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   DealBook: What the jobs report says
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             August 6, 2021
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                  Where are the workers?
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             The labor market’s message
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             This morning, the government will report how many workers U.S. employers added to their payrolls in July.
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              Economists expect a big number
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             — as many as 850,000 — in another sign that the economic recovery continues.
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             The stakes are higher than usual, as various emergency stimulus measures are
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              about to expire
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             , the infrastructure bill is
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              nearing passage
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             , and the Fed is contemplating how and when to taper its
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              extraordinary efforts
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             to support the economy during the pandemic. Economists have their eyes on both the number of jobs created as well as wages, which were up a relatively high 3.6 percent in June versus a year ago. Here’s how to interpret the results.
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              Weak job gains and little growth in wages:
             </span>
             This is bad. The Delta variant of the coronavirus is causing more economic damage than thought. Congress could speed forward the infrastructure bill, and President Biden may emerge with more leverage to push through a bigger budget. As for the Fed? The urgency to taper bond purchases, and to eventually raise interest rates, fades away.
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              Weak job gains, but a big jump in wages:
             </span>
             This is OK. Vincent Reinhart, the chief economist for BNY Mellon Asset Management, points to a growing mismatch between employers and job seekers, and notes that the economy isn’t weakening yet. That’s not a roadblock for an infrastructure bill, but it makes passing a big budget tougher. The Fed, meanwhile, needs to thread the needle between rising inflation and a job market that isn’t growing as fast as it could.
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              Strong job growth with muted wage gains:
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             This is good, at least for businesses. The economy is strong, workers are returning to the job market and the supply and labor issues that have pushed up prices are receding. Biden would no longer have to fight arguments that government spending is causing inflation. The Fed can let the economy run with fewer fears of overheating.
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              Strong job growth and hefty wage gains:
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             This is great, for now.
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             The post-pandemic economy is in full swing, with workers reaping the rewards. But the recovery is likely closer to the end than the beginning. That puts ambitious government spending plans in jeopardy. The Fed may taper its support sooner, possibly leading to market tantrums.
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             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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              The infrastructure bill will add $256 billion to the deficit over 10 years.
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             The Congressional Budget Office analysis could complicate plans
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              to vote on the bill this weekend
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             . But the C.B.O.’s report didn’t include tens of billions in projected additional revenue, nor billions saved from redirecting unused stimulus funds.
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              Amazon, BlackRock and Wells Fargo push back their returns to the office
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             . Amazon said corporate employees did not need to return
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              until January
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             , and BlackRock said only vaccinated workers would be allowed in offices starting in October. CNN
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              fired three employees
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             who violated its policy by going to the office unvaccinated, one of the first known examples of enforcement of a workplace mandate.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Robinhood loses its meme momentum.
             </span>
             The stock of the trading app
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              plunged 27 percent
             </a>
             yesterday as early investors registered to sell shares after a red-hot run. Venture capital firms collecting big paydays as Robinhood’s shares sink (although they remain well above the I.P.O. price) could challenge the company’s image as a champion of small investors.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Exxon Mobil may pledge to go carbon neutral by 2050.
             </span>
             Executives have previously called such pronouncements meaningless, and
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              pushed back
             </a>
             against government climate policy, but The Wall Street Journal reports that the company is now
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              considering a “net zero” pledge
             </a>
             .
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Families of 115 U.S. service members killed overseas sue big banks.
             </span>
             The lawsuit says that Deutsche Bank, Standard Charter and others
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              helped to finance terrorist attacks
             </a>
             by not policing its accounts. It is broader than past actions brought under a 2016 antiterrorism law, which had mixed results.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             The green road trip of tomorrow
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Biden
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              signed an executive order yesterday
             </a>
             calling for half of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030 to be electric. “They’re a vision of the future that is now beginning to happen, a future of the automobile industry that is electric,” he said at the White House, standing before an array of electric vehicles.
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             Continue reading the main story
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The shift to electric cars won’t be easy.
             </span>
             Manufacturers and suppliers need to transform factories, charging stations need to be built and consumers need to be persuaded to buy. In June,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              less than 4 percent
             </a>
             of new cars sold in the U.S. were pure electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids, a quarter of the share of electric sales in Europe. Biden’s order envisions building a nationwide network of charging stations, providing financial incentives and instituting new fuel-efficiency rules, moves akin to those made in Europe and China.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Policymakers have framed the push as part of a geopolitical competition
             </span>
             , overhauling a major industry to compete with China, which makes about 70 percent of all electric-vehicle batteries, in an effort that blends environmental, economic and foreign policy. “This is the first example of how Biden’s administration would do industrial policy in the climate change context,” said Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              The auto industry is mostly on board.
             </span>
             Ford’s C.E.O., Jim Farley, said in a statement that his company was “counting on strong cooperation” between the administration, Congress and state and local governments. Ford, G.M., Volkswagen and other auto giants have already begun selling tens of thousands of electric cars. Biden’s announcement is
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              unequivocally good for Tesla
             </a>
             , and could also help electric vehicle start-ups like Rivian and Lucid Motors get a jump on more established competition.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              But automakers’ current preoccupation is shortages.
             </span>
             New car production, of all kinds, is hampered by
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              scarcity in key components
             </a>
             like semiconductors, meaning that supply can’t keep up with demand as people get out again but are wary of crowds. That has led to
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              “insane” market conditions
             </a>
             for new and used cars alike, somewhat thwarting the efforts to push car buyers away from internal combustion engines. For now, most road trips are happening in gas guzzlers.
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             “It’s like if somebody is running the 100 meters and they have a weight around their ankles. That is not a fair judge of their speed.”
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              — Bob Costas, who spent 24 years as NBC’s prime-time Olympics host before leaving the network in 2017, on the Tokyo Olympics’
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
               relatively low television ratings
              </a>
             </span>
             <span style="font-style:italic;font-size:inherit">
              .
             </span>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Surveillance, safety and privacy at Apple
            </h2>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Apple launched a sophisticated system yesterday to detect whether an iPhone user is storing images of child sexual abuse, or if a child under 13 is sending or receiving sexual imagery by text. The Times and others
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              have shown
             </a>
             that tech companies have failed to police their platforms for child exploitation.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Some are concerned about Apple’s methods
             </span>
             ,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              writes The Times’s Jack Nicas
             </a>
             . Cybersecurity experts say that the tools Apple is using to monitor sexual abuse images tips its hand that the company has more powerful surveillance tech than it has previously claimed. In the future, law enforcement and governments might compel Apple to use those tools in other ways.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Apple says that it has put in guardrails to protect privacy, and that the tech allows it only to see images flagged as child pornography. Apple’s attempt to police what few would defend highlights the thin line that tech companies walk between public safety and customer privacy concerns.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “I don’t particularly want to be on the side of child porn and I’m not a terrorist,”
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              said Matthew Green
             </a>
             , who teaches cryptography at Johns Hopkins. “But the problem is that encryption is a powerful tool that provides privacy, and you can’t really have strong privacy while also surveilling every image anyone sends.”
            </p>
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                <img class="css-1rg59gv e1e3sevz0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2021%252F02%252F18%252Fbusiness%252Fdealbook-icon-glasses-pixels%252Fdealbook-icon-glasses-pixels-articleLarge-v10.gif/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1mBy2G:VqPCwk13-Pn-mkTjqGyZoO3fHdWhVUkvQDWgPFN6Kso" style="display:block;width:100%;height:auto;padding-bottom:25px;padding-top:10px"/>
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            <h2 class="css-12n1aic el2acgh0" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Crypto shows its growing clout
            </h2>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The S.E.C.’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Gary Gensler
             </a>
             , Senator
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Elizabeth Warren
             </a>
             and others sounded off this week on the need for stricter regulation of crypto, giving an impression of an industry under siege.
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            <p style="color:#000;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Cracking down on crypto also came up in negotiations over the infrastructure bill, which included a provision to raise $30 billion in taxes on crypto transactions. But on that front, the industry’s
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              nascent lobby
             </a>
             rallied to press senators for an amendment to clarify the tax provision, showing the lobby’s growing power.
            </p>
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              Heavyweights chimed in.
             </span>
             The venture capitalists at Andreessen Horowitz wrote
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              to Senate leaders
             </a>
             , calling the tax provision “overly broad” and suggesting a lawsuit looms if the language isn’t changed. Brian Armstrong, the C.E.O. of the crypto exchange Coinbase
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              protested in a Twitter thread
             </a>
             . Lobbyists worked behind the scenes with a bipartisan group of senators on
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              an amendment
             </a>
             set to be considered before the bill goes to a vote.
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             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit;font-family:arial,sans-serif">
              This is a preview of bigger battles.
             </span>
             In addition to Gensler and Warren, the leaders of the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              House Financial Services Committee
             </a>
             and the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              Senate Banking Committee
             </a>
             have called for sweeping new rules and tougher enforcement. Representative Donald Beyer, Democrat of Virginia, recently introduced
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a comprehensive bill
             </a>
             on digital assets that industry groups told DealBook they haven’t had time to analyze yet because the infrastructure fight is more pressing. After mounting a resistance to one provision in a 2,700-page bill, more serious battles await, and the true strength of the crypto lobby will be tested.
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               Richard Trumka, a former coal miner who led the influential A.F.L.-C.I.O. labor union for the past 12 years, died at 72. (
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              Correction: In yesterday’s newsletter, we incorrectly described the purview of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. In addition to nationally chartered banks, the agency oversees federal savings associations, not credit unions.
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