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   DealBook: Powell speaks
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   Also, how big could stablecoins get?
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             August 22, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. Today is the day: Jay Powell, the Fed chair, will speak in Jackson Hole, Wyo., laying out how he views the economy and how the central bank should approach it. Amid President Trump’s continued criticism of Powell, the speech takes on an even greater significance.
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          My colleague, Bernhard Warner, walks through the big issues we are likely to hear Powell address. Also, we take a look at the rise of stablecoins, as well as have some fun A.I. hacks for you from a C.E.O. And a quick programming note: We’ll be off next week, from Monday, so please have a great final week of August and we’ll see you in your inbox on Sept. 2, after Labor Day. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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             All eyes will be on Jay Powell, the Fed chair, today as he delivers what one economist says could be “a valedictory type of speech.” Investors are concerned about inflation and central bank independence.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Jeenah Moon for The New York Times
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          What will Jay say?
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          If Jay Powell’s past speeches at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium tell us anything, it’s that the Fed chief is not shy about
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          making big policy news
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         <span>
          at the central banker confab.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          With investors and business leaders growing spooked about inflation, tariffs and President Trump’s attacks on the Fed, today’s address — likely Powell’s last as chair — should be no different.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Wall Street will be closely watching for clues about what he thinks about rates; whether he’ll stand up for the institution’s independence; and what he’ll say about
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Lisa Cook
         </a>
         <span>
          , the Fed governor whom Trump has pushed to resign over unconfirmed mortgage-fraud allegations. The matter appeared to escalate yesterday after the Justice Department informed Powell of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a possible investigation into Cook
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Three I’s could loom large:
         </span>
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Interest rates:
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Trump again this week badgered Powell (with insults) to lower borrowing costs. This time, thanks to a deteriorating labor market, Powell
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                could signal he agrees
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . The futures market this morning was penciling in a 75 percent chance of a September cut, down from roughly 95 percent at the beginning of August.
               </span>
              </li>
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Inflation:
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The Fed
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                is divided
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                about the inflationary effects of Trump’s tariffs, while companies like
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Walmart
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                have warned that they’re getting squeezed. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2 percent target. Would Powell and his fellow rate-setters risk cutting now?
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Independence:
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Despite the barrage of abuse from Trump, Powell has stayed nonconfrontational. Expect that to continue, commentators say. But don’t be surprised if he speaks up today. “I think he may try to make a valedictory type of speech in terms of the importance of that independence,” David Seif, an economist at Nomura, told DealBook. That could reassure antsy global investors, he added.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Fed chiefs have long been in the firing line.
         </span>
         <span>
          Paul Volcker wrote in his memoir about meeting President Ronald Reagan and James Baker, the White House chief of staff, in 1984.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Volcker was “stunned,”
         </a>
         <span>
          he wrote, when Baker directly ordered him not to raise rates.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But such a heavy-handed approach can backfire on politicians
         </span>
         <span>
          , warned Carolin Pflueger, an associate professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy — especially if it ends up stoking inflation, angering voters. One lesson from the Volcker era, she told DealBook, is that often the best tool “to get inflation under control” is to focus on “long-term borrowing costs.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Still, Trump appears determined to remake the Fed with like-minded supporters.
         </span>
         <span>
          His administration is expected to soon name a successor to Powell, whose term as chair ends in May. And the president is angling to get Stephen Miran, a close economic adviser, confirmed as a temporary governor before the next rate-setting meeting, in mid-September.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Successfully getting Cook off the rates committee and replacing her with a loyalist would edge the institution further toward what Trump wants.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          That makes Powell’s next step tougher.
         </span>
         <span>
          “Powell has largely focused on maintaining Fed independence” despite big questions around inflation and tariffs, Seif said. “During the next nine months this will become increasingly difficult.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Seif added of Powell, “I suspect his dispute with Trump will likely be the most memorable part of his legacy.”
         </span>
        </p>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Elon Musk tried to partner with Mark Zuckerberg to buy OpenAI, a court filing shows.
         </span>
         <span>
          The revelation — that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Musk approached the Meta C.E.O.
         </a>
         <span>
          in an effort to engineer a takeover of the ChatGPT maker — emerged as part of the ongoing legal case between Musk and OpenAI. The proposed purchase figure was $97.4 billion, and dates to February. That looks fairly lowball today: OpenAI is involved in funding talks that would value the start-up
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          closer to $500 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Nvidia reportedly is set to halt production for its China-specific H20 chips.
         </span>
         <span>
          The company at the center of the artificial intelligence boom has informed suppliers of the move as Beijing cracks down on the chip in an effort to prop up the local industry,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The Information
         </a>
         <span>
          and
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Reuters
         </a>
         <span>
          report. Separately, the Trump administration
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          doesn’t plan to seek an equity stake
         </a>
         <span>
          in chipmakers that have received CHIPS Act grants — as long as they are upping their investment in the U.S., The Wall Street Journal reports.
         </span>
        </p>
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            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Anthropic is said to be nearing a huge funding deal — even by A.I. standards.
         </span>
         <span>
          The start-up is looking to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          raise as much as $10 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          , Bloomberg reports, which would value it at roughly $170 billion. The strong demand shows that appetite for A.I. financing remains robust even amid a recent slump in tech stocks closely connected to the technology.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          That said, Alphabet shares are gaining on a report of a major cloud deal with Meta,
         </span>
         <span>
          the parent of Facebook and Instagram. Meta is said to have agreed to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          spend more than $10 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          on Google cloud services to power its A.I. ambitions, according to The Information. Google is in fierce competition with Microsoft and Amazon for cloud contracts from the biggest A.I. players.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          President Trump scores a major legal victory.
         </span>
         <span>
          A New York appeals court yesterday
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          tossed out a half-billion-dollar civil court fine
         </a>
         <span>
          , saying the penalty was unconstitutional. But the court also ruled that Trump and others committed business fraud by pumping up the value of Trump Organization real estate assets in an effort to boost Trump’s purported net worth. The decision could set up another showdown with Trump’s nemesis Letitia James, New York’s attorney general, who has asked the state’s highest court to overturn the ruling.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           </td>
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           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The promise and peril of stablecoins
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Stablecoins have had a breakthrough moment this year, after President Trump signed into law the Genius Act, which outlined U.S. rules to govern the digital currencies for the first time.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That has set high expectations — including from the Trump administration — for the crypto assets’ move into mainstream finance, even as the assets potentially reshape the market for Treasury bonds and bolster global demand for the dollar. But skeptics worry about the dangers that wider acceptance might pose as well.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          How big could stablecoins get?
         </span>
         <span>
          No less than Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted that the market for these assets — cryptocurrencies backed by, well, stable assets including short-term U.S. Treasury securities and the greenback — could reach $2 trillion or more by 2028.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Though stablecoins are largely thought of as dollar-denominated tokens, they could go broader: China is shifting its stance toward digital assets to allow renminbi-backed stablecoins for the first time,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Reuters reported
         </a>
         <span>
          . And crypto firms this week
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          urged the British government
         </a>
         <span>
          to create a stablecoin strategy, with similar discussions
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          reportedly underway
         </a>
         <span>
          in Brussels.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          That could transform the market for Treasuries.
         </span>
         <span>
          Stablecoins will “lead to a surge in demand for U.S. Treasuries,”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Bessent said last month
         </a>
         <span>
          after Trump signed the Genius Act into law. He has also drawn on discussions with stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle to plan the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          sale of more short-term Treasuries
         </a>
         <span>
          in coming quarters, The Financial Times reported.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Some recent Treasury auctions have been lackluster, and stablecoins could bring in “large and constant” borrowers, Yesha Yadav, a law professor at Vanderbilt University who studies digital assets, told DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Some market observers think this is too optimistic.
         </span>
         <span>
          “We find it hard to believe the market could grow substantially larger” during the next few years over stablecoins’ current $260 billion market value,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          JPMorgan Chase strategists wrote
         </a>
         <span>
          this week. “While adoption is poised to grow further, it might be at a slower pace than what some might anticipate.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And there could be unintended negative consequences. If adoption were to take off, it could upend deposit flows out of banks to stablecoin issuers. Such a shift “could increase Treasury demand but also could reduce the supply of loans in the economy,” the Kansas City Fed noted in
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a research report
         </a>
         <span>
          this month. Other experts warn of
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a run on a stablecoin or a currency-peg failure
         </a>
         <span>
          that could
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          spill into the wider financial market
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Yadav noted that if a larger stablecoin issuer faced a crisis, it might need to quickly dump its Treasury holdings. A problem in doing so “tarnishes the reputation of the Treasury market as a safe haven,” she said.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “Humans don’t do well with that. They do well with clarity around power.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          David Astorino
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          , a senior partner at the consulting firm RHR International, expresses doubts about the corporate trend of having a replaced C.E.O. stay on the job, but in a new transitional role — often as an “executive chairman.” Target did just that this week, in a move involving its now former chief, Brian Cornell. Investors panned the move, sending shares sharply lower.
         </span>
        </p>
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           </td>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt='A blue bubble with white text that reads, "How do you use A.I.? What are your best use cases?" Another bubble underneath indicates a pending response.' class="css-xsf469" height="167" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F06%252F27%252Fbusiness%252Fdb-talking-ai-new%252Fdb-talking-ai-new-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTU4NjMwMDUuMDA4MTg4Mn0:1upQB3:xSFCfEq-56OT0pD-kbT2do0h07ySlbbHBt9PnG5FgR0" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Talking A.I. with the C.E.O. of Match Group
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          Every week, we’re asking a C.E.O. how he or she uses generative artificial intelligence. Spencer Rascoff, the C.E.O. of the online dating company Match Group, talked with DealBook’s Sarah Kessler about using A.I. to parse user feedback and how he was getting employees comfortable with the technology. The interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          How do you personally use A.I.?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          I asked A.I. to use tens of thousands of App Store reviews and Reddit comments about Tinder as a lens through which to evaluate our product road map. It helped us to very quickly tease out the importance of our college products and to design features like letting users search for others who attend their college or similar schools. In a pre-A.I. world that would have taken months of research and thousands of hours of focus groups.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          At home, I used A.I. to brainstorm names for our new family puppy. I wrote that our current dogs are named Ginger and Fido; I described their personalities and uploaded their photos, and I asked for name ideas that would match their energy and character. The leading candidates are Whiskey and Rusty.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What directives have you given your employees about how to use A.I.?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          We have been able to shift the culture to get people to be proud of their use of A.I. Even just a couple of months ago, people wouldn’t readily admit that a work product they created had been supplemented by A.I. Now people are coming into meetings saying, “This presentation, I created it with A.I.,” or “This press release, I drafted it with A.I.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          I teach a course on entrepreneurship at Harvard, and a year ago, my homework assignments there forbade the use of A.I. In this upcoming semester, I’ve incorporated A.I. into them. So in a year, we’ve gone from pretending and wishing A.I. didn’t exist to having A.I. be front and center in daily productivity.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
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           </td>
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                Major League Baseball is said to be in advanced talks with NBCUniversal on a roughly
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                $600 million broadcast deal
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                that would air games on NBC and the Peacock streaming service. (WSJ)
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                Warburg Pincus Hits Record
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                on Route to $10 Billion in Exits” (Bloomberg)
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                and threatening long-term economic growth. (CNBC)
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                ” (NYT)
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                Jay Blahnik
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                , Apple’s fitness chief, faces accusations that he created a toxic work environment and harassed colleagues. (NYT)
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