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   DealBook: Debating the downgrade
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             August 5, 2023
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              Good morning. In today’s newsletter: lessons from the first U.S. downgrade; Taylor Swift, C.E.O.; and this summer’s far-right movie blockbuster. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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                  Fitch’s downgrade was just the second time that the U.S. has been stripped of the top credit rating.
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                  J. David Ake/Associated Press
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             Downgrade déjà vu
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             When Nikola Swann heard that Fitch Ratings had
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              removed the United States from its list of risk-free borrowers
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             this week, he felt a sense of satisfaction.
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             “It was vindicating,” he says.
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             More than a decade ago, Swann played a key role in a similar decision: He was Standard &amp; Poor’s primary analyst for its sovereign credit rating on the United States when the agency became the first ever to downgrade the nation’s long-term credit rating amid a debt ceiling standoff in 2011.
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             The move was controversial, in part because the Treasury Department pointed out that S&amp;P had overstated the federal debt by about $2 trillion. Bloomberg called the reasons for the downgrade “
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              fundamentally political
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             ” in 2011, while others
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              argued
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             that it appropriately reflected a worsening debt crisis.
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             Both a decade ago and this week, partisan politics were cited as one reason for the downgrade. S&amp;P cited “the gulf between the political parties.” Fitch, which made the call two months after
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              the United States narrowly avoided defaulting on its debt
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             , cited “the repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions.”
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             DealBook asked Swann over email about what had changed since S&amp;P’s downgrade, and what had not. The interview has been edited and condensed.
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              What did you make of the timing? Would it have been better to cut the U.S. credit rating during the debt ceiling debate?
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             The recurring debt-ceiling brinkmanship highlights the structural weaknesses in U.S. fiscal governance — so the more acrimonious they are and the closer they come to the cash-flow precipice. The credit rating agency’s job is to analyze all relevant information, with the two aforementioned variables among the more important indicators of the seriousness with which Washington treats U.S. federal payment obligations. It is natural to update your assessment soon after the latest debt-ceiling data point.
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              Does it make sense to downgrade the United States if you don’t downgrade all the other AAA rated countries? After all, if the United States sneezes, so do all these other countries, right?
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             Many countries that were rated AAA in 2011 have since been downgraded by one or more credit rating agencies; examples include the U.K., France and Canada. The U.S. remains the world’s most influential economy, but the strength of a country’s economy, while important, is only part of a sovereign rating assessment. Fundamentally, a sovereign credit rating is not an opinion on the country’s economy, per se, but on the likelihood that holders of the government’s debt will be paid on time, in full, and unconditionally.
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             A strong economy helps enormously, but dysfunctional fiscal governance can outweigh that strength. The remaining AAA countries have stronger track records than the U.S. when it comes to fiscal governance.
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              When you downgraded the United States in 2011, were you surprised the other ratings agencies didn’t follow suit?
             </span>
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             I expected the others to follow, eventually. It took longer than I expected, but it is happening.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              S&amp;P’s model had a mathematical error, which the U.S. Treasury pointed out. Why didn’t you change it?
             </span>
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             S&amp;P’s unprecedented 2011 downgrade of its U.S. sovereign credit rating was no error. The weaknesses we then pointed to, compared to AAA countries, in terms of Washington’s ability to build bipartisan consensus on key policy questions in a timely manner, especially regarding fiscal management, have only worsened since. The same is true of U.S. fiscal outcomes.
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              Do you see a day when the U.S. rating goes back up?
             </span>
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             That will happen when the U.S. significantly shrinks its structural fiscal deficit, putting government debt on a multiyear downward trajectory in terms of G.D.P., and more generally develops a track record for credible, medium-term fiscal discipline underpinned by multiparty political consensus — inasmuch as, by then, the U.S. economy remains strong and the U.S. dollar remains among the world’s most important currencies.
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Sarah Kessler
             </span>
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              Donald Trump was indicted — again.
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             The former president was
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              charged
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             in connection with trying to overturn the 2020 election, adding to a growing list of legal charges against him. Trump pleaded not guilty in a Washington court appearance on Thursday and remains the
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              leading candidate
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             for the Republican presidential nomination next year.
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              Disney’s Robert Iger taps former lieutenants for advice.
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             The C.E.O. of the media giant
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              brought back two former executives
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             once touted as potential successors: Kevin Mayer, the former head of M.&amp;A., and Tom Staggs, the ex-financial chief, will advise Disney on what the company should do with its legacy TV businesses.
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              Tom Brady becomes the latest North American star to invest in the other football.
             </span>
             The N.F.L. legend took a minority stake in Birmingham City, the English soccer team, joining the likes of the Hollywood actors Ryan Reynolds, Rob McElhenney and Michael B. Jordan, and the basketball player LeBron James to invest in the sport.
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                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  Taylor Swift, management guru.
                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Jordan Strauss/Invision, via Associated Press
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Lessons from C.E.O. Swift
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour is expected to soon pass $1 billion in revenue, a milestone
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              that often signifies a company’s transition from start-up to global competitor
             </a>
             . Swift is undoubtedly, if not quite literally, the C.E.O. of that tour, in addition to a powerful enterprise that includes high streaming numbers and huge merchandise sales.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “She’s the C.E.O. of one of the biggest direct-to-consumer brands on the planet,” said Nathan Hubbard, the former C.E.O. of Ticketmaster and current chief of the music company Firebird. (By comparison, the direct-to-consumer brand Warby Parker reported about $600 million in revenue this year.)
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Hubbard called Swift “Steve Jobs-ian” in her focus on detail and end-user customer experience. Here’s what else she may have in common with corporate titans.
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              She has full control over her brand.
             </span>
             Beyond writing, singing and performing her own songs, she has a sharp understanding of her customers, said Manisha Thakor, a financial wellness expert.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Thakor likened Swift to Home Depot’s founders, Bernie Marcus and Arthur Blank. “They were walking the aisles of the stores, they were talking to customers,” she said, indicating that Swift had responded to feedback in a similar way when she dropped a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              new version
             </a>
             of the song “Snow on the Beach,” after fans had complained that the song’s guest artist, Lana Del Rey, wasn’t featured enough.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The remake’s title: “Snow on the Beach (featuring more Lana Del Rey).”
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              She understands the importance of employee recognition
             </span>
             . Swift recently reportedly gifted “
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              life changing”
             </a>
             $100,000 bonuses to truck drivers who worked on her tour, which is about 10 times the norm. She’s also included truck drivers’ names in the credits of her Netflix documentary on the last tour.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “Recognition, like money, like power, is not evenly distributed,” said Loran Nordgren, a
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
             </span>
             management professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. “Most people in any company know it only fleetingly and are hungry for it.”
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Her leadership style may also come with risks.
             </span>
             Swift has created
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              such
             </span>
             a powerful brand for herself that she risks being called inauthentic if
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              her actions stray from that mirage
             </a>
             . One example of the pitfall: the backlash that Salesforce’s Marc Benioff received when he
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              laid off employees after espousing the company’s familial “Ohana” culture
             </a>
             .
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             There’s also potential for overexposure, a challenge Thakor said was exemplified by Jack Welch. “We all hung on every single word during his G.E. years,” she said. But when he left, and created concepts like the Jack Welch Management Institute, “we got fatigued by them, like we just didn’t want to hear from him anymore,” Thakor said.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             We will definitely be hearing from Swift, at least until 2024. She
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              announced new concert dates
             </a>
             this week.
            </p>
           </td>
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             <tbody>
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               <td align="center" style="width:100%;padding:0;line-height:1;text-align:center" width="100%">
                <img class="css-17i7zb3" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2023%252F08%252F05%252Fmultimedia%252F05db-newsletter-sound-tgvm%252F05db-newsletter-sound-tgvm-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1qSG7C:FTj_ihoE1Jk0JMQ1CEgGGpwnX4vkqPSn7Q69zDfrHDU" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;height:auto;padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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                <span class="css-14c9rv6" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
                 <span class="css-2zlgwg" style="margin:0;font:normal 12px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  “Sound of Freedom” has earned more in the United States and Canada than bigger-budgeted movies like the latest “Mission: Impossible.”
                 </span>
                 <span style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Angel Studios
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                </span>
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             How an unexpected blockbuster hacked the box office
            </h2>
           </td>
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        </table>
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       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “Barbenheimer” isn’t the only surprise hit at the box office: One of the biggest movies of the summer is a small-budget thriller about anti-child trafficking heroics that has been
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              praised by both mainstream conservatives and the far-right
             </a>
             .
            </p>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “Sound of Freedom” has grossed more than $155 million domestically, beating rivals with much bigger budgets, like “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One.” Controversy about the film’s content, which critics say appeals to the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              baseless QAnon conspiracy theory
             </a>
             about a global cabal of pedophiles, very likely helped stir interest. But a novel promotion system has also played a role.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
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             He said that B&amp;B audited its showings and couldn’t find any instances of phantom tickets, and that it hadn’t seen any drop in concession sales per ticket sold — an important metric, given that cinemas collect more profit from selling popcorn and drinks than from seats alone. “There are actual humans in the seats,” Bagby said.
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