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   Daily 2025-12-04
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   Plus, why international investors ditched India | Your Daily Brief is ready |
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               Thu, Dec 4 | 3:15 read time
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                     WHAT'S
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                       All metrics are as of the latest market close.
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                 <td style="vertical-align:top;padding:0;">
                  <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" role="presentation" style="" width="100%">
                   <tbody>
                    <tr>
                     <td align="left" style="font-size:0px;padding:0;word-break:break-word;">
                      <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="color:#000000;font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:13px;line-height:22px;table-layout:auto;width:100%;border:none;" width="100%">
                       <tbody>
                        <tr>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;font-weight:700;width:40%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          S&amp;P 500
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;color:#16B166;font-weight:500;font-family:Trispace,monospace;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          0.31% ▲
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;text-align:right;padding:10px 0 0 0;font-family:Trispace,monospace">
                          6,851
                         </td>
                        </tr>
                        <tr>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;font-weight:700;width:40%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          GOLD
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;color:#16B166;font-weight:500;font-family:Trispace,monospace;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          0.46% ▲
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;text-align:right;padding:10px 0 0 0;font-family:Trispace,monospace">
                          $4,240
                         </td>
                        </tr>
                        <tr>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;font-weight:700;width:40%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          BITCOIN
                         </td>
                         <td colspan="2" style="font-size:12px;color:#4C5469;font-weight:400;font-family:Trispace,monospace;width:60%;vertical-align:baseline;text-align:right;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          scroll down for info
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                         <td style="font-size:12px;font-weight:700;width:40%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          FTSE 100
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;color:#EA3459;font-weight:500;font-family:Trispace,monospace;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          0.10% ▼
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;text-align:right;padding:10px 0 0 0;font-family:Trispace,monospace">
                          9,692
                         </td>
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                         <td style="font-size:12px;font-weight:700;width:40%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          BRENT OIL
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;color:#16B166;font-weight:500;font-family:Trispace,monospace;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          0.59% ▲
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;text-align:right;padding:10px 0 0 0;font-family:Trispace,monospace">
                          $62.82
                         </td>
                        </tr>
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                         <td style="font-size:12px;font-weight:700;width:40%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          US BONDS*
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;color:#16B166;font-weight:500;font-family:Trispace,monospace;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;padding:10px 0 0 0">
                          0.00% ▼
                         </td>
                         <td style="font-size:12px;width:30%;vertical-align:baseline;text-align:right;padding:10px 0 0 0;font-family:Trispace,monospace">
                          4.09%
                         </td>
                        </tr>
                        <tr>
                         <td colspan="3" style="font-size:10px;font-family:Trispace,monospace;color:#7F879C;padding:0">
                          *10-year government yield
                         </td>
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                 <div style="font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-weight:700;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;color:#181c25;">
                  WALL STREET FEAR GAUGE INDEX 
(
                  <a style="font-weight:400;font-family:Trispace,monospace">
                   VIX
                  </a>
                  )
                 </div>
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                     <img alt="Wall Street Fear Gauge Index" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fimages.bannerbear.com%252Fdirect%252F7Q4rjJzQn7vZo8qPOx%252Frequests%252F000%252F117%252F976%252F128%252FXwJBnmPj46wpBRPqQvLqob2xG%252F095d386f541e6b074fba4dc4daaacd19afde1362.png%253Ffit%253Dclip%2526h%253DNone%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D768%2526s%253Db24ebe7fe3ffd43298f3e704c2e4a3af/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjQ4MzU1MDYuNDE0NDcxfQ:1vR4Ko:gTMiFoOh3yXroLBmrAnjDT11qI4MTi0ejCUJV726E-k" style="border:0;display:block;outline:none;text-decoration:none;height:auto;width:100%;font-size:13px;" width="536"/>
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                      <div style="font-family:Inter,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:1.5;text-align:left;color:#000000;">
                       <p data-block-key="10zqs">
                        🟢 AI startup Anthropic started preparing to go public – and the debut will test investors' nerves
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="464gi">
                        🔴 Indian
stocks had their weakest showing against other emerging markets since 1993
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="7dle3">
                        ➕ A "K-shaped economy" – and how to invest in it
                       </p>
                       <p data-block-key="65npq">
                        <b>
                         👇 Keep reading to find out more
                        </b>
                       </p>
                      </div>
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                    <span style="font-style:normal">
                     👀
                    </span>
                    <span style="font-style:italic">
                     Today's headlines
                    </span>
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                   <mj-raw>
                    <span style="background-color:#EFFF0D;display:inline">
                     Ay, IPO
                    </span>
                   </mj-raw>
                  </div>
                 </td>
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                      <a target="_blank">
                       <img alt="Ay, IPO" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FEditorial-031225-IPO.original.png%253Ffit%253Dcrop%2526h%253D600%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D1200%2526s%253D05de2647062995478e09e0a326b0e72f/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjQ4MzU1MDYuNDE0Njk3fQ:1vR4Ko:RSh88m6LXK5Owrl7u2ItQnDuCl-WHyowxAkTcilNj38" style="border:0;display:block;outline:none;text-decoration:none;height:auto;width:100%;font-size:13px;" width="568"/>
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                   <p data-block-key="lfdwo">
                    <b>
                     What’s going on here?
                    </b>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="afggm">
                    Anthropic – the AI lab behind chatbot Claude – hired a major Silicon Valley law firm to prepare for one of the biggest initial public offerings (IPOs) in history.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="dk0g0">
                    <b>
                     What does this mean?
                    </b>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="34oi6">
                    Anthropic makes a lot of revenue: it’s on track to bring in around $7 billion a year, up from less than $100 million eighteen months ago. But it
                    <i>
                     spends
                    </i>
                    plenty, too. The startup still isn’t profitable, and the speculative nature of AI makes it anyone’s guess when – or if – that’ll change.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="473k3">
                    ▶ So yep, Anthropic’s IPO might be risky. And revealing, too: this IPO would
force one of the leading AI labs to spread open its books for the first time, exposing the true economics of model building.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="bms83">
                    ▶ But it could also square Anthropic’s standing at the top of the AI field, likely push its valuation beyond $300 billion, and set it in even more direct competition with OpenAI – which is quietly preparing for its own debut.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="9cl9f">
                    <b>
                     Why should I care?
                    </b>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="51u60">
                    <b>
                     <i>
                      For markets:
                     </i>
                    </b>
                    <i>
                     So,
you say you’re an AI investor?
                    </i>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="du46u">
                    So far, the biggest AI opportunities have come with some cushion. Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are gigantic businesses with enough profit to
                    <i>
                     somewhat
                    </i>
                    justify their hulking valuations. But not Anthropic: it burns cash faster than you can say “Claude”, and its business model hasn’t been tested at scale.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="b1cr8">
                    ▶ So this IPO will reveal whether investors are willing to actually put their money
where their mouths are – or whether their enthusiasm is reserved for the giants already making money from the boom.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="8a8h3">
                    <b>
                     <i>
                      Zooming out:
                     </i>
                    </b>
                    <i>
                     Keep yourselves to yourselves.
                    </i>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="6m58m">
                    Back in the dot-com era, unprofitable companies rushed onto public markets – often before they even had customers. Today’s AI startups are doing the opposite. Firms like OpenAI, Cohere, Mistral, and xAI have taken their time and enjoyed their privacy. That’s
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lower end of the spectrum have been seeing theirs fall.
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                     Today's headlines
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                     Mum-Bye
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                      <a target="_blank">
                       <img alt="Mum-Bye" height="auto" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Ffinimize-img.imgix.net%252Fhttps%253A%252F%252Fchivas-assets.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%252Fstatic%252Fimages%252FEditorial-031225-India.original.jpg%253Ffit%253Dcrop%2526h%253D600%2526ixlib%253Dpython-3.1.2%2526w%253D1200%2526s%253D2e56ed27ec34c546545d35ece37f0670/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZmaW5pbWl6ZS1pbSIsInRpbWUiOjE3NjQ4MzU1MDYuNDE1NjQyM30:1vR4Ko:VIAZmD16oNbcJDvJlPiX_Vl-QsAqC8fdwAaLoLsZbuo" style="border:0;display:block;outline:none;text-decoration:none;height:auto;width:100%;font-size:13px;" width="568"/>
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                   <p data-block-key="sik8u">
                    <b>
                     What’s going on here?
                    </b>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="791js">
                    Indian stocks delivered their worst performance against other emerging markets in three decades this year, as international investors swapped rupees for robots.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="adejt">
                    <b>
                     What does this mean?
                    </b>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="befsq">
                    The MSCI India index is up 2.5% in US dollar terms this year. That’s not
                    <i>
                     horrible
                    </i>
                    – leaving it only slightly below last year’s peak – but it’s well below the MSCI Emerging Markets index’s 27.7% uptick.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="7d3jo">
                    ▶ Investors in India are still making monthly stock investments, even pushing the Nifty 50 index – which tracks the country’s 50 biggest firms – to record highs. But
investors outside the country have pulled more than $16 billion
                    <i>
                     out
                    </i>
                    of Indian shares this year, marking one of the biggest retreats after years of buying in.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="c68mo">
                    ▶ Instead, they’ve backed Chinese and South Korean markets, tempted by AI and chip stocks.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="4cdt7">
                    ▶ Makes sense: part of the reason for India’s underperformance is the rupee falling about 5% against the dollar this year – the weakest showing of any major Asian currency.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="e1vsg">
                    <b>
                     Why should I care?
                    </b>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="b7tvq">
                    <b>
                     <i>
                      Zooming out:
                     </i>
                    </b>
                    <i>
                     A rate of nots.
                    </i>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="8vs4t">
                    Analysts have trimmed their Nifty 50 profit forecasts throughout the year. See, even though inflation’s at its lowest point in over a decade, the central bank has kept interest rates at 5.5%, leaving the country’s real borrowing costs (adjusted for inflation) unusually high. Combine that with the delayed impact of last year’s government
spending cuts, and the famously fast economy is slowing down.
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="15eu6">
                    <b>
                     <i>
                      The bigger picture:
                     </i>
                    </b>
                    <i>
                     India’s playing the long game.
                    </i>
                   </p>
                   <p data-block-key="61g4t">
                    All that said, India still has one of the strongest setups of all emerging markets: a young and expanding workforce, rising consumption, rapid digitization, and steady economic growth. Those forces might not move markets by the month – but they
                    <i>
                     do
                    </i>
                    dictate where long-term capital flows. So sure,
many investors switched their focus this year… But India’s fundamentals haven’t changed – and over a multi-year period, that’s what matters most.
                   </p>
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                    <span style="font-style:normal">
                     🖋️
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                     Quote
of the day
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                   <strong>
                    "Whenever you do a thing, act as if all the world were watching."
                   </strong>
                   — Thomas Jefferson (an American Founding Father and the third US president)
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              Stay classy,
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              😉 This issue of the Daily Brief was curated by
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              ,
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              , and
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               Theodora
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              .
Got an idea? A question?
              <a>
               Get in touch
              </a>
              .
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