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DealBook: The give-and-take tariff strategy
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April 15, 2025
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Good morning. The Trump administration is continuing its back-and-forth approach to tariffs that is keeping markets guessing. We break down the latest below. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been increasingly called on to soothe tariff worries.
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<span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
Tom Brenner for The New York Times
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Investors search for a way forward
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Global markets have gone from “
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yippy
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” to feeling calmer, with stocks in Asia and Europe mostly higher this morning and the dollar showing signs of life.
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But business leaders and
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consumers
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are still bracing for more aftershocks from President Trump’s trade war, while many investors sour on the United States. (Just in: Beijing has escalated its clash with Washington,
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<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
ordering Chinese airlines to halt
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<span>
new Boeing jet deliveries.)
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The Trump administration’s latest response: refocus the message.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Where things stand:
</span>
<span>
Trump’s give-and-take tariffs strategy was on full display yesterday with the president signaling he would consider an exemption for auto parts — “
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
they need a little bit of time
</a>
<span>
” to bring back manufacturing to the United States — but reiterating that levies on chips and pharmaceuticals were coming.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Auto stocks rallied on the news. But Nvidia, the chips giant that became the latest tech giant to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
promise a major domestic spending initiative
</a>
<span>
, was down in premarket trading today.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Trump’s on-again-off-again policy has pushed some traders to the brink.
</span>
<span>
Global investors have dumped their U.S. stocks
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
at a record clip
</a>
<span>
during the past two months, a Bank of America investor survey released this morning shows. They also fear tariffs sinking the global economy.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Fed officials and C.E.O.s increasingly share those downturn concerns:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
David Solomon of Goldman Sachs
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
never mentioned “tariffs”
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
on his bank’s earnings call yesterday, but he did warn that recession odds
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
have increased
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
. On the bright side: Market volatility
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
fueled huge gains
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
on Wall Street trading desks, including Goldman’s.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
LVMH
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
warned that even its well-heeled customers were pulling back on purchases. Its shares fell sharply today — along with much of the sector — as the luxury goods giant warned that trade war uncertainty may force it to raise prices.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Raphael Bostic
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, the president of the Atlanta Fed, said that companies faced a “fog” of uncertainty over shifting tariffs policy, putting the economy “in a big pause position.” His take: The Fed will have to go slow on cutting interest rates.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
<tbody>
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<td>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
What Trump officials are saying:
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Kevin Hassett
</a>
<span>
, the director of the National Economic Council, played down recession fears. And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was “
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
no evidence
</a>
<span>
” that foreign countries were dumping Treasury notes and bonds.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The White House, Bessent added, has a “strong dollar” policy, despite Trump’s longstanding grumbles about its effect on exports. (More on the dollar below.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Of note, Bessent threw his support behind the Fed.
</span>
<span>
The Treasury secretary said
</span>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
</span>
<span>
he meets weekly with the Fed chair, Jay Powell, signaling that relations between the administration and central bank are solid. “I believe that monetary policy is a jewel box that’s got to be preserved,” he told Bloomberg Television, playing down concerns that the White House might seek to pressure it to lower rates.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Bessent added that the administration would begin
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
interviewing candidates
</a>
<span>
in the fall who could replace Powell, whose term ends next year.
</span>
</p>
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</td>
</tr>
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<td>
<div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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</td>
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<td height="20">
</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
In other tariff news: A group of small businesses
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
sued to block
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Trump’s levies, in the latest effort to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
get the courts to halt the policy
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="color:#000;font:700 12px/15px arial,sans-serif;padding-bottom:2px;letter-spacing:.8px;margin:0">
DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U. S.? Or has it helped your business? Please
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
let us know what you’re doing
</a>
<span style="font-style:italic">
.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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<tbody>
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<td height="30">
</td>
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<td style="padding:0;font-size:0;border-top:8px solid #000">
<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
</span>
</h3>
</td>
</tbody>
</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene discloses she traded stocks and bonds ahead of the tariffs rally.
</span>
<span>
The Georgia Republican bought between $21,000 and $315,000 of equities and sold off Treasury bonds
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
the day before President Trump ordered
</a>
<span>
a 90-day delay on tariffs, which prompted a market surge. That comes as Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
call for an investigation
</a>
<span>
into people in Trump’s orbit. (The Trump administration has denied there was
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
any illegal trading
</a>
<span>
.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
The Trump administration defies the Supreme Court twice in one day.
</span>
<span>
The White House
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
refused an order
</a>
<span>
to bring back Kilmar Armando Abrego García, a Salvadoran immigrant who was mistakenly deported. In an Oval Office meeting with the president of El Salvador yesterday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “No court in the United States has a right to conduct the foreign policy of the United States.” The White House also
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
refused to admit
</a>
<span>
journalists from The Associated Press to the Oval Office event, defying another
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Supreme Court order
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Netflix reportedly pursues a $1 trillion valuation.
</span>
<span>
The streaming giant has shared internally
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
an ambitious five-year plan to double revenue
</a>
<span>
— with a big chunk coming from ad sales — and boost its share price, The Wall Street Journal reports. But to achieve that, the company would need to drastically increase its global subscriber numbers amid the uncertainty of a trade war.
</span>
</p>
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<div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
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<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
A playbook against Trump emerges
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
In the first major challenge to President Trump’s pressure campaign on higher education, Harvard rejected the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
administration’s latest demands
</a>
<span>
, calling them a violation of the institution’s First Amendment rights.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“No government — regardless of which party is in power — should dictate what private universities can teach, whom they can admit and hire, and which areas of study and inquiry they can pursue,” Alan Garber, the president of Harvard,
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
said in a statement
</a>
<span>
.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
It’s another significant rebuke of Trump after law firms like Perkins Coie sued the administration over executive orders that would cripple their ability to represent clients. What’s emerging is a playbook for how to stand up to the Trump White House.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Catch up:
</span>
<span>
The president has targeted major universities for what he says is insufficiently combating discrimination like antisemitism. In the case of Harvard, the administration has
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
issued demands
</a>
<span>
including that it share all hiring data and that it overhaul academic departments and schools like the Medical School.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
After
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Harvard rejected
</a>
<span>
those demands, White House officials said yesterday that the government would freeze $2.2 billion in grants to Harvard, along with a $60 million contract. Last month, the administration said that it was
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
examining about $9 billion in federal grants and contracts
</a>
<span>
for the university.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Some in the legal world have already taken on Trump.
</span>
<span>
When Perkins Coie sued the Trump administration, the nation’s 10 largest firms by revenue
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
did not back
</a>
<span>
the fight, though more than 500 others signed a friend of the court brief in support of its lawsuit.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
That underscores an emerging divide among law firms.
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Paul Weiss
</a>
<span>
created a template for settling with Trump by agreeing to provide pro bono services to causes he supports, which
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
other
</a>
<span>
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
major
</a>
<span>
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
corporate
</a>
<span>
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
firms
</a>
<span>
have followed.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
A similar divide is emerging among universities.
</span>
<span>
Last month, Columbia
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
agreed to major concessions
</a>
<span>
after the Trump administration stripped it of $400 million in federal funds. But the president of Princeton
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
recently spoke out
</a>
<span>
against the administration’s threats to withhold federal money.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Some of the key players in the Harvard fight have ties to Trump.
</span>
<span>
The lawyers behind the school’s response are William Burck of Quinn Emanuel and Robert Hur of King & Spalding. Hur worked in the Justice Department under the first Trump administration who as special counsel
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
investigated President Joe Biden’s handling
</a>
<span>
of classified materials.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Burck has represented
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
Trump’s business organization
</a>
<span>
and also
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
advised Paul Weiss
</a>
<span>
as it negotiated with the White House.
</span>
</p>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
Zuckerberg on the stand
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Mark Zuckerberg used
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
his first day of testimony
</a>
<span>
at the F.T.C.’s antitrust trial against Meta to try to undercut the government’s efforts to dismantle his tech giant.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The basic thrust: Meta’s competition is a lot bigger than what the F.T.C. says it is.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Meta does more than connect friends and family,
</span>
<span>
Zuckerberg testified. While that’s core to the company — and the focus of the F.T.C.’s case that Meta illegally deprived consumers of other social networking options — he said that the company ultimately is in the business of “entertainment and learning about the world and discovering what’s going on.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Meta’s lead lawyer, Mark Hansen, added that the company faced strong competition, especially from TikTok. (One proof point: When TikTok was briefly banned in the U.S. in January, Facebook and Instagram saw a surge in use, he said.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
“This case is a grab bag of F.T.C. theories at war with fact and at war with the law,” Hansen said. He also called the agency’s definition of the social media market “gerrymandering.”
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Zuckerberg also sought to play down old emails between him and lieutenants.
</span>
<span>
When asked about a 2012 email in which he discussed buying Instagram but then not adding new features, Zuckerberg said that represented “relatively early thinking.” He noted that his team ultimately invested a lot into the photo and video app. (The marketing company Emarketer estimated in December that Instagram represented a
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
little more than half
</a>
<span>
of Meta’s U.S. ad sales.)
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
What commentators are saying:
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“The government’s case is carefully designed to skirt the issue of TikTok’s impact on the market,” writes
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
The Information’s Martin Peers
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
.
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“The idea that Meta’s feeds have expanded beyond their historic friends-and-family origins should be settled fact,” writes
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Platformer’s Casey Newton
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
.
</span>
</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<table width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
<span>
The dollar keeps dropping. It’s complicated.
</span>
</h2>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The U.S. dollar is usually considered a haven during tumultuous times. But since January, it has fallen about 8 percent against other major currencies. And the yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose last week to about 4.5 percent, from less than 4 percent the week before.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The dollar and Treasuries usually thrive when stocks stutter. It has led to a lot of chatter about whether global investors are
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
pulling back from the U.S.
</a>
<span>
or if it’s something more technical, like the
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
basis trade
</a>
<span>
, or a sell-off by foreign governments. Sarah Kessler spoke with John Canavan, the lead analyst at the advisory firm Oxford Economics, about how to understand the debate.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-style:italic">
The interview has been edited and condensed.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
How do you think about what is happening right now? Is the U.S. losing its brand as a haven?
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
It’s a concern, but it’s not an emergency. We have already seen President Trump begin to acknowledge some of these risks and concerns, and that has relieved some of the pressure.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The U.S.’s economic strength, the size and liquidity of the U.S. asset markets and the U.S. Treasury market: These are all things that are going to allow the U.S. to remain a key source of safe-haven supply for the rest of the world, even if not the only source as it has been in the past.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
What would need to change for you to think it’s an emergency?
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Global markets are interconnected; there’s no way to fully avoid that. If we’re to shut ourselves off from the world more significantly, I think that’s when it would start to become a little bit more of an emergency situation for the dollar and for Treasuries.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the bond sell-off could be attributed to large
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
investors trying to cover losses
</a>
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
. How plausible is this?
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
There has been a lot of talk and speculation about an unwinding of
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
basis trades
</a>
<span>
being partly responsible for what we’ve been seeing, but data released by the C.F.T.C. on Friday strongly suggested that this was not an unwinding of basis trades.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
Evidence of basis trades, as seen in the data, has been a very large and growing short base in Treasury futures among leveraged investors, and a large and growing long position in Treasury futures by asset managers. And in fact, those positions grew last week, through last Tuesday, rather than shrinking, as you would expect if that trade was unwinding.
</span>
</p>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span>
The new data really helped to strengthen the point that you can’t be sure who is selling — and why. You can’t be sure that it wasn’t foreign investors. We don’t have the evidence to know for sure one way or the other.
</span>
</p>
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</td>
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<span style="font-style:italic">
We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support.
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<h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
<span>
THE SPEED READ
</span>
</h3>
</td>
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</table>
<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Deals
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Intel agreed to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
sell a majority stake in Altera
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
, a programmable chips division, to the investment firm Silver Lake for $4.46 billion. (Reuters)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Risky corporate borrowers shut out of bond market
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
since Trump’s tariff blitz” (FT)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Politics, policy and regulation
</span>
</p>
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<table>
<tbody>
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<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“Goldman’s Solomon Is Confident
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
Trump Will Roll Back Bank Rules
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
” (Bloomberg)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
The White House plans to ask Congress to
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
rescind $1.1 billion in funding
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
for the taxpayer-backed Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which could cut the finances of NPR and PBS. (NYT)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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<p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
<span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
Best of the rest
</span>
</p>
<div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
<table>
<tbody>
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<td style="padding:0 0 5px">
<ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
CBS averaged
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
more than 12 million viewers
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
for Rory McIlroy’s victory at the Masters golf tournament on Sunday, the most-watched final round of the event in seven years. (Golfweek)
</span>
</li>
<li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
“The Power Trip:
</span>
<a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
David Zaslav’s Shaky Hollywood Empire
</a>
<span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
” (New York Magazine)
</span>
</li>
</ul>
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Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.
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DealBook: The give-and-take tariff strategy
Also, Harvard’s Trump resistanceView in browser|nytimes.comApril 15, 2025Good morning. The Trump ...