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   DealBook: Dimon on “peak private credit”
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             July 16, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. I attended a live taping of the “Acquired” podcast at Radio City Music Hall last night, where Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase was quizzed about his remarkable history at the banking giant. But what you should pay attention to are the comments Dimon made about the stock market — “asset prices are rather high,” he said — and his concerns about private credit. More on that below.
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          We’re also taking a look at what yesterday’s data on consumer prices means for the Fed, at Zohran Mamdani’s meeting with top New York C.E.O.s and at the crypto industry’s continued relief from Washington. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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             The private-credit industry may have seen its best days, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase warned.
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            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Al Drago for The New York Times
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        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          JPMorgan’s private-credit worries
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          JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., Jamie Dimon, has been fairly consistently bearish when it comes to private credit, the nontraditional and largely unregulated lending business that has been among Wall Street’s hottest activities in recent years.
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          He kept up that concern yesterday, warning that such lending might be set for a decline. But he wouldn’t completely shut the door on buying a provider of such loans as part of an effort to get back into the sector.
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          “You may have seen peak private credit,”
         </span>
         <span>
          Dimon told analysts on JPMorgan’s earnings call with analysts yesterday, with the caveat, “I don’t know that.” When pressed by Mike Mayo, a banking analyst at Wells Fargo, he added: “Well, I’ve mentioned that credit spreads are very low. It’s grown dramatically over time, and you have to pay up a lot for it.”
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          In other words, private-credit firms are currently accepting relatively little return in exchange for taking on risk, and the industry has grown significantly in the past several years. At a taping of the “Acquired” podcast at Radio City Music Hall later in the day, Dimon called private credit “one place that people worry has unknown leverage.”
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          That said, Dimon isn’t saying no to participating in private credit.
         </span>
         <span>
          He told Mayo that while buying a private lender wasn’t a priority, he’d consider it “for the right people at the right price.”
         </span>
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         <span>
          In some ways, JPMorgan is more than toying with the idea of buying its way back into a business it stepped back from in 2015. It announced in February that it was increasing its allocation to private lending to $50 billion, up from $10 billion.
         </span>
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         <span>
          The move was born in part out of Dimon’s worry that the bank was losing out on business to rivals,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The Wall Street Journal reports
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          — though JPMorgan is still being cautious. “We are remaining disciplined,” Troy Rohrbaugh, a co-head of JPMorgan’s commercial and investment bank, told The Journal.
         </span>
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
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          China moves to restrict exports related to electric-vehicle batteries.
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         <span>
          Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce said yesterday that it would now
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          require licenses
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          for eight key manufacturing technologies to be transferred out of the country. The plan could make it harder for Chinese makers of electric cars to set up factories overseas and may cement China’s already dominant role in E.V. production. In other E.V. news,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Tesla’s top North American sales executive
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          has left.
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           <td height="20">
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        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The White House is said to be planning a move to let 401(k)s invest in private equity.
         </span>
         <span>
          President Trump is expected to sign an executive order that would let the retirement plans hold alternative assets, according to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Bloomberg
         </a>
         <span>
          and
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          The Wall Street Journal
         </a>
         <span>
          . Such a move could give the $12.5 trillion market for 401(k)s access to investments that promise higher returns — but also have higher risk.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Apple and HBO Max lead the Emmys pack.
         </span>
         <span>
          “Severance,” the dystopian workplace drama that runs on Apple TV+, received the
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          most nominations
         </a>
         <span>
          of any series this year, with 27; it’s good news for the streaming service, which has amassed critical recognition (though not viewers). HBO Max received the most nods overall, with 142 for series including “The White Lotus” and “The Penguin.”
         </span>
        </p>
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            <div style="width:100%;text-align:center;line-height:0">
             <img alt="Ad" border="0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fliveintent.newyorktimesinfo.com%252Fimp%253Fs%253D1053700%2526li%253DDK%2526m%253Ddfbfebeec3e396a6cb1a8b032a80246c%2526p%253DDK_20250716%2526stpe%253Ddefault/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZsaXZlaW50ZW50LiIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTI2Njg2MjMuNDUzMDQ4fQ:1uc1Al:HdhKiZBbGbOQZFfC-t6r440Xrv011N8JSZpneIhLf_Y" style="max-width:96px;margin-bottom:7px"/>
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            <span style="text-align:center">
             <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin:0 auto">
              <tbody>
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                <td style="line-height:0;font-size:0">
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           <td height="20">
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          A cloudy economic crystal ball
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          There was plenty to like and hate in yesterday’s Consumer Price Index report. President Trump’s tariffs are
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          beginning to push up prices
         </a>
         <span>
          in some product categories, but overall there were few surprises.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “I’m not sure it necessarily adds to the Fed rate cut debate,”
         </span>
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
         </span>
         <span>
          Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, told DealBook. “You can pull stats out of here to support whichever camp you’re in,” she added.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Nevertheless, the market has been left to wonder when the Fed, which has been keeping its eye on the trade war, will begin lowering borrowing costs. The math for that remains fuzzy, given the uncertain path ahead for tariffs and the president’s ongoing pressure on the central bank, Danielle Kaye and Bernhard Warner write.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The latest:
         </span>
         <span>
          The futures market still foresees a quarter-point rate cut in September, not this month. But there’s slightly less confidence in that, with the odds that the Fed will act falling to 58 percent, from 65 percent on Monday.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Trump, however, wants much bolder action: Yesterday, he called on the central bank to cut rates by a whopping
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          three percentage points
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          C.P.I. recap:
         </span>
         <span>
          Inflation in June rose 2.7 percent from a year ago, its
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          fastest pace since February
         </a>
         <span>
          and slightly above expectations. “Core” prices, which exclude often volatile food and energy, rose 2.9 percent, largely in line with economists’ forecasts. Month on month, C.P.I. rose 0.3 percent, up from 0.1 percent in May; core prices rose 0.2 percent.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Other notable data points:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Prices rose for many goods exposed to tariffs, including household furnishings, apparel and especially appliances.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                But prices for new and used cars fell, which could bolster arguments from economists who are playing down tariffs’ effect on consumers.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Airfares and hotel costs fell last month, suggesting consumers are beginning to pull back on discretionary services — or, put another way, on
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                having fun
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                — with potentially big consequences. “If you start to get demand destruction there, there’s a greater risk of more widespread job losses,” Mike Reid, a senior U.S. economist at RBC, told DealBook.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          That could heap more pressure on Jay Powell, the Fed chair.
         </span>
         <span>
          Trump has blasted him for not cutting rates and has
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          encouraged him to resign
         </a>
         <span>
          as he seeks more dovish candidates to preside over the central bank.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But yesterday Powell gained a notable defender:
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Jamie Dimon
         </a>
         <span>
          , the C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase. “Playing around with the Fed can often have adverse consequences — the absolute opposite of what you might be hoping for,” Dimon told reporters after his bank’s earnings call.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          On deck:
         </span>
         <span>
          A key measure of producer prices in June will be released today, offering another glimpse at inflationary pressures. That will be followed by the publication of the Fed’s Beige Book, which gives a regional view of how the economy is faring.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
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           </td>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Mamdani meets the C.E.O.s
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Anticipation was high for
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Zohran Mamdani’s meeting yesterday
         </a>
         <span>
          with members of the Partnership for New York City, a group representing many of the city’s top business leaders.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The big question: Could Mamdani, a democratic socialist and the Democratic nominee for mayor, convince the group of 150 executives who attended that they shouldn’t fear his potential election?
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Mamdani said he would “discourage” the term “globalize the intifada,”
         </span>
         <span>
          The Times reports, according to three people familiar with his comments. He had drawn criticism for previous refusals to condemn the phrase, a rallying cry for some opponents of the war in Gaza but seen by some as a call to violence against Jews.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Mamdani told the group that while many people used the term to express solidarity with Palestinians, he recognized that some New Yorkers saw a darker meaning to it and that he himself wouldn’t use it, The Times reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What attendees wanted to know:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Jeff Blau of Related, the real estate giant, asked whether Mamdani’s policies would drive private companies out of New York.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Rob Speyer of Tishman Speyer, the real estate firm where the meeting was held, asked whether Mamdani’s plan to raise taxes would prompt the wealthy to leave the city.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Blair Effron of Centerview Partners, the investment bank, asked how Mamdani, a political operative who was elected to the New York State Assembly in 2020, would manage running New York,
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                according to The Wall Street Journal
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                .
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Mamdani was asked whether he’d keep Jessica Tisch, the well-regarded police commissioner, in her role, according to The Journal.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Did Mamdani succeed?
         </span>
         <span>
          Kathy Wylde, the Partnership’s C.E.O., described her members to The Times as largely “guarded” but said that most “most recognized that he’s a smart young man and a good communicator and the proof will be in the pudding.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But Jon Henes, the founder of C Street Advisory Group, a communications consulting firm, said, “Today’s meeting made it clear to me that I need to do everything in my power to make sure Zohran Mamdani does not become mayor of New York City.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What’s next:
         </span>
         <span>
          Mamdani is scheduled to meet with Partnership members today to focus on the tech industry’s concerns. And the Partnership is hosting a breakfast with Mayor Eric Adams tomorrow.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
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           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="Shayne Coplan, the founder and C.E.O. of Polymarket, speaking while wearing a microphone." class="css-xsf469" height="333" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F07%252F16%252Fmultimedia%252F16db-newsletter-polymarket-wjpb%252F16db-newsletter-polymarket-wjpb-jumbo.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTI2Njg2MjMuNDUzMzMwM30:1uc1Al:Li2mwydGm57i5MEBMtEohfWtXQgUS_SvV623mEW0a7U" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:0;line-height:0" width="500"/>
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center;width:100%;padding-top:6px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:12px">
            <span class="css-1wuwhda" style="width:83%;max-width:500px;display:inline-block;text-align:left">
             <span class="css-1hnedf7" style="color:#666;font:normal 12px georgia,serif">
              “We’ve been cleared of any wrongdoing,” Shayne Coplan, the founder of Polymarket, said of the end of federal investigations into his prediction market.
             </span>
             <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em;padding-left:5px">
              Richard Drew/Associated Press
             </span>
            </span>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          Another reprieve for crypto from Washington
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The crypto industry’s fortunes have soared since the re-election of President Trump, who promised to reverse his predecessor’s crackdown on digital currencies.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The latest example of that arrived yesterday, when Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, confirmed that it no longer faced federal investigations.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          What happened:
         </span>
         <span>
          Polymarket received a letter this month from federal prosecutors in Manhattan saying that they had
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          closed their inquiry
         </a>
         <span>
          into whether the company had allowed U.S. users to place bets, in violation of a federal settlement, The Times reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also told Polymarket it had wrapped up its own investigation into the company.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “I’m happy to announce that this chapter of the story is over,”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Shayne Coplan
         </a>
         <span>
          , Polymarket’s founder and C.E.O., wrote on X. “After cooperating and engaging, we’ve been cleared of any wrongdoing. Justice prevailed.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          It’s the latest sign of a changed environment for the industry.
         </span>
         <span>
          During the Biden administration, industry executives warned that regulators seemed intent on all but outlawing their business via a series of criminal charges and civil lawsuits.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          That included a raid in November on the home of Coplan, who
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          called the move
         </a>
         <span>
          “a last-ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          in the name of
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          eliminating “regulatory overreach.”
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          President Trump has also endorsed three bills, backed by crypto companies, to formalize regulations for the industry — and helped
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          broker an agreement in the House
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          yesterday to help that legislation pass.
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          raised $52 million
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          It’s a significant haul that the organization, which poured millions into helping crypto-friendly candidates win in November, plans to
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             THE SPEED READ
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Thinking Machines Lab
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , the artificial intelligence start-up founded by the former OpenAI executive Mira Murati, raised $2 billion in new funding at a $12 billion valuation from investors including Andreessen Horowitz and Nvidia. (Reuters)
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                The investment firm Aquarian Holdings is said to be
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                near a deal to buy Brighthouse
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               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , one of the largest U.S. providers of annuities and life insurance. (WSJ)
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                Apple announced a $500 million deal to
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                buy rare-earth materials from MP Materials
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                , a U.S. producer that recently sold a stake to the Pentagon. (Bloomberg)
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                Columbia University announced more policy changes
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                to address antisemitism on campus before a potential settlement with the Trump administration. (NYT)
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          Best of the rest
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                France may cut two public holidays
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                to stave off a budget crisis. (NYT)
               </span>
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                “The $11,700,824 Contract That
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                Plunged the NFL Into Chaos
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                ” (WSJ)
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