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   Climate Fwd: It’s time for COP26. Here’s where we stand.
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   Earth is still on track for dangerous warming unless efforts accelerate at climate talks.
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             October 27, 2021
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             We’re also covering
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              national security threats
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             from global warming,
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              Australia’s defiant inaction
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             on climate, and more.
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             It’s time for COP26. Here’s where we stand.
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             By
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              Brad Plumer
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             With a pivotal United Nations climate summit in Glasgow set to begin this weekend, there’s been a barrage of new research looking at how much progress the world is actually making in the fight against climate change. And that data offers reason for both hope and alarm.
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             Continue reading the main story
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             There’s some good news, as I explain with my colleague Nadja Popovich
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              in this recent article
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             : Over the past decade, the world’s nations have slowly started bending the curve of future emissions downward, thanks to the rapid rise of clean energy.
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             But the bad news is that those efforts still aren’t nearly enough to avoid a dangerous rise in global temperatures in the years ahead. And it will take a herculean effort by governments and businesses to shift course.
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              The numbers:
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             In 2014, the world was on pace for about 4 degrees Celsius, or about 7 degrees Fahrenheit, of global warming, according to data from the Climate Action Tracker. Things are slowly improving: Current policies now put the world on track for a bit less than 3 degrees C, and some of the most ambitious promises by countries to zero out their emissions could keep us at around 2 degrees C.
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              The catch:
             </span>
             That assumes nations will actually follow through on their lofty climate pledges, which is far from assured. And scientists increasingly say that even 2 degrees Celsius is too risky and that we should aim for a lower limit of 1.5 degrees. (The world has already warmed 1 degree since preindustrial times.)
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              Quotable:
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             “The pathway is extremely narrow,” said Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency. “We really don’t have much time left to shift course.”
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              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               The latest
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                national climate plans still fall far short
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               , a United Nations report warned this week.
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               What exactly is COP26? Here are
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                some key facts
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               .
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             Speaking of Glasgow, you can join us there
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             As world leaders meet at COP26, The Times will host the Climate Hub, a forum featuring Greta Thunberg, Al Gore and others. You can participate, either in person or online.
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              Tickets are available here
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             . (Climate Fwd: newsletter subscribers can use code CF-50 to save 50 percent on in-person events.)
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                  The midnight sun shining over sea ice in the Northwest Passage in the Canadian Arctic in 2017.
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             Warming poses a widening security threat
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             The Biden administration issued several reports last week about climate change and national security, laying out in stark terms the ways in which our warming planet is beginning to significantly challenge stability worldwide. The reports signal a new stage in United States policy, one that places climate change at the center of the country’s security planning.
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             Among the key points:
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              From bad to worse in the Middle East and North Africa:
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             Countries like Iraq and Algeria could be hit by lost revenue from fossil fuels, even as their region faces worsening heat and drought.
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              More trouble close to home:
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             Intelligence agencies identified 11 countries as being particularly exposed to the effects of climate change — including four countries near the United States, among them Guatemala and Haiti.
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             Climate change poses
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              an ‘emerging threat’ to the global financial system
             </a>
             .
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             Looking ahead: Oil executives to testify on disinformation
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             The heads of Exxon Mobil, Shell, Chevron and BP will be on Capitol Hill on Thursday, where they’ll face questions about
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              industry efforts to hinder action on climate change
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             .
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              deprive fossil fuel companies of financial capital
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             Frank Herbert’s science-fiction epic was
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              prescient about climate change
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             . You can thank a Native American tribe, Daniel Immerwahr writes.
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                <img class="css-zh06no e1e3sevz0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2021%252F10%252F22%252Fclimate%252F22cli-noaa%252Fmerlin_193178853_c13c61aa-0925-4306-92b5-2ab61722560a-articleLarge.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1mfl7z:gr8_JIMXazMplhhskn2R0J47S6DgaW62I93MmrOKgDQ" style="display:block;width:100%;height:auto;padding-top:10px"/>
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                <span>
                 <span class="css-atnqj9 esd8w5v2" style="margin:0;font:normal 14px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  A dry irrigation canal in Casa Grande, Ariz., in July.
                 </span>
                 <span class="css-hpkdsj esd8w5v3" style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  Darryl Webb/Associated Press
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            <h2 style="color:#000;font:400 25px/32.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             La Niña will probably prolong the Western drought
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="font:13px/18px arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:.2px;color:#000;margin-bottom:0;font:600 13px/18px arial,sans-serif">
             By
             <!-- -->
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             It’s déjà vu all over again in the equatorial Pacific Ocean: With sea-surface temperatures there falling below normal, the climate pattern known as La Niña has developed for the second year in a row.
            </p>
           </td>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Like its opposite, El Niño, La Niña causes changes to the jet stream, shifting the location of these high-altitude winds. That can affect weather in parts of the world. In the United States, La Niña usually means warmer and drier conditions across the South.
            </p>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Warmer and drier — sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Much of the West and Southwest has been warmer and drier for months, even years, gripped by a severe drought. Even the
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              extreme rains
             </a>
             that hit California this week barely improved the situation in the state.
            </p>
           </td>
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        </table>
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       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Given the development of La Niña, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration late last week
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              issued their outlook for the winter
             </a>
             , and, not surprisingly, they expect the drought to continue and even spread into some areas in the Southern Plains. But they took pains to point out that La Niña sometimes surprises by not producing the expected effects.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
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            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
              On the bright side:
             </span>
             La Niña also usually brings wetter conditions to the Pacific Northwest. If that holds true, NOAA forecasters said, the drought in that region should improve, and in some coastal areas end entirely.
            </p>
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               Here’s
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                a guide to El Niño and La Niña
               </a>
               , including the basic science and how they got their names.
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
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           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <h2 style="color:#000;font:400 25px/32.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             Also important this week:
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="padding:0 0 5px">
            <ul class="css-vhya8o e1darl2c0" style="color:#333;font:10px georgia,serif;text-align:left;padding-left:50px">
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               After
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
                losing the centerpiece of his climate agenda
               </span>
               , President Biden has come up with a Plan B:
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                tax credits, regulation and state action
               </a>
               .
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               Global warming poses
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
                grave dangers around the world
               </span>
               , but for one tiny Russian town on the Arctic Ocean, it’s become a
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                ticket to prosperity
               </a>
               .
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               As the
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
                risks of climate change rise
               </span>
               , investors are seeking
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                greener buildings
               </a>
               .
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
                Coal mining stocks
               </span>
               are generating astonishing returns,
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                even as the planet warms
               </a>
               .
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
                Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
               </span>
               , a climate scientist who pioneered ways to help the public see the influence of climate change in extreme weather disasters,
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                has died at 59
               </a>
               .
              </span>
             </li>
             <li class="css-11scvta e1y8brq21" style="line-height:27.5px;margin:0 0 10px 0">
              <span style="font-size:17px;line-height:25px;vertical-align:middle">
               <span style="font-weight:700;font-size:inherit">
                Diane Weyermann
               </span>
               , an executive who championed “An Inconvenient Truth,”
               <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
                has died at 66
               </a>
               .
              </span>
             </li>
            </ul>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="padding-bottom:15px">
           </td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
           <td style="padding-bottom:15px;border-top:1px solid #dcdcdc">
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <h3 style="margin:0 0 10px;font:400 20px/27.5px georgia,serif;color:#000">
             And finally:
            </h3>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <h2 style="color:#000;font:400 25px/32.5px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 10px">
             In Australia, it’s ‘long live king coal’
            </h2>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-spacing:0;font-family:arial,sans-serif;color:#333;padding:0;background:#fff" width="100%">
             <tbody>
              <tr>
               <td style="width:100%;padding:0;line-height:1" width="100%">
                <img class="css-zh06no e1e3sevz0" src="https://inboxflows.com/_/image/https%253A%252F%252Fstatic01.nyt.com%252Fimages%252F2021%252F10%252F20%252Fworld%252F00oz-emissions1%252Fmerlin_124578035_d6511dec-811a-48aa-813b-6458a8e4a5ec-articleLarge.jpg/?inbox_flows_img_sig=eyJwYXRoIjoiaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZzdGF0aWMwMS5ueSJ9:1mfl7z:gr8_JIMXazMplhhskn2R0J47S6DgaW62I93MmrOKgDQ" style="display:block;width:100%;height:auto;padding-top:10px"/>
               </td>
              </tr>
              <tr>
               <td align="left" class="css-1ukdnh3 esd8w5v1" style="text-align:left;width:100%;padding-top:8px;padding-bottom:15px;line-height:14px" width="100%">
                <span>
                 <span class="css-atnqj9 esd8w5v2" style="margin:0;font:normal 14px georgia,serif;color:#666">
                  The Collinsville coal mine in Queensland, Australia. The country is the world’s largest coal exporter.
                 </span>
                 <span class="css-hpkdsj esd8w5v3" style="margin:0;font:normal 11px georgia,serif;padding-left:5px;color:#888;letter-spacing:.01em">
                  David Maurice Smith for The New York Times
                 </span>
                </span>
               </td>
              </tr>
             </tbody>
            </table>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td style="padding:0 0 15px;vertical-align:middle" valign="middle">
            <p style="font:13px/18px arial,sans-serif;letter-spacing:.2px;color:#000;margin-bottom:0;font:600 13px/18px arial,sans-serif">
             By
             <!-- -->
             <!-- -->
             Damien Cave
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             With just a few days to go before a crucial United Nations climate conference, Australia this week promised to reach net zero emissions by 2050. But the plan,
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              built mostly on hope and emerging technologies
             </a>
             , largely disappointed analysts.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             “This is an update on the marketing materials used by the federal government to claim it’s doing something when it’s really doing nothing new,” said Richie Merzian, the climate and energy director at the Australian Institute, a research organization. “It’s kind of ridiculous.”
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             The announcement did not include any toughening of emissions targets for 2030 — something that scientists have said will be needed from world leaders at the climate summit, which opens this weekend in Glasgow.
            </p>
           </td>
          </tr>
         </tbody>
        </table>
       </div>
       <div style="margin:0 auto;max-width:600px;width:100%">
        <table cellpadding="0" width="100%">
         <tbody>
          <tr>
           <td align="left">
            <p style="color:#333;font:normal 17px/25px georgia,serif;margin:0 0 15px">
             Australia’s defiant inaction is already affecting the country’s image. As I wrote in
             <a class="css-5nb5nb et1n85g0" style="color:#286ed0;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-family:inherit;font-size:inherit">
              a news analysis
             </a>
             , at a time when coal is being treated more like tobacco, as a danger wherever it’s burned, Australia increasingly looks like the guy at the end of the bar selling cheap cigarettes and promising to bring more tomorrow.
            </p>
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