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   DealBook: A spending bill Wall Street doesn’t hate
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             August 17, 2022
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              Good morning. Elon Musk took Manchester United investors on a wild ride after tweeting that he would buy the club. Spoiler:
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              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               He was joking
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              . In more substantial news, Target posted another
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              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               profit miss
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              this morning, and the markets are awaiting
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               retail sales data
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              and the release of the
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               Fed July meeting
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              minutes. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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               Sign up here.
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              )
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                  Also part of the deal: free pens.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             The Inflation Reduction Act doesn’t faze investors
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Yesterday, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, a sweeping
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              climate and health care law
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             that is the type of tax-and-spend legislation Wall Street usually loathes. Some of the bill’s details:
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               The act, despite its name, is unlikely to lower prices, except for some medications, and may spur inflation for a year or two.
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               It increases corporate taxes when bottom-line growth is already slowing.
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               According to academics at the Wharton Business School, it may reduce economic growth over the next decade — or at least until its big investment in green energy pays off, if it ever does.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Still, Wall Street seems to like the Inflation Reduction Act, or at least not hate it.
             </span>
             The market has climbed nearly 10 percent since news of a deal between Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, which let the legislation pass.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              That’s because there are plenty of positives, analysts say.
             </span>
             The legislation is expected to provide a big lift to the green energy sector. At the same time, analysts who follow pharmaceutical companies say the act’s drug price controls are not as strict as the industry feared, and unlikely to significantly dent profits. The same goes for the 1 percent tax on stock buybacks. Democrats hope the measure will encourage executives to spend more on workers and long-term investments, though financial analysts are skeptical,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              reports The Times’s Joe Rennison
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             . “We don’t think it will make a large difference,” said Ben Snider, an equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.
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             ADVERTISEMENT
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The act comes as Wall Street’s worries about inflation are easing
             </span>
             , and concerns about a recession are growing.
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             </span>
             The key measure of inflation remained unchanged last month, after months of increases. Other things have helped the stock market as well. Gas prices, key to inflation, are well off their highs. The Federal Reserve has indicated that it is likely to slow its interest rate increases. “The premise of the market’s recent rise is that we are moving to a new easing cycle,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. And Paulsen says the spending side of the Inflation Reduction Act is signaling to investors that Washington may soon once again be ready to stimulate the economy if needed.
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              But the reaction could just be another signal that investors are too optimistic about stocks.
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             There are certainly signs of froth in the market. In what seems like a repeat of last year’s meme stock rally, shares of Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, for instance, jumped nearly 95 percent in the past week.
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Liz Cheney concedes defeat.
             </span>
             As expected, Cheney lost the Republican primary for her congressional seat in Wyoming
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              by a landslide
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             , as conservative voters punished her for voting to impeach Donald Trump, and for jointly leading the Jan. 6 committee. Harriet Hageman, who had Trump’s endorsement, won the nomination. Elsewhere at the polls, Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, a centrist Republican who also voted for impeachment,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              narrowly survived a primary battle
             </a>
             .
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Germany will keep nuclear power a little longer.
             </span>
             Facing a historic energy crisis, it will run its remaining three
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              nuclear plants
             </a>
             through the winter, pausing a long-term national policy to phase them out. The reversal comes as the German energy regulator warned that the country may
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              not have enough fuel stored
             </a>
             for winter should Russia, its main natural gas supplier, completely shut off supplies.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Inflation hits a 40-year high in Britain.
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             Consumer prices soared by a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              worse-than-expected 10.1 percent
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             year on year in July as food and energy prices showed no sign of cooling. The report prompted a steep sell-off in short-term government bonds as investors braced for sharper interest rate rises. Bank of England economists
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              predict inflation of over 13 percent
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             this fall.
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              The Biden administration wipes out billions in student loan debt.
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             The Education Department
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              agreed to waive
             </a>
             $4 billion owed by some 208,000 students who attended the bankrupt ITT Technical Institute schools, and forgave another $24 million for DeVry University students. Biden still hasn’t decided whether to extend a pause on federal student loan obligations, which would otherwise resume next month.
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             Anti-E.S.G. measures fail to get traction
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             As primaries for a bitter midterm election begin, the political fight
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              over environmental, social and governance investing
             </a>
             continues in corporate America. And while several high-profile politicians have condemned the E.S.G. approach — including the potential 2024 presidential candidates Mike Pence and Gov. Ron DeSantis — its opponents are making little headway in the boardroom.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The 43 anti-E.S.G. shareholder proposals tracked by Morningstar in the first half of the year received on average only 7 percent support
             </span>
             , compared with more than 30 percent across all proposals,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a report found
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             . The large money managers such as BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street have publicly committed to various E.S.G. efforts. While BlackRock
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              said it would back fewer climate proposals this year
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             , it would be harder for it to justify voting for blanket bans on E.S.G. initiatives.
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              Only a dozen anti-E.S.G. proposals got more than 5 percent support.
             </span>
             Those that succeeded were focused on seemingly less partisan issues, like disclosure on lobbying activity at companies including McDonald’s and Twitter. Some, like a resolution requesting disclosure on child labor in the electric vehicle battery supply chain at General Motors, became more obviously political after the vote, Morningstar notes. At the General Motors annual meeting, the National Legal and Policy Center,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              which presented the resolution
             </a>
             , attacked “renewed fanaticism for electric vehicles from corporate management, the corporate media and the failed Biden administration.”
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              But E.S.G. investing continues to draw scrutiny.
             </span>
             Comments
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              are piling up
             </a>
             against the S.E.C.’s proposals to enhance disclosure for E.S.G. funds. The
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              National Federation of Independent Businesses
             </a>
             calls the proposed rule “an unnecessary burden.”
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              The Committee on Capital Markets Regulation
             </a>
             expressed concerns aspects of the proposal could actually increase “greenwashing” — such as the absence of a definition for E.S.G. The S.E.C.
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              held meetings about the rule earlier this month
             </a>
             with a number of investment professionals
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              ,
             </a>
             from firms including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and T. Rowe Price.
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                <img class="css-1rg59gv e1e3sevz0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2021%252F02%252F18%252Fbusiness%252Fdealbook-icon-road-down%252Fdealbook-icon-road-down-articleLarge-v5.gif/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1oOIAv:xVygQ3jTqpZ2d-mO3DVdXEdjBtA2t72ajOvZByTD8HU" style="display:block;width:100%;height:auto;padding-bottom:25px;padding-top:10px"/>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             The Taliban’s central bankers
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             A year ago this week, the Taliban took over Afghanistan, creating
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a novel fox-in-the-henhouse problem
             </a>
             for global financial regulators. A designated terrorist organization had claimed control of a central bank.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The U.S. responded by freezing Afghanistan’s foreign exchange reserves in New York — $7 billion worth. President Biden set aside half of that for relatives of Sept. 11 victims to pursue in the courts. The other $3.5 billion is supposed to support Afghan needs, but the U.S. said on Monday that it
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              would not release the funds
             </a>
             anytime soon, despite criticism from
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              economists
             </a>
             and humanitarian groups.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              “The global architecture against financial crimes is designed to exclude and go after groups like the Taliban,”
             </span>
             said Alex Zerden, formerly of the Treasury’s Office of International Affairs, and an expert witness for some 9/11 victims. So the system was ill equipped to manage the “perverse” turn of events in Kabul, he added.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The U.N. began flying cash into Afghanistan this year.
             </span>
             About $760 million has come from the international community, according to the Afghan central bank, which says it uses the money to support the local currency, the afghani. John Sopko, the U.S. special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, is concerned about funds reaching the Taliban, but acknowledged that the economic situation was treacherous and humanitarian aid has been insufficient.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The urgency of the crisis “is undeniable,”
             </span>
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              wrote William Byrd
             </a>
             , an economist and expert on Afghanistan at the U.S. Institute of Peace, a congressionally created research body. Byrd believes the U.S. “should urgently prioritize” moving Afghan money to a trust account abroad and setting up an alternate system. “The Taliban need not and should not be involved at all in this process,” he argued. “With credible oversight, limited amounts of the money could be deployed in appropriate ways that begin to build confidence in the Afghan economy and banking system.”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Still, any efforts to prop up the Afghan economy and people could indirectly aid the Taliban. When terrorists become central bankers, there are only so many options.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “We tell buyers, ‘Your buddy has 8,000 acres so we know you can’t buy less than that.’ It’s a funny joke but it does seem to work.”
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Greg Fay of the Fay Ranches brokerage in Montana. The super-rich are fueling a
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               boom in the luxury ranch market
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              .
             </span>
            </p>
           </td>
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        </table>
       </div>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Mexico loves fossil fuels
            </h2>
           </td>
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        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             As the U.S. and countries in Europe scramble to reduce carbon output while dealing with the energy crisis brought on by Russia’s war, Mexico is staking its future on fossil fuels.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “We ignored the sirens’ song, the voices that predicted, in good faith, perhaps, the end of the oil age and the massive arrival of electric cars and renewable energies,” President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico said during a ceremony last month celebrating
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a new oil refinery
             </a>
             .
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              The president is pushing to bring the energy sector under state control
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             and reverse what he sees as corrupt privatization,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              reports The Times’s Oscar Lopez
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             . His hope is to return Mexico to the days when oil production underpinned its economy. He is putting up roadblocks to renewable energy, blocking plants from operating so that state fossil-fuel-powered ones can do so instead.
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              The changes mean leaving behind Mexico’s climate goals.
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             López Obrador has said the country will transition to renewable energy someday, but that it needs more time. His government plans to spend about $1.6 billion to build a solar plant and refurbish more than a dozen state-owned hydroelectric plants. But it has also budgeted $6.2 billion to build 15 fossil fuel-powered plants by 2024.
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               Bankers working on a $15 billion deal to
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                take Citrix Systems private
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               are proposing a new loan structure. (Bloomberg)
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               The struggling retailer Bed Bath &amp; Beyond is
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                seeking a $375 million loan
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               , but investors shrugged off liquidity concerns and sent the stock soaring. (WSJ)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Janet Yellen will use
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                $80 billion in fresh funding
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               to revamp the I.R.S. (NYT)
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               T.J. Cox, a former California congressman, was charged with an array of
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                financial crimes
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               . (NYT)
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               Meta will largely go with its 2020 playbook to
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                root out misinformation
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               on its platforms for the midterm elections. (Bloomberg)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               Tiger Woods met with top golfers to discuss the
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                future of the P.G.A. Tour
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               amid the LIV Golf controversy. (ESPN)
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               Under
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                pressure from investors
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               , P.&amp;G. has committed to reducing its environmental harm. (Reuters)
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               American Airlines is
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                buying 20 supersonic jets
               </a>
               that will get passengers from Los Angeles to Hawaii in three hours. (CNN)
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               Airbnb is deploying
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                anti-party technology
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               . (Fast Company)
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