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   DealBook: Markets reckon with Fitch’s downgrade
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   Also, Vince McMahon’s legal issues cast a shadow on a megadeal.
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             August 3, 2023
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              Good morning. In today’s newsletter: Markets continue to reckon with Fitch’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating; Vince McMahon’s legal troubles hover over WWE’s megadeal; and how companies are rebranding E.S.G. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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              )
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                  Treasury Department officials were said to be surprised by Fitch Ratings’ decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating.
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             The fallout from Fitch’s downgrade continues
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             Stocks appear set to open lower today, after falling yesterday in the wake of Fitch Ratings downgrading the United States’s AAA credit rating. (Treasury yields rose as well.)
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             White House officials, economists and some prominent Wall Street leaders said the move, which took the U.S. rating to AA+ because of concerns about growing federal deficits and political polarization, was puzzling and wouldn’t have much impact. But others have said Fitch’s move, while largely symbolic, still points to long-term troubles for the nation and its fiscal health.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The U.S. is unlikely to regain its pristine rating any time soon.
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             Richard Francis, Fitch’s primary U.S. analyst,
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              told The Times
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             that a key factor behind the downgrade was America’s intense partisanship, which had led to standoffs on the debt ceiling and forestalls any efforts to reach agreement on taxes or on increasing federal spending.
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             “There is no willingness on any side to really tackle the underlying challenges,” Francis said.
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              But “it doesn’t really matter much,”
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             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Jamie Dimon
             </a>
             , JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., told CNBC yesterday, echoing a common refrain to Fitch’s move. Critics of the move noted that according to criteria laid out last year by Fitch itself, including debt-to-G.D.P. ratio and macroeconomic performance, the U.S. was
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              improving
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             .
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             Indeed, investors aren’t considered likely to dump their Treasury holdings, given how central U.S. government debt is to global markets. (That’s especially helpful because the Treasury Department
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              White House officials were surprised by Fitch’s move,
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             believing that they had persuaded the agency’s analysts not to downgrade,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              according to The Washington Post
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             . The administration scrambled to coordinate a response to Fitch’s move, including noting that the Fitch report dinged the U.S. for governance failures under Donald Trump that, it said, had actually improved under President Biden.
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             Among Biden administration officials’ worries is that the downgrade could
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              become a political weapon
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             , amid Republican criticisms about federal spending. Indeed, Representative Jason Smith of Missouri, the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, said that Biden had “pushed America’s credit rating off the ledge” — even though Fitch said that both parties had contributed to the problems outlined in its report.
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              Still, some think the points raised by Fitch are valid.
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             Two former Treasury secretaries, Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner, urged Washington to
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              tame growing federal deficits
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             : “Our fiscal trajectory is concerning,” Paulson told Bloomberg Television, while Geithner warned that “you want to move the system to act before it’s late and hard.”
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             And Quincy Krosby, the chief global strategist for LPL Financial,
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              told Bloomberg
             </a>
             : “Ultimately, if the deficit isn’t contained, taxes will be raised to the point that the engine of the US economy — the all-important consumer — will have considerably less discretionary income.”
            </p>
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px">
               In other Washington news, the hedge fund mogul Bill Ackman said he’s
               <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                betting against 30-year Treasury
               </a>
               notes, a bearish move, believing U.S. inflation will hover around an elevated 3 percent.
              </span>
             </li>
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            <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </h3>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Donald Trump is set to appear in court today.
             </span>
             The former president is scheduled to be
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              arraigned in federal court
             </a>
             in Washington to face charges that he attempted to subvert the 2020 election; the fates of unindicted co-conspirators,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              including Rudy Giuliani
             </a>
             , remain unclear. Meanwhile, shortly after being indicted, Trump
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              dined with Fox News executives
             </a>
             , who urged him to participate in the first Republican presidential debate, which the network is hosting.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Bud Light’s owner discloses the damage from a conservative backlash.
             </span>
             Anheuser-Busch InBev said that its
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              U.S. revenue fell more than 10 percent
             </a>
             in the second quarter, largely because of a plunge in sales of Bud Light. Conservatives moved to boycott the brand, long one of the country’s best-selling beers, after it collaborated with a transgender influencer on a marketing campaign.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Investors’ eyes are on Amazon and Apple today.
             </span>
             The two will report their
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              latest quarterly earnings
             </a>
             after markets close, potentially giving insight into broad swaths of consumer and corporate spending. Among the key things to watch: how iPhone sales have held up and whether companies have cut spending on Amazon’s AWS cloud computing services.
            </p>
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             Continue reading the main story
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Meryl Streep and George Clooney help raise millions for striking actors.
             </span>
             The A-list stars — joined by the likes of Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio and Oprah Winfrey —
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              each gave $1 million
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             to the SAG-AFTRA Foundation, which gives aid to workaday actors. Negotiators for Hollywood studios are seeking to
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              resume talks with striking writers
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             in part because of the hard-line stance of the actors’ union.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             A legal cloud over WWE’s brash chairman
            </h2>
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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             Federal investigators
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              served Vince McMahon
             </a>
             , the executive chairman of WWE, with a grand jury subpoena and a search warrant last month.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             It was a reminder of ongoing questions about the pro-wrestling impresario, one of the biggest names associated with the company, as he sought to close a
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              multibillion-dollar merger
             </a>
             of WWE and Endeavor’s Ultimate Fighting Championship.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              WWE has also received legal demands for documents,
             </span>
             including from federal law enforcement and regulators, in the government’s inquiry into McMahon, the company
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              disclosed in a regulatory filing
             </a>
             yesterday. It added that no charges had been brought in the investigations.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The company said McMahon went on medical leave on July 21 following spinal surgery, days after being served the subpoena, though he remained executive chair.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             A WWE representative said it “has cooperated throughout and fully understands and respects the government’s need for a complete process.” In a statement, McMahon denied intentional wrongdoing and added that he was “confident that the government’s investigation will be resolved without any findings of wrongdoing.”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              It’s a reminder of the legal cloud over McMahon,
             </span>
             who stepped down from WWE last year after The Wall Street Journal reported that he had agreed to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              pay $3 million
             </a>
             to a departing employee with whom he was said to have had an affair, in exchange for a nondisclosure agreement.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             A board committee later unearthed other NDAs, though it ultimately said that those expenses, paid from McMahon’s pocket,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              should have been marked
             </a>
             as WWE expenses.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             McMahon returned to WWE’s board in January and repaid the company $17.4 million to cover expenses tied to its own inquiry. As part of the U.F.C. deal, he is set to become executive chair of the combined company; that transaction is still expected to close later this year.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The news didn’t appear to faze WWE investors:
             </span>
             The company’s share price rose in after-hours trading.
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “In the minority, they made it sound simple. … They’ve now discovered that their majority hinges upon six people who really need some SALT relief.”
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Representative Richard Neal, Democrat of Massachusetts, on
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               Republicans’ squabbling
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              over limits on federal deductions for state and local taxes (known in Washington as SALT).
             </span>
            </p>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             E.S.G. gets a rebrand
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Companies have come up with a new way to fight back against the war on E.S.G.: Stop talking about E.S.G.
            </p>
           </td>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Almost half of the businesses polled in a new
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              survey
             </a>
             by the Conference Board said they were changing how they talk publicly about environmental, social and governance issues, known as E.S.G., in the face of a fierce political backlash, and turning to terms like “sustainability.”
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Did Larry Fink start the shift?
             </span>
             The BlackRock chief executive has been a longtime champion of E.S.G., proselytizing about using the approach in the firm’s investment decisions and urging companies to do the same. But he has
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              dropped the term
             </a>
             , saying it has been “weaponized” by politicians after conservative politicians who say it is part of a broader liberal agenda. (Fink has also been accused of hypocrisy for
             <a class="css-5nb5nb" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              appointing Amin Nasser, the C.E.O. of the Saudi oil giant Aramco
             </a>
             , to his board.)
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The financial services and insurance industries are feeling the biggest backlash
             </span>
             . Republican-led state governments and officials have targeted large asset managers and banks, some of which have pulled investments, government pension funds, and contracting work from firms that are publicly committed to E.S.G. principles. Companies are also watching for increasing skepticism from consumers, business customers and institutional investors.
            </p>
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       </div>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The number of anti-E.S.G. shareholder proposals has increased significantly since 2020
             </span>
             . Most of these have fallen into the governance category. This has included separating the C.E.O. and chair positions of executives believed to be overly focused on E.S.G.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Things could become tougher for E.S.G. proponents
             </span>
             , with 43 percent of the survey respondents saying the backlash will worsen over the next two years. The debate will probably also feature heavily in the 2024 presidential race — some Republican candidates have already made attacking it central to their campaigns.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             And the Supreme Court’s recent invalidation of affirmative action in college admissions makes discussion of corporate diversity and inclusion initiatives — which would fall under “S” — even more difficult.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:8px 0 25px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
             THE SPEED READ
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              Deals
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               KKR and News Corp were among those that
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                bid for the book publisher Simon &amp; Schuster
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               this week; a sale is expected within weeks. (NYT)
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                raise around $1 billion
               </a>
               , after almost going bankrupt last year. (Bloomberg)
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                exchange-traded funds business
               </a>
               of Engine No. 1, the activist investment firm. (FT)
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                reached $10 billion in deposits
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               , following a report that the Wall Street bank was weighing ending the partnership. (Bloomberg)
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              Policy
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                blocking access to news
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               on Facebook and Instagram in Canada, weeks before a new law takes effect requiring online platforms to pay for news content. (NYT)
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                run on the crypto exchange
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               . (Semafor)
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               Sorry, Twitter really
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                should be called X
               </a>
               now. Separately, the social network is letting subscribers to its Blue service
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                hide their verification badges
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               , which have become targets of online ridicule. (NYT, Insider)
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               “Business Meals Are Back With a Vengeance, and
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                Everyone Feels Awkward
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               ” (WSJ)
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                commute changed
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               since the pandemic began? (NYT)
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