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   AI socialism in beta
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   Plus: Keyhole economics.
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30px;vertical-align:middle;width:66.6667%;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000">
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               Thursday, October 2, 2025
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               Sponsored by
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              <span style="color:#888888">
               Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP
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              <span style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:20px">
               Good morning, Quartz readers! It’s Shannon Carroll with the Daily Brief. Today, ADP finds job losses where gains were expected, the shutdown stretches into a second day, Karl Marx makes a tech-world cameo, and the barefoot office trend toes the line.
              </span>
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              <span style="color:#168DD9;font-size:24px">
               HERE'S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
              </span>
             </h2>
            </td>
           </tr>
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             <div>
              <strong style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:20px">
               When will the U.S. government reopen?
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:20px">
               Prediction markets think the shutdown could last weeks, not days, which would put this closure up against the longest and most costly ones
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="in U.S. history." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;background-color:#FFF;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px;" target="_blank">
               in U.S. 
history.
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
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            <td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 20px;line-height:1.5;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
             <div>
              <strong style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:20px">
               Investors left wondering about the shutdown’s impact on the S&amp;P.
              </strong>
              <span style="background-color:#FFFFFF;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;color:#000000;font-size:20px">
               Historically, markets have been resilient amid closures — but the longer the shutdown goes on, the greater the
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="impact on stocks." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;background-color:#FFF;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:20px;" target="_blank">
               impact on stocks.
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
           </tr>
           <tr style="padding-top:10px;padding-bottom:10px">
            <td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 20px;line-height:1.5;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
             <div>
              <strong style="font-size:20px;color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               The U.S. government is running on half-staff.
              </strong>
              <span style="font-size:20px;color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Education, health, and science
agencies are furloughing thousands, while critical services such as Medicare, TSA, border enforcement, and more
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="will continue." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;font-size:20px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;" target="_blank">
               will continue.
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
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            <td class="td100" colspan="6" style="width:100%;padding:10px 
20px;line-height:1.5;vertical-align:top;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;color:#000000;mso-line-height-rule:exactly">
             <div>
              <strong style="font-size:20px;color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               The furlough may turn into a firing.
              </strong>
              <span style="font-size:20px;color:#000000;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:#FFFFFF">
               Trump has floated large-scale dismissals of federal employees — especially those he sees as opponents — while budget officials 
start axing projects
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="in Democratic-led states." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;font-size:20px;font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;background-color:#FFF;" target="_blank">
               in Democratic-led states.
              </a>
             </div>
            </td>
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                  Sponsored
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               WAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE
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               Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Karl Marx walk into a bar. One orders universal basic income (UBI), one orders socialism, and one mutters, “I told you so.” That’s the setup for the AI economy, where the richest men alive are suddenly workshopping Marxist punchlines. Geoffrey Hinton, the “Godfather of AI,” answers a question about fairness with a deadpan “Socialism.” Altman talks about handing out monthly stipends. Musk has said we won’t have a choice about UBI. Silicon Valley’s moguls are trying on 
the language of redistribution because their inventions may be too efficient at making everyone expendable.
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               The trouble is that the math doesn’t land. A bare-bones UBI of $10,000 a year would swallow about $3 trillion annually — roughly three-quarters of the federal budget — while doing little to offset the collapse of white-collar incomes. According to Goldman Sachs, up to 7% of the workforce could be displaced, mostly programmers, auditors, and paralegals. The top 10% of U.S. 
earners, many in those very jobs, now account for nearly half of all spending. Hollow them out and you don’t just hit households — you hit the entire circulation of demand.
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              <span style="font-size: 20px">
               And even if the economics get penciled out, the politics don’t. A Congress that just passed Trump’s $1.1 trillion corporate tax break isn’t about to seize Silicon Valley’s AI windfall. MIT’s Daron Acemoglu dismissed UBI as “bread and circuses”: a shiny distraction while deeper inequality festers. And that means 
universal basic income risks looking less like universal security and more like a political placebo: a capitalist system so efficient it starts producing “useless people” and a class of billionaires nervously proposing checks they know will never clear.
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Quartz’s Niamh Rowe has more on Marx’s prophecy getting an AI upgrade." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;font-size:20px;" target="_blank">
               Quartz’s Niamh Rowe has more on Marx’s prophecy getting an AI upgrade.
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               LAID OFF THE RECORD
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               America’s job market is having a Where’s Waldo moment: The pink slips are visible, but the official scorekeeper is missing. Wednesday’s ADP data says private employers cut 32,000 jobs last month — the steepest drop in more than two years — just as Washington’s government shutdown ensures the Bureau of Labor Statistics won’t deliver its usual payrolls report. For now, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street are left trying to piece together the labor market like a jigsaw puzzle with half the pieces 
missing.
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               The ADP data wasn’t pretty. Losses stretched across leisure, finance, construction, and manufacturing, with only health care and education posting gains. Economists had actually expected adds of 45,000 — meaning the surprise gap is wide enough to drive a moving truck through. Even August’s numbers got revised downward, flipping from a reported 54,000 increase to a net loss of 3,000.
              </span>
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               Investors would normally wait 
for the BLS to open the blinds. Instead, they’re left with what UBS’ Paul Donovan called “a keyhole view” of the economy. The shutdown has turned the government’s statistical backbone into a one-man band — deputy commissioner William Wiatrowski is literally the only employee still at the agency after Trump fired the last chief and pulled his nominee, EJ Antoni. That leaves the world’s biggest economy peering through a keyhole instead of opening the door — a dangerous guessing game with millions of jobs on the line.
              </span>
              <a data-linktext="Quartz’s Alex Daniel has more on ADP’s big miss — and why it matters more than usual." data-linktype="Normal" style="color:#168DD9;text-decoration:none;font-size:20px;" target="_blank">
               Quartz’s Alex Daniel has more on ADP’s big miss — and why it matters more than usual.
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