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   DealBook: The economics of conflict
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   Also, A.I. and defense deakmaking in Paris.
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             June 16, 2025
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          Good morning. Andrew here. Greetings from Cannes, France, where the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity, the advertising industry’s biggest gathering, kicks off today. The A.I. debate is a huge issue, as
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          we explained on Saturday
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          .
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          There’s another topic that’s being discussed here. The U.S. government is considering approval for the merger of Interpublic and Omnicom — but only if the Madison Avenue giants pledge
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         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          not to engage in political boycotting of any particular platforms
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          when they consider buying ad space for their clients.
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          The Trump administration argues such boycotts are a restraint of trade and, perhaps, on free speech. In the age of the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, which gave companies power to influence politics — and was supported by Republicans — is it ironic to now see the administration taking the opposite approach?
         </span>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
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          Here’s a thought experiment: A client hires an agency, which genuinely believes the client shouldn’t advertise on a specific website because it presents a potential risk to that brand’s safety or public image. This new provision, depending on how it’s interpreted, could make it near impossible for an agency to live up to that professional obligation.
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          If you were this firm’s client, would you remain one? Please
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          let me know your thoughts
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          . (Was this newsletter forwarded to you?
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          Sign up here.
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          )
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             Volatility has returned to the global oil market as the Israel-Iran attacks continue.
            </span>
            <span style="margin:0;font:11px/11px georgia,serif;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
             Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
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          Oil in focus
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         <span>
          A sense of calm has returned to global markets even as Israel and Iran
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          clashed for a fourth day
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         <span>
          . Israeli missile strikes are increasingly targeting
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Iran’s oil and gas facilities
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          , including those at South Pars, a major gas field.
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at around $73.60 a barrel this morning. That’s up roughly 10 percent over the past five days, but Brent traded as high as $78 this weekend.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Markets remain worried about the fighting’s hit to companies and consumers.
         </span>
         <span>
          The turmoil could translate to
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a 20-cent-per-gallon jump
         </a>
         <span>
          in gasoline prices in the United States just as the summer peak-driving season gets underway, analysts say.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          With a string of central bank meetings this week — including the Fed’s on Tuesday and Wednesday — policymakers are likely to field plenty of questions about how a volatile energy market could affect inflation and interest rate forecasts.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          How bad can it get?
         </span>
         <span>
          Michael Hsueh, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a research note on Friday that a full disruption of Iranian oil would push Brent crude above $120 a barrel.
         </span>
        </p>
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           </td>
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
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         </tbody>
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        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Yet traders don’t appear to be betting on the worst-case scenario
         </span>
         <span>
          , even with no letup to the fighting seemingly in sight. Yesterday’s scheduled talks between Tehran and Washington on the future of Iran’s nuclear program were also
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          called off
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          S&amp;P 500 futures are pointing to a positive open, and other traditional safe-haven investments — such as the dollar and gold — have fallen. That said, there has been a slight sell-off in long-dated Treasury notes and bonds, probably because of concerns about the Israel-Iran fighting leading to higher inflation.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The conflict is likely to be a focus at this week’s Group of 7 meeting,
         </span>
         <span>
          along with the U.S. trade battles. The Trump administration has a vested interest in seeing Israel and Iran de-escalate to keep a lid on energy prices.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “We maintain our view that this is likely to remain a short-lived conflict, as further escalation risks spiraling beyond the control of key stakeholders,” Janiv Shah, an oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, an independent research and advisory firm, wrote in a research note this morning. Rystad sees Brent holding below $80 a barrel.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
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           <h3 style="color:#000;font:700 17px/25px arial,sans-serif;margin:5px 0 30px 0;letter-spacing:.2px">
            <span>
             HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
            </span>
           </h3>
          </td>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          More details emerge about the federal government’s “golden share” in U.S. Steel.
         </span>
         <span>
          A national security pact signed by U.S. Steel and its Japanese buyer, Nippon Steel, gives the Trump administration
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          a noneconomic share in Class G preferred stock
         </a>
         <span>
          — as in gold. It gives the government veto power over nearly a dozen activities by U.S. Steel, including transferring jobs outside the U.S. and idling plants. The move,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          as we’ve written
         </a>
         <span>
          , could reshape foreign investment in the country.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The Trump administration reportedly weighs expanding its travel ban.
         </span>
         <span>
          The move would put full or partial travel restrictions on
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          visitors from 36 countries
         </a>
         <span>
          — up from a dozen today — if the countries fail to step up certain internal security measures, Reuters reports. (The proposed additions are mostly in Africa.) The deliberations comes as the administration increases its crackdown on immigration, which could see net immigration fall
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          for the first time in 50 years
         </a>
         <span>
          this year, denting economic growth and raising inflation.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Leonard Lauder dies at 92.
         </span>
         <span>
          The billionaire who with his mother built a major cosmetics empire and became an influential philanthropist and art collector,
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          died Saturday
         </a>
         <span>
          at his home in Manhattan, the Estée Lauder Companies said. His legacy lives on through his many donations of art masterpieces to top museums — and in economics: He coined
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the Lipstick Index
         </a>
         <span>
          , based on the idea that lipstick sales rise when the economy sours.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td height="10">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td height="8" style="background-color:#000;font-size:0;line-height:0" width="100%">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td height="20">
           </td>
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         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          In Paris, deal makers shift from A.I. to defense
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Today is the start of the Paris Air Show, the biennial event that’s a
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          showcase for defense deals
         </a>
         <span>
          — something even more important as Israel and Iran trade their biggest firepower in decades and NATO’s trans-Atlantic bond
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          shows strain
         </a>
         <span>
          ahead of the organization’s summit in the Netherlands next week.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          It also comes on the heels of the VivaTech start-up conference and trade show. Many investors and foreign officials say they plan to attend both, on the hunt for new business alliances. Driving that is a turn away from the U.S. under President Trump, but not America’s scientists, whom they hope to hire, Vivienne Walt reports.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          “We are too dependent on the U.S.,”
         </span>
         <span>
          said Mélanie Joly, Canada’s innovation, science and industry minister, who is in Paris for VivaTech and the air show. She told DealBook she had a packed schedule of meetings, geared to expanding European business ties for Canada’s tech and military complex: “We’re seeing the emergence of new economic blocs.”
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          The stakes are huge.
         </span>
         <span>
          The richest pick is
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          the roughly €800 billion
         </a>
         <span>
          ($924 billion) ReArm Europe investment plan for upgrading Europe’s militaries, which Brussels announced in March after Trump flirted with ending Ukraine’s war support.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          “We want to make sure we have access to that market,” said Joly, adding that Canada would seek to join ReArm Europe as an associate member.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="width:100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="text-align:center">
            <img alt="A line chart compares the year-to-date performance for European aerospace and defense stocks with the S&amp;P 500." class="css-xsf469" height="535" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2025%252F06%252F16%252Fbusiness%252Fdb16-chart%252Fdb16-chart-jumbo.png/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NTAwNzU0ODguMjU4OTM0NX0:1uR8a0:ACWmwzSXzWqzrQzOVsGuTdmc6nKDeECLzLltwWy3Oqs" style="display:inline-block;width:83%;max-width:500px;height:auto;padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:20px;line-height:0" width="500"/>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Another war continues for talent.
         </span>
         <span>
          Top French research institutions, which are courting American researchers hit by Trump’s cuts, set up large stands at VivaTech. The European Union announced last month a €500 million “Choose Europe for Science” fund to help.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Canada also wants American researchers, with Joly telling DealBook the country has drawn up plans to recruit as many as 1,000.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          A.I. will be a focus at the Paris Air Show, as it was at VivaTech.
         </span>
         <span>
          Organizers of the tech gathering
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          said that about 3,600 investors
         </a>
         <span>
          and 4,000 start-ups participated, the bulk of which was focused on artificial intelligence.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          But during one panel discussion, some wondered about the out-of-whack economics behind A.I. The technology “is world-changing, but if you look at the computing power being put in place, we are not there yet,”
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          Julien Meyfret
         </a>
         <span>
          , a French investment consultant, told DealBook.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Those concerns don’t appear to have dampened enthusiasm for A.I. last week —
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          or this week
         </a>
         <span>
          .
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                Boeing has
               </span>
               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                trimmed slightly its 20-year projection
               </a>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                of demand for new aircraft, but still expects air travel to increase by roughly 40 percent by the end of 2030.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
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           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          “I’m sure it would have been cheaper to pay that fee, you know?”
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          — Derek Lowe, a medicinal chemist. In Science magazine, Lowe wrote about Novo Nordisk having
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-style:italic">
          failed to pay annual maintenance fees
         </a>
         <span style="font-style:italic">
          for years on its Canadian patent on semaglutide, the medication behind Ozempic and Wegovy. (The yearly fee, with penalties, rose to $450 in 2019.) Novo Nordisk has since lost the patent for semaglutide in Canada, one of the drug’s largest markets worldwide.
         </span>
        </p>
        <table width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td class="css-36ugzx" style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc;padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
        <h2 class="css-10nzuqq" style="color:#000;font:700 25px/32px arial,sans-serif;margin:0 0 10px">
         <span>
          How Trump Inc. got paid before taking power
         </span>
        </h2>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          As questions continue to arise about how President Trump and his allies are making money from his presidency, recent
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          government
         </a>
         <span>
         </span>
         <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline">
          filings
         </a>
         <span>
          — published late last week without much fanfare — shed light on how they made money before Trump returned to office.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Here are some of the highlights from the disclosures, which cover last year.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Crypto was a big deal
         </span>
         <span>
          even before the president and his family pushed even more deeply into digital currencies this year. Trump’s stake in World Liberty Financial, a crypto company he announced last year, earned about $57 million in 2024, making it one of the family’s most lucrative investments. A licensing deal involving so-called NFT collectibles earned another $1.2 million.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          All told, Trump reported employment-related assets worth at least $1.4 billion and revenue of at least $622 million.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span>
          Trump and his family are poised to earn much more than that from crypto, an industry they have embraced wholeheartedly. World Liberty has since sold more than a half-billion dollars worth of its coin, with many of the proceeds going to the family. Trump himself was involved in the $TRUMP meme coin and holds a stake which, on paper, may be worth billions.
         </span>
        </p>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          Many eventual administration officials benefited from being in Trump’s orbit:
         </span>
        </p>
        <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
         <table>
          <tbody>
           <tr>
            <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
             <ul class="css-1dtd48z" style="color:#000;font:20px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px;list-style-type:square;margin-bottom:10px">
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Dan Scavino
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , a longtime aide who is now a top F.B.I. official, earned $866,000 in consulting fees from Trump Media &amp; Technology Group, the president’s social media company; he also earned more than $1 million in capital gains from a stake in the business. Scavino also took home $76,537 from Elon Musk’s X.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Kevin Hassett
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , the director of the National Economic Council, earned $192,040 from Affinity Partners, a $3 billion investment firm run by Jared Kushner, one of Trump’s sons-in-law and a former White House official.
               </span>
              </li>
              <li style="margin:0 0 10px 0;line-height:27.5px">
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                David Warrington
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , the White House Counsel, and
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle;font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
                Gary Lawkowski
               </span>
               <span style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                , a deputy, worked at the law firm founded by Harmeet Dhillon, who is now assistant attorney general.
               </span>
              </li>
             </ul>
            </td>
           </tr>
          </tbody>
         </table>
        </div>
        <p style="font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;color:#333;margin:0 0 15px">
         <span style="font-weight:700;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#000">
          And then there’s Vice President JD Vance.
         </span>
         <span>
          His disclosure revealed that he earned between $100,000 and $1 million from Narya, a venture capital firm he founded in 2020 with backing from the longtime Republican donor Peter Thiel. (Other investors in Narya include Eric Schmidt, the former Google C.E.O., and Marc Andreessen, the venture capital magnate.)
         </span>
        </p>
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             THE SPEED READ
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                Tech M.&amp;.A. — especially involving artificial intelligence —
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               <a class="css-sdwaa1" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;vertical-align:middle">
                dominated global deal-making
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                in the first five months of the year. (Reuters)
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                Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc has made
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                a bid to acquire Santos
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                , valuing the Australian producer of oil and natural gas at $18.7 billion in one of the sector’s biggest deals of the year. (WSJ)
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                “
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                Byron Allen Reaches Settlement With McDonald’s
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                In Lawsuit Claiming Racial Bias In Advertising” (Deadline)
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                divided Republicans and baffled some in the mortgage finance industry
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                . (Politico)
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          Best of the rest
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                Democratic Party power brokers, including Kamala Harris and the Clintons, flocked to the Hamptons to celebrate
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                the wedding of Huma Abedin, the longtime Hillary Clinton aide, and Alex Soros
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                , the scion of the Soros financial and philanthropic empire. (NYT)
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                What the
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                rise and fall of the Berkshire Mall
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                , once the largest taxpayer in its New England community, says about the future of deteriorating retail giants in rural America. (NYT)
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