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   Interest rate decisions and the busy week ahead |
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               👋 Hi Sarah. Here’s what you need to know for the week ahead and what you might've missed last week.
              </p>
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               Grand Central
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               It’s going to be a hustle and bustle week for interest rate decisions, with four big central banks set to make announcements.
              </p>
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                        🔍 The focus this week: Interest rate decisions
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="6az05" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        📆 The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are all set to announce interest rate decisions this week. And not one of them has an easy call to make. That’s because they’re weighing their next move against a tricky backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="b2kia" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         Let’s start with the Fed.
                        </b>
                        The US central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged at its first meeting of 2026 after delivering three consecutive rate cuts late last year. Traders widely expect it to sit tight again this week – and it’s not terribly hard to see why.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="a7h2p" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        See, on the one hand, the labor market’s been cooling. The economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February, marking the third drop in payrolls in five months. That kind of slowdown could give the Fed reason to cut its key lending rate and deliver a bit of lift to the economy. But on the other hand, inflation remains stubbornly high. Fresh data last week showed consumer prices rose 2.4% in February – unquestionably quicker than the Fed’s 2% target. And that was before this month’s surge in energy prices.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="cldt6" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        So it makes sense that traders have dialed back their expectations for rate cuts this year. They’ll be watching closely on Wednesday when the Fed releases its statement and its policymaker-by-policymaker “dot plot” of interest rate projections.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="84qnr" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        <b>
                         Across the pond,
                        </b>
                        traders expect the BoE and ECB to also stay put when they meet on Thursday. But they’re less sure about how things might go after that. Just two weeks ago, they were betting that the ECB would keep borrowing costs flat all year. But now, markets are pricing in at least one rate
                        <i>
                         hike
                        </i>
                        – which would mark the official end of the Bank’s rate-cutting spree.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="7k06a" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The reason is simple: Europe relies heavily on imported oil and natural gas, so any increase in energy costs tends to feed more quickly into consumer prices. And policymakers will want to try to knock those price pressures down before they get too raucous.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="7mcpi" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px;">
                        The UK’s in a similar spot, so markets have changed their thinking there, too. A couple of weeks ago, they were pricing in two rate cuts for 2026, but now: none.
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="25ekg" style="font-size: 16px; line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 16px; margin: 0;">
                        <b>
                         And then there’s the BoJ.
                        </b>
                        It’s been the outlier among major central banks: while others lowered rates, it’s been pushing them higher. Now, the BoJ’s expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged this week, too – but traders will be listening closely for any hint that it might pick up the pace of its rate hikes. After all, Japan imports almost all of its energy and much of its food – meaning turmoil in energy markets, combined with prolonged weakness in the yen, could quickly translate into faster inflation.
                       </p>
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                        📅 On the calendar
                       </p>
                       <ul style="padding: 0; margin: 0; list-style-type: disc; margin-left: 19px;">
                        <li data-block-key="gn5an" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Monday:
                         </b>
                         China industrial production and retail sales (February), US industrial production (February).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="91dk2" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Tuesday:
                         </b>
                         Eurozone economic sentiment (March).
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="7sa5s" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Wednesday:
                         </b>
                         Japan trade balance (February), US producer price index (February), US factory orders (January), Fed interest rate announcement.
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         Micron Technology.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="d1rlc" style="line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 8px; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif;">
                         <b>
                          Thursday:
                         </b>
                         BoJ interest rate announcement, BoE interest rate announcement, ECB interest rate announcement, UK labor market report (February).
                         <b>
                          Earnings:
                         </b>
                         FedEx, Accenture.
                        </li>
                        <li data-block-key="bro0j" style="line-height: 1.5; color: #283444; color: rgba(40, 52, 68, 1); font-size: 16px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, arial, -apple-system, sans-serif; margin-bottom: 0;">
                         <b>
                          Friday:
                         </b>
                         China loan prime rate announcements, eurozone trade balance (January).
                        </li>
                       </ul>
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                        👀 What you might’ve missed last week
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                         🌐 The World
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                        The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from its members’ emergency reserves – the biggest coordinated draw ever – as policymakers scrambled to calm oil markets rattled by the war in the Middle East and the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz shipping channel. Oil prices briefly dipped after the announcement, but market watchers say the real test will be speed: the supply gap from disrupted flows could still dwarf what reserves can replace.
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                        🌎
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                         North America
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                        US inflation held steady in February as expected, with consumer prices up 2.4% from a year earlier and core inflation – which strips out food and energy – up 2.5%. Markets mostly shrugged: the data tracks prices before the latest Middle East tensions pushed oil, food, and shipping costs higher.
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                        🌍
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                         Europe/Middle East
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                        Saudi Aramco reported a 5% drop in annual profit, but the world’s biggest oil company is still generating hefty cash flows and channeling them back to shareholders – mostly the Saudi government, which owns 98% of the firm. Aramco lifted its quarterly dividend to $22 billion and unveiled its first share buyback, worth $3 billion. And with the Strait of Hormuz virtually shut, the oil company said it could reroute shipments through the Red Sea and restore roughly 70% of its exports within days, helping ease supply worries.
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                        🌏
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                         Asia
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                        TSMC’s latest sales figures show the AI boom is still in full swing. The world’s biggest contract chipmaker – which produces advanced processors for Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom – said revenue for January and February jumped 30% year over year to more than $22 billion, a strong sign that tech firms are still racing to build AI infrastructure.
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                    Your Finimize Analyst team
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