving people across the continent in awe at the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
celestial event
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The next time the sun, moon and Earth are scheduled to line up in a row across the region
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
will be in 2044
</a>
<span>
. For now, DealBook is looking at the economic impact of yesterday’s total solar eclipse.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The rarity was expected to be a boon for businesses in the eclipse’s totality path.
</span>
<span>
Estimates of the economic lift range from
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
$1 billion
</a>
<span>
to $6 billion. Hotel bookings and Airbnb rentals sold out
</span>
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long in advance
</a>
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. And eclipse parties were all the rage, from Austin, Texas, to Rockefeller Center in New York.
</span>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That said, a solar eclipse in 2017 was estimated to
</span>
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cost nearly $700 million
</a>
<span>
in lost productivity, as workers left their desks en masse to gaze skyward.
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The hit to the power grid yesterday was minimal.
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The U.S. has become more reliant on solar power, which accounted for nearly 6 percent of electricity last year. But utilities
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made adjustments
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well in advance to make sure customers were unaffected.
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There was a run on protective eyewear in many places.
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ISO-certified glasses — Warby Parker gave them away for free while Target sold pairs for $13.99 —
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sold out in many locations
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.
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One problem: There were reports of
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recalls
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and
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scam warnings
</a>
<span>
associated with some vendors. And looking directly at the eclipse could damage one’s eyesight, which may explain an apparent uptick in people Googling, “
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my eyes hurt
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.”
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<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
One 1980s rocker wasn’t hurting.
</span>
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Spotify reported that searches for Bonnie Tyler’s 1983 chart-topper, “Total Eclipse of the Heart,”
</span>
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surged
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THE SPEED READ
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Deals
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</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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<tbody>
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Blackstone is reportedly
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
near a deal
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to buy L’Occitane and take the skin care company private. (Bloomberg)
</span>
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The deals mania that is shaking up professional sports leagues around the world is
</span>
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expected to accelerate
</a>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
with a flood of investments into smaller teams, researchers say. (MarketWatch)
</span>
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Policy
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“
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<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Biden Is Spending $1 Trillion to Fight Climate Change.
</a>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Voters Don’t Care.” (WSJ)
</span>
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<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Vows by banks to commit trillions to reducing emissions
</span>
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are not working
</a>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
, researchers say. (NYT)
</span>
</li>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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Best of the rest
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“
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Google to Tone Down Message Board
</a>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
After Employees Feud Over War in Gaza” (NYT)
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<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
Inside the black market
</a>
<span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
that helps America’s foes get their hands on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite-internet devices. (WSJ)
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1 month, 1 week ago - nytdirect@nytimes.com
DealBook: Wall Street’s big pivot on interest rate cuts
Also, why Blackstone is doubling down on real estate.View in browser|nytimes.comContinue reading ...