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Ironically, reciprocal tariffs could cost the US |
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👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
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The US president is set to unleash a broad wave of reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd – but what follows from his so-called Liberation Day could backfire and tie down the US of A, instead.
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🔍 The focus this week: You get a tax, you get a tax, everyone gets a tax
</p>
<p data-block-key="5qt6r" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
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<b>
✅ Reciprocal tariffs may be a triple threat, at least according to the US president.
</b>
They could incentivize foreign producers (or US companies working abroad) to build facilities stateside and hire American workers, pressure trading partners to lower their own barriers, and – perhaps unofficially – generate revenue to help pay for tax cuts.
</p>
<p data-block-key="23mj7" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
✍️ The exact details are still being finalized, but in essence, new import taxes will be tailored to each of America’s trading partners.
</b>
As well as matching other countries’ tariffs on US goods, they’ll be designed to counter other practices seen as disadvantaging American manufacturers – including unfair subsidies, strict regulations, value-added taxes (VATs), managed exchange rates, and weak intellectual property protections.
</p>
<p data-block-key="9lopl" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
🧠 Problem is, these so-called “non-tariff barriers” are hard to quantify.
</b>
That’s creating an enormous challenge for the Office of the US Trade Representative and the Commerce Department, tasked with proposing bespoke levies for each country. If history’s any guide, the president will likely announce rough measures first, then negotiate and refine the details later.
</p>
<p data-block-key="5u1v" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
<b>
🌍 Emerging markets would be hit the hardest by the US matching existing tariffs.
</b>
India, Argentina, and much of Africa and Southeast Asia would be most exposed, according to Bloomberg Economics. However, it’s clear that non-tariff measures are designed to target the eurozone – with its strict regulations and VAT – and China – with its heavy subsidies to domestic industries and weak intellectual property protections.
</p>
<p data-block-key="17bmd" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
<b>
📉 All the uncertainty has shaken financial markets, prompted economists to cut their US growth forecasts, and forced the Federal Reserve to consider the potential inflationary impact of higher import costs.
</b>
The real test of the president’s strategy will be whether escalating tariffs reshape global trade in America’s favor – or spark a backlash that does more harm than good.
</p>
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<b>
You’re a savvy investor, so your pension fund could benefit from your know-how
</b>
</h4>
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You know your stuff: no one needs to explain terms like asset allocation or positive alpha to you.
<br/>
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Chances are, if you’re comfortable with investing, you’d like some more control over your pension fund.
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You, then, might like a
<a style="color: #204CE9; font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
self-invested personal pension (SIPP)
</a>
. You can use them to save for retirement on your terms by picking your own investments. But while you don’t need help picking assets, you might want assistance
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choosing a SIPP
</a>
.
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After all, your
<a style="color: #204CE9; font-weight: 500; text-decoration: underline;">
choice of provider
</a>
can dictate the success of your savings – particularly when it comes to minimizing the long-term impact of platform and trading fees.
<br/>
</p>
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Kepler Trust Intelligence has
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ranked the best SIPP providers
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, including options known for their low cost, wide array of investment options, or standout customer service.
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Plus, Kepler covered FAQs so you can find out more about
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how SIPPs work
</a>
– think fee structures, investment opportunities, access rules, and the steps to take when you retire. It’s all
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right here
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.
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📅 On the calendar
</p>
<ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
<li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Monday:
</b>
China PMIs (March).
</li>
<li data-block-key="7t987" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Tuesday:
</b>
Japan unemployment rate (February), eurozone inflation (March), eurozone unemployment rate (March), US job openings and labor turnover survey (February), US manufacturing PMI (March).
</li>
<li data-block-key="ag3b2" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Wednesday:
</b>
US factory orders (February).
</li>
<li data-block-key="dg3ju" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
<b>
Thursday:
</b>
Minutes of the European Central Bank’s latest meeting, US trade balance (February), US non-manufacturing PMI (March).
</li>
<li data-block-key="fvjtf" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
<b>
Friday:
</b>
Japan household spending (February), US labor market report (March).
</li>
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👀 What you might’ve missed last week
</p>
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<b>
🌎 Global
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The OECD’s 38 member nations spent an average of 3.3% of the size of their economies on interest payments last year, the highest level since 2007. That’s down to a combination of rising borrowing costs and ballooning debt levels. And if that one-two punch sticks, governments could find it harder to borrow money – at a time when their investment needs are greater than ever, according to the OECD.
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🇺🇸 US
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As well as reciprocal tariffs, the US president announced 25% levies on foreign-made cars – and that’s on top of existing import taxes. From April 3rd, they’ll apply to fully assembled vehicles. But by May 3rd, they’ll be stamped on major automobile parts, too. The administration hopes to bring in roughly $100 billion a year in new revenue from these fees, and they could encourage automakers to shift production to the US as well. But that could come at a price (ironically): industry experts say the tariffs will disrupt global supply chains and make vehicles more expensive for already squeezed shoppers.
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Institutional investors have sold their US stocks at a record pace. No wonder: they’re wary of the risk of a global trade war, the touted end of “American exceptionalism”, and possible stagflation (when runaway inflation meets slow economic growth). And while you’d expect retail investors to take the same cues, data out last week showed that they’ve poured $67 billion more into US stocks and ETFs than they’ve taken out this year.
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🇪🇺 Europe
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Consumer prices in the UK increased by 2.8% in February from a year ago, down from 3% in January and defying economist forecasts for an unchanged reading. But keep the prosecco on ice: the Bank of England expects the slowdown to be short-lived, forecasting inflation to climb toward 4% later this year. That would be double its target, spurred on by higher energy prices. Even so, traders held firm in their bets that the central bank will cut interest rates again in May.
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2 weeks, 6 days ago - hello@finimize.com
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