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June 26, 2025
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Good morning. Andrew here. There are two big stories dominating Wall Street this morning. One is a report that President Trump may resurrect the idea of creating a shadow Fed chair by announcing Jay Powell’s replacement long before his term ends. We examine some of the potential names and scenarios.
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And many corporate leaders remain preoccupied with trying to come up with a candidate to oppose Zohran Mamdani for New York mayor, an effort they’re willing to spend millions on. My colleagues and I go inside the conversations. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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President Trump is reportedly reviving deliberations about a move that could undercut the influence of Jay Powell, the Fed chair.
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Carlos Barria/Reuters
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The return of the “shadow Fed chair”?
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
President Trump’s ire at Jay Powell, the Fed chair, may be reaching a breaking point. Markets are increasingly fretful about what he may do about it.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
dollar is down
</a>
<span>
and U.S. Treasury bonds are up after
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
The Wall Street Journal reported
</a>
<span>
that Trump was weighing whether to announce his pick to replace Powell early, perhaps as soon as the summer.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Trump has openly attacked Powell for weeks,
</span>
<span>
frustrated by the Fed chair’s cautious approach to cutting rates. “He goes out pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he’s terrible,” the president said yesterday.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Trump may be reviving the idea of a “shadow Fed chair,”
</span>
<span>
in which the president names a replacement well before his term expires next year. That person would presumably represent Trump’s preferences, and as the central bank’s future leader would have more influence with the market than Powell.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That said, Trump declined to endorse the proposal when
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
it was floated
</a>
<span>
last year by Scott Bessent, who’s now his Treasury secretary.
</span>
</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td height="10">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr aria-hidden="true">
<td>
<div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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</td>
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<tr>
<td height="20">
</td>
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</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Who’s on the list?
</span>
<span>
Trump said yesterday that there are “three or four people” he’s considering. They probably include:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Kevin Warsh
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, a former Fed governor whom Trump had considered appointing as Treasury secretary. He has Wall Street experience, including at Morgan Stanley and Stan Druckenmiller’s family office. But The Journal reports that some in the administration are worried about his historically hawkish inflation views.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Kevin Hassett,
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
the director of Trump’s National Economic Council. While Hassett lacks Warsh’s Wall Street credentials, he’s respected in economic circles — and has been a loyal Trump aide. That said, he has told people he doesn’t want the job, according to The Journal.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Bessent,
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
who as Treasury secretary has won plaudits on Wall Street for his ability to help businesses make sense of Trump’s trade policy. That said, DealBook hears that he’s not interested and that many in the Trump camp want him to remain at Treasury.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Others in the mix, according to The Journal:
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Christopher Waller
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, a Fed governor, and
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
David Malpass
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, whom Trump chose to run the World Bank in his first term.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
But concerns about the shadow Fed chair idea haven’t gone away.
</span>
<span>
Undercutting Powell could undermine perceptions of the Fed’s independence. In the fall, Druckenmiller
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
called such a plan
</a>
<span>
“a horrible idea and irresponsible.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Though Trump has sometimes played down negative market reactions to his policies, like tariffs, they appear to have influenced him when it comes to the Fed, such as when stock futures and the dollar rallied after he
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
backed off threats
</a>
<span>
to fire Powell in April.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
If the president proceeds, he’ll probably try to frame the move in a way that doesn’t roil investors. Whether they would buy it is another question.
</span>
</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
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</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
</td>
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<td>
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Shell denies pursuing a takeover of BP.
</span>
<span>
The oil giant
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
said in a statement
</a>
<span>
that it hadn’t bid for its embattled rival, nor was it actively considering doing so,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
dismissing a Wall Street Journal report
</a>
<span>
. (Shares in BP, which spiked on The Journal’s report, quickly fell after Shell’s rejection.) Under British stock regulations, Shell now can’t make a takeover bid for BP for six months, unless another bidder emerges or BP invites an approach.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Senate Republicans continue to fight over a big domestic policy bill.
</span>
<span>
While party leaders are pushing for voting on the legislation to begin soon, disputes have shed doubt on that schedule. Among the latest developments:
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Senator Thom Tillis
</a>
<span>
of North Carolina reportedly told colleagues he won’t vote to proceed without clarity on Medicaid changes, and
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Senator Susan Collins
</a>
<span>
of Maine proposed a tax on those earning more than $100 million a year to help defray the bill’s costs.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Jes Staley loses his bid to overturn a ban on British banking jobs.
</span>
<span>
A British judge sided with the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority in
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
barring the former Barclays chief
</a>
<span>
from the country’s securities industry, ruling that he misled regulators about his relationship with the disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. Staley gave
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
unexpectedly detailed testimony
</a>
<span>
during his court fight.
</span>
</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td height="10">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td height="20">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:0 solid #dcdcdc;padding-top:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr aria-hidden="true">
<td>
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<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
The search for a mayoral plan B
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Zohran Mamdani’s
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
likely victory
</a>
<span>
in New York’s Democratic mayoral primary is continuing to send shivers down the spines of much of the city’s business elite.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
In urgent meetings with one another, DealBook hears, corporate leaders are discussing whether there’s any way to stop a democratic socialist with ambitious tax and borrowing plans from winning in November.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Here are some of the names being floated:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Jessica Tisch
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, a Democrat, the New York City police commissioner and a scion of the Tisch family that’s well known in the city’s philanthropic and business circles. Her résumé ticks a lot of boxes for corporate leaders: triple Harvard graduate (bachelor’s, law and M.B.A. degrees) and a career spent in public service, including work in counterterrorism, information technology and sanitation.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Representative Ritchie Torres,
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
a young and charismatic Democratic lawmaker representing most of the South Bronx. He’s seen as a moderate who has been openly critical of perceived excesses on the left, and has sometimes called for increased policing and strongly condemned antisemitism.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
There’s also the Eric Adams factor.
</span>
<span>
As
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
we noted yesterday
</a>
<span>
, some executives who backed Andrew Cuomo are now weighing whether to back the incumbent mayor, including the real estate mogul
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Scott Rechler
</a>
<span>
and the financier
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Dan Loeb
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
But there are also hurdles.
</span>
<span>
While Cuomo could appear on the November ballot on an independent party line, legal experts say that handing that position to anyone else would be complex and probably unlikely to happen. The hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, in an X post, suggested
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
a write-in candidate
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
And despite some efforts to rally support for Adams, the mayor remains deeply unpopular with the public. (A Quinnipiac University poll in March put his job approval rating at
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
20 percent
</a>
<span>
.) Many also worry that he and others — including whomever the business community coalesces around — could split the centrist vote.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Some in the business community are already looking beyond City Hall.
</span>
<span>
Several executives have discussed giving significant financial support to Representative Elise Stefanik, the Republican congresswoman, to potentially challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul. The hope is that Stefanik, who’s well-known and close to Trump, could check any perceived overreach by a Mamdani administration.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Others are also looking into New York State Assembly races.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
But some executives are moving on.
</span>
<span>
“Sometimes the only way to learn the value of what you have is to lose it,”
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Tyler Winklevoss
</a>
<span>
, the crypto entrepreneur, posted on X. “If that’s the case, Marxism and socialism might just be what the doctor ordered.”
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Taking Big Tech’s climate pledges to task
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
With Wall Street’s help, Big Tech successfully pitched itself to the markets as high-growth
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic">
and
</span>
<span>
eco-friendly.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
But those green credentials have since come under heavy criticism, especially as the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
huge needs
</a>
<span>
of companies’ artificial intelligence bets become clearer. A report set to publish today further sharpens those attacks, Vivienne Walt writes.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The latest:
</span>
<span>
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
NewClimate Institute
</a>
<span>
, a prominent European climate research organization, accuses Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft of potentially misleading investors, regulators and the public through imprecise climate accounting.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“The sector has lost control,” Thomas Day, a climate policy analyst for the institute, told DealBook, “and electricity consumption is flying through the roof.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The report urged regulators to require companies to disclose more specific details about the amount of renewable energy they consume and the precise locations where it’s consumed, rather than using measurements across broad regions and annual averages, as they do now. It also said companies weren’t disclosing the full pollution from their contractors, and proposed that they make tech devices last longer and easier to recycle.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Companies told DealBook what they thought:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Amazon said that the report made “inaccurate assumptions,” and that A.I. will help make its operations more sustainable.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Meta said it was one of the world’s biggest purchasers of renewables, was investing heavily in nuclear power and still aimed to zero out carbon emissions by 2030.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Microsoft said it was adapting its strategies to meet increased power demands, using long-term innovation.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Google and Apple did not respond to DealBook’s requests for comment.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The energy needs of A.I. are clear, and growing.
</span>
<span>
A huge data center that Amazon is building in Indiana, for instance, is expected to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
consume 2.2 gigawatts
</a>
<span>
, enough to power one million homes.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
U.S. data centers have
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
nearly tripled their electricity consumption
</a>
<span>
over the past decade. Those power needs could
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
possibly triple again by 2028
</a>
<span>
, according to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Melanie Nakagawa, Microsoft’s chief sustainability officer, wrote recently that the company’s goal of being “carbon negative” by 2030 has “
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
gotten further away
</a>
<span>
.” But she added that A.I. could eventually
</span>
<span style="font-style:italic">
help
</span>
<span>
the company hit its green targets.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The investor perspective:
</span>
<span>
So far, shareholders have appeared more concerned about A.I. ethics and safety than the technology’s climate issues, according
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
to a recent study by Morningstar
</a>
<span>
. More broadly, they have been
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
pulling back
</a>
<span>
from environmentally focused investing, with Morningstar last month reporting a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
record $8.6 billion in global outflows
</a>
<span>
from E.S.G.-focused funds.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
And many companies
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
have abandoned climate pledges altogether
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That said, Amazon last month faced a proxy vote calling on the company to elaborate on how its A.I. ambitions may derail its climate goals. The company
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
told investors
</a>
<span>
that it was going all in on renewables and remained “focused on meeting our climate goals.”
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">
<img alt="Construction workers seen in silhouette under the blazing sun and a cloudless sky." class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F06%252F26%252Fmultimedia%252F26db-newsletter-heat-lhgp%252F26db-newsletter-heat-lhgp-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTA5NDEyMzAuMjEyMzQxNX0:1uUlna:1GO_Ao6DErTFjFVMU2_1Xon0JGz5PmNJOMnYtyLo4B0" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
<span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
<span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
More heat waves could lead to less productivity, recent economic data shows.
</span>
<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
Cornell Watson for The New York Times
</span>
</span>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
The economy in the hot seat
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Some cooling
</a>
<span>
may be on the way for parts of the Eastern U.S. after days of record-breaking temperatures that
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
strained at least one power grid
</a>
<span>
and
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
prompted a blackout
</a>
<span>
in parts of New York City. Global warming is expected to increase the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
frequency and intensity of heat waves
</a>
<span>
, which could have a huge effect not only on health, but also on the economy.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Consider:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
A
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
2018 paper
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
published in The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking estimated that a one-degree increase in the average summer temperature is associated with
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
a reduction in the annual growth rate
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
of U.S. state-level gross domestic product of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Economists at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, drawing on data from over 2.7 million companies across 23 advanced economies from 2000 to 2021,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
found that
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
10 extra days above a temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit in a year results in a
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
0.3 percent
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
reduction in firms’ annual labor productivity
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
A
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Center for American Progress report
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
used insurance claims data in Virginia from 2016 to 2020 to deliver a preliminary estimate that
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
heat-related health care costs
</span>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
in the U.S. amount to as much as $1 billion in excess costs each summer.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support.
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
THE SPEED READ
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Deals
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
The prediction market operator
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Kalshi raised $185 million
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
in new funding at a $2 billion valuation. (WSJ)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“The Waning Ambitions of
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
China’s $1.3 Trillion Fund Giant
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
” (Bloomberg)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Tech and artificial intelligence
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Microsoft is said to be pushing to remove a clause from its contract with OpenAI that could limit the tech giant’s access to the ChatGPT maker’s technology once the start-up
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
achieves so-called artificial general intelligence
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
. (WSJ)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“A.I. Is Starting to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Wear Down Democracy
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
”
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Best of the rest
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Shares in Bumble soared
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
yesterday after the dating app operator said it would cut 30 percent of its workers. (WSJ)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Yes, there will be a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
sequel to “The Social Network”
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
— and Aaron Sorkin is set to direct it. (Variety)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
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</table>
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.
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