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   DealBook: Profits of doom
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   Also, growing opposition to the G.O.P.’s “revenge tax.”
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             June 17, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. Does it ever surprise you that the stock market doesn’t nosedive when we hear about reports of war? It often falls and quickly recovers, long before the outcome is clear. We go deep on this topic this morning as we consider how to price the potential of all-out war. I know, I know — it is not exactly the happiest of topics to start the day.
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          We also have a fascinating look at a unique and little-known realm of corporate governance: proxy fights in which the fighters knows they’re going to lose — and in fact, winning the vote isn’t their goal. And check out the responses to my question yesterday about how the Trump administration may try to prevent ad agencies from boycotting certain websites over political speech.
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            <img alt="A large dark cloud of billowing smoke is seen rising above the Tehran cityscape." class="css-3vswge" height="400" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F06%252F17%252Fmultimedia%252F17db-iran-jwpf%252F17db-iran-jwpf-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTAxNjE5NTkuODY4OTM5Nn0:1uRV4h:17MHZB1fXa3CcAP_6k7ymBfgGl8mZVLA_3WHe5Na6VM" style="width:100%;height:auto;display:block;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:8px" width="600"/>
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             There’s no letup in sight to the conflict between Israel and Iran.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
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          Shrugging off geopolitical risk
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          Israel and Iran continue to exchange heavy fire for a fifth straight day, dismaying those hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough.
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          President Trump abruptly departed the Group of 7 summit in Canada, and said he was looking for something “better than a cease-fire” between Israel and Iran. Earlier, he had said that “
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          everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran
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          !” His comments added to his mixed messages on the conflict.
         </span>
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          But investors are taking the geopolitical uncertainty — including turbulence in a
         </span>
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          key shipping route
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          — in stride.
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          The latest:
         </span>
         <span>
          Global markets have dipped after yesterday’s rebound, but still trade a few ticks off recent peaks. S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq futures are pointing to a lower open. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, remains steady above $74 a barrel, well off last week’s highs.
         </span>
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          Markets are settling into a familiar pattern:
         </span>
         <span>
          Stocks tumble when geopolitical crises erupt — and then rebound as investors’ appetite for risk returns.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          This happened in April 2024, when Israel and Iran
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          last traded strikes
         </a>
         <span>
          and set off fears of wider regional conflict. At the time, the S&amp;P 500 fell by as much as 3.1 percent over five trading sessions, according to data from LPL Research, a market analytics firm.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Fourteen trading sessions later, the benchmark index fully recovered. The S&amp;P 500 later set record after record.
         </span>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          That was no anomaly.
         </span>
         <span>
          LPL Financial
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          analyzed 25 major geopolitical episodes
         </a>
         <span>
          , dating back to Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor. “Total drawdowns around these events have been fairly limited,” Jeff Buchbinder, LPL’s chief equity strategist, wrote in a research note yesterday. (Full recoveries often “take only a few weeks to a couple of months,” he added.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Deutsche Bank analysts drew a similar conclusion: “Geopolitics doesn’t normally matter much for long-run market performance,” Henry Allen, a markets strategist, wrote in a note yesterday.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Investors appear to be betting that the latest barrages won’t disrupt global energy markets.
         </span>
         <span>
          The
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          worst-case scenario
         </a>
         <span>
          is that Israel would inflict significant damage on the energy infrastructure of Iran, a major oil exporter. Tehran would retaliate by effectively cutting off tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for the world’s crude shipments.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          So far, there’s no sign of that.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td height="30">
           </td>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Meta will soon introduce ads to WhatsApp.
         </span>
         <span>
          The popular messaging app will start
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          showing promotions in user updates
         </a>
         <span>
          , an area used by around 1.5 billion people a day. The move is a long-awaited change for WhatsApp, which had been one of the few ad-free channels in Meta’s empire. But turning messaging apps into a showcase for advertisers has been historically difficult for tech companies, analysts note.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td height="10">
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr aria-hidden="true">
           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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           <td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-bottom:1px solid #dcdcdc">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          OpenAI reportedly weighs a sharper attack on Microsoft.
         </span>
         <span>
          The artificial intelligence start-up is considering whether to accuse Microsoft, one of its biggest backers,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          of anticompetitive behavior
         </a>
         <span>
          as the two negotiate over OpenAI’s efforts to convert itself into a for-profit company, according to The Wall Street Journal. While both companies played down the report, the tensions raise questions about the future of one of the tech world’s most consequential alliances.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Airbus pulls further ahead of Boeing.
         </span>
         <span>
          On Day 1 of the Paris Air Show, the European plane maker announced close to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          $10 billion worth of new orders
         </a>
         <span>
          while its struggling rival was a no-show after the Air India crash last week involving a 787-8 Dreamliner.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td height="20">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The effort to kill the “revenge tax”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Republican lawmakers’ giant domestic policy legislation has drawn criticism from all corners, including about how much it would add to the national debt or how deeply it could cut Medicaid. But for many in the business community, one provision is especially abhorrent.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Known as Section 899 — and
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          informally as the “revenge tax”
         </a>
         <span>
          — critics say the measure, aimed at companies or individuals whose countries will try to collect new taxes on American tech companies, would chill foreign investment in the U.S.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The TL;DR:
         </span>
         <span>
          Section 899 seeks to punish “discriminatory foreign countries” that either stick to the terms of a 2021 global minimum tax agreement, which
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the Biden administration agreed to
         </a>
         <span>
          , or seek to impose digital services taxes on tech giants.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But there are two different versions of the proposal: The House’s bill would quickly impose the new tax, which would top out at 20 percentage points, while the Senate’s would delay enforcement until 2027 and be capped at 15 percentage points.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Congressional estimates suggest that Section 899 would generate more than $100 billion in revenue over a decade, and proponents say it would deter countries from unfairly punishing American businesses.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Critics say the proposal would deter people from investing in the U.S.,
         </span>
         <span>
          particularly at a time when investors have been edging away from American assets amid President Trump’s trade war. The Global Business Alliance, an international lobby group, estimated that it could cost the country 700,000 jobs over time and reduce G.D.P. by $100 billion annually.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “Trump wants onshoring, and now if we’re going to penalize people who are doing the onshoring or the foreign direct investment in the U.S., it’s counter to his goal,” Don Schneider, deputy head of U.S. policy at Piper Sandler, told The Times.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Wall Street is pressing
         </a>
         <span>
          lawmakers to exempt passive investment income, including dividends, rent and royalties, from Section 899. (Interest on Treasury securities is already excluded.)
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Is time running out for Section 899 opponents?
         </span>
         <span>
          The Senate’s bill watered down the House version’s provisions, but didn’t kill the tax altogether.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The question is whether the measure can survive
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          upcoming negotiations
         </a>
         <span>
          between the two chambers to reconcile their versions of the policy legislation — giving the business lobby a window to fight back.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Clipping the wings of proxy activists
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          At Merck’s annual shareholder meeting in May, the National Legal and Policy Center, a conservative research organization, proposed ending diversity programs. The measure garnered just 1 percent of the vote, but the center gained plenty of attention for its proposal, including stage time at the event, and forced Merck’s C.E.O. to publicly defend the company’s programs.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          These investor proposals are, in truth, publicity campaigns meant to drum up media attention and attract new benefactors. But the proxy strategy may be getting harder, thanks to a change in S.E.C. rules, Vivienne Walt reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Proxy votes are becoming a favorite tool for opponents of E.S.G. and D.E.I.
         </span>
         <span>
          While most shareholder resolutions still come from groups in favor of environmental, social and governance or diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, proposals opposing those goals have grown significantly since 2021, according to a study published by the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Harvard Law School
         </a>
         <span>
          in April.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          From January to April, 43 resolutions were filed at annual general meetings demanding an end to diversity and equity initiatives,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          according to Minerva Analytics
         </a>
         <span>
          , a research group that tracks proxy resolutions.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          They include a range of proposals
         </a>
         <span>
          , like demands at Alphabet’s and Best Buy’s annual shareholder meetings to halt support for gay rights groups.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          About 60 percent of anti-E.S.G. proxy resolutions have been filed by just two conservative Washington area nonprofit groups, the N.L.P.C. and the National Center for Public Policy Research.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Anti-D.E.I. proposals on average win just 2 percent of shareholder votes,
         </span>
         <span>
          according to the Harvard study. But they tend to get lots of buzz.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “They want the proposals on the ballot, because they want the media attention,” Ariane Marchis-Mouren, a senior researcher at the Conference Board, said of the conservative activists. “From what I’ve heard from companies, their end goal is that they will not withdraw.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The proposals also ratcheted up pressure on boards, even if they don’t succeed: “Their practical effect is to curtail or eliminate D.E.I. initiatives,” the Harvard report read.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          New S.E.C. rules intended to hamstring liberal causes have also hit President Trump’s base
         </span>
         <span>
          . Signed in February, they
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          permit companies to
         </a>
         <span>
          exclude proposals that are not core to their business, reversing a Biden-era policy widening the range of allowed topics.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The change has snuffed out conservative activist resolutions before annual meetings are held. About 100 such proposals were filed in this year’s proxy season, which winds down in late June — while about 173 others have been struck from agendas, according to the Conference Board.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Still, the new rules may not deter conservative activists’ campaigns. “Conservatives are the insurgents now,” Jerry Bowyer, the C.E.O. of Bowyer Research,
         </span>
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
         </span>
         <span>
          told DealBook. His company issues guidance on proxy resolutions for about 2,000 annual shareholder meetings a year. “They see shareholder proposals as a nuisance,” he said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “Good luck getting a federal agency to hold the company accountable if service fails or things go off the rails.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          — Robert Weissman, co-president of Public Citizen, a nonprofit watchdog group, on the newly announced
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          Trump-branded smartphone
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          and cellular service plan. Experts questioned the Trump family’s claim that the device could be
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          made in the U.S.
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          , while others said it posed another conflict of interest for the administration.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Your thoughts on an unusual merger condition
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Yesterday, Andrew
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          asked you to weigh in
         </a>
         <span>
          on a requirement that the U.S. government
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          may impose on the proposed merger
         </a>
         <span>
          of the ad giants Interpublic and Omnicom: that the resulting company pledge not to engage in political boycotting of any particular platforms when it considers buying ad space for clients.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Consider if an agency genuinely believes that appearing on a platform would damage a client’s brand, Andrew posited: “This new provision, depending on how it’s interpreted, could make it near impossible for an agency to live up to that professional obligation. If you were this firm’s client, would you remain one?”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Here’s what you said. (The responses have been edited and condensed.):
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “Doesn’t freedom of speech include the right to not speak? Also, how would such a provision, if made law, even be enforced?”
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-style:italic">
                — Mark Brandus, former marketing manager in Georgia
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “Consider what’s happened to Tesla. Elon Musk offended, probably irreparably, Tesla’s target market and demographic. If we were to adopt the act’s requirements, advertisers would face a similar situation.” —
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-style:italic">
                Jeff Bennett, former automobile dealership owner in Michigan
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                “The client may be mad that his agency won’t place an ad on a specific website, but at that scale, he/she will have a hard time finding another agency to do it. They move like herds.”
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-style:italic">
                — Grant Castle, retired from the advertising industry in Maine
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
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           </td>
          </tr>
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            <span>
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                via a reverse merger. (WSJ)
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                , the big hedge fund founded by Izzy Englander, is said to be in talks to sell stake in itself at a $14 billion valuation. (FT)
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                . (WaPo)
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