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   DealBook: “Sell America” comes back
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             May 19, 2025
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          Good morning. Markets’ attentions may be swinging to federal deficits instead of tariffs, but investors — and Moody’s, the ratings agency — remain troubled by what they see. The big question is whether that’s enough to persuade Republicans to change course on their budget plans. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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            <span style="color:#666;font:normal 14px georgia,serif">
             Even before Moody’s had downgraded the U.S. credit rating last week, Speaker Mike Johnson faced a tough fight to pass a major spending package.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Al Drago for The New York Times
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Markets get bearish on the U.S.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The “sell America” trade is back in focus this morning. Investors are bracing for a triple threat of an inflationary trade war, President Trump’s tax cut plan swelling the federal deficit, and fallout from Moody’s
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          cutting America’s triple-A credit rating
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         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          That adds pressure on the White House to make trade deals, and on House Speaker Mike Johnson to win over Republican fiscal hawks to make Trump’s big campaign vow — permanent tax cuts — a reality.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
         <span>
          S&amp;P 500 futures, oil, the dollar and Bitcoin
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          are all down
         </a>
         <span>
          . More worryingly, investors are selling government bonds, with the yield on the 30-year Treasury climbing above 5 percent, surpassing the level it reached in April when Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariffs. The administration quickly paused the levies after turmoil in the bond market, with Trump acknowledging that investors “were getting
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid
         </a>
         <span>
          .”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Wall Street has been watching to see how bond vigilantes respond to Trump’s domestic policy campaign, especially if it stokes inflation and adds to the deficit.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The downgrade was hardly a surprise.
         </span>
         <span>
          Moody’s put the U.S. on its watch list in November 2023, and the other major ratings agencies, Standard &amp; Poor’s and Fitch, made a similar move years ago.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Still, the decision shifts investor attention to deficits and America’s fiscal problems, especially as
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          doubts grow
         </a>
         <span>
          that Trump’s tariffs will be the revenue-generator he’s long promised.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Could the bond sell-off complicate the House’s budget negotiations?
         </span>
         <span>
          Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          minimized the Moody’s downgrade
         </a>
         <span>
          yesterday. But Representative Andy Harris, Republican of Maryland and a fiscal conservative, posted on X that it was “a signal that
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          we can wait no longer
         </a>
         <span>
          to address the debt crisis.” He later added: “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          I’m still a HARD NO
         </a>
         <span>
          ” on Trump’s “big, beautiful” spending bill.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Republicans can afford to lose
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          no more than three votes
         </a>
         <span>
          in either the House or the Senate.
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Larger cuts
         </a>
         <span>
          , including to popular measures like Medicaid and paring Inflation Reduction Act clean-energy tax credits, may win them over — but at what political cost?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Johnson has said he wants the bill to head to the floor for a vote this week.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Investors are also watching inflation.
         </span>
         <span>
          Walmart spooked some in the market when it said last week that tariffs would probably force it to raise prices as soon as this month. Trump angrily responded this weekend that Walmart should “
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          EAT THE TARIFFS
         </a>
         <span>
          ,” presumably meaning not pass the added cost on to consumers.
         </span>
        </p>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Bessent
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          told CNN yesterday
         </a>
         <span>
          that he had spoken with Doug McMillon, Walmart’s C.E.O., acknowledging that some, but not all, price rises “may get passed on to consumers.” He added that he expected
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          inflation to stay stable
         </a>
         <span>
          , however.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Consumers aren’t so sure.
         </span>
         <span>
          Friday’s University of Michigan survey showed that households see
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          year-ahead inflation spiking
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Trump’s handling of the economy has already
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          hurt his approval ratings
         </a>
         <span>
          . A potential credit crisis won’t help.
         </span>
        </p>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="color:#000;font:700 12px/15px arial,sans-serif;padding-bottom:2px;letter-spacing:.8px;margin:0">
         DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Or have the tariffs helped your business? Please
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          let us know what you’re doing
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td height="10">
           </td>
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           </td>
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          <tr aria-hidden="true">
           <td>
            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
             <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D1053700%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20250519%2526stpe%253Ddefault/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NDc2NTUwOTkuNDMyNjI4Nn0:1uGyvT:y_KNiPqP9HiqXQsUtInQbthJ9aRF-s_646XT4rZ5Khw" style="max-width:96px;margin-bottom:7px"/>
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          <td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Joe Biden is diagnosed with prostate cancer.
         </span>
         <span>
          The former president’s office said doctors had found
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          an aggressive form of the cancer
         </a>
         <span>
          and that his family was discussing treatment options with them. President Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris were among those that issued supportive statements; the news comes as Democrats are
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          reckoning with their initially staunch support
         </a>
         <span>
          of Biden’s re-election campaign.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          New Jersey’s statewide transit strike is over.
         </span>
         <span>
          NJ Transit and the union that represents the state’s passenger-train drivers
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          called off the work stoppage
         </a>
         <span>
          yesterday after reaching a compromise on pay and work rules. The strike was set to cost NJ Transit an estimated $40 million a day — but the trains aren’t running just yet: Safety checks will be conducted today, and full service won’t resume until tomorrow.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Capital One closes its takeover of Discover Financial.
         </span>
         <span>
          The
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          formal conclusion
         </a>
         <span>
          of the $35 billion deal creates a new credit card giant, coming after the companies persuaded federal authorities that the transaction would strengthen a rival to Visa and Mastercard. But Capital One suffered a blow a few days ago,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          agreeing to pay $425 million
         </a>
         <span>
          to settle litigation accusing it of cheating savings customers out of higher interest rates.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
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           <td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Exclusive: A $6 billion bet to get hospitals paid using A.I.
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Hospitals and doctors are at war with health insurance firms for every last dollar.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          With the explosion of electronic medical records — and hundreds or thousands of reimbursement codes — it’s almost impossible for hospital systems and their staff to keep up with the paperwork needed to get paid. Health insurers
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          deny
         </a>
         <span>
          almost one out of every five claims.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Now a new venture aims to fix that. New Mountain Capital plans to announce a $6 billion deal to establish a company that will use artificial intelligence to help hospitals and other health care providers get paid more quickly, Maureen Farrell is first to report for DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The new business, Smarter Technologies, was created through an acquisition and merger of three separate businesses. One of them, Access Healthcare, already manages billing for hundreds of hospitals.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Smarter Technologies will combine Access Healthcare’s system with two artificial intelligence start-ups: SmarterDx and
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Thoughtful.ai
         </a>
         <span>
          . Jeremy Delinsky, formerly with the health care software company Athenahealth, will be C.E.O.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What’s the model?
         </span>
         <span>
          Smarter Technologies takes a percentage of the revenue they collect. By applying its A.I. to existing revenue collection systems, New Mountain Capital is betting its technology can find the proper codes demanded by insurance providers. These codes are notoriously difficult to decipher and navigate. The A.I. systems can speed up processing so the staff can get bills paid the first time around, or more quickly challenge denied claims.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Dr. Samara Llewellyn leads the clinical documentation practice at Novant Health, which operates more than 700 clinics and urgent care centers in North Carolina and South Carolina. Her teams struggle to find the right codes used for billing, she said, which makes it easy for insurance companies to deny claims. “There are 150,000 codes out there. And it’s basically impossible for providers to know all of that.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Kathrynne Johns, the C.F.O. of Allegiance Mobile Health, the largest private provider of ambulances in Texas, has been using Thoughtful.ai’s system since last year. In the first month of use, Johns said, the number of claims paid within 30 days rose to 27 percent from roughly 10 percent to 15 percent.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Healthcare is an M.&amp;A. hot spot.
         </span>
         <span>
          Deal making has mostly stalled under President Trump, as his tariff gambit continues to stoke economic uncertainty, but health care mergers and acquisitions have stayed active.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          So far this year, deals for health care firms accounted for roughly 12 percent of all buyouts, according to Dealogic, the largest share in more than a decade.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          New Mountain Capital, which manages about $55 billion in investor money, has targeted this sector. Matt Holt, managing director and president of New Mountain, said if Smarter Technologies could speed up payment timing, it could generate cost savings for hospitals and significant revenue for the company.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Caveat:
         </span>
         <span>
          Bob Kocher, a partner at the V.C. firm Venrock Capital and a former senior health care adviser to President Barack Obama, warned that A.I. automation is unlikely to reduce health care costs overall.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “No hospital will buy an A.I. widget that means their revenue goes down,” he said. “There’s no market for that.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Buffett steps back from Berkshire’s annual meeting
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          When Warren Buffett announced that he
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          planned to step down
         </a>
         <span>
          as C.E.O. of Berkshire Hathaway, he said that his successor, Gregory Abel, was ready to handle the job.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          A small but prominent test of that will come next year, when Buffett sits out the signature Q&amp;A session at Berkshire’s annual meeting in Omaha. The change could give a sense of whether the company, which Buffett built into a trillion-dollar conglomerate, will lose its luster as its longtime leader steps back.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          “I’m going to leave it to Greg,”
         </span>
         <span>
          Buffett said of the decision, his daughter, Susie,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          told the Omaha World-Herald
         </a>
         <span>
          . The billionaire will attend the meeting, set for May 2, 2026 — but will sit with other directors on the floor of the CHI Health Arena.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Susie Buffett said that when it comes to questions about Berkshire and its operations, Abel, who already handles much of the day-to-day matters, is at least as capable of answering as her father was.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          But the investors meeting has usually been about more than that.
         </span>
         <span>
          Shareholders have flocked to Omaha every year to ask Buffett about nearly anything, one of the many things that set Berkshire apart from other companies. Susie Buffett acknowledged that may no longer happen, though she expects a packed arena next year.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A drop-off in attendance could have a major economic effect.
         </span>
         <span>
          Berkshire shareholders give the Omaha economy
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a big boost
         </a>
         <span>
          : The city sold out 92 percent of its hotel rooms last year during the event, which generated more than $21 million in tourism revenue, according to Deborah Ward, the head of Visit Omaha.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          And many Berkshire-owned companies set up shop at the annual meeting, selling Dairy Queen Dilly bars, Brooks running shoes and more to attendees.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Berkshire is hoping that will continue.
         </span>
         <span>
          Abel told the World-Herald that the company announced the change now “so people come with the right expectation,” but added that all the usual events that accompany the annual meeting — the shareholder-only shopping event, the Brooks 5K race the day after — will go on as usual.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “Tariffs are Boeing’s problem, not ours.”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          Michael O’Leary
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          , the C.E.O. of the airline Ryanair and a major customer of the plane maker, on who’s really getting hit by President Trump’s trade fight.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          The market lessons of papal betting
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Throngs of worshipers and world leaders descended on Rome yesterday for Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural Mass. At one point, the first American pontiff
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          reflected on his unlikely election
         </a>
         <span>
          , an outcome that stunned the faithful and
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Vatican experts
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It has also led to questions about the wisdom of prediction markets, as
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          bettors took to Polymarket and Kalshi
         </a>
         <span>
          to wager on the Vatican’s ancient selection process. Some market watchers gleaned lessons from how those gamblers got it wrong, and what it says about wider market trends like meme stocks.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A recap:
         </span>
         <span>
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          White smoke billowed
         </a>
         <span>
          from a chimney atop the Sistine Chapel around 6 p.m. Rome time on May 8, signaling that cardinal electors had chosen a new pope. Bettors piled into prediction markets, wagering that the longtime front-runner, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, had won.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Here’s how Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          described what happened next
         </a>
         <span>
          :
         </span>
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        <p class="css-14jlz04" style="font:17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 50px 15px;color:#666">
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          The price of the Parolin contract doubled within minutes, as the other prices slid. It remained above sixty percent for the rest of the hour, before collapsing to zero once the identity of the new pope was publicly revealed:
         </span>
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            <img alt="A line chart shows the quickly changing odds on May 8 for whom would be named the new pope." class="css-xsf469" height="539" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F05%252F19%252Fbusiness%252F19db-chart%252F19db-chart-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NDc2NTUwOTkuNDMzMDYyfQ:1uGyvT:DlmF1AGICVKcWqPn6PgsSUenWcJDQSRO6EIT4FTqNz8" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
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         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Bettors could see the Parolin rally happening in real time, but didn’t know why.
         </span>
         <span>
          Without inside information, bettors probably suspected that others must know
         </span>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          something
         </span>
         <span>
          about the next pope’s identity, setting off a stampede, Sethi concluded.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          This kind of feedback loop is a common — and sometimes destabilizing — feature of markets, said Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, a physicist who co-founded the French hedge fund Capital Fund Management. “When a price moves, it affects what people think,” Bouchaud, who has
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          studied how bubbles and manias form
         </a>
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          , told DealBook. In extreme cases, he added, “this induces bubbles and crashes and trends.”
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          He saw a similar phenomenon in January 2021, when retail investors, armed with little news, sent the shares in the loss-making retailer GameStop to extraordinary heights.
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          The takeaway:
         </span>
         <span>
          The conclave may have revealed prediction markets’ limits, but Sethi and Bouchaud said the result offers a timely lesson in how volatility can swing markets absent clear information.
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Potential successors to Jamie Dimon
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                as JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O. will get a prominent audition today at the bank’s annual investor meeting. (WSJ)
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              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The latest surge of blank-check company listings is being led by a
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                new crop of boutique banks
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , not traditional Wall Street players. (FT)
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                “Sam Altman says critics of Trump’s AI deals with Gulf nations
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                are ‘naive’
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                ” (Business Insider)
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                How G.M. is seeking to
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                overturn California’s planned ban
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                on the sale of new gas-powered cars and trucks by 2035. (WSJ)
               </span>
              </li>
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          Best of the rest
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                Investigators are still trying to figure out why a Mexican sailing vessel
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                hit the Brooklyn Bridge
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                on Saturday, despite never intending to head that way. (NYT)
               </span>
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                Crypto millionaires are
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                turning to bodyguards
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                and more to protect themselves from a seeming rise in
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                real-world violence and kidnapping attempts
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                . (Bloomberg, WSJ)
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